In both 2016 and 2020, Trump's ceiling in Michigan was in the mid 47%. Given that he's neither an incumbent nor a newcomer anymore with his increasing unpopularity it's highly unlikely he's gonna break 50% there. Wisconsin is harder to say, but given the enthusiasm for Harris and strong voter engagement among her key groups, notably wome…
In both 2016 and 2020, Trump's ceiling in Michigan was in the mid 47%. Given that he's neither an incumbent nor a newcomer anymore with his increasing unpopularity it's highly unlikely he's gonna break 50% there. Wisconsin is harder to say, but given the enthusiasm for Harris and strong voter engagement among her key groups, notably women and young voters I doubt she's in the same boat as Hillary. Also, the Wisconsin results suggest that a whopping 6% of the vote is going to 3rd party candidates, and right now there's been little indication of that, at least on Harris' end. At most they would be around 3% otherwise those are likely undecided or refused.
FYI, this is what Quinnipiac forecasted around this same time in 2020 (Oct 7 to be precise):
FLORIDA: Biden 51%, Trump 40%
PENNSYLVANIA: Biden 54%, Trump 41%
IOWA: Biden 50%, Trump 45%
I'm not sure I'd consider them a model of accuracy. And post-Dobbs and post-non-red-wave-2022, I don't think the polling errors are going to favor the Republicans this time.
The only thing you should take from it is polls are messed up beyond belief.
In the meantime, with all the money the Harris campaign has taken in, I'm sure they're taking NOTHING in the Blue Wall for granted and working the ground game like crazy.
I'm choosing to hang a lot of my hopes on "the trend is your friend". Our over performance in so many down ballot elections since Dobbs carries a lot of weight with me. But still.
The sad reality which makes this very depressing is that we have to say things like this. This should just not be the case. Period. This should not be a close race by any stretch of the imagination. Win or lose, this election has brought out some of the worst of this country and it appears to have become the new normal. MSM bias, fake polls, convicted criminal nominees, and all he other bullshit that in every election previous would have gotten this asshole kicked out of the party and into jail, but here we are. With everything going on we get this crap and then we have to tell each other to keep working hard. WTF?!?!? Look, if we win, and yes I have to use IF. If we win, this will not be the end of it. These idiots who support this asshole are still out there and they will continue to vote stupid. The media will do what they do and we will continue to live in a world where normalcy is gone forever and after awhile you just give up.
Maybe you give up. Some of us have no such luxury while we're living in this country. What do you think happened to my relatives in Poland because of the non-fascists in Germany who "gave up"?
Quinnipiac has had a quirky reputation of either producing very accurate results or very off outlier results at times. When you mix them in with the partisan and sus polls like Atlas, it becomes pure chaos, esp since they're an "A rated" nonpartisan pollster.
Great points, Alkatt, especially your reference to 2020.
Someone else mentioned that, in August, Quinnipiac explicitly acknowledged that it was altering its turnout model to show much heavier Republican participation and slightly less participation by Democrats. In other words, they were going forward with a model that closely resembled 2020 turnout.
After Democrats over-performing polls in the midterms and in just about every post-Dobbs election & special election, I would argue that Quinnipiac is making a highly questionable choice.
In both 2016 and 2020, Trump's ceiling in Michigan was in the mid 47%. Given that he's neither an incumbent nor a newcomer anymore with his increasing unpopularity it's highly unlikely he's gonna break 50% there. Wisconsin is harder to say, but given the enthusiasm for Harris and strong voter engagement among her key groups, notably women and young voters I doubt she's in the same boat as Hillary. Also, the Wisconsin results suggest that a whopping 6% of the vote is going to 3rd party candidates, and right now there's been little indication of that, at least on Harris' end. At most they would be around 3% otherwise those are likely undecided or refused.
FYI, this is what Quinnipiac forecasted around this same time in 2020 (Oct 7 to be precise):
FLORIDA: Biden 51%, Trump 40%
PENNSYLVANIA: Biden 54%, Trump 41%
IOWA: Biden 50%, Trump 45%
I'm not sure I'd consider them a model of accuracy. And post-Dobbs and post-non-red-wave-2022, I don't think the polling errors are going to favor the Republicans this time.
It's really harshing my mellow to see her under polling where Biden was. I can hope that they are wrong in the other direction... But...
The only thing you should take from it is polls are messed up beyond belief.
In the meantime, with all the money the Harris campaign has taken in, I'm sure they're taking NOTHING in the Blue Wall for granted and working the ground game like crazy.
I'm choosing to hang a lot of my hopes on "the trend is your friend". Our over performance in so many down ballot elections since Dobbs carries a lot of weight with me. But still.
The sad reality which makes this very depressing is that we have to say things like this. This should just not be the case. Period. This should not be a close race by any stretch of the imagination. Win or lose, this election has brought out some of the worst of this country and it appears to have become the new normal. MSM bias, fake polls, convicted criminal nominees, and all he other bullshit that in every election previous would have gotten this asshole kicked out of the party and into jail, but here we are. With everything going on we get this crap and then we have to tell each other to keep working hard. WTF?!?!? Look, if we win, and yes I have to use IF. If we win, this will not be the end of it. These idiots who support this asshole are still out there and they will continue to vote stupid. The media will do what they do and we will continue to live in a world where normalcy is gone forever and after awhile you just give up.
Maybe you give up. Some of us have no such luxury while we're living in this country. What do you think happened to my relatives in Poland because of the non-fascists in Germany who "gave up"?
With respect, you might want to take a few days away from politics(maybe watch the great sports available this weekend)
He's not wrong
Could be; could be not; it has nothing to do with my post
Quinnipiac has had a quirky reputation of either producing very accurate results or very off outlier results at times. When you mix them in with the partisan and sus polls like Atlas, it becomes pure chaos, esp since they're an "A rated" nonpartisan pollster.
Great points, Alkatt, especially your reference to 2020.
Someone else mentioned that, in August, Quinnipiac explicitly acknowledged that it was altering its turnout model to show much heavier Republican participation and slightly less participation by Democrats. In other words, they were going forward with a model that closely resembled 2020 turnout.
After Democrats over-performing polls in the midterms and in just about every post-Dobbs election & special election, I would argue that Quinnipiac is making a highly questionable choice.