I was surprised by Virginia and New Hampshire. Both seemed uniquely suited to trend Democrat this year, especially Virginia. Even there I underestimated the nonwhite working class shift to the right. As for New Hampshire, Harris will be the first Democrat to lose Sullivan County since Al Gore in 2000.
I was surprised by Virginia and New Hampshire. Both seemed uniquely suited to trend Democrat this year, especially Virginia. Even there I underestimated the nonwhite working class shift to the right. As for New Hampshire, Harris will be the first Democrat to lose Sullivan County since Al Gore in 2000.
Since votes are still being tallied, I haven't yet done comparisons to 2020 in raw vote totals yet, but it's probably a safe bet there was a turnout drop in some or most of these jurisdictions.
Which jurisdictions you are thinking? The turnout rate probably dropped, that is self evident as older voters exit, and younger voters enter the electorate and they are not voting at the same rate as the cohorts 4 year ago.
But so far the 7 certified states + WV which are done counting, only deep red WV/WY recorded a smaller than 2020 number of raw votes. (WV has a shrinking voting population.) NV/OK/SC/DE/SD/VT all recorded more votes than 2020. NH will absolutely have more votes as well. Virginia also has a higher number of total votes as of now.
The dark blue areas within dark blue states CA NY IL MD probably will see a drop of raw votes. But the numbers may not be as stark as the initial look the election night.
I was surprised by Virginia and New Hampshire. Both seemed uniquely suited to trend Democrat this year, especially Virginia. Even there I underestimated the nonwhite working class shift to the right. As for New Hampshire, Harris will be the first Democrat to lose Sullivan County since Al Gore in 2000.
Since votes are still being tallied, I haven't yet done comparisons to 2020 in raw vote totals yet, but it's probably a safe bet there was a turnout drop in some or most of these jurisdictions.
Which jurisdictions you are thinking? The turnout rate probably dropped, that is self evident as older voters exit, and younger voters enter the electorate and they are not voting at the same rate as the cohorts 4 year ago.
But so far the 7 certified states + WV which are done counting, only deep red WV/WY recorded a smaller than 2020 number of raw votes. (WV has a shrinking voting population.) NV/OK/SC/DE/SD/VT all recorded more votes than 2020. NH will absolutely have more votes as well. Virginia also has a higher number of total votes as of now.
The dark blue areas within dark blue states CA NY IL MD probably will see a drop of raw votes. But the numbers may not be as stark as the initial look the election night.
Turnout in New Hampshire was higher this year than in 2020. My ward alone saw 250 more voters this time.
And Hillary didn't win Sullivan County in 2016 either.
Damn you're right. Forgot that Hillary lost there as well.