Trump counties:
Oklahoma, OK (Oklahoma City): 4, 49.4%→53.4%, 295k, 1964
Collin, TX (DFW burbs): 4, 47.8%→52.9%, 491k, 1964
Hamilton, IN (Indy burbs): 4, 46.5%→52.2%, 194k, 1912
Monongalia, WV (Morgantown): 4, 49.4%→52.1%, 42k, 2008
Fayette, GA (Atlanta burbs): 4, 46.6%→52.0%, 72k, 1976
Grand, CO (Western Slope): 4, 49.1%→52.0%, 10k, 1964
Ontario, NY (Rochester burbs): 4, 49.99%→51.6%, 60k, 1996
Platte, MO (KC burbs): 4, 48.5%→51.5%, 57k, 1992
Grand Traverse, MI (Traverse City): 4, 48.5%→51.3%, 60k, 1964
Warren, NY (Albany burbs): 2, 49.9%→51.2%, 36k, 2012
Hunterdon, NJ (NYC burbs): 4, 47.8%→51.2%, 84k, 1964
Dallas, IA (Des Moines burbs): 4, 49.0%→51.2%, 56k, 1996
Wicomico, MD (Salisbury): 2, 49.0%→51.1%, 46k, 1964
Suffolk, NY (NYC burbs): 2, 49.98%→51.0%, 772k, 2012
Carver, MN (MSP burbs): 4, 47.5%→51.0%, 66k, 1932
Anoka, MN (MSP burbs): 2, 49.0%→50.6%, 211k, 1996
Douglas, CO (Denver burbs): 3, 46.3%→50.6%, 232k, 1964
Denton, TX (DFW burbs): 2, 45.9%→50.6%, 418k, 1964
York, VA (Newport News burbs): 3, 46.6%→50.5%, 39k, 1964
McHenry, IL (Chicago burbs): 3, 48.7%→50.5%, 164k, 2008
Orange, NY (NYC burbs): 2, 49.9%→50.4%, 172k, 2012
Cass, ND (Fargo): 2, 48.6%→50.3%, 86k, 2008
Washington, AR (Fayetteville): 3, 48.0%→50.3%, 94k, 1996
Polk, OR (Salem burbs): 2, 49.1%→50.3%, 48k, 1964
Delaware, OH (Columbus burbs): 2, 46.5%→50.2%, 126k, 1916
Franklin, KY (Frankfort): 2, 49.5%→50.1%, 26k, 2012
Monmouth, NJ (Jersey Shore): 2, 48.6%→50.1%, 378k, 2000
Calvert, MD (DC burbs): 2, 47.1%→49.99%, 49k, 1976
Eaton, MI (Lansing burbs): 2, 49.6%→49.97%, 64k, 2012
Clay, MO (KC burbs): 2, 47.9%→49.8%, 127k, 2000
Ada, ID (Boise): 1, 48.0%→49.8%, 260k, 1936
Rice, MN (Faribault): 2, 49.9%→49.6%, 36k, 2012
Sangamon, IL (Springfield): 1, 47.8%→49.4%, 105k, 2008
Jackson, OR (Medford): 2, 48.2%→49.4%, 127k, 2008
Lancaster, VA (Northern Neck): 1, 47.7%→49.3%, 7k, 1948
Waynesboro, VA (Shenandoah Valley): 1, 47.4%→49.3%, 11k, 1964
San Juan, UT (Reservation): 1, 46.8%→49.3%, 7k, 1936
Scott, MN (MSP burbs): 1, 46.6%→49.3%, 88k, 1996
Tillamook, OR (North Coast): 2, 49.1%→49.2%, 17k, 2012
Pacific, WA (Willapa Hills): 2, 49.4%→49.2%, 14k, 2012
Wasco, OR (The Gorge): 2, 48.4%→49.2%, 14k, 2008
Florence, SC (Florence): 1, 48.9%→49.2%, 65k, 1976
Essex, VA (Middle Peninsula): 2, 49.7%→49.1%, 6k, 2012
Lowndes, MS (Columbus): 2, 48.7%→49.1%, 27k, 1956
Litchfield, CT (Torrington): 2, 47.4%→49.1%, 108k, 2008
Yamhill, OR (Portland burbs): 1, 47.9%→49.0%, 59k, 1964
Spotsylvania, VA (Fredericksburg burbs): 2, 46.5%→48.9%, 75k, 1976
Madison, AL (Huntsville): 1, 45.9%→48.8%, 195k, 1976
Park, MT (Bozeman burbs): 1, 46.7%→48.7%, 12k, 1964
Fluvanna, VA (Charlottesville burbs): 1, 47.6%→48.7%, 16k, 1976
Spokane, WA (Spokane): 1, 47.7%→48.6%, 295k, 1996
Cortland, NY (Cortland): 2, 49.0%→48.6%, 22k, 2012
Androscoggin, ME (Lewiston): 2, 48.5%→48.3%, 59k, 2012
Chelan, WA (Wenatchee): 1, 46.0%→48.3%, 43k, 1964
Cabarrus, NC (Charlotte burbs): 1, 45.2%→48.3%, 117k, 1948
Beltrami, MN (Reservation): 2, 48.4%→48.3%, 24k, 2012
Huerfano, CO (Pueblo burbs): 1, 48.5%→48.1%, 4k, 2012
Corson, SD (Reservation): 2, 49.0%→48.1%, 1k, 2012
Otsego, NY (Cooperstown): 2, 47.4%→48.0%, 28k, 2012
Putnam, NY (NYC burbs): 1, 46.0%→47.9%, 55k, 1964
Trinity, CA (Shasta): 1, 47.2%→47.8%, 6k, 2008
El Paso, CO (Colorado Springs): 1, 44.4%→47.8%, 379k, 1964
Clinton, MI (Lansing burbs): 1, 46.7%→47.8%, 48k, 2008
Roosevelt, MT (Reservation): 2, 48.9%→47.8%, 4k, 2012
Sarpy, NE (Omaha burbs): 1, 44.2%→47.6%, 96k, 1964
Thurston, NE (Reservation): 2, 48.7%→47.5%, 2k, 2012
Mahnomen, MN (Reservation): 2, 49.3%→47.3%, 2k, 2012
Franklin, NY (Plattsburgh burbs): 2, 48.9%→46.8%, 19k, 2012
Sussex, DE (Delaware Beaches): 1, 44.3%→46.4%, 129k, 1996
And the ten closest counties in 2020 without a projected flip scenario:
St. Lucie, FL (Port St. Lucie): 0, 49.2%→48.6%, 172k, 2012
Jefferson, TX (Beaumont): 0, 49.2%→48.6%, 95k, 2012
Columbia, WI (Madison burbs): 0, 49.2%→47.7%, 34k, 2012
Clarendon, SC (Sumter burbs): 0, 49.7%→47.3%, 17k, 2016
Alamosa, CO (San Luis Valley): 0, 49.6%→47.1%, 8k, 2016
Jefferson, IA (Fairfield): 0, 49.3%→47.0%, 9k, 2012
Kleberg, TX (Corpus Christi burbs): 0, 49.1%→46.9%, 11k, 2016
Dillon, SC (Florence burbs): 0, 49.4%→46.6%, 13k, 2016
Burke, GA (Augusta burbs): 0, 49.1%→46.6%, 11k, 2016
Mahoning, OH (Youngstown): 0, 49.0%→43.9%, 119k, 2016
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Trump counties:
Oklahoma, OK (Oklahoma City): 4, 49.4%→53.4%, 295k, 1964
Collin, TX (DFW burbs): 4, 47.8%→52.9%, 491k, 1964
Hamilton, IN (Indy burbs): 4, 46.5%→52.2%, 194k, 1912
Monongalia, WV (Morgantown): 4, 49.4%→52.1%, 42k, 2008
Fayette, GA (Atlanta burbs): 4, 46.6%→52.0%, 72k, 1976
Grand, CO (Western Slope): 4, 49.1%→52.0%, 10k, 1964
Ontario, NY (Rochester burbs): 4, 49.99%→51.6%, 60k, 1996
Platte, MO (KC burbs): 4, 48.5%→51.5%, 57k, 1992
Grand Traverse, MI (Traverse City): 4, 48.5%→51.3%, 60k, 1964
Warren, NY (Albany burbs): 2, 49.9%→51.2%, 36k, 2012
Hunterdon, NJ (NYC burbs): 4, 47.8%→51.2%, 84k, 1964
Dallas, IA (Des Moines burbs): 4, 49.0%→51.2%, 56k, 1996
Wicomico, MD (Salisbury): 2, 49.0%→51.1%, 46k, 1964
Suffolk, NY (NYC burbs): 2, 49.98%→51.0%, 772k, 2012
Carver, MN (MSP burbs): 4, 47.5%→51.0%, 66k, 1932
Anoka, MN (MSP burbs): 2, 49.0%→50.6%, 211k, 1996
Douglas, CO (Denver burbs): 3, 46.3%→50.6%, 232k, 1964
Denton, TX (DFW burbs): 2, 45.9%→50.6%, 418k, 1964
York, VA (Newport News burbs): 3, 46.6%→50.5%, 39k, 1964
McHenry, IL (Chicago burbs): 3, 48.7%→50.5%, 164k, 2008
Orange, NY (NYC burbs): 2, 49.9%→50.4%, 172k, 2012
Cass, ND (Fargo): 2, 48.6%→50.3%, 86k, 2008
Washington, AR (Fayetteville): 3, 48.0%→50.3%, 94k, 1996
Polk, OR (Salem burbs): 2, 49.1%→50.3%, 48k, 1964
Delaware, OH (Columbus burbs): 2, 46.5%→50.2%, 126k, 1916
Franklin, KY (Frankfort): 2, 49.5%→50.1%, 26k, 2012
Monmouth, NJ (Jersey Shore): 2, 48.6%→50.1%, 378k, 2000
Calvert, MD (DC burbs): 2, 47.1%→49.99%, 49k, 1976
Eaton, MI (Lansing burbs): 2, 49.6%→49.97%, 64k, 2012
Clay, MO (KC burbs): 2, 47.9%→49.8%, 127k, 2000
Ada, ID (Boise): 1, 48.0%→49.8%, 260k, 1936
Rice, MN (Faribault): 2, 49.9%→49.6%, 36k, 2012
Sangamon, IL (Springfield): 1, 47.8%→49.4%, 105k, 2008
Jackson, OR (Medford): 2, 48.2%→49.4%, 127k, 2008
Lancaster, VA (Northern Neck): 1, 47.7%→49.3%, 7k, 1948
Waynesboro, VA (Shenandoah Valley): 1, 47.4%→49.3%, 11k, 1964
San Juan, UT (Reservation): 1, 46.8%→49.3%, 7k, 1936
Scott, MN (MSP burbs): 1, 46.6%→49.3%, 88k, 1996
Tillamook, OR (North Coast): 2, 49.1%→49.2%, 17k, 2012
Pacific, WA (Willapa Hills): 2, 49.4%→49.2%, 14k, 2012
Wasco, OR (The Gorge): 2, 48.4%→49.2%, 14k, 2008
Florence, SC (Florence): 1, 48.9%→49.2%, 65k, 1976
Essex, VA (Middle Peninsula): 2, 49.7%→49.1%, 6k, 2012
Lowndes, MS (Columbus): 2, 48.7%→49.1%, 27k, 1956
Litchfield, CT (Torrington): 2, 47.4%→49.1%, 108k, 2008
Yamhill, OR (Portland burbs): 1, 47.9%→49.0%, 59k, 1964
Spotsylvania, VA (Fredericksburg burbs): 2, 46.5%→48.9%, 75k, 1976
Madison, AL (Huntsville): 1, 45.9%→48.8%, 195k, 1976
Park, MT (Bozeman burbs): 1, 46.7%→48.7%, 12k, 1964
Fluvanna, VA (Charlottesville burbs): 1, 47.6%→48.7%, 16k, 1976
Spokane, WA (Spokane): 1, 47.7%→48.6%, 295k, 1996
Cortland, NY (Cortland): 2, 49.0%→48.6%, 22k, 2012
Androscoggin, ME (Lewiston): 2, 48.5%→48.3%, 59k, 2012
Chelan, WA (Wenatchee): 1, 46.0%→48.3%, 43k, 1964
Cabarrus, NC (Charlotte burbs): 1, 45.2%→48.3%, 117k, 1948
Beltrami, MN (Reservation): 2, 48.4%→48.3%, 24k, 2012
Huerfano, CO (Pueblo burbs): 1, 48.5%→48.1%, 4k, 2012
Corson, SD (Reservation): 2, 49.0%→48.1%, 1k, 2012
Otsego, NY (Cooperstown): 2, 47.4%→48.0%, 28k, 2012
Putnam, NY (NYC burbs): 1, 46.0%→47.9%, 55k, 1964
Trinity, CA (Shasta): 1, 47.2%→47.8%, 6k, 2008
El Paso, CO (Colorado Springs): 1, 44.4%→47.8%, 379k, 1964
Clinton, MI (Lansing burbs): 1, 46.7%→47.8%, 48k, 2008
Roosevelt, MT (Reservation): 2, 48.9%→47.8%, 4k, 2012
Sarpy, NE (Omaha burbs): 1, 44.2%→47.6%, 96k, 1964
Thurston, NE (Reservation): 2, 48.7%→47.5%, 2k, 2012
Mahnomen, MN (Reservation): 2, 49.3%→47.3%, 2k, 2012
Franklin, NY (Plattsburgh burbs): 2, 48.9%→46.8%, 19k, 2012
Sussex, DE (Delaware Beaches): 1, 44.3%→46.4%, 129k, 1996
And the ten closest counties in 2020 without a projected flip scenario:
St. Lucie, FL (Port St. Lucie): 0, 49.2%→48.6%, 172k, 2012
Jefferson, TX (Beaumont): 0, 49.2%→48.6%, 95k, 2012
Columbia, WI (Madison burbs): 0, 49.2%→47.7%, 34k, 2012
Clarendon, SC (Sumter burbs): 0, 49.7%→47.3%, 17k, 2016
Alamosa, CO (San Luis Valley): 0, 49.6%→47.1%, 8k, 2016
Jefferson, IA (Fairfield): 0, 49.3%→47.0%, 9k, 2012
Kleberg, TX (Corpus Christi burbs): 0, 49.1%→46.9%, 11k, 2016
Dillon, SC (Florence burbs): 0, 49.4%→46.6%, 13k, 2016
Burke, GA (Augusta burbs): 0, 49.1%→46.6%, 11k, 2016
Mahoning, OH (Youngstown): 0, 49.0%→43.9%, 119k, 2016