I hear you – but there is a vast gulf between the real economy and the "vibe economy". Here is a dramatic chart showing Republican voters suddenly feeling better about the economy, post-election, despite the reality not changing one iota.
I hear you – but there is a vast gulf between the real economy and the "vibe economy". Here is a dramatic chart showing Republican voters suddenly feeling better about the economy, post-election, despite the reality not changing one iota.
The GOP base is unreachable. The task is to reach the marginal, mostly low-info, low-engagement voters who sat out 2016, turned on Trump over the pandemic and/or the economy in 2020, and turned on us over inflation this year.
I don't disagree but Republicans lying about their dissatisfaction with 2-3% inflation is separate from that discussion. The hope/expectation for the voters you mention is they bolt if/when Trump blows up the economy with his fixations on Tarriffs and mass deportations and other unworkable inflationary policies. We'll have a better idea of what to run on for the "low-info low-engagement" voter by the end of 25.
I think the outreach needs to start now (warning people about the Trump agenda on any outlet that will hear us out, etc) as opposed to waiting for people to see for themselves.
Yes, but, if people completely forgot how awful the Trump years were in just four years, will they remember this messaging four years from now? Not saying we shouldn't message, just wondering how effective it will be.
I think online liberals really overestimate the extent to which regular people found the Trump years (pre-COVID) awful.
He took the Obama economy and it kept humming, and when it looked like it might stall in 2019, he bullied the Fed into cutting rates, keeping things going until COVID hit.
Not being a liberal myself I can’t really speak to that, but you may well be right. Still, his approval ratings were down in the 30s at the end of his term, so there must have been things people didn’t like.
People dont like Trump the man. But ultimately, all the clown show stuff didnt have much impact on the real economy. Tack on peoples concerns about immigration, and that more or less is it.
No. I dont think the debt or deficit matter that much and most people never think about it unless they are told to. And despite it being super high, and obstenstibly a good reason for why we had such high inflation, it didnt really come up that much.
A traditional GOP campaign would have slammed Biden/Harris in every add about the deficit. But Trump doesnt care - hes gonna explode the deficit.
By all means but we've been warning about him his agenda and his character for years. We'll have a better idea of what sticks in peoples minds when it's actually at risk of impacting their daily lives.
Shadow cabinet! Choose knowledgeable, highly-articulate people – and not necessarily just politicians.
Also: Messaging is extraordinarily difficult when there is a whole ecosystem (Fox etc) that isn’t even willing to let you voice your message to their audience!
We arent getting through the next four years without a recession in all liklihood. So the sooner Trump takes ownership, the more blame he will get when that recession comes.
With Trump’s announced policies, a recession (or depression) is all but certain. But I really don’t think a recession would be in the works had Kamala Harris won and been given Democratic majorities in the House and Senate.
I've learned not to try to predict how the economy will react to various policy proposals. I expect you are right, but who knows - we will have to wait and see.
Also, I think we are in the slowing portion of the economic cycle right now. Like even if Harris had had Dem majorities I dont know that we get through 2026 without at least a minor recession. Our worst case scenario is probably that we are even closer than it seems, and that basically Trump inherits a recession like Bush did, and by 2028 things are back to strong growth.
Yep. I get pilloried on this regularly but I maintain this was a media-induced vibesession starting from earlier this year. I make a middle class salary and do most of the grocery-shopping for my family . . . .prices for me clearly fell over the past year. And like most Americans my income rose from pre-Covid times. This is seen in consumer spending-Americans are spending on vacations, dining out, entertainment more than they were in Trump's economy. If Americans were struggling so much from inflation a la 1977 you'd see it reflected in decreases in consumer spending, and that never happened even at post-Covid inflation's peak. Yes there were persistent price spikes for renters/those who took out big loans over the past two years, but that's far from a majority of the electorate.
It was a vibecession, but I dont know that it was entirely media caused. The reality is that prices did spike, dramatically, and while some good came down, alot of it didnt, and nothing that I know of has gone back down to 2019 levels - maybe gas in some places?
I hear you – but there is a vast gulf between the real economy and the "vibe economy". Here is a dramatic chart showing Republican voters suddenly feeling better about the economy, post-election, despite the reality not changing one iota.
https://www.axios.com/2024/11/13/consumer-sentiment-republican-democrat-switch
How many Republicans are going to be celebrating 2-3% inflation in January?
The GOP base is unreachable. The task is to reach the marginal, mostly low-info, low-engagement voters who sat out 2016, turned on Trump over the pandemic and/or the economy in 2020, and turned on us over inflation this year.
I don't disagree but Republicans lying about their dissatisfaction with 2-3% inflation is separate from that discussion. The hope/expectation for the voters you mention is they bolt if/when Trump blows up the economy with his fixations on Tarriffs and mass deportations and other unworkable inflationary policies. We'll have a better idea of what to run on for the "low-info low-engagement" voter by the end of 25.
I think the outreach needs to start now (warning people about the Trump agenda on any outlet that will hear us out, etc) as opposed to waiting for people to see for themselves.
Yes, but, if people completely forgot how awful the Trump years were in just four years, will they remember this messaging four years from now? Not saying we shouldn't message, just wondering how effective it will be.
I think online liberals really overestimate the extent to which regular people found the Trump years (pre-COVID) awful.
He took the Obama economy and it kept humming, and when it looked like it might stall in 2019, he bullied the Fed into cutting rates, keeping things going until COVID hit.
Not being a liberal myself I can’t really speak to that, but you may well be right. Still, his approval ratings were down in the 30s at the end of his term, so there must have been things people didn’t like.
People dont like Trump the man. But ultimately, all the clown show stuff didnt have much impact on the real economy. Tack on peoples concerns about immigration, and that more or less is it.
Do you consider the deficit-based tax cut and vast increase in the national debt under Trump to be part of "the real economy"?
No. I dont think the debt or deficit matter that much and most people never think about it unless they are told to. And despite it being super high, and obstenstibly a good reason for why we had such high inflation, it didnt really come up that much.
A traditional GOP campaign would have slammed Biden/Harris in every add about the deficit. But Trump doesnt care - hes gonna explode the deficit.
By all means but we've been warning about him his agenda and his character for years. We'll have a better idea of what sticks in peoples minds when it's actually at risk of impacting their daily lives.
Shadow cabinet! Choose knowledgeable, highly-articulate people – and not necessarily just politicians.
Also: Messaging is extraordinarily difficult when there is a whole ecosystem (Fox etc) that isn’t even willing to let you voice your message to their audience!
By mid-late spring we will inevitably see the media do an about-face and start heralding the "historically strong Trump economy."
I'm already pre-annoyed.
We arent getting through the next four years without a recession in all liklihood. So the sooner Trump takes ownership, the more blame he will get when that recession comes.
With Trump’s announced policies, a recession (or depression) is all but certain. But I really don’t think a recession would be in the works had Kamala Harris won and been given Democratic majorities in the House and Senate.
I've learned not to try to predict how the economy will react to various policy proposals. I expect you are right, but who knows - we will have to wait and see.
Also, I think we are in the slowing portion of the economic cycle right now. Like even if Harris had had Dem majorities I dont know that we get through 2026 without at least a minor recession. Our worst case scenario is probably that we are even closer than it seems, and that basically Trump inherits a recession like Bush did, and by 2028 things are back to strong growth.
Yep. I get pilloried on this regularly but I maintain this was a media-induced vibesession starting from earlier this year. I make a middle class salary and do most of the grocery-shopping for my family . . . .prices for me clearly fell over the past year. And like most Americans my income rose from pre-Covid times. This is seen in consumer spending-Americans are spending on vacations, dining out, entertainment more than they were in Trump's economy. If Americans were struggling so much from inflation a la 1977 you'd see it reflected in decreases in consumer spending, and that never happened even at post-Covid inflation's peak. Yes there were persistent price spikes for renters/those who took out big loans over the past two years, but that's far from a majority of the electorate.
It was a vibecession, but I dont know that it was entirely media caused. The reality is that prices did spike, dramatically, and while some good came down, alot of it didnt, and nothing that I know of has gone back down to 2019 levels - maybe gas in some places?