Fair. It’s possible I’d put it on the very end of the bell curve with about equal probability of a 7 point win for Brown. I think the current polls are probably pretty accurate and Brown ends up holding on by a point or two.
I might have to think about it a little more but initial thought is an Osborne win in NE is about as likely as a decisive (5 pt) Moreno win in OH. That’s probably a little bit too optimistic but not by much.
I have to say, a ~5-point win by Moreno would be shocking but not that surprising. I have to believe that's possible.
Fair. It’s possible I’d put it on the very end of the bell curve with about equal probability of a 7 point win for Brown. I think the current polls are probably pretty accurate and Brown ends up holding on by a point or two.
I might have to think about it a little more but initial thought is an Osborne win in NE is about as likely as a decisive (5 pt) Moreno win in OH. That’s probably a little bit too optimistic but not by much.
I can see it sure, but imo if Brown were to lose it would be by a razor thin margin(5 seems kinda high to me)