What is one county that, thanks to demographic factors and previous election results, you believe is almost guaranteed to vote for the winner of the presidential election?
What is one county that, thanks to demographic factors and previous election results, you believe is almost guaranteed to vote for the winner of the presidential election?
Given its close proximity to places that have shifted double digits to the GOP in recent cycles, I'm quite confident that Erie County will be decisively red moving forward, starting with next month.
Strongly disagree. Erie County has a significant city, plus some suburbs that have moved to the left, and combined, they're the majority of the county's population. I suspect Erie County will vote about the same as it did in 2020.
Looking at the population and demographic breakdowns, I'm not seeing that big of a difference between Erie County, PA, and Mahoning County, OH. Is Erie County substantially less blue-collar than conventional wisdom would assume?
Interesting that you'd compare Erie to Mahoning when they haven't voted the same way since 2012 - Erie went Trump/Biden while Mahoning went Clinton/Trump.
Probably because they're an hour apart, both have populations of around 250,000 and are about 80% white. Given the trajectory of all of Erie County's neighbors, why should we suspect it to not follow their lead?
My point is that they don't have the same trend. Erie moved to the left from 2016 to 2020, while Mahoning moved to the right. They're not the same at all.
I guess we'll see if that holds moving forward. Going back to your original question, I can't envision a situation where Harris wins Erie County but Trump wins nationally but I can absolutely envision a scenario where Trump wins Erie County but Harris wins nationally.
To play devil's advocate, they did move in oppposite directions, but just a couple points still separates them -- I can see Kamala losing both or narrowly losing one and not the other.
My first impulse is to look at the county with the longest active streak, Clallam co. in WA. I've noticed that:
- The county is continuously growing in population.
- The elections are usually very close - The winning candidate hasn't won by more than 52% since 1984. Even Obama in 2008 only won by about 3%, nearly the same margin that Biden won.
- Third party percentages are higher than usual (10% in 2016).
Not sure what to make of it, but I'd still go with this as my pick.
It is tough to find a county that is both at a tipping point and one that is not moving in one direction or the other. I would suggest that the popular vote will be similar to Washoe County, Nevada, which has been close to the popular vote the last few elections.
What is one county that, thanks to demographic factors and previous election results, you believe is almost guaranteed to vote for the winner of the presidential election?
Erie PA
Given its close proximity to places that have shifted double digits to the GOP in recent cycles, I'm quite confident that Erie County will be decisively red moving forward, starting with next month.
Strongly disagree. Erie County has a significant city, plus some suburbs that have moved to the left, and combined, they're the majority of the county's population. I suspect Erie County will vote about the same as it did in 2020.
Looking at the population and demographic breakdowns, I'm not seeing that big of a difference between Erie County, PA, and Mahoning County, OH. Is Erie County substantially less blue-collar than conventional wisdom would assume?
Interesting that you'd compare Erie to Mahoning when they haven't voted the same way since 2012 - Erie went Trump/Biden while Mahoning went Clinton/Trump.
Probably because they're an hour apart, both have populations of around 250,000 and are about 80% white. Given the trajectory of all of Erie County's neighbors, why should we suspect it to not follow their lead?
My point is that they don't have the same trend. Erie moved to the left from 2016 to 2020, while Mahoning moved to the right. They're not the same at all.
I guess we'll see if that holds moving forward. Going back to your original question, I can't envision a situation where Harris wins Erie County but Trump wins nationally but I can absolutely envision a scenario where Trump wins Erie County but Harris wins nationally.
I agree with that.
To play devil's advocate, they did move in oppposite directions, but just a couple points still separates them -- I can see Kamala losing both or narrowly losing one and not the other.
My first impulse is to look at the county with the longest active streak, Clallam co. in WA. I've noticed that:
- The county is continuously growing in population.
- The elections are usually very close - The winning candidate hasn't won by more than 52% since 1984. Even Obama in 2008 only won by about 3%, nearly the same margin that Biden won.
- Third party percentages are higher than usual (10% in 2016).
Not sure what to make of it, but I'd still go with this as my pick.
Possibly Oklahoma County, OK.
Northampton County, PA.
This is the one considered pretty much the State bellwether, no?
This was the first county I thought of after posting my original question.
It is tough to find a county that is both at a tipping point and one that is not moving in one direction or the other. I would suggest that the popular vote will be similar to Washoe County, Nevada, which has been close to the popular vote the last few elections.
Clay, MO, and Spotsylvania, VA, are a couple for me.
Saginaw County. Also the winner in MI 08.