In Florida, is there some weakening of the GOP hold? The Republican supermajority in the state legislature has rejected DeSantis's call for a special session and is supporting its own immigration bill instead of one he has pushed.
In Florida, is there some weakening of the GOP hold? The Republican supermajority in the state legislature has rejected DeSantis's call for a special session and is supporting its own immigration bill instead of one he has pushed.
There is no path to a D victory in Florida if weтАЩre now consistently losing Miami-Dade by 10 - we need to be winning that county by 20 to even have a chance.
The demographic trends are still bad. My home district, FL-22 (Boca/Coral Springs/Parkland), was consistently one of the most D districts in the state; itтАЩs now marginal. Given the people moving in and (perhaps just as importantly) the people moving out, I wouldnтАЩt be surprised if itтАЩs R held by the end of the decade.
Agreed. The most vulnerable seats in Florida right now are not the ones held by Anna Paulina Luna and Maria Salazar, it's the seats held by Lois Frankel and Debbie Wasserman-Schultz. The only scenario I can envision where Florida ceases to be a sponge for anti-tax cranks is if Trump's threat is actually acted upon and states have to take on their own disaster relief expenses independent from FEMA or the federal government. Until then, right wingers will continue to have it both ways....moving to Florida so that their fortunes are untaxed, and then demanding federal taxpayers foot the bill for rebuilding after every storm.
Will it? At this point Florida is so gone I'd rather it become a republican vote sink, with democrats leaving it for other states and republicans moving in. That helps our odds in other states.
But will that stop the anti-tax cranks from going there if they remain confident that federal disaster relief will always be there to make them whole in lieu of insurance?
All of them? Nah. More than today? Absolutely. ThereтАЩs already some small signs of instability and in affordability in Florida real estate compared to 5-6 years ago, to say nothing of the 2000s and 2010s boomtimes
I think it's way too early for this assessment; let's see how Trump performs here in the second term; DeSantis is definitely less popular now than 2 years ago when he won re-election
Even if you assume that FL has hit Peak Red and there's nowhere to go for Dems but up, it's going to take a lot to get it back to truly competitive, especially as Team Blue seemingly feels increasingly comfortable with triaging it.
But news of any encouraging developments would be welcome. The bipartisan revolt against DeSantis described above was a nice surprise.
In Florida, is there some weakening of the GOP hold? The Republican supermajority in the state legislature has rejected DeSantis's call for a special session and is supporting its own immigration bill instead of one he has pushed.
imo it all depends on Trump and how bad(or not so bad) he performs in the second term
There is no path to a D victory in Florida if weтАЩre now consistently losing Miami-Dade by 10 - we need to be winning that county by 20 to even have a chance.
The demographic trends are still bad. My home district, FL-22 (Boca/Coral Springs/Parkland), was consistently one of the most D districts in the state; itтАЩs now marginal. Given the people moving in and (perhaps just as importantly) the people moving out, I wouldnтАЩt be surprised if itтАЩs R held by the end of the decade.
Who's moving out?
Agreed. The most vulnerable seats in Florida right now are not the ones held by Anna Paulina Luna and Maria Salazar, it's the seats held by Lois Frankel and Debbie Wasserman-Schultz. The only scenario I can envision where Florida ceases to be a sponge for anti-tax cranks is if Trump's threat is actually acted upon and states have to take on their own disaster relief expenses independent from FEMA or the federal government. Until then, right wingers will continue to have it both ways....moving to Florida so that their fortunes are untaxed, and then demanding federal taxpayers foot the bill for rebuilding after every storm.
The continued collapse of FloridaтАЩs insurance industry seems a more immediate live threat to everyday life there than FEMA funding
which will benefit the Democrats
Will it? At this point Florida is so gone I'd rather it become a republican vote sink, with democrats leaving it for other states and republicans moving in. That helps our odds in other states.
I live here; I don't want that at all
I'm definitely sympathetic to that perspective! I don't want republicans in charge of where I live either.
exactly.. Lol
And yes the insurance collapse will benefit the out party
Same
But will that stop the anti-tax cranks from going there if they remain confident that federal disaster relief will always be there to make them whole in lieu of insurance?
All of them? Nah. More than today? Absolutely. ThereтАЩs already some small signs of instability and in affordability in Florida real estate compared to 5-6 years ago, to say nothing of the 2000s and 2010s boomtimes
not that simple, but I get your point
I think it's way too early for this assessment; let's see how Trump performs here in the second term; DeSantis is definitely less popular now than 2 years ago when he won re-election
Too early? How many consecutive cycles of Florida trending redder than the rest of the country do you need to see before you're convinced?
Trump could be just the remedy is all I am saying; our state without a FEMA would be a 3rd World country imo
Even if you assume that FL has hit Peak Red and there's nowhere to go for Dems but up, it's going to take a lot to get it back to truly competitive, especially as Team Blue seemingly feels increasingly comfortable with triaging it.
But news of any encouraging developments would be welcome. The bipartisan revolt against DeSantis described above was a nice surprise.
And could still support Republicans.
Wasn't Debbie Wasserman-Schultz redistricted to the new FL-25 whereas she previously served in FL-23 from 2013-2023?
Is the new FL-25 less or more blue than the previous FL-23?
That's one state where demographic creep *really* isn't helping. South Carolina would be a very distant second.