Now that we're a month out from the election, I'm curious what peoples' thoughts are on which counties will flip at the presidential level this year. In 2020, there were 555 Biden counties and 2588 Trump counties, ranging from Kalawao County, HI (23-1 Biden) to Roberts County, TX (529-17 Trump). (County meaning county-equivalent througho…
Now that we're a month out from the election, I'm curious what peoples' thoughts are on which counties will flip at the presidential level this year. In 2020, there were 555 Biden counties and 2588 Trump counties, ranging from Kalawao County, HI (23-1 Biden) to Roberts County, TX (529-17 Trump). (County meaning county-equivalent throughout this thread.) Adjusting for counties that were eliminated in 2013 and added in 2019, we have 473 Obama-Clinton-Biden, 17 Romney-Clinton-Biden, 30 Obama-Trump-Biden, 35 Romney-Trump-Biden, 15 Obama-Clinton-Trump, 1 Romney-Clinton-Trump, 191 Obama-Trump-Trump, and 2380 Romney-Trump-Trump counties. That makes for a total of 18 Romney-Clinton and 221 Obama-Trump flips, then 65 Trump-Biden and 16 Clinton-Trump flips. There are 69 Trump and 64 Biden counties that flip under at least one of four scenarios: direct trends from 2016 to 2020 via 2-party % and raw vote, and 3/2 trends from 2012 to 2020 via 2-party % and raw vote. Those 69 Trump counties cast 7.2 million votes in 2020 and the 64 Biden Counties cast 4.5 million; counties projected to flip by median projection cast 4.3 million and 2.0 million, although the latter would drop to 2.1 million if Harris can retain Pinellas and Stanislaus, whose projected flips are by less than 0.3%. A few notes: some COVID migration patterns have stopped or reversed, potentially reducing the leftward trend of some beautiful but not commuter-friendly counties; some of what Trump did should be near-impossible to duplicate (e.g. in Biden's worst-performance county by %-trend, Starr County, TX, Biden nearly matched Hillary's vote total, but Trump added 6k to his, more than tripling his previous vote total; I suspect he'll flip the county, but not by near as much as trendlines would indicate).
Below I've listed out those counties by the median projected 2-party%, along with the number of scenarios under which it flips, the 2020 2-party margin with the projection, the number of votes it cast in 2020, and the last year that it voted the other way presidentially.
Now that we're a month out from the election, I'm curious what peoples' thoughts are on which counties will flip at the presidential level this year. In 2020, there were 555 Biden counties and 2588 Trump counties, ranging from Kalawao County, HI (23-1 Biden) to Roberts County, TX (529-17 Trump). (County meaning county-equivalent throughout this thread.) Adjusting for counties that were eliminated in 2013 and added in 2019, we have 473 Obama-Clinton-Biden, 17 Romney-Clinton-Biden, 30 Obama-Trump-Biden, 35 Romney-Trump-Biden, 15 Obama-Clinton-Trump, 1 Romney-Clinton-Trump, 191 Obama-Trump-Trump, and 2380 Romney-Trump-Trump counties. That makes for a total of 18 Romney-Clinton and 221 Obama-Trump flips, then 65 Trump-Biden and 16 Clinton-Trump flips. There are 69 Trump and 64 Biden counties that flip under at least one of four scenarios: direct trends from 2016 to 2020 via 2-party % and raw vote, and 3/2 trends from 2012 to 2020 via 2-party % and raw vote. Those 69 Trump counties cast 7.2 million votes in 2020 and the 64 Biden Counties cast 4.5 million; counties projected to flip by median projection cast 4.3 million and 2.0 million, although the latter would drop to 2.1 million if Harris can retain Pinellas and Stanislaus, whose projected flips are by less than 0.3%. A few notes: some COVID migration patterns have stopped or reversed, potentially reducing the leftward trend of some beautiful but not commuter-friendly counties; some of what Trump did should be near-impossible to duplicate (e.g. in Biden's worst-performance county by %-trend, Starr County, TX, Biden nearly matched Hillary's vote total, but Trump added 6k to his, more than tripling his previous vote total; I suspect he'll flip the county, but not by near as much as trendlines would indicate).
Below I've listed out those counties by the median projected 2-party%, along with the number of scenarios under which it flips, the 2020 2-party margin with the projection, the number of votes it cast in 2020, and the last year that it voted the other way presidentially.
Trump counties:
Oklahoma, OK (Oklahoma City): 4, 49.4%→53.4%, 295k, 1964
Collin, TX (DFW burbs): 4, 47.8%→52.9%, 491k, 1964
Hamilton, IN (Indy burbs): 4, 46.5%→52.2%, 194k, 1912
Monongalia, WV (Morgantown): 4, 49.4%→52.1%, 42k, 2008
Fayette, GA (Atlanta burbs): 4, 46.6%→52.0%, 72k, 1976
Grand, CO (Western Slope): 4, 49.1%→52.0%, 10k, 1964
Ontario, NY (Rochester burbs): 4, 49.99%→51.6%, 60k, 1996
Platte, MO (KC burbs): 4, 48.5%→51.5%, 57k, 1992
Grand Traverse, MI (Traverse City): 4, 48.5%→51.3%, 60k, 1964
Warren, NY (Albany burbs): 2, 49.9%→51.2%, 36k, 2012
Hunterdon, NJ (NYC burbs): 4, 47.8%→51.2%, 84k, 1964
Dallas, IA (Des Moines burbs): 4, 49.0%→51.2%, 56k, 1996
Wicomico, MD (Salisbury): 2, 49.0%→51.1%, 46k, 1964
Suffolk, NY (NYC burbs): 2, 49.98%→51.0%, 772k, 2012
Carver, MN (MSP burbs): 4, 47.5%→51.0%, 66k, 1932
Anoka, MN (MSP burbs): 2, 49.0%→50.6%, 211k, 1996
Douglas, CO (Denver burbs): 3, 46.3%→50.6%, 232k, 1964
Denton, TX (DFW burbs): 2, 45.9%→50.6%, 418k, 1964
York, VA (Newport News burbs): 3, 46.6%→50.5%, 39k, 1964
McHenry, IL (Chicago burbs): 3, 48.7%→50.5%, 164k, 2008
Orange, NY (NYC burbs): 2, 49.9%→50.4%, 172k, 2012
Cass, ND (Fargo): 2, 48.6%→50.3%, 86k, 2008
Washington, AR (Fayetteville): 3, 48.0%→50.3%, 94k, 1996
Polk, OR (Salem burbs): 2, 49.1%→50.3%, 48k, 1964
Delaware, OH (Columbus burbs): 2, 46.5%→50.2%, 126k, 1916
Franklin, KY (Frankfort): 2, 49.5%→50.1%, 26k, 2012
Monmouth, NJ (Jersey Shore): 2, 48.6%→50.1%, 378k, 2000
Calvert, MD (DC burbs): 2, 47.1%→49.99%, 49k, 1976
Eaton, MI (Lansing burbs): 2, 49.6%→49.97%, 64k, 2012
Clay, MO (KC burbs): 2, 47.9%→49.8%, 127k, 2000
Ada, ID (Boise): 1, 48.0%→49.8%, 260k, 1936
Rice, MN (Faribault): 2, 49.9%→49.6%, 36k, 2012
Sangamon, IL (Springfield): 1, 47.8%→49.4%, 105k, 2008
Jackson, OR (Medford): 2, 48.2%→49.4%, 127k, 2008
Lancaster, VA (Northern Neck): 1, 47.7%→49.3%, 7k, 1948
Waynesboro, VA (Shenandoah Valley): 1, 47.4%→49.3%, 11k, 1964
San Juan, UT (Reservation): 1, 46.8%→49.3%, 7k, 1936
Scott, MN (MSP burbs): 1, 46.6%→49.3%, 88k, 1996
Tillamook, OR (North Coast): 2, 49.1%→49.2%, 17k, 2012
Pacific, WA (Willapa Hills): 2, 49.4%→49.2%, 14k, 2012
Wasco, OR (The Gorge): 2, 48.4%→49.2%, 14k, 2008
Florence, SC (Florence): 1, 48.9%→49.2%, 65k, 1976
Essex, VA (Middle Peninsula): 2, 49.7%→49.1%, 6k, 2012
Lowndes, MS (Columbus): 2, 48.7%→49.1%, 27k, 1956
Litchfield, CT (Torrington): 2, 47.4%→49.1%, 108k, 2008
Yamhill, OR (Portland burbs): 1, 47.9%→49.0%, 59k, 1964
Spotsylvania, VA (Fredericksburg burbs): 2, 46.5%→48.9%, 75k, 1976
Madison, AL (Huntsville): 1, 45.9%→48.8%, 195k, 1976
Park, MT (Bozeman burbs): 1, 46.7%→48.7%, 12k, 1964
Fluvanna, VA (Charlottesville burbs): 1, 47.6%→48.7%, 16k, 1976
Spokane, WA (Spokane): 1, 47.7%→48.6%, 295k, 1996
Cortland, NY (Cortland): 2, 49.0%→48.6%, 22k, 2012
Androscoggin, ME (Lewiston): 2, 48.5%→48.3%, 59k, 2012
Chelan, WA (Wenatchee): 1, 46.0%→48.3%, 43k, 1964
Cabarrus, NC (Charlotte burbs): 1, 45.2%→48.3%, 117k, 1948
Beltrami, MN (Reservation): 2, 48.4%→48.3%, 24k, 2012
Huerfano, CO (Pueblo burbs): 1, 48.5%→48.1%, 4k, 2012
Corson, SD (Reservation): 2, 49.0%→48.1%, 1k, 2012
Otsego, NY (Cooperstown): 2, 47.4%→48.0%, 28k, 2012
Putnam, NY (NYC burbs): 1, 46.0%→47.9%, 55k, 1964
Trinity, CA (Shasta): 1, 47.2%→47.8%, 6k, 2008
El Paso, CO (Colorado Springs): 1, 44.4%→47.8%, 379k, 1964
Clinton, MI (Lansing burbs): 1, 46.7%→47.8%, 48k, 2008
Roosevelt, MT (Reservation): 2, 48.9%→47.8%, 4k, 2012
Sarpy, NE (Omaha burbs): 1, 44.2%→47.6%, 96k, 1964
Thurston, NE (Reservation): 2, 48.7%→47.5%, 2k, 2012
Mahnomen, MN (Reservation): 2, 49.3%→47.3%, 2k, 2012
Franklin, NY (Plattsburgh burbs): 2, 48.9%→46.8%, 19k, 2012
Sussex, DE (Delaware Beaches): 1, 44.3%→46.4%, 129k, 1996
And the ten closest counties in 2020 without a projected flip scenario:
St. Lucie, FL (Port St. Lucie): 0, 49.2%→48.6%, 172k, 2012
Jefferson, TX (Beaumont): 0, 49.2%→48.6%, 95k, 2012
Columbia, WI (Madison burbs): 0, 49.2%→47.7%, 34k, 2012
Clarendon, SC (Sumter burbs): 0, 49.7%→47.3%, 17k, 2016
Alamosa, CO (San Luis Valley): 0, 49.6%→47.1%, 8k, 2016
Jefferson, IA (Fairfield): 0, 49.3%→47.0%, 9k, 2012
Kleberg, TX (Corpus Christi burbs): 0, 49.1%→46.9%, 11k, 2016
Dillon, SC (Florence burbs): 0, 49.4%→46.6%, 13k, 2016
Burke, GA (Augusta burbs): 0, 49.1%→46.6%, 11k, 2016
Mahoning, OH (Youngstown): 0, 49.0%→43.9%, 119k, 2016
Biden counties:
Starr, TX (RGV): 4, 52.5%→36.9%, 18k, 1892
Duval, TX (Laredo burbs): 4, 51.3%→39.1%, 5k, 1904
Maverick, TX (Eagle Pass): 4, 54.8%→39.5%, 15k, 1928
Culberson, TX (El Paso burbs): 4, 51.3%→43.7%, 1k, 2004
Jim Hogg, TX (RGV): 3, 59.0%→44.0%, 2k, never (est. 1913)
Lee, AR (Memphis burbs): 4, 52.5%→46.0%, 3k, 1972
Brooks, TX (RGV): 3, 59.6%→46.6%, 2k, never (est. 1911)
Willacy, TX (RGV): 4, 56.0%→46.9%, 6k, 1972
Anson, NC (Charlotte burbs): 4, 52.1%→47.2%, 11k, 1972
Miami-Dade, FL (Miami): 3, 53.7%→47.6%, 1157k, 1988
Jasper, SC (Black Belt): 4, 50.4%→47.7%, 14k, 1972
Marshall, MS (Memphis burbs): 4, 51.6%→47.8%, 16k, 1972
Carlton, MN (Duluth burbs): 2, 50.8%→48.0%, 20k, 1928
Pasquotank, NC (Elizabeth City): 4, 50.2%→48.0%, 20k, 1988
Dillingham, AK (Southwest): 4, 53.3%→48.1%, 2k, 2008
Jasper, MS (Black Belt): 4, 50.2%→48.2%, 9k, 2000
Muskegon, MI (Muskegon): 4, 50.3%→48.4%, 92k, 1988
Jackson, IL (Carbondale): 4, 50.7%→48.4%, 23k, 1984
Desha, AR (Black Belt): 4, 51.2%→48.5%, 4k, 1972
Copiah, MS (Jackson burbs): 4, 50.9%→48.9%, 13k, 2004
Saginaw, MI (Saginaw): 2, 50.1%→49.1%, 103k, 2016
Aleutians West, AK (Southwest): 3, 55.1%→49.1%, 1k, 2008
St. Francis, AR (Memphis burbs): 4, 52.6%→49.3%, 7k, 1984
Winona, MN (Winona): 2, 50.2%→49.3%, 27k, 2016
Rockland, NY (NYC burbs): 4, 50.9%→49.3%, 150k, 2004
Marengo, AL (Black Belt): 4, 50.7%→49.4%, 11k, 2004
Sauk, WI (Madison burbs): 2, 50.9%→49.5%, 36k, 2016
Erie, PA (Erie): 2, 50.5%→49.5%, 137k, 2016
Kennebec, ME (Augusta): 2, 50.1%→49.5%, 72k, 2016
Washington, GA (Milledgeville burbs): 2, 50.4%→49.6%, 9k, 2004
Issaquena, MS (Vicksburg burbs): 3, 53.5%→49.7%, 1k, 1984
Pike, MS (Black Belt): 2, 50.5%→49.7%, 17k, 2004
Pinellas, FL (St. Pete): 2, 50.1%→49.9%, 560k, 2016
Portage, WI (Stevens Point): 2, 51.4%→49.9%, 41k, 1956
Lake, MI (Duluth burbs): 2, 51.8%→49.96%, 7k, 1932
Stanislaus, CA (Modesto): 2, 50.4%→49.97%, 215k, 2004
Iberville, LA (Baton Rouge burbs): 2, 51.9%→50.02%, 17k, 1972
St. James, LA (NOLA burbs): 2, 52.2%→50.02%, 13k, 1972
Pueblo, CO (Pueblo): 2, 50.9%→50.03%, 88k, 2016
Baldwin, GA (Milledgeville): 2, 50.7%→50.1%, 18k, 2004
Nash, NC (Rocky Mount): 2, 50.1%→50.1%, 52k, 2016
Green, WI (Madison burbs): 2, 51.6%→50.2%, 21k, 1988
Big Horn, MT (Billings burbs): 2, 53.0%→50.5%, 5k, 1980
Gloucester, NJ (Delaware Valley): 2, 51.0%→50.6%, 173k, 2016
Warren, MS (Vicksburg): 2, 50.2%→50.7%, 21k, 2016
Prince of Wales-Hyder, AK (Inside Passage): 2, 50.2%→50.8%, 4k, 2016
Northampton, PA (Bethlehem): 2, 50.4%→50.8%, 171k, 2016
Scott, IA (Davenport): 2, 51.8%→50.9%, 93k, 1984
Door, WI (Green Bay burbs): 2, 50.7%→51.0%, 20k, 2016
Orleans, VT (Northeast Kingdom): 2, 52.3%→51.1%, 14k, 2000
Cameron, TX (RGV): 1, 56.6%→51.1%, 114k, 2004
Cumberland, NJ (Delaware Valley): 2, 53.1%→51.1%, 62k, 1988
Clinton, NY (Plattsburgh): 2, 52.7%→51.1%, 35k, 1992
Deer Lodge, MT (Butte burbs): 2, 54.0%→51.3%, 5k, 1924
Guadalupe, NM (Northeast): 1, 57.4%→51.5%, 2k, 1984
Hidalgo, TX (RGV): 1, 58.6%→51.7%, 221k, 1972
Blaine, MT (Havre burbs): 2, 52.0%→51.8%, 3k, 2016
Northwest Arctic, AK (Far North): 1, 58.4%→52.0%, 2k, 2008
Sullivan, NH (Upper Valley): 2, 51.8%→52.1%, 24k, 2016
Essex, NY (Plattsburgh burbs): 2, 52.6%→52.3%, 19k, 2016
Douglas, WI (Duluth burbs): 2, 54.8%→52.5%, 25k, 1928
Genesee, MI (Flint): 1, 54.7%→52.5%, 221k, 1984
Webb, TX (Laredo): 1, 61.8%→52.8%, 68k, 1912
Lackawanna, PA (Scranton): 1, 54.2%→53.3%, 115k, 1984
And the ten closest counties in 2020 without a projected flip scenario:
Kent, MD (Upper Eastern Shore): 0, 50.6%→51.7%, 11k, 2016
Marion, OR (Salem): 0, 50.6%→52.0%, 166k, 2016
Tippecanoe, IN (Lafayette): 0, 50.3%→52.0%, 71k, 2016
Carroll, NH (Lakes): 0, 50.8%→52.4%, 33k, 2016
Butte, CA (Chico): 0, 50.9%→52.5%, 102k, 2016
Tarrant, TX (Fort Worth): 0, 50.1%→53.6%, 835k, 2016
Anchorage, AK (Anchorage): 0, 51.0%→54.0%, 145k, 2016
Inyo, CA (Sierra Nevadas): 0, 50.1%→54.1%, 9k, 2016
Talbot, MD (Easton): 0, 50.3%→54.1%, 23k, 2016
Williamson, TX (Austin burbs): 0, 50.7%→55.1%, 290k, 2016
What's the Romney-Clinton-Trump county?
That would be Kenedy County, Texas, which only has a few hundred voters. Obama won by 14 votes, then Romney by 2, Hillary by 15, and Trump by 62.
Ah yes. Forgot about that one.