He ran on an overtly inflationary, anti-growth platform. Tariffs are directly inflationary and will also drive up business costs. Deportations will drive up business costs by creating labor shortages, and also dissuade future immigration, exacerbating the labor shortage. Massive tax cuts will drive up demand while his other policies rest…
He ran on an overtly inflationary, anti-growth platform. Tariffs are directly inflationary and will also drive up business costs. Deportations will drive up business costs by creating labor shortages, and also dissuade future immigration, exacerbating the labor shortage. Massive tax cuts will drive up demand while his other policies restrict supply. Perfect setup for double-digit inflation. The only way we'll avoid another bout of inflation is if he doesn't do what he ran on.
The business community seems to be counting on that. Ultimately, I suspect Wall Street gets its way. Tariffs and deportations will be limited, but Trump will do just enough to get credit with his blue-collar base.
I think one of the biggest problems we're going to be facing is that inflation has indeed quieted tremendously and Trump is going to be able to crow about lowering it, because no one remembers anything, apparently.
The market movements seem to indicate that they expect tax cut extensions and deregulation but not tariffs or deportations. Wall Street got almost everything it wanted the first time, but this admin seems to have a lot more nationalist zealots and fewer Wall Street types.
I think one of the main take aways from this election is in fact that the Wall Street types have basically lost the party.
Even the business men in Trumps sphere a wacky tech weirdos like Vivek and Musk, not traditional finance types. Like you arent going to see a Steve Mnuchin at Treasury this time around.
This is why you are starting to see the populists gain ground in the party. Freed of the constraints of pleasing businessmen (beyond maybe some simple tax cuts) they are free to run on anti-monopolist visions like Josh Hawley, or on regulating the food additive industry like RFK Jr.
Even their plan to destroy the federal government seem to be much more about Christian nationalism (in the case of defunding the DoEd) or simple revenge on a liberal voting block who MAGAs and the Elon's of the world think have had it too easy.
I will be stunned if RFK Jr really is allowed to heavily regulate the food additive industry, including drastically reducing the use of high-fructose corn syrup in a myriad of foods.
Likewise, I will be thoroughly shocked if Trump pursues an anti-monopolist program – perhaps by keeping Lina Khan in place as Chair of the FTC.
I would be shocked too - but the idea that the GOP presidents HHS sec pick is even floating these ideas is a drastic departure. Same with Hawley's focus on a variety of monopolies (not just tech).
He ran on an overtly inflationary, anti-growth platform. Tariffs are directly inflationary and will also drive up business costs. Deportations will drive up business costs by creating labor shortages, and also dissuade future immigration, exacerbating the labor shortage. Massive tax cuts will drive up demand while his other policies restrict supply. Perfect setup for double-digit inflation. The only way we'll avoid another bout of inflation is if he doesn't do what he ran on.
The business community seems to be counting on that. Ultimately, I suspect Wall Street gets its way. Tariffs and deportations will be limited, but Trump will do just enough to get credit with his blue-collar base.
I think one of the biggest problems we're going to be facing is that inflation has indeed quieted tremendously and Trump is going to be able to crow about lowering it, because no one remembers anything, apparently.
The market movements seem to indicate that they expect tax cut extensions and deregulation but not tariffs or deportations. Wall Street got almost everything it wanted the first time, but this admin seems to have a lot more nationalist zealots and fewer Wall Street types.
We’ll see to what extent guys like Scott Bessent can cool the saucer on that front
I had to google him. He seems like a typical Wall Street type. I figured Trump would just pick some bitcoin bro for Treasury.
Steve Mnuchin was probably the best cabinet secretary from Trump I, but seemed to exert influence only on things Trump didn't care about.
Do we know Bessent will even be in the admin? Wasn't Musk pushing for Lutnick?
Yes, though it sounded like Bessent was frontrunner for some time (Lutnick isn’t a crazy person either, though)
I mean, wasn't Lutnick the one at the MSG rally foaming at the mouth at the idea of going back to the Gilded Age?
I think one of the main take aways from this election is in fact that the Wall Street types have basically lost the party.
Even the business men in Trumps sphere a wacky tech weirdos like Vivek and Musk, not traditional finance types. Like you arent going to see a Steve Mnuchin at Treasury this time around.
This is why you are starting to see the populists gain ground in the party. Freed of the constraints of pleasing businessmen (beyond maybe some simple tax cuts) they are free to run on anti-monopolist visions like Josh Hawley, or on regulating the food additive industry like RFK Jr.
Even their plan to destroy the federal government seem to be much more about Christian nationalism (in the case of defunding the DoEd) or simple revenge on a liberal voting block who MAGAs and the Elon's of the world think have had it too easy.
I will be stunned if RFK Jr really is allowed to heavily regulate the food additive industry, including drastically reducing the use of high-fructose corn syrup in a myriad of foods.
Likewise, I will be thoroughly shocked if Trump pursues an anti-monopolist program – perhaps by keeping Lina Khan in place as Chair of the FTC.
I would be shocked too - but the idea that the GOP presidents HHS sec pick is even floating these ideas is a drastic departure. Same with Hawley's focus on a variety of monopolies (not just tech).
There are way less Wall Street types around him this time though. We’ll see. That set still has a lot of influence with the Senate
Only if they can lend lots of Republican senators a spine!