Here's a question for everyone over the weekend. Most Democrats are assuming (hoping?) that 2026 will be a Democratic wave year, just like 2018 was. In the 2018 House elections, there were a few surprise Democratic pickups that were not competitive in 2016 and that nobody expected to flip (the best examples are SC-01 and OK-05). My quest…
Here's a question for everyone over the weekend. Most Democrats are assuming (hoping?) that 2026 will be a Democratic wave year, just like 2018 was. In the 2018 House elections, there were a few surprise Democratic pickups that were not competitive in 2016 and that nobody expected to flip (the best examples are SC-01 and OK-05). My question is, if 2026 does end up being a Democratic wave, then what are some of our guesses for surprise Democratic flips this time that weren't competitive in this year's elections?
I anticipate IA will have 1-2 surprise pickups in the House for Democrats depending on the political environment heading to the 2026 midterms. Democrats could pick up two House seats in the state that were close in the 2024 elections and possibly get 1-2 more. IA-04 used to be closer as when Steve King was still in the House and went more nuts.
I think IA-01 and 3 are both decent targets, but both have been close/competitive enough that they wouldn't really be surprises. IA-02 is a possible surprise, and 4 is probably impossible since GOP primary voters yeeted King in 2020.
CO-05 if the floor really falls out in El Paso county. It was actually the best performing district for Republicans (55-41), Bobert slightly underperformed that in the 4th (54-42).
El Paso county actually moved Dem at the top of the ticket Boberts personal baggage is the only reason it was a 12 point race instead of 22. don’t see a path to victory there it’s essentially West Kansas which is why she moved over there in the first place and certain it was Trumps best seat in the state.
It’s actually mostly outer Denver suburbs. Douglas County which is very educated also shifted left and that’s about half the seat. The rural areas is only about a quarter of the seat and the rest are the other exurbs around Loveland.
Yeah have to win Douglas by 15ish along with the slices of Larimer and Arapahoe by 15+, probably more as I don't think the rural areas will uniformly swing with those three.
I wanted to hear what districts others here had in mind before chiming in with my own. One district that definitely comes to my mind here is VA-01. As Mark mentioned above, the Richmond suburbs continue to trend Democratic - Harris +9 in Chesterfield is amazing, and Henrico would've swung Democratic as well if not for the turnout drop among African-Americans. The district also contains James City, which continues to trend Democratic, and even Hanover isn't quite as red as it once was. If the Dem could get solid margins out of Henrico, Chesterfield, James City, and Williamsburg, those areas might be able to outvote the rural counties of the Northern Neck and Middle Peninsula. After all, the suburban areas in Henrico and Chesterfield are the same areas that helped Abigail Spanberger defeat Dave Brat in 2018.
Oops, I didn't see this comment before posting mine. I think a surprise pickup could also come from TX-24 or one of the other districts mentioned in this thread on DKE:
Yeah, the 24th, along with the 38th, are pretty much the only Republican-held districts in Texas that don't include any deep-red rural counties to make them redder. I agree that Dems have a bright future in both of them.
One possibility is VA-01, especially if Republican support in the western suburbs of Richmond continues to erode. I could also see us winning VA-02 in 2026, but I wouldn't categorize that as a surprise flip that would come out of nowhere.
Here's a question for everyone over the weekend. Most Democrats are assuming (hoping?) that 2026 will be a Democratic wave year, just like 2018 was. In the 2018 House elections, there were a few surprise Democratic pickups that were not competitive in 2016 and that nobody expected to flip (the best examples are SC-01 and OK-05). My question is, if 2026 does end up being a Democratic wave, then what are some of our guesses for surprise Democratic flips this time that weren't competitive in this year's elections?
I anticipate IA will have 1-2 surprise pickups in the House for Democrats depending on the political environment heading to the 2026 midterms. Democrats could pick up two House seats in the state that were close in the 2024 elections and possibly get 1-2 more. IA-04 used to be closer as when Steve King was still in the House and went more nuts.
I think IA-01 and 3 are both decent targets, but both have been close/competitive enough that they wouldn't really be surprises. IA-02 is a possible surprise, and 4 is probably impossible since GOP primary voters yeeted King in 2020.
Miller-Meeks & Nunn should really be sitting ducks if 2026 is anything like 2006 or 2018!! 💙🇺🇲
Wouldn’t call beating Miller-Meeks and Nunn a “surprise pickup”. Hinson though, sure.
Right but the races that Democrats nearly won aren't what I'm referring to as surprise pickups.
IA-04 would be the biggest surprise pickup as it's the reddest House district in the state.
CO-05 if the floor really falls out in El Paso county. It was actually the best performing district for Republicans (55-41), Bobert slightly underperformed that in the 4th (54-42).
I think Boebert’s seat is a better target honestly given she won by less. Crank is pretty uncontroversial.
El Paso county actually moved Dem at the top of the ticket Boberts personal baggage is the only reason it was a 12 point race instead of 22. don’t see a path to victory there it’s essentially West Kansas which is why she moved over there in the first place and certain it was Trumps best seat in the state.
It’s actually mostly outer Denver suburbs. Douglas County which is very educated also shifted left and that’s about half the seat. The rural areas is only about a quarter of the seat and the rest are the other exurbs around Loveland.
The Dem would have to win Douglas by a substantial margin to offset the rurals and Weld County.
There’s also the Larimer portion.
Yeah have to win Douglas by 15ish along with the slices of Larimer and Arapahoe by 15+, probably more as I don't think the rural areas will uniformly swing with those three.
I wanted to hear what districts others here had in mind before chiming in with my own. One district that definitely comes to my mind here is VA-01. As Mark mentioned above, the Richmond suburbs continue to trend Democratic - Harris +9 in Chesterfield is amazing, and Henrico would've swung Democratic as well if not for the turnout drop among African-Americans. The district also contains James City, which continues to trend Democratic, and even Hanover isn't quite as red as it once was. If the Dem could get solid margins out of Henrico, Chesterfield, James City, and Williamsburg, those areas might be able to outvote the rural counties of the Northern Neck and Middle Peninsula. After all, the suburban areas in Henrico and Chesterfield are the same areas that helped Abigail Spanberger defeat Dave Brat in 2018.
Oops, I didn't see this comment before posting mine. I think a surprise pickup could also come from TX-24 or one of the other districts mentioned in this thread on DKE:
https://www.dailykos.com/comments/2137503/85046750#comment_85046750
Yeah, the 24th, along with the 38th, are pretty much the only Republican-held districts in Texas that don't include any deep-red rural counties to make them redder. I agree that Dems have a bright future in both of them.
One possibility is VA-01, especially if Republican support in the western suburbs of Richmond continues to erode. I could also see us winning VA-02 in 2026, but I wouldn't categorize that as a surprise flip that would come out of nowhere.
Great minds think alike!