Which state do you think will be closer in November, Alaska or Texas? I think Alaska could be a surprise. My IG handle is calvin.trini . I hardly use other forms of social media besides Instagram and Facebook.
Which state do you think will be closer in November, Alaska or Texas? I think Alaska could be a surprise. My IG handle is calvin.trini . I hardly use other forms of social media besides Instagram and Facebook.
Alaska. Texas has always been fool's gold, and remains fool's gold to this day.
My Hot Take is that Kansas will be closer than Texas or Alaksa though. Trump will win Alaska by ~7, he'll win Texas by ~8, and I believe Kansas will more dramatically to the left and be won by Trump with a margin of ~6.
I agree that Kansas could finish closer than both of the other states. If Trump wins Texas by 8, he will have exceeding the polling. That's certainly possible, but I'm not as pessimistic about Texas as you are.
Cannot disagree more about TX being foolтАЩs gold. It is undeniably moving left, in part due to the money and effort that has already been put in to the state. I know there are several folks who like to argue itтАЩs a lost cause and waste of money, but I donтАЩt believe IтАЩve ever seen anyone provide a reason why we should expect the trend to suddenly stop just prior to it becoming a swing state and remain forever in the Republican column.
Highly doubt that Trump will do 2.5 points better than he did in 2020 either. Against Biden, maybe, but against Harris in a post Dobbs world? I would actually put a decent amount of money on that.
As far as hot takes, mine is that Jasmine Crockett will be a Dem Senator from TX before too long.
Do agree with you on KS being closer than expected though.
Texas is only fool's gold because of voter participation rates(which is the worst in the country); once the Democratic party registers their voters and actually drives them to the polls on a consistent basis, it becomes a toss up
We'll find out in about 51 days. I've heard the same schtick about "Texas is turning blue now!" For a long long time, and I've never been popular for saying that Democrats can't win statewide in Texas. I've yet to be wrong in 18 years I've been having this same conversation in election forums. Chris Bell was never going to beat Rick Perry. O'Rourke was never going to best Cruz. And Harris is never going to beat Trump in Texas.
Saying Texas "is undeniably moving left" is only supported by data of any form if you cherry pick high water mark data from selected races in selected cycles and ignoring everything else, which is absurd. Poingnto TX-Sen 2018 and POTUS 2020 if you wanted, but those are outlier races when compared to what Texas truly is electorally. Texas has voted in a post Dobbs world, in 2022. Below are all of the 2022 statewide results, all post Dobbs:
TX-Gov: R+12 (roughly the same margin as 2010&2006)
TX Pres is usually what is discussed when it comes to the shift to blue, no? I usually start at 2000 for aesthetic reasons, where TX Pres has gone from R+21.3 to R+5.5. Recognizing that Bush on the ticket may have skewed things, even if you start with 2008 Dems have gained 5.3 points. Point towards bluening.
The Senate seats tell a different story, the Cruz seat has gone from R+32.7 in 2000 to R+2.7 in 2018. CornynтАЩs seat has gone from R+12 in 2002 to R+9.6 in 2020, so we split there.
Gov has gone from +17.8 in 2002 to +11 in 2022. IтАЩll give you that one, it has become more favorable turf however it has stalled out recently.
As far as the downballot offices, just showing the result in 2022 isnтАЩt really good evidence, as there is no baseline. Additionally, I believe it is generally accepted that those seats tend to lag the top of the ticket, so we would expect them to become competitive after the top of the ticket. But just comparing the post-Bush era, since 2010 Lt Gov has gone from R+27.1 to R+10.3, AG from R+30.4 to R+9.7, CoA from R+25 to R+12. Having trouble finding data for the other races, but they do show a definite trend towards Dems.
I will concede that тАЬundeniablyтАЭ may have been too strong a word, as there is limited evidence to refute that. However, I think that you are doing a lot more cherry picking of data to try to prove your theory than those who argue that TX is trending our way.
I donтАЩt get it. All of the statewide races youтАЩre using as evidence itтАЩs safe red, moved left from the 2018 blue wave to the 2022 red trickle. Just using how a state votes in 1 cycle without considering the national environment and how it moved compared to other states in previous cycles is how you get Georgia Republicans 100% convinced Georgia is a red state, until it suddenly isnтАЩt.
I agree with you that itтАЩs not likely this cycle, but everything else here is a preconceived narrative in search of data. The truth is that the state has moved left and right in multiple election cycles depending on where you start from, but if youтАЩre using pre-Trump elections to make your case and ignoring the post-Trump biggest electoral shift since Obama then that isnтАЩt exactly the smart thing to do either.
The signs are all around that the state is changing, if youтАЩre willing to accept it. LetтАЩs look at the State House.
2008: 76-74 R
2010: 99-51 R
2012: 95-55 R
2014: 98-52 R
2016: 95-55 R
As you can see, youтАЩre right that nothing much changed, but now, letтАЩs look at the closest elections to today instead of some Obama era Texas far off comparison of a state that no longer exists.
2018: 83-67 R
2020: 83-67 R
2022: 86-64 R
As you can see, the seats Democrats gained since then have been held by the party so no, this isnтАЩt the same as the Obama years.
Ohio was a bellwether state for decades. Until the coalition change took it to red territory, but it didnтАЩt happen in 1 cycle, it happened over many and the signs started to show way earlier than the year it actually flipped. Saying something will always be as it is, while ignoring the most recent election trends is a 1 way ticket to being very wrong at some point. New information should always cause you to reassess your opinions and if it doesnтАЩt, then itтАЩs a narrative youтАЩre trying to create, not doing your best to ascertain the truth.
Which state do you think will be closer in November, Alaska or Texas? I think Alaska could be a surprise. My IG handle is calvin.trini . I hardly use other forms of social media besides Instagram and Facebook.
Texas. But we'll see, and I give about 15% odds for Alaska being closer.
Alaska. Texas has always been fool's gold, and remains fool's gold to this day.
My Hot Take is that Kansas will be closer than Texas or Alaksa though. Trump will win Alaska by ~7, he'll win Texas by ~8, and I believe Kansas will more dramatically to the left and be won by Trump with a margin of ~6.
I agree that Kansas could finish closer than both of the other states. If Trump wins Texas by 8, he will have exceeding the polling. That's certainly possible, but I'm not as pessimistic about Texas as you are.
I hope that Texas is close enough to allow Allred to pull off an upset.
Cannot disagree more about TX being foolтАЩs gold. It is undeniably moving left, in part due to the money and effort that has already been put in to the state. I know there are several folks who like to argue itтАЩs a lost cause and waste of money, but I donтАЩt believe IтАЩve ever seen anyone provide a reason why we should expect the trend to suddenly stop just prior to it becoming a swing state and remain forever in the Republican column.
Highly doubt that Trump will do 2.5 points better than he did in 2020 either. Against Biden, maybe, but against Harris in a post Dobbs world? I would actually put a decent amount of money on that.
As far as hot takes, mine is that Jasmine Crockett will be a Dem Senator from TX before too long.
Do agree with you on KS being closer than expected though.
Texas is only fool's gold because of voter participation rates(which is the worst in the country); once the Democratic party registers their voters and actually drives them to the polls on a consistent basis, it becomes a toss up
We'll find out in about 51 days. I've heard the same schtick about "Texas is turning blue now!" For a long long time, and I've never been popular for saying that Democrats can't win statewide in Texas. I've yet to be wrong in 18 years I've been having this same conversation in election forums. Chris Bell was never going to beat Rick Perry. O'Rourke was never going to best Cruz. And Harris is never going to beat Trump in Texas.
Saying Texas "is undeniably moving left" is only supported by data of any form if you cherry pick high water mark data from selected races in selected cycles and ignoring everything else, which is absurd. Poingnto TX-Sen 2018 and POTUS 2020 if you wanted, but those are outlier races when compared to what Texas truly is electorally. Texas has voted in a post Dobbs world, in 2022. Below are all of the 2022 statewide results, all post Dobbs:
TX-Gov: R+12 (roughly the same margin as 2010&2006)
TX-LG: R+11
TX-AG: R+9
TX-PA: R+15
TX-GLO: R+14
TX-CoA: R+12
TX-RRC: R+14
Texas is difficult for now; but it's not impossible(mainly due to what I posted above)
TX Pres is usually what is discussed when it comes to the shift to blue, no? I usually start at 2000 for aesthetic reasons, where TX Pres has gone from R+21.3 to R+5.5. Recognizing that Bush on the ticket may have skewed things, even if you start with 2008 Dems have gained 5.3 points. Point towards bluening.
The Senate seats tell a different story, the Cruz seat has gone from R+32.7 in 2000 to R+2.7 in 2018. CornynтАЩs seat has gone from R+12 in 2002 to R+9.6 in 2020, so we split there.
Gov has gone from +17.8 in 2002 to +11 in 2022. IтАЩll give you that one, it has become more favorable turf however it has stalled out recently.
As far as the downballot offices, just showing the result in 2022 isnтАЩt really good evidence, as there is no baseline. Additionally, I believe it is generally accepted that those seats tend to lag the top of the ticket, so we would expect them to become competitive after the top of the ticket. But just comparing the post-Bush era, since 2010 Lt Gov has gone from R+27.1 to R+10.3, AG from R+30.4 to R+9.7, CoA from R+25 to R+12. Having trouble finding data for the other races, but they do show a definite trend towards Dems.
I will concede that тАЬundeniablyтАЭ may have been too strong a word, as there is limited evidence to refute that. However, I think that you are doing a lot more cherry picking of data to try to prove your theory than those who argue that TX is trending our way.
I donтАЩt get it. All of the statewide races youтАЩre using as evidence itтАЩs safe red, moved left from the 2018 blue wave to the 2022 red trickle. Just using how a state votes in 1 cycle without considering the national environment and how it moved compared to other states in previous cycles is how you get Georgia Republicans 100% convinced Georgia is a red state, until it suddenly isnтАЩt.
I agree with you that itтАЩs not likely this cycle, but everything else here is a preconceived narrative in search of data. The truth is that the state has moved left and right in multiple election cycles depending on where you start from, but if youтАЩre using pre-Trump elections to make your case and ignoring the post-Trump biggest electoral shift since Obama then that isnтАЩt exactly the smart thing to do either.
The signs are all around that the state is changing, if youтАЩre willing to accept it. LetтАЩs look at the State House.
2008: 76-74 R
2010: 99-51 R
2012: 95-55 R
2014: 98-52 R
2016: 95-55 R
As you can see, youтАЩre right that nothing much changed, but now, letтАЩs look at the closest elections to today instead of some Obama era Texas far off comparison of a state that no longer exists.
2018: 83-67 R
2020: 83-67 R
2022: 86-64 R
As you can see, the seats Democrats gained since then have been held by the party so no, this isnтАЩt the same as the Obama years.
Ohio was a bellwether state for decades. Until the coalition change took it to red territory, but it didnтАЩt happen in 1 cycle, it happened over many and the signs started to show way earlier than the year it actually flipped. Saying something will always be as it is, while ignoring the most recent election trends is a 1 way ticket to being very wrong at some point. New information should always cause you to reassess your opinions and if it doesnтАЩt, then itтАЩs a narrative youтАЩre trying to create, not doing your best to ascertain the truth.
Along the lines of what OG said, at least wait until the 2024 election results before claiming that Texas is "undeniably moving left."
Especially the Cruz margins
Agree, as stated above. Undeniably is too strong a word, but the preponderance of evidence does show leftward trends.