Screaming "people are stupid" when trying to win their votes in an election is not a great strategy to winning elections. Talking down to voters is ALWAYS a bad idea, politically.
Even going back to "The Apprentice" I never got anything but a clueless nepo-asshole boss who blames subordinates for everything energy. Some people obviously get the "of the people" energy but i'll never understand it. I do remember being forced to watch "Celebrity Apprentice" on Fridays in a 2008-09 throwaway High School marketing class and feeling the same way I feel about him now. The teacher of said class however called him "A genius, who could one day be president." Sigh.
It's because he actually is your racist uncle who watches 18 hours of Hannity every day and complains about how alimony is unfair to men, even though he's never been married.
Well, at least they aren't herding. Some indications that this is partially about sample composition/differential response (maybe influenced by a post-debate Harris bump?): Michigan sample went from D+2 Harris +6 to R+1 Trump +3, Wisconsin sample went from D+2 Harris +1 to R+3 Trump +2, Pennsylvania sample went from D+3 Harris +5 to D+2 Harris +3.
The million dollar question is which electorate will show up.
No crazy crosstabs in PA but two of note: More Blacks are undecided than support Trump (80-8-9) and Harris has 9-12 point leads among three age demos but Trump is up 13 with 50-64 yet is only down two? How many younger Boomers & older Gen X are there?
MI & WI each have weird crosstabs. Harris only up 8 among MI women AND losing 18-34 by a bigger margin than 50-64? Trump up 20 among WI men AND hitting 50% with 35-49?
Trump ahead by fifteen points in the 18-34 age group in Michigan is complete nonsense. I don't care what the state culture is. Especially when Harris is up 49-48 with the 65+ crowd.
Oh great now this will continue to feed the slew of "Trump is gaining ground with youth and minority voters" articles. The articles reacting to outlier polls sprout up within days of the polls emerging.
Trump is a wounded animal and has a knack for hitting the right notes to move scared people to vote for him, Harris has become stagnant with certain groups of voters, understand that this is far from over and I've seen a lot of premature celebration on MSNBC and on Daily Kos. Harris should have been pointing out how bad the Trump economy really was and not trying to defend Biden's economy which a lot of Americans don't feel good about. I believe Q polls but also know that polls in 2024 are wildly divergent and all are off in their methodology in some way. Believe none of them. Trump is an ignorant buffoon but the people running his campaign. LeCavita and Wiles are most assuredly not.
We're not prematurely celebrating. We're encouraged. There's a difference. We realize it could all go south and we know it's a competitive turnout-based election.
In both 2016 and 2020, Trump's ceiling in Michigan was in the mid 47%. Given that he's neither an incumbent nor a newcomer anymore with his increasing unpopularity it's highly unlikely he's gonna break 50% there. Wisconsin is harder to say, but given the enthusiasm for Harris and strong voter engagement among her key groups, notably women and young voters I doubt she's in the same boat as Hillary. Also, the Wisconsin results suggest that a whopping 6% of the vote is going to 3rd party candidates, and right now there's been little indication of that, at least on Harris' end. At most they would be around 3% otherwise those are likely undecided or refused.
FYI, this is what Quinnipiac forecasted around this same time in 2020 (Oct 7 to be precise):
FLORIDA: Biden 51%, Trump 40%
PENNSYLVANIA: Biden 54%, Trump 41%
IOWA: Biden 50%, Trump 45%
I'm not sure I'd consider them a model of accuracy. And post-Dobbs and post-non-red-wave-2022, I don't think the polling errors are going to favor the Republicans this time.
The only thing you should take from it is polls are messed up beyond belief.
In the meantime, with all the money the Harris campaign has taken in, I'm sure they're taking NOTHING in the Blue Wall for granted and working the ground game like crazy.
I'm choosing to hang a lot of my hopes on "the trend is your friend". Our over performance in so many down ballot elections since Dobbs carries a lot of weight with me. But still.
The sad reality which makes this very depressing is that we have to say things like this. This should just not be the case. Period. This should not be a close race by any stretch of the imagination. Win or lose, this election has brought out some of the worst of this country and it appears to have become the new normal. MSM bias, fake polls, convicted criminal nominees, and all he other bullshit that in every election previous would have gotten this asshole kicked out of the party and into jail, but here we are. With everything going on we get this crap and then we have to tell each other to keep working hard. WTF?!?!? Look, if we win, and yes I have to use IF. If we win, this will not be the end of it. These idiots who support this asshole are still out there and they will continue to vote stupid. The media will do what they do and we will continue to live in a world where normalcy is gone forever and after awhile you just give up.
Maybe you give up. Some of us have no such luxury while we're living in this country. What do you think happened to my relatives in Poland because of the non-fascists in Germany who "gave up"?
Quinnipiac has had a quirky reputation of either producing very accurate results or very off outlier results at times. When you mix them in with the partisan and sus polls like Atlas, it becomes pure chaos, esp since they're an "A rated" nonpartisan pollster.
Great points, Alkatt, especially your reference to 2020.
Someone else mentioned that, in August, Quinnipiac explicitly acknowledged that it was altering its turnout model to show much heavier Republican participation and slightly less participation by Democrats. In other words, they were going forward with a model that closely resembled 2020 turnout.
After Democrats over-performing polls in the midterms and in just about every post-Dobbs election & special election, I would argue that Quinnipiac is making a highly questionable choice.
I'm worried about these 3 states, but Quinnipiac's reputation and accuracy haven't been anywhere near good in the longest time, huge outlier here. Whitmer, Shapiro, Evers need to get the well-oiled GOTV machine on the ground out in force to get Kamala over the finish line, because 4 more years of Donald is like being forced to drink p*ss!! 💙🇺🇲😢🙏
Because of one fucking poll? Are you trolling? Above, you suggested that Harris raising $1 billion might not have helped. Um, welcome and thanks for your first 2 posts...
No I am not trolling. I am reading all the above posts and comments and coming to a conclusion thank you. There were many people who stated that in the early days of the Kamala campaign that it felt like 2008. I am also reading comments from others stating that they are concerned that Kamala is not doing this or that. If she has raised 1 billion, you would think that she would be using that to hit places that are needed and places to grow. NO, it is not off of one fucking poll. I a bit smarter than that. It's off of all the comments here and kos.
PENNSYLVANIA: Harris 49%, Trump 46%, other candidates 2%
MICHIGAN: Trump 50%, Harris 47%, other candidates 2%
WISCONSIN: Trump 48%, Harris 46%, other candidates 2)
Quinnipiac
Casey 51 McCormick 43
Slotkin 48 Roger’s 48
Baldwin 50 Hovde 46
Hard to imagine MI being 6 point to the right of PA.
I wonder who Trump-Baldwin voters are.
My guess: populist voters. Less "left/right" aligned more "us/them" aligned. Hovde and Harris don't exactly exude "of the people" energy.
And trump does? People are so stupid!
Screaming "people are stupid" when trying to win their votes in an election is not a great strategy to winning elections. Talking down to voters is ALWAYS a bad idea, politically.
Fortunately, I'm not campaigning for anything, so I'll continue to call stupid idiots stupid.
Even going back to "The Apprentice" I never got anything but a clueless nepo-asshole boss who blames subordinates for everything energy. Some people obviously get the "of the people" energy but i'll never understand it. I do remember being forced to watch "Celebrity Apprentice" on Fridays in a 2008-09 throwaway High School marketing class and feeling the same way I feel about him now. The teacher of said class however called him "A genius, who could one day be president." Sigh.
It's because he actually is your racist uncle who watches 18 hours of Hannity every day and complains about how alimony is unfair to men, even though he's never been married.
Lol I think most of those boxes were checked then but if he's still alive I hope he had a better life these last 15 years.
I've loathed Trump since the 80's and never understood his appeal. But I guess carnivals have a midway for a reason, most people are rubes.
Well, at least they aren't herding. Some indications that this is partially about sample composition/differential response (maybe influenced by a post-debate Harris bump?): Michigan sample went from D+2 Harris +6 to R+1 Trump +3, Wisconsin sample went from D+2 Harris +1 to R+3 Trump +2, Pennsylvania sample went from D+3 Harris +5 to D+2 Harris +3.
The million dollar question is which electorate will show up.
That's where the ground game comes in. Thank God for Ben Wikler.
No crazy crosstabs in PA but two of note: More Blacks are undecided than support Trump (80-8-9) and Harris has 9-12 point leads among three age demos but Trump is up 13 with 50-64 yet is only down two? How many younger Boomers & older Gen X are there?
MI & WI each have weird crosstabs. Harris only up 8 among MI women AND losing 18-34 by a bigger margin than 50-64? Trump up 20 among WI men AND hitting 50% with 35-49?
Trump ahead by fifteen points in the 18-34 age group in Michigan is complete nonsense. I don't care what the state culture is. Especially when Harris is up 49-48 with the 65+ crowd.
Non College whites?
Oh great now this will continue to feed the slew of "Trump is gaining ground with youth and minority voters" articles. The articles reacting to outlier polls sprout up within days of the polls emerging.
Trump is a wounded animal and has a knack for hitting the right notes to move scared people to vote for him, Harris has become stagnant with certain groups of voters, understand that this is far from over and I've seen a lot of premature celebration on MSNBC and on Daily Kos. Harris should have been pointing out how bad the Trump economy really was and not trying to defend Biden's economy which a lot of Americans don't feel good about. I believe Q polls but also know that polls in 2024 are wildly divergent and all are off in their methodology in some way. Believe none of them. Trump is an ignorant buffoon but the people running his campaign. LeCavita and Wiles are most assuredly not.
We're not prematurely celebrating. We're encouraged. There's a difference. We realize it could all go south and we know it's a competitive turnout-based election.
In both 2016 and 2020, Trump's ceiling in Michigan was in the mid 47%. Given that he's neither an incumbent nor a newcomer anymore with his increasing unpopularity it's highly unlikely he's gonna break 50% there. Wisconsin is harder to say, but given the enthusiasm for Harris and strong voter engagement among her key groups, notably women and young voters I doubt she's in the same boat as Hillary. Also, the Wisconsin results suggest that a whopping 6% of the vote is going to 3rd party candidates, and right now there's been little indication of that, at least on Harris' end. At most they would be around 3% otherwise those are likely undecided or refused.
FYI, this is what Quinnipiac forecasted around this same time in 2020 (Oct 7 to be precise):
FLORIDA: Biden 51%, Trump 40%
PENNSYLVANIA: Biden 54%, Trump 41%
IOWA: Biden 50%, Trump 45%
I'm not sure I'd consider them a model of accuracy. And post-Dobbs and post-non-red-wave-2022, I don't think the polling errors are going to favor the Republicans this time.
It's really harshing my mellow to see her under polling where Biden was. I can hope that they are wrong in the other direction... But...
The only thing you should take from it is polls are messed up beyond belief.
In the meantime, with all the money the Harris campaign has taken in, I'm sure they're taking NOTHING in the Blue Wall for granted and working the ground game like crazy.
I'm choosing to hang a lot of my hopes on "the trend is your friend". Our over performance in so many down ballot elections since Dobbs carries a lot of weight with me. But still.
The sad reality which makes this very depressing is that we have to say things like this. This should just not be the case. Period. This should not be a close race by any stretch of the imagination. Win or lose, this election has brought out some of the worst of this country and it appears to have become the new normal. MSM bias, fake polls, convicted criminal nominees, and all he other bullshit that in every election previous would have gotten this asshole kicked out of the party and into jail, but here we are. With everything going on we get this crap and then we have to tell each other to keep working hard. WTF?!?!? Look, if we win, and yes I have to use IF. If we win, this will not be the end of it. These idiots who support this asshole are still out there and they will continue to vote stupid. The media will do what they do and we will continue to live in a world where normalcy is gone forever and after awhile you just give up.
Maybe you give up. Some of us have no such luxury while we're living in this country. What do you think happened to my relatives in Poland because of the non-fascists in Germany who "gave up"?
With respect, you might want to take a few days away from politics(maybe watch the great sports available this weekend)
He's not wrong
Could be; could be not; it has nothing to do with my post
Quinnipiac has had a quirky reputation of either producing very accurate results or very off outlier results at times. When you mix them in with the partisan and sus polls like Atlas, it becomes pure chaos, esp since they're an "A rated" nonpartisan pollster.
Great points, Alkatt, especially your reference to 2020.
Someone else mentioned that, in August, Quinnipiac explicitly acknowledged that it was altering its turnout model to show much heavier Republican participation and slightly less participation by Democrats. In other words, they were going forward with a model that closely resembled 2020 turnout.
After Democrats over-performing polls in the midterms and in just about every post-Dobbs election & special election, I would argue that Quinnipiac is making a highly questionable choice.
Well... I don't love that.
I'm worried about these 3 states, but Quinnipiac's reputation and accuracy haven't been anywhere near good in the longest time, huge outlier here. Whitmer, Shapiro, Evers need to get the well-oiled GOTV machine on the ground out in force to get Kamala over the finish line, because 4 more years of Donald is like being forced to drink p*ss!! 💙🇺🇲😢🙏
I guess the 2008 vibes are now officially dead.
Because of one fucking poll? Are you trolling? Above, you suggested that Harris raising $1 billion might not have helped. Um, welcome and thanks for your first 2 posts...
No I am not trolling. I am reading all the above posts and comments and coming to a conclusion thank you. There were many people who stated that in the early days of the Kamala campaign that it felt like 2008. I am also reading comments from others stating that they are concerned that Kamala is not doing this or that. If she has raised 1 billion, you would think that she would be using that to hit places that are needed and places to grow. NO, it is not off of one fucking poll. I a bit smarter than that. It's off of all the comments here and kos.
You're misreading comments, but why would you think comments here, still less on kos really mean anything about the actual state of the race?
What 2008 vibes? I think the best we could realistically hope for was 2020 vibes.