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Biden counties:

Starr, TX (RGV): 4, 52.5%→36.9%, 18k, 1892

Duval, TX (Laredo burbs): 4, 51.3%→39.1%, 5k, 1904

Maverick, TX (Eagle Pass): 4, 54.8%→39.5%, 15k, 1928

Culberson, TX (El Paso burbs): 4, 51.3%→43.7%, 1k, 2004

Jim Hogg, TX (RGV): 3, 59.0%→44.0%, 2k, never (est. 1913)

Lee, AR (Memphis burbs): 4, 52.5%→46.0%, 3k, 1972

Brooks, TX (RGV): 3, 59.6%→46.6%, 2k, never (est. 1911)

Willacy, TX (RGV): 4, 56.0%→46.9%, 6k, 1972

Anson, NC (Charlotte burbs): 4, 52.1%→47.2%, 11k, 1972

Miami-Dade, FL (Miami): 3, 53.7%→47.6%, 1157k, 1988

Jasper, SC (Black Belt): 4, 50.4%→47.7%, 14k, 1972

Marshall, MS (Memphis burbs): 4, 51.6%→47.8%, 16k, 1972

Carlton, MN (Duluth burbs): 2, 50.8%→48.0%, 20k, 1928

Pasquotank, NC (Elizabeth City): 4, 50.2%→48.0%, 20k, 1988

Dillingham, AK (Southwest): 4, 53.3%→48.1%, 2k, 2008

Jasper, MS (Black Belt): 4, 50.2%→48.2%, 9k, 2000

Muskegon, MI (Muskegon): 4, 50.3%→48.4%, 92k, 1988

Jackson, IL (Carbondale): 4, 50.7%→48.4%, 23k, 1984

Desha, AR (Black Belt): 4, 51.2%→48.5%, 4k, 1972

Copiah, MS (Jackson burbs): 4, 50.9%→48.9%, 13k, 2004

Saginaw, MI (Saginaw): 2, 50.1%→49.1%, 103k, 2016

Aleutians West, AK (Southwest): 3, 55.1%→49.1%, 1k, 2008

St. Francis, AR (Memphis burbs): 4, 52.6%→49.3%, 7k, 1984

Winona, MN (Winona): 2, 50.2%→49.3%, 27k, 2016

Rockland, NY (NYC burbs): 4, 50.9%→49.3%, 150k, 2004

Marengo, AL (Black Belt): 4, 50.7%→49.4%, 11k, 2004

Sauk, WI (Madison burbs): 2, 50.9%→49.5%, 36k, 2016

Erie, PA (Erie): 2, 50.5%→49.5%, 137k, 2016

Kennebec, ME (Augusta): 2, 50.1%→49.5%, 72k, 2016

Washington, GA (Milledgeville burbs): 2, 50.4%→49.6%, 9k, 2004

Issaquena, MS (Vicksburg burbs): 3, 53.5%→49.7%, 1k, 1984

Pike, MS (Black Belt): 2, 50.5%→49.7%, 17k, 2004

Pinellas, FL (St. Pete): 2, 50.1%→49.9%, 560k, 2016

Portage, WI (Stevens Point): 2, 51.4%→49.9%, 41k, 1956

Lake, MI (Duluth burbs): 2, 51.8%→49.96%, 7k, 1932

Stanislaus, CA (Modesto): 2, 50.4%→49.97%, 215k, 2004

Iberville, LA (Baton Rouge burbs): 2, 51.9%→50.02%, 17k, 1972

St. James, LA (NOLA burbs): 2, 52.2%→50.02%, 13k, 1972

Pueblo, CO (Pueblo): 2, 50.9%→50.03%, 88k, 2016

Baldwin, GA (Milledgeville): 2, 50.7%→50.1%, 18k, 2004

Nash, NC (Rocky Mount): 2, 50.1%→50.1%, 52k, 2016

Green, WI (Madison burbs): 2, 51.6%→50.2%, 21k, 1988

Big Horn, MT (Billings burbs): 2, 53.0%→50.5%, 5k, 1980

Gloucester, NJ (Delaware Valley): 2, 51.0%→50.6%, 173k, 2016

Warren, MS (Vicksburg): 2, 50.2%→50.7%, 21k, 2016

Prince of Wales-Hyder, AK (Inside Passage): 2, 50.2%→50.8%, 4k, 2016

Northampton, PA (Bethlehem): 2, 50.4%→50.8%, 171k, 2016

Scott, IA (Davenport): 2, 51.8%→50.9%, 93k, 1984

Door, WI (Green Bay burbs): 2, 50.7%→51.0%, 20k, 2016

Orleans, VT (Northeast Kingdom): 2, 52.3%→51.1%, 14k, 2000

Cameron, TX (RGV): 1, 56.6%→51.1%, 114k, 2004

Cumberland, NJ (Delaware Valley): 2, 53.1%→51.1%, 62k, 1988

Clinton, NY (Plattsburgh): 2, 52.7%→51.1%, 35k, 1992

Deer Lodge, MT (Butte burbs): 2, 54.0%→51.3%, 5k, 1924

Guadalupe, NM (Northeast): 1, 57.4%→51.5%, 2k, 1984

Hidalgo, TX (RGV): 1, 58.6%→51.7%, 221k, 1972

Blaine, MT (Havre burbs): 2, 52.0%→51.8%, 3k, 2016

Northwest Arctic, AK (Far North): 1, 58.4%→52.0%, 2k, 2008

Sullivan, NH (Upper Valley): 2, 51.8%→52.1%, 24k, 2016

Essex, NY (Plattsburgh burbs): 2, 52.6%→52.3%, 19k, 2016

Douglas, WI (Duluth burbs): 2, 54.8%→52.5%, 25k, 1928

Genesee, MI (Flint): 1, 54.7%→52.5%, 221k, 1984

Webb, TX (Laredo): 1, 61.8%→52.8%, 68k, 1912

Lackawanna, PA (Scranton): 1, 54.2%→53.3%, 115k, 1984

And the ten closest counties in 2020 without a projected flip scenario:

Kent, MD (Upper Eastern Shore): 0, 50.6%→51.7%, 11k, 2016

Marion, OR (Salem): 0, 50.6%→52.0%, 166k, 2016

Tippecanoe, IN (Lafayette): 0, 50.3%→52.0%, 71k, 2016

Carroll, NH (Lakes): 0, 50.8%→52.4%, 33k, 2016

Butte, CA (Chico): 0, 50.9%→52.5%, 102k, 2016

Tarrant, TX (Fort Worth): 0, 50.1%→53.6%, 835k, 2016

Anchorage, AK (Anchorage): 0, 51.0%→54.0%, 145k, 2016

Inyo, CA (Sierra Nevadas): 0, 50.1%→54.1%, 9k, 2016

Talbot, MD (Easton): 0, 50.3%→54.1%, 23k, 2016

Williamson, TX (Austin burbs): 0, 50.7%→55.1%, 290k, 2016

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