Morning Digest: Trump's anointed pick in Louisiana has a real fight on her hands
Julia Letlow is the latest Trump favorite to learn his wishes are not divine commands
Leading Off
LA-Sen
Donald Trump’s influence over his party faces yet another test on Saturday as Rep. Julia Letlow, his chosen candidate for U.S. Senate in Louisiana, heads into a surprisingly unpredictable runoff against state Treasurer John Fleming.
Letlow posted a tiny 40-38 lead in a recent survey conducted by BDPC on behalf of Alton Ashy, a lobbyist who has helped the congresswoman raise money. That tiny advantage, though, still represented an improvement from the 40-38 advantage for Fleming that BDPC reportedly found in a previous survey that Ashy declined to release.
But Fleming, a wealthy former congressman who was one of the founders of the far-right Freedom Caucus, says he’s the one with the momentum.
The treasurer led 45-40 in an internal poll from JMC Analytics that he released on Tuesday. The firm had given Letlow a bare 45-44 edge in a survey conducted just after the first round of voting on May 16.
The results of that opening bout—which saw Letlow take 45% of the vote—gave the congresswoman and her allies good reason to think she would easily capture the GOP nomination in the runoff. That prize would all but assure her of victory in the fall general election in this conservative state.
Fleming, though, managed to secure the second runoff spot by edging out Sen. Bill Cassidy, who had voted to convict Trump for his role in the Jan. 6 riots, by a 28-25 margin. But Fleming, who lacks the kind of high-profile allies Letlow has in her corner, went into round two as the decided underdog.
However, with Cassidy knocked out of contention, Fleming believes that voters will have other issues on their mind. (The senator has not taken sides in the runoff.)
The treasurer has emphasized his opposition to local projects promoting carbon capture, a process that involves capturing carbon dioxide and other emissions before they enter the atmosphere and storing them underground.
In comments to KSLA, Fleming charged that Letlow and one of her most prominent in-state supporters, Gov. Jeff Landry, think they can boost the state’s economy by turning it into a “toxic dump of carbon dioxide.”
Letlow has pushed back but has not expressed the same kind of hostility to carbon capture that Fleming has.
“If the project is not safe, if it does not have community finance, I believe it should not move forward,” she told the station. She also praised Landry’s “moratorium on the projects until they can be fully vetted.”
Landry’s forces, meanwhile, are doing what they can to sink Fleming. A super PAC connected to the governor recently launched an ad claiming that Fleming “would be the oldest first-term senator ever sworn in, serving in his 80s.”
While Fleming, who turns 75 next month, would be one of the oldest people ever elected to the Senate, he wouldn’t actually break the record. Vermont Democrat Peter Welch, who was elected to the upper chamber in 2022, was two months older than Fleming would be in January when he began serving.
Much of the talk surrounding this race, though, has centered on the preferences of a certain 80-year-old in the White House.
“I got that unbelievable, unimaginable call from the Big Man, and I don’t mean the Lord,” Letlow told her supporters on Monday. “He encouraged me to run for the seat, and that meant the world to me.”
Fleming, by contrast, has repeatedly claimed that Landry maneuvered behind the scenes to ensure Trump would back Letlow, accusing the governor of “election interference.”
Fleming, who served in the first Trump administration after his 2016 campaign for Louisiana’s other Senate seat fell flat, is hoping to pull off an upset by imploring Republicans to reject the governor’s pick.
“Jeff Landry, the lobbyists, and the political establishment have spent millions trying to control the outcome of this race,” Fleming posted on social media this week. “Why? Because they know I won’t go to Washington and be a vote for the carbon capture lobby and the special interests pushing their agenda on Louisiana.”
David Nir here, publisher of The Downballot! We love scouring the news to bring you the most important stories on the most important elections every day, but it takes a lot of work—and a lot of resources. If you’re able to help sustain our operations by becoming a paid subscriber today, we’d be incredibly grateful.
Governors
KS-Gov
An affiliate of the far-right Club for Growth is spending $2 million to attack state Insurance Commissioner Vicki Schmidt in the GOP primary for Kansas’ open governorship, The Hill reports.
The spot, from a group called the School Freedom Fund, charges that Schmidt “voted to give in-state tuition to illegal aliens” while featuring photos of gang members in a prison in El Salvador—photos that have regularly appeared in ads making racist appeals ever since they were taken by New York Times photographer Tomas Munita in 2012.
Neither the Club nor the School Freedom Fund has issued endorsements in this crowded race.
House
AZ-01
Leading the Future, a deep-pocketed political network funded by the AI industry, is spending $600,000 on ads boosting former Arizona Cardinals kicker Jay Feely in his bid for Congress, the Arizona Republic reports.
Feely, who is seeking the state’s open 1st District, a swingy constituency in the Phoenix area, has Donald Trump’s endorsement but not necessarily the inside track to the GOP nomination. A recent survey from NextGen Polling found Feely leading former state Rep. Joseph Chaplik just 25-23 ahead of the July 21 primary, with businessman John Trobough at 6.
Until this latest intervention, there’d been little outside spending on the Republican side. Democrats, by contrast, have a busy multi-way contest that’s seen more third-party involvement, with former TV anchor Marlene Galan-Woods receiving nearly $1 million in help from the Congressional Hispanic Caucus and a new group called Pro-Choice Majority Action. There’s been no recent polling, however.
MI-07
A new super PAC is airing the first negative ads of the Democratic primary in Michigan’s swingy 7th District, attacking diplomat Bridget Brink for serving as Donald Trump’s ambassador to Slovakia—ads that Brink’s campaign has demanded TV stations stop airing.
Referring to her as Trump’s “handpicked ambassador,” the ad, from a group called Michigan Values PAC, features footage of Trump holding a folder on which video of Brink’s confirmation hearing is superimposed. Brink is shown saying, “I’m honored to be President Trump’s nominee for the position of U.S. ambassador to the Slovak Republic.”
After her service in Slovakia, Brink was later appointed by Joe Biden to serve as ambassador to Ukraine shortly after Russia invaded in early 2022, a position she held until a few months into Trump’s second term.
The spot then charges that “after Trump berated Ukraine’s president, Brink agreed that Trump was ‘standing up for America in a way no president has ever had the courage to do before.’”
To make that claim, the ad features a tweet from the official account of the U.S. ambassador to Ukraine re-posting a tweet by Secretary of State Marco Rubio expressing those sentiments, with a translation into Ukrainian. It also replaces the account’s actual avatar, which is the Great Seal of the United States bearing the words “United States Embassy Kyiv,” with a photo of Brink.
The ad, which the Michigan Advance says is backed by at least $365,000, infuriated Brink’s campaign. According to the Detroit News, a lawyer for Brink sent a letter to local TV stations asking them to take the spot down on the grounds that it’s “false and misleading.”
“It is outright false and misleading to claim she is Trump’s ‘handpicked ambassador’ when her service was to our country under five presidents, from both parties, and she actively walked away from her distinguished career to stand up to Trump,” Brink’s attorney wrote.
The letter also noted that the Rubio post was retweeted by an official government account, not Brink’s personal account. It’s not clear whether any stations have complied with the campaign’s request.
A Brink supporter also filed a complaint with the Michigan Bureau of Elections alleging the ad failed to disclose the use of AI as required by state law. Michigan Values said in a statement that it did not use AI to make its commercial.
Brink’s team issued a press release accusing Michigan Values of working to support one of her rivals for the Democratic nod, former Navy SEAL Matt Maasdam. As the Detroit News noted, the PAC used the same media buying firm as VoteVets, which recently launched a $750,000 ad run on Maasdam’s behalf.
A third Democrat, climate activist William Lawrence, is also seeking the nomination to take on first-term Republican Rep. Tom Barrett.
NJ-07
For the first time in 111 days, New Jersey Rep. Tom Kean has been seen alive—by someone willing to say so, at least.
On Wednesday evening, New York Times reporter Tracey Tully visited his home in the town of Westfield, a wealthy suburban community just outside of New York City, and said the congressman “could be seen from the street … standing in a brightly lit front room.”
Kean then answered the door after Tulley rang, wearing “a dark suit and a red tie.”
“It’s good to see you,” he said. “I’ll talk to you next week. Thank you.” Kean, Tulley said, “declined additional comment and closed the door.”
Kean cast his last vote in Washington on March 5, then vanished from view. After his absence was first noted by the New Jersey Globe a few weeks later, aides repeatedly began insisting he would reappear “soon.” They said he was recovering from a medical condition but offered no details on what he was suffering from or where he was.
Last week, a spokesperson offered a timetable for Kean’s return for the first time, saying he would be back at work on June 30.
Ballot Measures
OH Ballot
Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine on Wednesday night vetoed a bill passed by fellow Republicans in the state legislature that would have required voters to include a copy of their ID when they either request an absentee ballot or mail one in.
The bill was designed to assuage hardliners who were unhappy that a separate amendment to enshrine the state’s existing voter ID requirement in the state constitution did not cover mail voting. That amendment will go before voters this fall.
The new requirements for mail ballots, though, upset a bipartisan group of local election administrators, who warned that the legislation would have a “dire” impact. In a lengthy veto statement, DeWine agreed, saying the measure “would not add any real security, and would create an additional and significant burden for Ohioans who vote by mail.”
He further pointed out that “requiring the photo ID for the mail-in ballot process does not provide election officials with any opportunity to verify if the ID picture matches the face of the voter and thereby serves as no additional verification of the voter’s true identity.”
GOP lawmakers could try to override DeWine’s veto, but as Signal Ohio notes, the legislature is not set to reconvene until after the November elections.
Mayors & County Leaders
Chicago, IL Mayor
Matt Brewer, a member of the Chicago Housing Authority board who has come into conflict with Mayor Brandon Johnson, announced Thursday that he’d oppose Johnson for reelection next year in what’s shaping up to be a packed contest.
Johnson and Brewer, who served as board chair, were once allies, but that was before the mayor attempted to install former Alderman Walter Burnett as the CHA’s CEO. Brewer and his colleagues argued both that Burnett was the wrong person to hold the role and that Johnson had overstepped his authority.
They instead picked Keith Pettigrew for this post, whom Johnson unsuccessfully attempted to block. The mayor also tried to dismiss Brewer as board chair, a conflict Brewer highlights in his announcement video.
“That’s right, I’m not going anywhere,” the candidate tells the audience. Brewer, who stepped down from his leadership post last month, continues, “[F]or too long we’ve been presented with a false choice about Chicago’s future. We can invest in our people without sacrificing our competitive edge.”
Brewer, who also noted his role as co-owner of The Wiener’s Circle—a restaurant long known as a place where customers and staff swear at one another—joins several other current and likely candidates in the race to lead America’s third-most populous city.
Johnson, who has posted poor approval ratings for much of his tenure, has yet to announce if he’ll seek a second term in 2027.
Prosecutors & Sheriffs
Hennepin County, MN Attorney
State Rep. Cedrick Frazier received an endorsement Thursday from Sen. Tina Smith, a fellow Democrat, ahead of the Aug. 11 nonpartisan primary for Hennepin County attorney. Frazier is one of five candidates competing for a spot in the fall general election to succeed incumbent Mary Moriarty, who is not seeking a second term.
Poll Pile
OH-Sen: Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research for the AARP:
Sherrod Brown (D): 48, Jon Husted (R-inc): 45.
CO-Gov (D): Public Policy Polling for Fighting for Colorado (pro-Phil Weiser):
Phil Weiser: 45, Michael Bennet: 36.
NY-Gov: Siena University:
Kathy Hochul (D-inc): 52, Bruce Blakeman (R): 32.
April: 49-33 Hochul.
OH-Gov: Fabrizio/Impact:
Amy Acton (D): 47, Vivek Ramaswamy (R): 44.
OK-Gov (R): Cygnal for Gentner Drummond:
Gentner Drummond: 44, Mike Mazzei: 42.
OK-Gov (R): Pulse Decision Science for the Club for Growth (pro-Mazzei):
Mazzei: 44, Drummond: 38.
AZ-02: GBAO for Jonathan Nez:
Eli Crane (R-inc): 44, Jonathan Nez (D): 41.
FL-07: Public Policy Polling for Bale Dalton:
Bale Dalton (D): 41, Cory Mills (R-inc): 39.
The poll was conducted May 20-21. The release did not mention any of the other Democrats or Republicans running.
El-Sayed the only Dem running ahead in latest poll? Does he have that much momentum?