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Jonathan's avatar

I disagree about this last part though; Trump is his own brand electorally, that brand is not transferable to generic R imo

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Mike in MD's avatar

It works two ways: Generic R might not bring out the Trump cultists, at least not in force, but there are still probably a substantial number of GOP-inclined voters who refuse to vote for Trump but would for others with the red branding not too closely associated with him. (Many of them of course wouldn't vote for Harris, either and so may not be winnable for any Dem.)

But I think that if states like those listed (which weren't all "within 5 points", but that's nitpicky) didn't go red this time then they probably won't in 2028--note GOP dropoffs from 2004-08 and 2016-20 in many states.

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Toiler On the Sea's avatar

Yeah the margins in those states was even worse in 2016 but they proceeded to bounce back (we also didnt lose any surprise downballot races in those states). I think Trump carries unique strength but until Dems can punch their weight in the social media environment they are vulnerable in lots of places.

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