Same with high inflation - that was in the past - it was around 2.5% on election day . The past inflation wave still hurt her. Trump has no inflation mitigation concepts - he may actually achieve the opposite.
He ran on an overtly inflationary, anti-growth platform. Tariffs are directly inflationary and will also drive up business costs. Deportations will drive up business costs by creating labor shortages, and also dissuade future immigration, exacerbating the labor shortage. Massive tax cuts will drive up demand while his other policies restrict supply. Perfect setup for double-digit inflation. The only way we'll avoid another bout of inflation is if he doesn't do what he ran on.
The business community seems to be counting on that. Ultimately, I suspect Wall Street gets its way. Tariffs and deportations will be limited, but Trump will do just enough to get credit with his blue-collar base.
I think one of the biggest problems we're going to be facing is that inflation has indeed quieted tremendously and Trump is going to be able to crow about lowering it, because no one remembers anything, apparently.
The market movements seem to indicate that they expect tax cut extensions and deregulation but not tariffs or deportations. Wall Street got almost everything it wanted the first time, but this admin seems to have a lot more nationalist zealots and fewer Wall Street types.
I think one of the main take aways from this election is in fact that the Wall Street types have basically lost the party.
Even the business men in Trumps sphere a wacky tech weirdos like Vivek and Musk, not traditional finance types. Like you arent going to see a Steve Mnuchin at Treasury this time around.
This is why you are starting to see the populists gain ground in the party. Freed of the constraints of pleasing businessmen (beyond maybe some simple tax cuts) they are free to run on anti-monopolist visions like Josh Hawley, or on regulating the food additive industry like RFK Jr.
Even their plan to destroy the federal government seem to be much more about Christian nationalism (in the case of defunding the DoEd) or simple revenge on a liberal voting block who MAGAs and the Elon's of the world think have had it too easy.
I will be stunned if RFK Jr really is allowed to heavily regulate the food additive industry, including drastically reducing the use of high-fructose corn syrup in a myriad of foods.
Likewise, I will be thoroughly shocked if Trump pursues an anti-monopolist program – perhaps by keeping Lina Khan in place as Chair of the FTC.
I would be shocked too - but the idea that the GOP presidents HHS sec pick is even floating these ideas is a drastic departure. Same with Hawley's focus on a variety of monopolies (not just tech).
Unemployment rate is quite low, but you also gotta factor in the fact that this doesn't include the people that don't report. Also many people are still not making enough money to keep up with rising cost of living from inflation. There's also the fact that increasingly more Americans work multiple jobs now just to make enough to keep up. Hell in STEM there's been over the past few months mass layoffs. Granted, Biden has managed to stem much of the layoffs somewhat, but not nearly enough to help Harris eke out a win.
We have other metrics that measure those people and they are all pretty much showing a super strong economy. Workforce participation for prime age workers is at levels we have only seen in the late 90s.
I'm not entirely sure how true that is and even if we do accept the economy has been doing well, which I think it has been, you still have to factor in inflation being at an all time high. It can simultaneously be the case that the economy is thriving and people are still struggling to make ends meet. Clearly, this was expressed by more blue collar workers across all races and younger folks entering the job and housing market. I do suspect it was inflation ultimately that sunk Harris. It's not unprecedented either. Stagflation was largely credited to Carter's defeat in 1980 alongside high gas prices. Fairly or unfairly, the party in power tends to pay dearly when you have a significant economic turmoil. If Trump was president presiding over high inflation, I'd suspect he'd lose too. In fact I'm willing to bet that inflation will worsen under him and by 2026 and 2028 voters will make him and the GOP pay heavily for it.
We dont have stagflation. If the people voting now had lived through that they would have largely scoffed off the 2021-2023 bout of inflation.
But yeah - it was inflation. The underlying economy sans the inflation is basically as good as it will get - 1999 levels. If we didnt have inflation we'd be due for a half a dozen movies about how the worst thing that could happen to a man is to have a good paying office job that is simply unfulfilling.
At the macroeconomic level, we do have a growing economy.
However, whether it be what I get in my LinkedIn newsfeed or reports I read, there are regular layoffs happening. They are mainly in tech companies, but not for reasons showing we're in a recession (we are not). It's because running business while companies can still grow has been made harder because of inflation. AI developments and tech companies are having to restructure and streamline operations all the time. Even large consulting companies (my industry) have had to deal with more than typical layoffs and that's in direct proportion due to the over investment during the pandemic. It's led to many complications.
Also, in 2024 it's become much harder to land a job quickly because of the fierce competition. It may differ from company to industry but I have heard many horror stories posted on LinkedIn about people taking longer than typical to get hired. Plenty of companies go through excessive rounds of interviews for candidates beyond what is typical.
The economy will likely cool down and get to a sense of normalcy once interest rates get lower but for now, it's still a complicated picture.
Weak job market? That’s not accurate.
Same with high inflation - that was in the past - it was around 2.5% on election day . The past inflation wave still hurt her. Trump has no inflation mitigation concepts - he may actually achieve the opposite.
He ran on an overtly inflationary, anti-growth platform. Tariffs are directly inflationary and will also drive up business costs. Deportations will drive up business costs by creating labor shortages, and also dissuade future immigration, exacerbating the labor shortage. Massive tax cuts will drive up demand while his other policies restrict supply. Perfect setup for double-digit inflation. The only way we'll avoid another bout of inflation is if he doesn't do what he ran on.
The business community seems to be counting on that. Ultimately, I suspect Wall Street gets its way. Tariffs and deportations will be limited, but Trump will do just enough to get credit with his blue-collar base.
I think one of the biggest problems we're going to be facing is that inflation has indeed quieted tremendously and Trump is going to be able to crow about lowering it, because no one remembers anything, apparently.
The market movements seem to indicate that they expect tax cut extensions and deregulation but not tariffs or deportations. Wall Street got almost everything it wanted the first time, but this admin seems to have a lot more nationalist zealots and fewer Wall Street types.
We’ll see to what extent guys like Scott Bessent can cool the saucer on that front
I had to google him. He seems like a typical Wall Street type. I figured Trump would just pick some bitcoin bro for Treasury.
Steve Mnuchin was probably the best cabinet secretary from Trump I, but seemed to exert influence only on things Trump didn't care about.
Do we know Bessent will even be in the admin? Wasn't Musk pushing for Lutnick?
Yes, though it sounded like Bessent was frontrunner for some time (Lutnick isn’t a crazy person either, though)
I mean, wasn't Lutnick the one at the MSG rally foaming at the mouth at the idea of going back to the Gilded Age?
I think one of the main take aways from this election is in fact that the Wall Street types have basically lost the party.
Even the business men in Trumps sphere a wacky tech weirdos like Vivek and Musk, not traditional finance types. Like you arent going to see a Steve Mnuchin at Treasury this time around.
This is why you are starting to see the populists gain ground in the party. Freed of the constraints of pleasing businessmen (beyond maybe some simple tax cuts) they are free to run on anti-monopolist visions like Josh Hawley, or on regulating the food additive industry like RFK Jr.
Even their plan to destroy the federal government seem to be much more about Christian nationalism (in the case of defunding the DoEd) or simple revenge on a liberal voting block who MAGAs and the Elon's of the world think have had it too easy.
I will be stunned if RFK Jr really is allowed to heavily regulate the food additive industry, including drastically reducing the use of high-fructose corn syrup in a myriad of foods.
Likewise, I will be thoroughly shocked if Trump pursues an anti-monopolist program – perhaps by keeping Lina Khan in place as Chair of the FTC.
I would be shocked too - but the idea that the GOP presidents HHS sec pick is even floating these ideas is a drastic departure. Same with Hawley's focus on a variety of monopolies (not just tech).
There are way less Wall Street types around him this time though. We’ll see. That set still has a lot of influence with the Senate
Only if they can lend lots of Republican senators a spine!
Unemployment rate is quite low, but you also gotta factor in the fact that this doesn't include the people that don't report. Also many people are still not making enough money to keep up with rising cost of living from inflation. There's also the fact that increasingly more Americans work multiple jobs now just to make enough to keep up. Hell in STEM there's been over the past few months mass layoffs. Granted, Biden has managed to stem much of the layoffs somewhat, but not nearly enough to help Harris eke out a win.
We have other metrics that measure those people and they are all pretty much showing a super strong economy. Workforce participation for prime age workers is at levels we have only seen in the late 90s.
I'm not entirely sure how true that is and even if we do accept the economy has been doing well, which I think it has been, you still have to factor in inflation being at an all time high. It can simultaneously be the case that the economy is thriving and people are still struggling to make ends meet. Clearly, this was expressed by more blue collar workers across all races and younger folks entering the job and housing market. I do suspect it was inflation ultimately that sunk Harris. It's not unprecedented either. Stagflation was largely credited to Carter's defeat in 1980 alongside high gas prices. Fairly or unfairly, the party in power tends to pay dearly when you have a significant economic turmoil. If Trump was president presiding over high inflation, I'd suspect he'd lose too. In fact I'm willing to bet that inflation will worsen under him and by 2026 and 2028 voters will make him and the GOP pay heavily for it.
We dont have stagflation. If the people voting now had lived through that they would have largely scoffed off the 2021-2023 bout of inflation.
But yeah - it was inflation. The underlying economy sans the inflation is basically as good as it will get - 1999 levels. If we didnt have inflation we'd be due for a half a dozen movies about how the worst thing that could happen to a man is to have a good paying office job that is simply unfulfilling.
Here's perspective:
At the macroeconomic level, we do have a growing economy.
However, whether it be what I get in my LinkedIn newsfeed or reports I read, there are regular layoffs happening. They are mainly in tech companies, but not for reasons showing we're in a recession (we are not). It's because running business while companies can still grow has been made harder because of inflation. AI developments and tech companies are having to restructure and streamline operations all the time. Even large consulting companies (my industry) have had to deal with more than typical layoffs and that's in direct proportion due to the over investment during the pandemic. It's led to many complications.
Also, in 2024 it's become much harder to land a job quickly because of the fierce competition. It may differ from company to industry but I have heard many horror stories posted on LinkedIn about people taking longer than typical to get hired. Plenty of companies go through excessive rounds of interviews for candidates beyond what is typical.
The economy will likely cool down and get to a sense of normalcy once interest rates get lower but for now, it's still a complicated picture.
My (very large) employer is laying off, cutting benefits, and letting salaries slip.
And yet labor share of income is not so hot.