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Toiler On the Sea's avatar

So New Jersey's <6% margin was probably one of the most WTF results of the election (VA, MN and to a lesser extent NH reverting to closer margins was more expected, although I thought Harris would pull closer to 2020 margins in those).

Like NY, was it primarily due to large Dem vote drop-off?

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Nov 18, 2024
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ProudNewEnglander's avatar

Did Harris actually invest in a ground game for reliably Democratic states? I thought her ground game was focused mostly on the swing states, and there, it worked - she got more votes than Biden in NC, GA, WI, and NV.

It's just that millions of people who don't follow politics but were pissed off about inflation showed up to vote against the governing party.

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Toiler On the Sea's avatar

Trump had no ground game in reliable states either (outside of his rallies in places like NYC and NM if you want to count that).

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Tom A's avatar

Sure - but as you would expect in an election where the incumbent president is pretty unpopular, his low propensity voters were easier to turn out than ours.

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Paleo's avatar

Yes, a 300,000 to 400,000 drop off. Plus, Latino switches in places like Passaic and Hudson counties.

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Zero Cool's avatar

Yes. In the city of Passaic in particular, which is my father's hometown, Hispanic residents represent the majority in terms of racial demographics in the city.

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axlee's avatar

DonтАЩt assume the past hold for the future.

Before the current party system kicked in 1992, California, New York, and Illinois were all swing states, decided by 2-4pt in marginally competitive 1988. New Jersey was considered lean R.

While most observers knew Bush was losing 1992 election, when the lopsided results came in from what we call safe Blue states, didnтАЩt people get the WTF feeling?

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Mark's avatar

I was surprised by Virginia and New Hampshire. Both seemed uniquely suited to trend Democrat this year, especially Virginia. Even there I underestimated the nonwhite working class shift to the right. As for New Hampshire, Harris will be the first Democrat to lose Sullivan County since Al Gore in 2000.

Since votes are still being tallied, I haven't yet done comparisons to 2020 in raw vote totals yet, but it's probably a safe bet there was a turnout drop in some or most of these jurisdictions.

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axlee's avatar

Which jurisdictions you are thinking? The turnout rate probably dropped, that is self evident as older voters exit, and younger voters enter the electorate and they are not voting at the same rate as the cohorts 4 year ago.

But so far the 7 certified states + WV which are done counting, only deep red WV/WY recorded a smaller than 2020 number of raw votes. (WV has a shrinking voting population.) NV/OK/SC/DE/SD/VT all recorded more votes than 2020. NH will absolutely have more votes as well. Virginia also has a higher number of total votes as of now.

The dark blue areas within dark blue states CA NY IL MD probably will see a drop of raw votes. But the numbers may not be as stark as the initial look the election night.

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ProudNewEnglander's avatar

Turnout in New Hampshire was higher this year than in 2020. My ward alone saw 250 more voters this time.

And Hillary didn't win Sullivan County in 2016 either.

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Mark's avatar

Damn you're right. Forgot that Hillary lost there as well.

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