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dragonfire5004's avatar

I don’t get it. All of the statewide races you’re using as evidence it’s safe red, moved left from the 2018 blue wave to the 2022 red trickle. Just using how a state votes in 1 cycle without considering the national environment and how it moved compared to other states in previous cycles is how you get Georgia Republicans 100% convinced Georgia is a red state, until it suddenly isn’t.

I agree with you that it’s not likely this cycle, but everything else here is a preconceived narrative in search of data. The truth is that the state has moved left and right in multiple election cycles depending on where you start from, but if you’re using pre-Trump elections to make your case and ignoring the post-Trump biggest electoral shift since Obama then that isn’t exactly the smart thing to do either.

The signs are all around that the state is changing, if you’re willing to accept it. Let’s look at the State House.

2008: 76-74 R

2010: 99-51 R

2012: 95-55 R

2014: 98-52 R

2016: 95-55 R

As you can see, you’re right that nothing much changed, but now, let’s look at the closest elections to today instead of some Obama era Texas far off comparison of a state that no longer exists.

2018: 83-67 R

2020: 83-67 R

2022: 86-64 R

As you can see, the seats Democrats gained since then have been held by the party so no, this isn’t the same as the Obama years.

Ohio was a bellwether state for decades. Until the coalition change took it to red territory, but it didn’t happen in 1 cycle, it happened over many and the signs started to show way earlier than the year it actually flipped. Saying something will always be as it is, while ignoring the most recent election trends is a 1 way ticket to being very wrong at some point. New information should always cause you to reassess your opinions and if it doesn’t, then it’s a narrative you’re trying to create, not doing your best to ascertain the truth.

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