The Democratic base has generally not been big fans of the establishment this year, and Bennet is part of that. Also, Weiser is more progressive on the issues, especially on ones such as redistricting, like anonymouse and Kildere mentioned above.
I'm actually not a big fan of the gerrymandering wars, and don't personally think it is progressive. But some of the base thinks the more harsh Democrats are fighting back in that sense the more progressive they are.
Colorado is also one of the most Dem-trending states in the country, but the state Democratic Party establishment has historically been built on a libertarian-ish strain of center-left politics. As a result, Colorado is uniquely vulnerable to a progressive wave displacing the party's old guard.
In the northeastern states, Democratic machines have long been extremely hostile towards progressive voters, which has driven the progressive surge there in the Trump era (AOC, Pressley, Mamdani, Mejia, Rabb, Summer Lee, etc.).
For what it's worth, there are competitive Democratic statewide runoffs, but for lower level offices like lieutenant governor and insurance commissioner.
Does anyone know how accurate the Data For Progress poll is? I understand its pro Darializa but do they normally show over performances of 5-10% from actual results or is it more representative than that.
Ohio Rs stand to lose in the long term by getting this enshrined into the state constitution. Purposely leave out tribal IDs, college student IDs, concealed carry IDs... getting a passport and/or passport card ain't cheap.
It’s downright surreal jumping between here and left Bluesky regarding NY-13. Over here, everyone is praying for Espaillat, while on left Bluesky it’s Darializa they want.
I’ve decided, due to Darializa’s controversies (which I’m sure we all know about) and Espaillat’s hostility with the left (including backing a primary challenge to a prominent progressive State Senator in NY and supporting Julie Menin for City Council Speaker), I am not backing anyone in the primary. I do not like either candidate and, since I don’t live in the very blue NY-13, I’m not actually going to say I support anyone.
Given how good f a campaigner Espaillat has been in the past, I'm shocked this is even a race. That said, I think there's been some strategic missteps on his part that have led here. I also find the gentrifier vs "real NYer" debate to be really tiresome. If I'm Darializa, I'm arguing to the "real NYers" that Espaillat has been in office since the early 2000s and hasn't made it any easier to stay in NYC.
Dave Weigel had a good conversation with Sam Seder about this last month ago. Basically Dems in Georgia need to build up the same infrastructure that allowed them to flip the Supreme Courts in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. They are starting from zero especially since Stacey Abrams isn't doing party building stuff anymore.
Hopefully Georgia Dems can get the financial firepower sooner rather than later to make stuff like this a reality. Don't expect the DNC to help out anytime soon since they're broke, among other issues under Ken Martin's leadership.
This really doesn't speak well of Stacey Abrams. She was earlier credited (maybe overcredited?) with making Georgia more competitive with her party building work, but it really shouldn't stop just because she isn't running herself.
NC, OH, + AK would make 50-50. And I am assuming holds in GA, NH, and MI.
I know there is concern about Platner in ME, but I don't think anything that has come out so far is gonna cost him the win. Though it could easily get worse.
Still, I think ME, TX, and IA are all also extremely winnable.
As far as polling goes, we are ahead in NC, ME, OH, AK, TX, GA, NH, and MI (Stevens with ES -0.3%).
Via Race to the WH, polling averages: Cooper +9.3%, Ossoff +5.9% (v Collins), Pappas +5.3%, Platner +3.8%, Peltola +3.6%, Stevens +3.1%, Brown +2.5%, Talarico +1.1%, El-Sayed -0.3%, Turek -1.6%
Projected chances to win: Ossof 94.3%, Cooper 90.3%, Pappas 82.8%, Brown 74.3%, El-Sayed 71.4%, Platner 63.6%, Talarico 59.4%, Peltola 52.7%, Turek 36.5%.
If things get worse between now & November, I think the chances of the Ds running the table with 3 holds (GA, NH, MI) and six flips (NC, ME, OH, AK, TX, IA) go up. That would be 53.
IF things worsen, I could see NE and FL in play. 55.
2028? WI & NC are the top targets. PA, GA & NH need to be defended. Fetterman out could feel like a win. AK & IA are up again. That is 4 that are not crazy longshots. If Beshar ran in KY, maybe 5.
This feels a tad too optimistic to me, particularly with the potential for an AES candidacy in MI. I'd rank them more like this (I'd consider MN to be Safe D barring some major change):
I've been very reluctant to hop on the train to Brown Town, but I'm starting to believe. Husted seems to be determined to do everything he can to lose the seat.
Jim Tressel probably would have been a better appointee—and I say that as someone who's no fan of Tressel.
I think it’s because Brown is really coalescing support from the union vote. He’s got a long history of being pro-union and a vocal fair trade advocate.
Wow, Weiser ahead in a CO-Gov poll. It's from the same group that had Hickenlooper doing worse in his primary than expected, so maybe they have too many progressive voters in their polls. But still, this is the first time I've seen Weiser ahead.
I apologize in advance for how long this post ended up being. There's a lot to cover here; Florida is a big state.
Florida filing deadline:
FL-Sen: Republican Sen. Ashley Moody's main Democratic opponents remain Army veteran Alex Vindman and state Rep. Angie Nixon.
FL-2: Florida Republican Party chair Evan Power, businessman Keith Gross, Army veteran Luke Murphy, former congressional staffer Austin Rogers, Gulf County superintendent Jim Norton and former Walton County sheriff's deputy Audie Rowell are the major Republicans running to succeed Rep. Neal Dunn, who was supposed to be dead by now according to Trump.
FL-4: Republican Rep. Aaron Bean will likely face Democratic attorney Michael Kirwan, though this seat was gerrymandered in 2022 to be very Republican after being strongly Democratic for decades.
FL-6: Republican Rep. Randy Fine will face Palm Coast councilman Charles Gambaro and far-right influencer Dan Bilizerian in the primary.
FL-7: Republican Rep. Cory Mills faces former news anchor Ryan Elijah and businesswoman Sarah Ulrich in the primary, but Navy veterans Bale Dalton and Marialana Kinter as well as former Rep. Alan Grayson will run on the Democratic side.
FL-8: Republican Rep. Mike Haridopolos will likely face former Brevard County school board member Jennifer Jenkins. This seat was drawn to be slightly bluer.
FL-9: Democratic Rep. Darren Soto faces a rough path to re-election, and farmer Ben Butler, Navy veteran Dan Green and businessmen Tom Chalifoux and Jorge Martinez are Republicans running to beat him. Osceola County commissioner Ricky Booth and former state Reps. Jason Fischer and Mike La Rosa declined to run.
FL-10: There's still time for someone else to qualify, but Democratic Rep. Maxwell Frost may be uncontested this year.
FL-11: Former Lake County appraiser and state Sen. Carey Baker, Lake County commissioner Anthony Sabatini, businessmen Joe Strada and Mike Wilnau, and comedian Tim Wilkins are the major Republicans running to succeed Rep. Dan Webster. Lake County sheriff Peyton Grinnell and state Sen. Keith Truenow declined to run.
FL-12: He's not on the list yet, but Air National Guard veteran Darren McAuley still seems to be challenging Republican Rep. Gus Bilirakis, in a seat that got bluer after redistricting.
FL-13: Army veteran Leela Gray is the main Democrat taking on Republican Rep. Anna Paulina Luna.
FL-14: Democratic Rep. Kathy Castor can still win, but she faces stiff Republican opposition in state Rep. Kevin Steele, former state Rep. Mike Beltran, and congressional staffer Bea Valenti. Lt. Gov. Jay Collins declined to jump into this race from the governor's race, which we'll get to later.
FL-15: He's also not on the list yet, but Hernando County commissioner Steve Champion appears to still be mounting a challenge to Rep. Laurel Lee in the Republican primary.
FL-16: Former New College of Florida officials Sydney Gruters and Eddie Speir, businessman Ed Pope and former Manatee County commissioner James Satcher are the major Republicans running to succeed Rep. Vern Buchanan, while former Sarasota mayor Kelly Kirschner is the only major Democrat that filed, as well as several perennial candidates including Jan Schneider, a former nominee for the seat. Former state Rep. Adam Hattersley and Tejano singer Joe Zuniga declined to run.
FL-19: Former Reps. Madison Cawthorn and Chris Collins and congressional candidates Catalina Lauf and Ola Hawatmeh, from other states; businessman Jim Schwartzel and Marine Corps veteran Mike Pedersen will run to succeed Republican Rep. Byron Donalds. Collins considered a switch to the new 22nd, where he lives, but ultimately decided to stay in this race.
FL-20: Democratic activist Elijah Manley's plan to get other Democrats out of the race so he could take on Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz in the primary did not work. Former Broward County mayor Dale Holness and rapper Luther "Uncle Luke" Campbell will continue their runs. The forbidden issue has already become a topic of discussion here, as Manley and Wasserman Schultz are Jewish.
FL-22: Democratic businesswoman Pia Dandiya, who previously had a well-funded run in the 21st, will instead run here, which was the seat Wasserman Schultz was originally considering. Major Republicans include businessmen Michael Carbonara and Casey Askar, academic administrator Belinda Keiser, Palm Beach County mayor Sarah Baxter (who Trump wanted to leave the race), former Alabama congressional candidate Terri Hasdorff and former NSC official Mike Thompson. I don't see an independent bid from businessman and pariah Lev Parnas on the list, thankfully.
FL-24: State Sen. Shev Jones, Miami-Dade County commissioner Oliver Gilbert and attorney Kendrick Meek Jr. are the major Democrats running to succeed Rep. Frederica Wilson.
FL-25: Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz faces a spirited primary challenge from campaign strategist Oliver Larkin, and then spirited Republican challenges from former state Rep. George Moraitis, former Boca Raton mayor Scott Singer, businesswoman Raven Harrison and businessmen Joe Kaufman and Dan Franzese.
FL-27: Republican Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar faces two prominent Democratic opponents: retired news anchor Eliott Rodriguez and attorney Robin Peguero, who was said to switch to the 28th but ultimately did not.
FL-28: The best Democrats could come up with to take on Rep. Carlos Gimenez was Navy veteran and perennial candidate Phil Ehr, who lost badly here 2 years ago and several years before that in the 1st.
FL-Gov: Rep. Byron Donalds, businessman James Fishback, Lt. Gov. Jay Collins and former state Rep. Paul Renner are the major Republicans running to succeed the iconoclastic Gov. Ron DeSantis, while former Reps. David Jolly and Gwen Graham will likely be the Democratic ticket.
FL-AG: Republican incumbent James Uthmeier and former Democratic state Sen. Jose Javier Rodriguez face minor primary opponents. This will be a race to watch.
FL-CFO: Acting in a position similar to state treasurer, incumbent Blaise Ingoglia faces two prominent Democrats: former state Sen. Annette Taddeo and Army veteran Earle Ford.
FL-Agriculture Commissioner: Incumbent Republican Wilton Simpson faces only minor intraparty and Democratic opposition.
They might be able to lose just 1 seat on a really good night. If Castor and Moskowitz win, which would be helped by their incumbency advantage and crossover appeal, then Dandiya wins the open 22nd (which would be quite the hail Mary, it's a conservative seat), the only Republican gain would be whoever beats Soto.
The last three polls of the Florida AG race have had Rodriguez narrowly leading against Uthmeier, while Moody and Donalds are either narrowly leading or tied.
I am worried that Fishback will upset Donalds, but I also think that if that happens Jolly has a much better shot because Fishback is so noxious. Curious to see the Ingoglia-Taddeo matchup.
The Wisconsin Supreme Court agreed Thursday to hear an appeal seeking to strike down the state’s Republican gerrymandered congressional map, reviving a major fight for fairer maps that could reshape Wisconsin’s U.S. House delegation for 2028.
SC, MS, LA (to get rid of the last VRA seat). That's pretty much their only options without creating dummymanders in several states. Maybe Ohio to get rid of Landsman and Sykes more easily.
It's pretty tenuous and bacon-filled, but this is a 7-2 I drew in a matter of minutes under Trump 2024 margins, which Democrats will probably outperform in 2028.
Drew this awhile ago, with an eye towards a 10-district AZ map following 2030, presuming Republicans don't stack the commission again. 6-3-1, restores the old swingy AZ-01 but we'd probably win it. Hispanic voters would easily determine the Dem primary winners in 3 seats:
Fair point, in that case it would come down to what Ohio Republicans think they can get away with with the Supreme Court, but the amendment is pretty ironclad that it requires Democratic buy-in.
They can’t redistrict in Ohio again until 2031 due to the redistricting commission. The only way they could reopen redistricting before then is through a statewide referendum.
From the article: The mix of headwinds facing George created the opening for Randall and her running mate, David Covey, a hard-right activist who previously served on the state party’s governing board and unsuccessfully ran against former House Speaker Dade Phelan of Beaumont in 2024.
Some of Randall’s supporters also charged that the incumbent chair has been too welcoming to establishment Republicans, after he warmed up to Phelan’s successor, House Speaker Dustin Burrows, following initial reservations over his election aided by Democrats. Burrows was set to address the convention — the first sitting speaker ever to do so — Friday afternoon.
Speaking of #NY17, Republicans have once again started a progressive-sounding PAC in order to interfere in the Democratic primary in hopes of defeating the strongest Democratic candidate. The 'Progressive Champions PAC' is actually funded by the GOP and is spending $1M to keep Cait Conley from winning the primary because they know she can defeat Mike Lawler. It's the same tactic they used against Rebecca Bennett in #NJ07 and elsewhere.
They've mostly failed in their efforts, like in #NJ07 and #TX35. But still something for NY17 Dems to be cognizant of, as the intent here is to manipulate.
I’m not fond of her. I’m voting for Effie (I don’t think Lawler will win even with Effie) but I think Beth Davidson has the best shot of them all — and based on the primary debate I went to, would also be a more reliable vote than Cait.
I think Cait has performed quite well in this primary. She easily leads her rivals in fundraising and cash-on-hand, she has great energy, a good bio for this toss-up district, and based on all of the evidence we've seen from Lawler and the Republicans, they fear her the most.
A friend of mine--who is also one of my state delegates--posted on social media that he is, as "founder of the Society to Halt Iconography of Trump and Halt Edifices in Adulation of Donald (S.H.I.T. H.E.A.D.)".
I have the World Cup on TV and MSNOW's video of the Kennedy Center on my computer, but will have to leave the house (actually apartment) soon.
ME-HD-29: Republican Nancy Theriault achieved a very small overperformance here, beating Democrat Nancy McDowell 61.3-39.7. Former state Rep. Kathy Javner, who died in January, won her last election 60.8-40.2.
The Democratic base has generally not been big fans of the establishment this year, and Bennet is part of that. Also, Weiser is more progressive on the issues, especially on ones such as redistricting, like anonymouse and Kildere mentioned above.
I'm actually not a big fan of the gerrymandering wars, and don't personally think it is progressive. But some of the base thinks the more harsh Democrats are fighting back in that sense the more progressive they are.
That's my position too
I'll also say Bennet voting for several Trump nominees and unpopular bills also brings him some negativity from the left wing of the party.
Colorado is also one of the most Dem-trending states in the country, but the state Democratic Party establishment has historically been built on a libertarian-ish strain of center-left politics. As a result, Colorado is uniquely vulnerable to a progressive wave displacing the party's old guard.
In the northeastern states, Democratic machines have long been extremely hostile towards progressive voters, which has driven the progressive surge there in the Trump era (AOC, Pressley, Mamdani, Mejia, Rabb, Summer Lee, etc.).
No this has everything to do with the GOP having competitive statewide runoffs that week and the Dems not.
What was the comment?
Something like "maybe Democrats are losing ground and not gaining popularity"
After all the elections Democrats have overwhelmingly been winning since last year?
For what it's worth, there are competitive Democratic statewide runoffs, but for lower level offices like lieutenant governor and insurance commissioner.
Does anyone know how accurate the Data For Progress poll is? I understand its pro Darializa but do they normally show over performances of 5-10% from actual results or is it more representative than that.
I’m glad Chevalier is only up 4 in her own internal, maybe Espalliat still has a shot
OH Democrats need to paint this photo ID amendment as the "Don't vote for Trump and Ohio Republicans' SAVE Act" which it clearly is.
If they have a solid GOTV campaign, they can defeat it.
Ohio Rs stand to lose in the long term by getting this enshrined into the state constitution. Purposely leave out tribal IDs, college student IDs, concealed carry IDs... getting a passport and/or passport card ain't cheap.
It’s downright surreal jumping between here and left Bluesky regarding NY-13. Over here, everyone is praying for Espaillat, while on left Bluesky it’s Darializa they want.
I’ve decided, due to Darializa’s controversies (which I’m sure we all know about) and Espaillat’s hostility with the left (including backing a primary challenge to a prominent progressive State Senator in NY and supporting Julie Menin for City Council Speaker), I am not backing anyone in the primary. I do not like either candidate and, since I don’t live in the very blue NY-13, I’m not actually going to say I support anyone.
Good idea. I also think she is by far the least likely to win out of Mamdani's endorsed candidates.
Who are his endorsed candidates again?
Her, Claire Valdez and Brad Lander
Given how good f a campaigner Espaillat has been in the past, I'm shocked this is even a race. That said, I think there's been some strategic missteps on his part that have led here. I also find the gentrifier vs "real NYer" debate to be really tiresome. If I'm Darializa, I'm arguing to the "real NYers" that Espaillat has been in office since the early 2000s and hasn't made it any easier to stay in NYC.
Not everyone
Given his support for a Cuomo mayoral win I'd be happy to see him knocked off, we can get rid of a non-power broker much more easily.
I find Darializa's statements to be mind-numbingly stupid, so I hope she goes down, even if Espaillat is rather boring.
It's also a reminder that Georgia isn't exactly fleshed out (in terms of party building and downballot candidate depth). Still much work to be done.
Especially the nonpartisan state Supreme Court races. They NEED to flip 2-3 by 2028 to make a dent in that GOP-appointed majority.
Dave Weigel had a good conversation with Sam Seder about this last month ago. Basically Dems in Georgia need to build up the same infrastructure that allowed them to flip the Supreme Courts in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. They are starting from zero especially since Stacey Abrams isn't doing party building stuff anymore.
Hopefully Georgia Dems can get the financial firepower sooner rather than later to make stuff like this a reality. Don't expect the DNC to help out anytime soon since they're broke, among other issues under Ken Martin's leadership.
This really doesn't speak well of Stacey Abrams. She was earlier credited (maybe overcredited?) with making Georgia more competitive with her party building work, but it really shouldn't stop just because she isn't running herself.
Stacey Abrams more and more seems she was in it for Stacey Abrams. Not exactly a rarity in the political world, but still disappointing.
I kept telling people Abrams wasn't doing much at all and taking credit for things she had little to do with.
Nice to get confirmation from Cook. Brown really is up in OH https://x.com/Taniel/status/2065424428436000792?s=20
It's unreal seeing this 53-45 poll from a Fox pollster.
Fox's pollster is very reputable and very good.
Which is why Trump despises Fox polls.
That is really good news.
NC, OH, + AK would make 50-50. And I am assuming holds in GA, NH, and MI.
I know there is concern about Platner in ME, but I don't think anything that has come out so far is gonna cost him the win. Though it could easily get worse.
Still, I think ME, TX, and IA are all also extremely winnable.
As far as polling goes, we are ahead in NC, ME, OH, AK, TX, GA, NH, and MI (Stevens with ES -0.3%).
Via Race to the WH, polling averages: Cooper +9.3%, Ossoff +5.9% (v Collins), Pappas +5.3%, Platner +3.8%, Peltola +3.6%, Stevens +3.1%, Brown +2.5%, Talarico +1.1%, El-Sayed -0.3%, Turek -1.6%
Projected chances to win: Ossof 94.3%, Cooper 90.3%, Pappas 82.8%, Brown 74.3%, El-Sayed 71.4%, Platner 63.6%, Talarico 59.4%, Peltola 52.7%, Turek 36.5%.
https://www.racetothewh.com/senate/26
There is a lot of special sauce in their modeling, and it does fluctuate significantly. We may be at a high ebb, but they have:
Toss Up: ME, AK, TX, IA
Tilt D: MI, OH
Lean D: NH
Likely D: MN, NC, GA
Tilt R: nothing
Lean R: NE, FL
Dems at 51.9% to win a MAJ and 50.7 seats their model.
If things get worse between now & November, I think the chances of the Ds running the table with 3 holds (GA, NH, MI) and six flips (NC, ME, OH, AK, TX, IA) go up. That would be 53.
IF things worsen, I could see NE and FL in play. 55.
2028? WI & NC are the top targets. PA, GA & NH need to be defended. Fetterman out could feel like a win. AK & IA are up again. That is 4 that are not crazy longshots. If Beshar ran in KY, maybe 5.
I wouldn't put Kansas totally off the table until after the primary
This feels a tad too optimistic to me, particularly with the potential for an AES candidacy in MI. I'd rank them more like this (I'd consider MN to be Safe D barring some major change):
Toss Up: ME, AK
Tilt D: MI
Lean D: NC, GA
Likely D: NH
Tilt R: TX, IA, OH
Lean R: FL
Likely R: NE, MT
I've been very reluctant to hop on the train to Brown Town, but I'm starting to believe. Husted seems to be determined to do everything he can to lose the seat.
Jim Tressel probably would have been a better appointee—and I say that as someone who's no fan of Tressel.
I think it’s because Brown is really coalescing support from the union vote. He’s got a long history of being pro-union and a vocal fair trade advocate.
Wow, Weiser ahead in a CO-Gov poll. It's from the same group that had Hickenlooper doing worse in his primary than expected, so maybe they have too many progressive voters in their polls. But still, this is the first time I've seen Weiser ahead.
I support Weiser just because he’s been a lot more aggressive in supporting a D gerrymander.
I don't think I've seen Bennet ever get aggressive about much of anything.
I like the guy, but he's Ambien in human form. That said, he's still better than Jared "Fetterman before Fetterman" Polis.
He got kind of fired up at the Dem debate I attended but both seemed to be desperate to find something to hit the other on.
What’s the tea leaves ultimately on the Georgia special election???
https://dos.elections.myflorida.com/candidates/CanList.asp
I apologize in advance for how long this post ended up being. There's a lot to cover here; Florida is a big state.
Florida filing deadline:
FL-Sen: Republican Sen. Ashley Moody's main Democratic opponents remain Army veteran Alex Vindman and state Rep. Angie Nixon.
FL-2: Florida Republican Party chair Evan Power, businessman Keith Gross, Army veteran Luke Murphy, former congressional staffer Austin Rogers, Gulf County superintendent Jim Norton and former Walton County sheriff's deputy Audie Rowell are the major Republicans running to succeed Rep. Neal Dunn, who was supposed to be dead by now according to Trump.
FL-4: Republican Rep. Aaron Bean will likely face Democratic attorney Michael Kirwan, though this seat was gerrymandered in 2022 to be very Republican after being strongly Democratic for decades.
FL-6: Republican Rep. Randy Fine will face Palm Coast councilman Charles Gambaro and far-right influencer Dan Bilizerian in the primary.
FL-7: Republican Rep. Cory Mills faces former news anchor Ryan Elijah and businesswoman Sarah Ulrich in the primary, but Navy veterans Bale Dalton and Marialana Kinter as well as former Rep. Alan Grayson will run on the Democratic side.
FL-8: Republican Rep. Mike Haridopolos will likely face former Brevard County school board member Jennifer Jenkins. This seat was drawn to be slightly bluer.
FL-9: Democratic Rep. Darren Soto faces a rough path to re-election, and farmer Ben Butler, Navy veteran Dan Green and businessmen Tom Chalifoux and Jorge Martinez are Republicans running to beat him. Osceola County commissioner Ricky Booth and former state Reps. Jason Fischer and Mike La Rosa declined to run.
FL-10: There's still time for someone else to qualify, but Democratic Rep. Maxwell Frost may be uncontested this year.
FL-11: Former Lake County appraiser and state Sen. Carey Baker, Lake County commissioner Anthony Sabatini, businessmen Joe Strada and Mike Wilnau, and comedian Tim Wilkins are the major Republicans running to succeed Rep. Dan Webster. Lake County sheriff Peyton Grinnell and state Sen. Keith Truenow declined to run.
FL-12: He's not on the list yet, but Air National Guard veteran Darren McAuley still seems to be challenging Republican Rep. Gus Bilirakis, in a seat that got bluer after redistricting.
FL-13: Army veteran Leela Gray is the main Democrat taking on Republican Rep. Anna Paulina Luna.
FL-14: Democratic Rep. Kathy Castor can still win, but she faces stiff Republican opposition in state Rep. Kevin Steele, former state Rep. Mike Beltran, and congressional staffer Bea Valenti. Lt. Gov. Jay Collins declined to jump into this race from the governor's race, which we'll get to later.
FL-15: He's also not on the list yet, but Hernando County commissioner Steve Champion appears to still be mounting a challenge to Rep. Laurel Lee in the Republican primary.
FL-16: Former New College of Florida officials Sydney Gruters and Eddie Speir, businessman Ed Pope and former Manatee County commissioner James Satcher are the major Republicans running to succeed Rep. Vern Buchanan, while former Sarasota mayor Kelly Kirschner is the only major Democrat that filed, as well as several perennial candidates including Jan Schneider, a former nominee for the seat. Former state Rep. Adam Hattersley and Tejano singer Joe Zuniga declined to run.
FL-19: Former Reps. Madison Cawthorn and Chris Collins and congressional candidates Catalina Lauf and Ola Hawatmeh, from other states; businessman Jim Schwartzel and Marine Corps veteran Mike Pedersen will run to succeed Republican Rep. Byron Donalds. Collins considered a switch to the new 22nd, where he lives, but ultimately decided to stay in this race.
FL-20: Democratic activist Elijah Manley's plan to get other Democrats out of the race so he could take on Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz in the primary did not work. Former Broward County mayor Dale Holness and rapper Luther "Uncle Luke" Campbell will continue their runs. The forbidden issue has already become a topic of discussion here, as Manley and Wasserman Schultz are Jewish.
FL-22: Democratic businesswoman Pia Dandiya, who previously had a well-funded run in the 21st, will instead run here, which was the seat Wasserman Schultz was originally considering. Major Republicans include businessmen Michael Carbonara and Casey Askar, academic administrator Belinda Keiser, Palm Beach County mayor Sarah Baxter (who Trump wanted to leave the race), former Alabama congressional candidate Terri Hasdorff and former NSC official Mike Thompson. I don't see an independent bid from businessman and pariah Lev Parnas on the list, thankfully.
FL-24: State Sen. Shev Jones, Miami-Dade County commissioner Oliver Gilbert and attorney Kendrick Meek Jr. are the major Democrats running to succeed Rep. Frederica Wilson.
FL-25: Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz faces a spirited primary challenge from campaign strategist Oliver Larkin, and then spirited Republican challenges from former state Rep. George Moraitis, former Boca Raton mayor Scott Singer, businesswoman Raven Harrison and businessmen Joe Kaufman and Dan Franzese.
FL-27: Republican Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar faces two prominent Democratic opponents: retired news anchor Eliott Rodriguez and attorney Robin Peguero, who was said to switch to the 28th but ultimately did not.
FL-28: The best Democrats could come up with to take on Rep. Carlos Gimenez was Navy veteran and perennial candidate Phil Ehr, who lost badly here 2 years ago and several years before that in the 1st.
FL-Gov: Rep. Byron Donalds, businessman James Fishback, Lt. Gov. Jay Collins and former state Rep. Paul Renner are the major Republicans running to succeed the iconoclastic Gov. Ron DeSantis, while former Reps. David Jolly and Gwen Graham will likely be the Democratic ticket.
FL-AG: Republican incumbent James Uthmeier and former Democratic state Sen. Jose Javier Rodriguez face minor primary opponents. This will be a race to watch.
FL-CFO: Acting in a position similar to state treasurer, incumbent Blaise Ingoglia faces two prominent Democrats: former state Sen. Annette Taddeo and Army veteran Earle Ford.
FL-Agriculture Commissioner: Incumbent Republican Wilton Simpson faces only minor intraparty and Democratic opposition.
So it’s conceivable that Democrats could only lose 1 or 2 seats rather than 4?
They might be able to lose just 1 seat on a really good night. If Castor and Moskowitz win, which would be helped by their incumbency advantage and crossover appeal, then Dandiya wins the open 22nd (which would be quite the hail Mary, it's a conservative seat), the only Republican gain would be whoever beats Soto.
There are folks who think the peanut butter is spread so thin that even seats like *Salazar's* are at potential risk.
I'mj not sure I'd go that far, but I sure want to believe.
I'd say Cory Mills loses before Salazar, but you never know.
The last three polls of the Florida AG race have had Rodriguez narrowly leading against Uthmeier, while Moody and Donalds are either narrowly leading or tied.
I am worried that Fishback will upset Donalds, but I also think that if that happens Jolly has a much better shot because Fishback is so noxious. Curious to see the Ingoglia-Taddeo matchup.
The Wisconsin Supreme Court agreed Thursday to hear an appeal seeking to strike down the state’s Republican gerrymandered congressional map, reviving a major fight for fairer maps that could reshape Wisconsin’s U.S. House delegation for 2028.
https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/wisconsin-supreme-court-agrees-to-hear-appeal-challenging-gop-congressional-gerrymander/
Fantastic news. Along with the indefatigable Sherrod Brown, this carries my spirits through the week!
With the VA SCT and Callais decisions, the GOP will easily win the gerrymander wars in 2026.
But I still don'tvthink it will be enough to save them.
But 2028 is gonna be a different kettle of fish. VA, NY, NJ, CO, MD, WI, WA, and maybe some others (MI, PA, OR, AZ) could really pile it on.
Just to contrast, which GOP-run states might also redistrict post-Callais? Contrasted with us?
(Depending on how GA goes, we might at least be able to kill that GOP gerrrymander if we win the Governors race and/or at least one chamber.)
SC, MS, LA (to get rid of the last VRA seat). That's pretty much their only options without creating dummymanders in several states. Maybe Ohio to get rid of Landsman and Sykes more easily.
Interesting. Seems we could ultimately win the gerrymandering war, elections and leaders permitting.
Re: AZ: that could be interesting if we somehow win there. I wonder if someone could draw up a hypothetical map in DRA to see what’s possible.
It's pretty tenuous and bacon-filled, but this is a 7-2 I drew in a matter of minutes under Trump 2024 margins, which Democrats will probably outperform in 2028.
https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::1d62e544-f5e7-4ebb-9ae7-d1cfd8b5c9fd
That looks like a 2-2-5 map, bad for 2030.
Drew this awhile ago, with an eye towards a 10-district AZ map following 2030, presuming Republicans don't stack the commission again. 6-3-1, restores the old swingy AZ-01 but we'd probably win it. Hispanic voters would easily determine the Dem primary winners in 3 seats:
https://davesredistricting.org/join/855acad6-bec6-4715-a9db-b8c92690f0e6
Ohio's not changing again, it's not based on the VRA, they have a state constitutional amendment
Why would Ohio Republicans care about that? Florida had a constitutional amendment and its Supreme Court still greenlit this redraw.
Fair point, in that case it would come down to what Ohio Republicans think they can get away with with the Supreme Court, but the amendment is pretty ironclad that it requires Democratic buy-in.
They can’t redistrict in Ohio again until 2031 due to the redistricting commission. The only way they could reopen redistricting before then is through a statewide referendum.
That's why GA Rs are calling a special session to rig the state legislature maps later this month for 2028.
TX: The state GOP convention is this week. A few hours ago they ousted the incumbent party chair for a new one. https://www.texastribune.org/2026/06/12/texas-gop-chair-election-abraham-george-defeated-drinda-randall/
From the article: The mix of headwinds facing George created the opening for Randall and her running mate, David Covey, a hard-right activist who previously served on the state party’s governing board and unsuccessfully ran against former House Speaker Dade Phelan of Beaumont in 2024.
Some of Randall’s supporters also charged that the incumbent chair has been too welcoming to establishment Republicans, after he warmed up to Phelan’s successor, House Speaker Dustin Burrows, following initial reservations over his election aided by Democrats. Burrows was set to address the convention — the first sitting speaker ever to do so — Friday afternoon.
Abraham George seems by all accounts a successful GOP State Party Chair but let’s be honest, the white supremacists will never be happy with a leader of color, no matter how MAGA they are. https://www.texastribune.org/2026/05/12/texas-republicans-indian-americans-frisco-h1b-visas-immigration/
Greg Abbott also said he supported closing primaries, which he could probably get done in a 3rd term.
Speaking of #NY17, Republicans have once again started a progressive-sounding PAC in order to interfere in the Democratic primary in hopes of defeating the strongest Democratic candidate. The 'Progressive Champions PAC' is actually funded by the GOP and is spending $1M to keep Cait Conley from winning the primary because they know she can defeat Mike Lawler. It's the same tactic they used against Rebecca Bennett in #NJ07 and elsewhere.
https://x.com/allymutnick/status/2065440429198172315?s=20
Oh for Christs sake. Luckily Dem primary voters tend to be smarter than those of the GOP so I don’t think it will be as effective.
They've mostly failed in their efforts, like in #NJ07 and #TX35. But still something for NY17 Dems to be cognizant of, as the intent here is to manipulate.
Oh I know. I’m a NY-17 resident myself, I’ll be on the lookout.
I’m not fond of her. I’m voting for Effie (I don’t think Lawler will win even with Effie) but I think Beth Davidson has the best shot of them all — and based on the primary debate I went to, would also be a more reliable vote than Cait.
I think Cait has performed quite well in this primary. She easily leads her rivals in fundraising and cash-on-hand, she has great energy, a good bio for this toss-up district, and based on all of the evidence we've seen from Lawler and the Republicans, they fear her the most.
I hope I'm not the only one watching the live feed of the scaffolding at the Kennedy Center after the judge denied TACO's suit to stop his name on it.
Workers are climbing the scaffolding now.
There's like three different live streams of it, lol.
A friend of mine--who is also one of my state delegates--posted on social media that he is, as "founder of the Society to Halt Iconography of Trump and Halt Edifices in Adulation of Donald (S.H.I.T. H.E.A.D.)".
I have the World Cup on TV and MSNOW's video of the Kennedy Center on my computer, but will have to leave the house (actually apartment) soon.
The Guardian has a fantastic close-up live stream of the workers.
I'm a junkie, but watching the name change on government buildings.... too much for me lol
https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-06-09/maine-state-house-29-special-election-general
ME-HD-29: Republican Nancy Theriault achieved a very small overperformance here, beating Democrat Nancy McDowell 61.3-39.7. Former state Rep. Kathy Javner, who died in January, won her last election 60.8-40.2.