Unemployment rate is quite low, but you also gotta factor in the fact that this doesn't include the people that don't report. Also many people are still not making enough money to keep up with rising cost of living from inflation. There's also the fact that increasingly more Americans work multiple jobs now just to make enough to keep up…
Unemployment rate is quite low, but you also gotta factor in the fact that this doesn't include the people that don't report. Also many people are still not making enough money to keep up with rising cost of living from inflation. There's also the fact that increasingly more Americans work multiple jobs now just to make enough to keep up. Hell in STEM there's been over the past few months mass layoffs. Granted, Biden has managed to stem much of the layoffs somewhat, but not nearly enough to help Harris eke out a win.
We have other metrics that measure those people and they are all pretty much showing a super strong economy. Workforce participation for prime age workers is at levels we have only seen in the late 90s.
I'm not entirely sure how true that is and even if we do accept the economy has been doing well, which I think it has been, you still have to factor in inflation being at an all time high. It can simultaneously be the case that the economy is thriving and people are still struggling to make ends meet. Clearly, this was expressed by more blue collar workers across all races and younger folks entering the job and housing market. I do suspect it was inflation ultimately that sunk Harris. It's not unprecedented either. Stagflation was largely credited to Carter's defeat in 1980 alongside high gas prices. Fairly or unfairly, the party in power tends to pay dearly when you have a significant economic turmoil. If Trump was president presiding over high inflation, I'd suspect he'd lose too. In fact I'm willing to bet that inflation will worsen under him and by 2026 and 2028 voters will make him and the GOP pay heavily for it.
We dont have stagflation. If the people voting now had lived through that they would have largely scoffed off the 2021-2023 bout of inflation.
But yeah - it was inflation. The underlying economy sans the inflation is basically as good as it will get - 1999 levels. If we didnt have inflation we'd be due for a half a dozen movies about how the worst thing that could happen to a man is to have a good paying office job that is simply unfulfilling.
At the macroeconomic level, we do have a growing economy.
However, whether it be what I get in my LinkedIn newsfeed or reports I read, there are regular layoffs happening. They are mainly in tech companies, but not for reasons showing we're in a recession (we are not). It's because running business while companies can still grow has been made harder because of inflation. AI developments and tech companies are having to restructure and streamline operations all the time. Even large consulting companies (my industry) have had to deal with more than typical layoffs and that's in direct proportion due to the over investment during the pandemic. It's led to many complications.
Also, in 2024 it's become much harder to land a job quickly because of the fierce competition. It may differ from company to industry but I have heard many horror stories posted on LinkedIn about people taking longer than typical to get hired. Plenty of companies go through excessive rounds of interviews for candidates beyond what is typical.
The economy will likely cool down and get to a sense of normalcy once interest rates get lower but for now, it's still a complicated picture.
Unemployment rate is quite low, but you also gotta factor in the fact that this doesn't include the people that don't report. Also many people are still not making enough money to keep up with rising cost of living from inflation. There's also the fact that increasingly more Americans work multiple jobs now just to make enough to keep up. Hell in STEM there's been over the past few months mass layoffs. Granted, Biden has managed to stem much of the layoffs somewhat, but not nearly enough to help Harris eke out a win.
We have other metrics that measure those people and they are all pretty much showing a super strong economy. Workforce participation for prime age workers is at levels we have only seen in the late 90s.
I'm not entirely sure how true that is and even if we do accept the economy has been doing well, which I think it has been, you still have to factor in inflation being at an all time high. It can simultaneously be the case that the economy is thriving and people are still struggling to make ends meet. Clearly, this was expressed by more blue collar workers across all races and younger folks entering the job and housing market. I do suspect it was inflation ultimately that sunk Harris. It's not unprecedented either. Stagflation was largely credited to Carter's defeat in 1980 alongside high gas prices. Fairly or unfairly, the party in power tends to pay dearly when you have a significant economic turmoil. If Trump was president presiding over high inflation, I'd suspect he'd lose too. In fact I'm willing to bet that inflation will worsen under him and by 2026 and 2028 voters will make him and the GOP pay heavily for it.
We dont have stagflation. If the people voting now had lived through that they would have largely scoffed off the 2021-2023 bout of inflation.
But yeah - it was inflation. The underlying economy sans the inflation is basically as good as it will get - 1999 levels. If we didnt have inflation we'd be due for a half a dozen movies about how the worst thing that could happen to a man is to have a good paying office job that is simply unfulfilling.
Here's perspective:
At the macroeconomic level, we do have a growing economy.
However, whether it be what I get in my LinkedIn newsfeed or reports I read, there are regular layoffs happening. They are mainly in tech companies, but not for reasons showing we're in a recession (we are not). It's because running business while companies can still grow has been made harder because of inflation. AI developments and tech companies are having to restructure and streamline operations all the time. Even large consulting companies (my industry) have had to deal with more than typical layoffs and that's in direct proportion due to the over investment during the pandemic. It's led to many complications.
Also, in 2024 it's become much harder to land a job quickly because of the fierce competition. It may differ from company to industry but I have heard many horror stories posted on LinkedIn about people taking longer than typical to get hired. Plenty of companies go through excessive rounds of interviews for candidates beyond what is typical.
The economy will likely cool down and get to a sense of normalcy once interest rates get lower but for now, it's still a complicated picture.
My (very large) employer is laying off, cutting benefits, and letting salaries slip.
And yet labor share of income is not so hot.