Given its close proximity to places that have shifted double digits to the GOP in recent cycles, I'm quite confident that Erie County will be decisively red moving forward, starting with next month.
Strongly disagree. Erie County has a significant city, plus some suburbs that have moved to the left, and combined, they're the majority of the county's population. I suspect Erie County will vote about the same as it did in 2020.
Looking at the population and demographic breakdowns, I'm not seeing that big of a difference between Erie County, PA, and Mahoning County, OH. Is Erie County substantially less blue-collar than conventional wisdom would assume?
Interesting that you'd compare Erie to Mahoning when they haven't voted the same way since 2012 - Erie went Trump/Biden while Mahoning went Clinton/Trump.
Probably because they're an hour apart, both have populations of around 250,000 and are about 80% white. Given the trajectory of all of Erie County's neighbors, why should we suspect it to not follow their lead?
My point is that they don't have the same trend. Erie moved to the left from 2016 to 2020, while Mahoning moved to the right. They're not the same at all.
I guess we'll see if that holds moving forward. Going back to your original question, I can't envision a situation where Harris wins Erie County but Trump wins nationally but I can absolutely envision a scenario where Trump wins Erie County but Harris wins nationally.
To play devil's advocate, they did move in oppposite directions, but just a couple points still separates them -- I can see Kamala losing both or narrowly losing one and not the other.
Erie PA
Given its close proximity to places that have shifted double digits to the GOP in recent cycles, I'm quite confident that Erie County will be decisively red moving forward, starting with next month.
Strongly disagree. Erie County has a significant city, plus some suburbs that have moved to the left, and combined, they're the majority of the county's population. I suspect Erie County will vote about the same as it did in 2020.
Looking at the population and demographic breakdowns, I'm not seeing that big of a difference between Erie County, PA, and Mahoning County, OH. Is Erie County substantially less blue-collar than conventional wisdom would assume?
Interesting that you'd compare Erie to Mahoning when they haven't voted the same way since 2012 - Erie went Trump/Biden while Mahoning went Clinton/Trump.
Probably because they're an hour apart, both have populations of around 250,000 and are about 80% white. Given the trajectory of all of Erie County's neighbors, why should we suspect it to not follow their lead?
My point is that they don't have the same trend. Erie moved to the left from 2016 to 2020, while Mahoning moved to the right. They're not the same at all.
I guess we'll see if that holds moving forward. Going back to your original question, I can't envision a situation where Harris wins Erie County but Trump wins nationally but I can absolutely envision a scenario where Trump wins Erie County but Harris wins nationally.
I agree with that.
To play devil's advocate, they did move in oppposite directions, but just a couple points still separates them -- I can see Kamala losing both or narrowly losing one and not the other.