TX Pres is usually what is discussed when it comes to the shift to blue, no? I usually start at 2000 for aesthetic reasons, where TX Pres has gone from R+21.3 to R+5.5. Recognizing that Bush on the ticket may have skewed things, even if you start with 2008 Dems have gained 5.3 points. Point towards bluening.
TX Pres is usually what is discussed when it comes to the shift to blue, no? I usually start at 2000 for aesthetic reasons, where TX Pres has gone from R+21.3 to R+5.5. Recognizing that Bush on the ticket may have skewed things, even if you start with 2008 Dems have gained 5.3 points. Point towards bluening.
The Senate seats tell a different story, the Cruz seat has gone from R+32.7 in 2000 to R+2.7 in 2018. Cornyn’s seat has gone from R+12 in 2002 to R+9.6 in 2020, so we split there.
Gov has gone from +17.8 in 2002 to +11 in 2022. I’ll give you that one, it has become more favorable turf however it has stalled out recently.
As far as the downballot offices, just showing the result in 2022 isn’t really good evidence, as there is no baseline. Additionally, I believe it is generally accepted that those seats tend to lag the top of the ticket, so we would expect them to become competitive after the top of the ticket. But just comparing the post-Bush era, since 2010 Lt Gov has gone from R+27.1 to R+10.3, AG from R+30.4 to R+9.7, CoA from R+25 to R+12. Having trouble finding data for the other races, but they do show a definite trend towards Dems.
I will concede that “undeniably” may have been too strong a word, as there is limited evidence to refute that. However, I think that you are doing a lot more cherry picking of data to try to prove your theory than those who argue that TX is trending our way.
TX Pres is usually what is discussed when it comes to the shift to blue, no? I usually start at 2000 for aesthetic reasons, where TX Pres has gone from R+21.3 to R+5.5. Recognizing that Bush on the ticket may have skewed things, even if you start with 2008 Dems have gained 5.3 points. Point towards bluening.
The Senate seats tell a different story, the Cruz seat has gone from R+32.7 in 2000 to R+2.7 in 2018. Cornyn’s seat has gone from R+12 in 2002 to R+9.6 in 2020, so we split there.
Gov has gone from +17.8 in 2002 to +11 in 2022. I’ll give you that one, it has become more favorable turf however it has stalled out recently.
As far as the downballot offices, just showing the result in 2022 isn’t really good evidence, as there is no baseline. Additionally, I believe it is generally accepted that those seats tend to lag the top of the ticket, so we would expect them to become competitive after the top of the ticket. But just comparing the post-Bush era, since 2010 Lt Gov has gone from R+27.1 to R+10.3, AG from R+30.4 to R+9.7, CoA from R+25 to R+12. Having trouble finding data for the other races, but they do show a definite trend towards Dems.
I will concede that “undeniably” may have been too strong a word, as there is limited evidence to refute that. However, I think that you are doing a lot more cherry picking of data to try to prove your theory than those who argue that TX is trending our way.