Morning Digest: Why Georgia Democrats are fretting a special election next week

The GOP has flipped zero legislative seats in Trump 2.0, but that could soon change

Democrat Adrienne White is defending a vacant seat in the Georgia State Senate. (Credit: Adrienne White Facebook)

Leading Off

Special Elections

Georgia Democrats are warning that Republicans could flip a state Senate seat in a special election on Tuesday, an outcome that would leave Democrats down a member heading into a crucial special session devoted to redistricting that begins the very next day.

“In a district that would normally be an easy win for Democrats, Republican voters are vastly outpacing Democratic voters in the first three days,” former state Rep. Beth Moore told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution of the early voting numbers in the race for the 7th Senate District, based in Gwinnett County outside Atlanta.

The problem is one of timing. As Moore alluded, Democrat Adrienne White would normally be the favorite over Republican Aizaz Shaikh in a constituency that, according to calculations by The Downballot, Kamala Harris carried 56-42 two years ago.

But the special election will take place on the same day that Republicans—and only Republicans—hold closely watched runoffs in their primaries for the U.S. Senate and governor.

Moore told the AJC that disproportionate GOP turnout for those statewide contests could result in a “nightmare scenario” for Democrats further down the ballot. Activist Seth Taylor, likewise, called the GOP’s early voting advantage a “five-alarm fire” that Democrats need to address before it’s too late.

While this seat, which Democrat Nabilah Parkes resigned in March to focus on her campaign for lieutenant governor, will be on the ballot again in November, Democrats worry that Shaikh would strengthen Republicans at the worst time possible.

Last month, GOP Gov. Brian Kemp called a special session to redraw Georgia’s maps for Congress, the state Senate, and the state House—as well as “any other state office elected by district”—in time for the 2028 elections.

Republicans currently hold a 33-21 majority in the 56-member Senate (another Democratic seat is vacant) and a large edge in the House, so they’ll have the numbers to pass their preferred maps no matter how this special election goes—at least on paper.

But recent GOP infighting over new maps has derailed the redistricting process in other states, including Indiana and South Carolina. Democrats, therefore, don’t want to make it any easier for the GOP to ram through new gerrymanders.

A win for Shaikh, an Air Force veteran, would also give his party some rare good news during a tough midterm cycle.

Shaikh would be the first Republican to flip a Democratic-held legislative seat anywhere in the nation since Trump returned to the White House. Democrats, by contrast, have flipped 12 Republican-controlled districts through special elections, plus another 18 seats in New Jersey and Virginia during those states’ regularly scheduled contests last November.

Shaikh also won the Republican nomination for a full two-year term last month without opposition, but White will not be his opponent again this fall. That’s because White, who works in the banking industry, is running only in the special election. On her website, she explained her decision by saying, “Gwinnett deserves a state senator focused on protecting our community, not campaigning for reelection.”

Conversely, the two Democrats competing in Tuesday’s primary runoff for a full term opted not to enter the special election.

State Rep. Ruwa Romman said in March she would have been forced to resign from the lower chamber if she’d run for the rest of Parkes’ term, which would have left her constituents without representation during the remainder of the legislature’s regular session. Attorney Rahul Garabadu, meanwhile, said he wanted to focus entirely on his campaign for a full term.

Parkes, though, will also be on the ballot on Tuesday as she competes against state Sen. Josh McLaurin in the Democratic runoff for lieutenant governor. That contest, however, is far less likely to drive Democrats to the polls compared to the GOP battles in Georgia’s two marquee statewide elections.

“Republicans are voting. Democrats need to vote too,” Taylor wrote in a Facebook post shared by White. “Adrienne White can absolutely win this race, but only if Democratic voters actually show up.”

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Nancy Mace's spectacular crashout

Senate

MI-Sen

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has made his preference for Rep. Haley Stevens explicit by telling Punchbowl News, “I think she has the best chance to win” the general election.

Schumer’s comments came the week after the New York Times reported that he’d asked donors to support her in the August Democratic primary for Michigan’s open Senate seat.

Until now, though, Schumer had remained publicly silent about which candidate he’d like to see take on former Rep. Mike Rogers, who has the Republican side to himself.

Stevens faces former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow in the primary, both of whom were quick to argue that Wolverine State Democrats should reject a candidate backed by Schumer.

House

NY-17

Former National Security Council official Cait Conley is the beneficiary of what Punchbowl News reports is a $500,000 ad buy from the political arm of the centrist New Democrat Coalition ahead of the June 23 Democratic primary.

The spending comes two weeks after VoteVets launched what it said was a $1 million ad buy to help Conley win the nomination to take on Republican Rep. Mike Lawler in New York’s 17th District. So far, it’s disclosed expenditures of more than $800,000.

Third-party groups have not reported spending to aid any of the other four Democrats running to represent this competitive constituency in the Hudson Valley.

Ballot Measures

OH Ballot

Ohio voters will decide this fall whether to enshrine the state’s voter ID requirement in the state constitution.

The GOP-dominated state House voted along party lines to place the proposed amendment on the ballot on Wednesday evening, two days after Donald Trump ordered Republicans to “PASS THIS NOW.” The state Senate, which is also controlled by the GOP, passed the proposal last week.

Some hardliners had criticized the amendment because it does not require that anyone casting a ballot by mail provide a photo ID, raising the possibility that they could derail it. But they were appeased when lawmakers swiftly passed a separate bill that, if signed by Republican Gov. Mike DeWine, would mandate that voters include a copy of their ID when they either request an absentee ballot or mail one in.

Election administrators from both parties, however, are not happy with the new rules for mail voters.

According to the Associated Press, Licking County Elections Director Brian Mead, a Republican representing Ohio’s bipartisan Election Officials Association, called the bill “dire” in testimony before the legislature on Tuesday.

“It was one of those things where we have concerns on both sides,” Mead said.

Poll Pile

• CO-Gov (D): Colorado Community Research:

  • Phil Weiser: 41, Michael Bennet: 34.

• SC-Gov (R): Opinion Diagnostics:

  • Alan Wilson: 48, Pamela Evette: 29.

  • The poll was conducted June 1-2. The first round of the primary took place on June 9, and Wilson and Evette advanced to the runoff.

• NY-13 (D): Data for Progress for the Justice Democrats (pro-Darializa Avila Chevalier):

  • Darializa Avila Chevalier: 39, Adriano Espaillat (inc): 35, two other candidates receive 2% each.

• SC-01 (R): Meeting Street Insights for Winning for Women (pro-Jenny Costa Honeycutt):

  • Jenny Costa Honeycutt: 35, Mark Smith: 28.

  • The poll was conducted June 2-4 shortly before the first round of the primary.