Utah - I think there is a "tipping point" with MAGA evil that causes a mass shift of "mainstream" LDS (who mostly think like The Bulwark never-Trumpers) into our coalition. They already test left on a policy level to where the GOP is currently (sorry, can't recall where I heard that, might have been a David French podcast).
South Carolina - Lots of "normie" Republicans here. Room for growth upstate and in the Charlotte suburbs. You just have to get a critical mass of people past their "social taboo" of voting Dem (my parents viewed that first-hand when they asked for D ballots the first time they voted in Summerville, SC - Charleston 'burbs). Being geographically in between NC and GA also connects some dots in my head, in ways I can't fully verbalize.
Slight update - I also characterize UT and SC as states where people mostly come off as friendly, in ways that don't apply to, say, Florida. Or even Texas.
No question I think the argument for #s 1 and 2 is much stronger. I am just trying to find different ways of looking at state demographics, for plausible "coalition" mindsets.
Hopefully some people smarter and more connected than me are also doing this.
UT residents are indeed friendly but very much conservative. Ideologically, unless weтАЩre talking Salt Lake City or Salt Lake County, all else of UT hasnтАЩt really changed that much over the years besides non-white demographics. Even with this, non-white Utahns can still be conservative, even socially.
Urban areas need to explode in population that favors voters who are transplants or itтАЩs going to be hard for UT to move closer to the blue column. You have most of the state that is rural, which adds to the problems as well.
Living in SC, I just don't see the state being worth much investment for Dems. You can ungerrymander it by initiative. The Upstate is Wyoming-level red. The 42-44% floor looks enticing, but it's a mirage. The normie GOPs, who do tend to run the state, couldn't even get Tom Rice into a runoff in a 5 person primary after he voted to impeach Trump, and that was in relatively less right coastal/peedee area. We sunj a ton of cash into Jamie Harrison's run against Graham, who is not beloved, and it wasn't really close.
I don't know much about SC but it would be helpful to at least grow the Democratic Party's presence locally first, even in red areas outside of say SC-06 which Jim Clyburn represents.
SC-01 could be a good Congressional District by which Democrats can organize in.
I don't disagree, and if you could build up the Ds in Charleston then it would be harder gerrymander to the present 6-1 split we have now. But we had a lawsuit like the Alabama one about gerrymandering specifically on racial packing Clyburn's district that went no where. CD01 is Nancy Mace and her district was made redder after she beat Joe Cunningham. Plus the state level is badly titled too.
I just think there are better places to spend money than SC.
Agreed on investment being better spent in other states. I'd only selectively focus on SC for the exact reasons I mentioned but yes, definitely want to aim where the traction is the most.
AZ, GA and TX represent room for growth for Democrats as do AK and KS.
1) Kansas
2) Alaska
3) Utah
4) Nebraska
5) South Carolina
Curious about your thoughts on South Carolina and Utah.
Utah - I think there is a "tipping point" with MAGA evil that causes a mass shift of "mainstream" LDS (who mostly think like The Bulwark never-Trumpers) into our coalition. They already test left on a policy level to where the GOP is currently (sorry, can't recall where I heard that, might have been a David French podcast).
South Carolina - Lots of "normie" Republicans here. Room for growth upstate and in the Charlotte suburbs. You just have to get a critical mass of people past their "social taboo" of voting Dem (my parents viewed that first-hand when they asked for D ballots the first time they voted in Summerville, SC - Charleston 'burbs). Being geographically in between NC and GA also connects some dots in my head, in ways I can't fully verbalize.
Slight update - I also characterize UT and SC as states where people mostly come off as friendly, in ways that don't apply to, say, Florida. Or even Texas.
Thanks for sharing. I'm skeptical they come over in enough numbers but appreciate the solid case for them.
No question I think the argument for #s 1 and 2 is much stronger. I am just trying to find different ways of looking at state demographics, for plausible "coalition" mindsets.
Hopefully some people smarter and more connected than me are also doing this.
My mother and her family grew up in Ogden, UT.
UT residents are indeed friendly but very much conservative. Ideologically, unless weтАЩre talking Salt Lake City or Salt Lake County, all else of UT hasnтАЩt really changed that much over the years besides non-white demographics. Even with this, non-white Utahns can still be conservative, even socially.
Urban areas need to explode in population that favors voters who are transplants or itтАЩs going to be hard for UT to move closer to the blue column. You have most of the state that is rural, which adds to the problems as well.
Living in SC, I just don't see the state being worth much investment for Dems. You can ungerrymander it by initiative. The Upstate is Wyoming-level red. The 42-44% floor looks enticing, but it's a mirage. The normie GOPs, who do tend to run the state, couldn't even get Tom Rice into a runoff in a 5 person primary after he voted to impeach Trump, and that was in relatively less right coastal/peedee area. We sunj a ton of cash into Jamie Harrison's run against Graham, who is not beloved, and it wasn't really close.
I don't know much about SC but it would be helpful to at least grow the Democratic Party's presence locally first, even in red areas outside of say SC-06 which Jim Clyburn represents.
SC-01 could be a good Congressional District by which Democrats can organize in.
Should have been cannot fix by initiative.
I don't disagree, and if you could build up the Ds in Charleston then it would be harder gerrymander to the present 6-1 split we have now. But we had a lawsuit like the Alabama one about gerrymandering specifically on racial packing Clyburn's district that went no where. CD01 is Nancy Mace and her district was made redder after she beat Joe Cunningham. Plus the state level is badly titled too.
I just think there are better places to spend money than SC.
Agreed on investment being better spent in other states. I'd only selectively focus on SC for the exact reasons I mentioned but yes, definitely want to aim where the traction is the most.
AZ, GA and TX represent room for growth for Democrats as do AK and KS.