Morning Digest: Trump-backed pastor bails on race after sexting scandal

Trump initially doubled down on Jackson Lahmeyer but strangled his campaign after a disappointing primary result

Screenshot of an ad from Oklahoma Republican Jackson Lahmeyer juxtaposing him with Donald Trump and touting Trump’s endorsement (credit: Jackson Lahmeyer campaign)

Leading Off

OK-01

Evangelical pastor Jackson Lahmeyer dropped out of the Republican primary runoff for Oklahoma’s open 1st District on Wednesday, just one day after the scandal-ridden candidate took a disappointing second place against state Rep. Mark Tedford.

Lahmeyer’s departure ends a chaotic few days for the one-time frontrunner, who had Donald Trump’s support heading into the first round of voting. But Trump, who backed losing candidates for governor in Iowa and then Georgia earlier this month, ditched Lahmeyer mere minutes before he dropped out and endorsed Tedford in his place.

Tedford is now all but guaranteed to claim this dark-red constituency in the Tulsa area. State law gives Lahmeyer until Friday to withdraw his name from the ballot. If he withdraws, that would automatically make Tedford the GOP nominee rather than elevate the third-place candidate, businessman Nathan Butterfield, according to KOCO.

Lahmeyer, who became a prominent far-right figure in Oklahoma in the four years since he unsuccessfully challenged Sen. James Lankford for renomination, just a week ago was the favorite to replace Rep. Kevin Hern, who is on a glide path to secure the state’s other Senate seat.

But things began going wrong for Lahmeyer the weekend before the primary when the Daily Mail, a British tabloid, reported that he’d sent sexual messages to a former Miss Oklahoma. The paper also said that the candidate’s wife learned about the relationship last month and texted the woman, “You are a home wrecking whore. Did you enjoy ruining our family?”

Lahmeyer responded on Sunday by acknowledging he’d “cross[ed] a boundary line through text messaging.” He nevertheless denounced what he called a “distorted story” and insisted the “matter was already dealt with privately between me and my wife.”

Trump initially didn’t seem to care much about any of this. MAGA’s master took to Truth Social on Monday to once again implore Republicans to nominate someone who had “been with me from the very beginning of our Movement to, MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!”

Lahmeyer was happy to have that support.

“Last-second smears designed to deceive Oklahoma conservatives because they know I will always stand with President Trump and the people of OK-1,” he tweeted. “I’m Jackson Lahmeyer, the only Trump-endorsed conservative in this race, and I will never back down.”

But Lahmeyer would back down just two days later.

Tedford, who self-funded more than $1 million, secured first place in Tuesday’s primary with 32%, while Lahmeyer was several points behind with 26%. That set the pair up for a runoff on Aug. 25 that would test whether Trump’s endorsement would be enough to put his pick over the top.

NOTUS’s Reese Gorman, however, reported Wednesday afternoon that Lahmeyer had begun telling supporters he intended to drop out. While Gorman’s sources said Lahmeyer might still reverse course and remain in the race, Trump strangled his campaign less than an hour later when he announced Tedford was now the sole recipient of his “Complete and Total Endorsement.”

“I greatly appreciate Jackson Lahmeyer’s hard work under difficult circumstances — He has always been with me, and I will always be with him,” Trump wrote, even as he was kicking the candidate to the curb.

Minutes later, Lahmeyer announced that he was dropping out.

“I do not want to be a distraction to my family, my church, and the great people of Oklahoma’s 1st Congressional District, who deserve a strong conservative voice representing them in Washington,” he wrote.

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The Downballot Podcast

Georgia gives Trump a black eye

Tuesday’s primary runoffs in Georgia were not good news for Donald Trump—or termed-out Gov. Brian Kemp. On this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard explain how the campaign of Trump’s pick to lead the Peach State campaign imploded so badly, and why that in turn helped kill a push by Kemp to further gerrymander the state’s electoral maps.

The Davids also recap this week’s other races in Oklahoma, D.C., and Alabama before diving into a preview of all the major contests coming up in the second half of the month. In South Carolina, Trump could get another black eye as his choice for governor stumbles toward her runoff, while in New York, Democrats are hosting a variety of House primaries that have exposed notable divides—both ideological and geographic. And we’ve got Utah, Maryland, Louisiana, and Colorado all on tap as well!

Redistricting Roundup

GA Redistricting

A special session of the legislature to address redistricting collapsed before it could even begin on Wednesday after Republican leaders in both chambers told Gov. Brian Kemp they opposed the idea of redrawing the state’s maps.

“Changes to Georgia’s maps should take place only when members of the General Assembly and citizens have been given ample opportunity to gather the facts, provide input, and engage in meaningful discussion,” House leaders wrote in a letter to the governor. “For this reason, we will not be taking up congressional or legislative redistricting for the 2028 election cycle during this special session.”

At a press conference on Wednesday with House Speaker Jon Burns, Senate President Pro Tem Larry Walker added that Republicans in the upper chamber “stand united with you and your caucus in this decision today.”

But despite the high-minded civic rhetoric, political self-interest may have been the chief motivating factor behind nixing Kemp’s proposal.

According to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, some Republicans were worried that a redistricting push—which would inevitably see them dismantle Black districts—could “energize Democrats” and cause “political headaches” for candidates in competitive races.

While Wednesday’s developments represented a major defeat for Kemp, who had called the session in the first place, the threat of a redraw remains. Even if Republicans lose their iron grip on state government in November, they can still pass new maps during a lame-duck session.

NJ Redistricting

Despite making some recent noises about revisiting the state’s congressional map, New Jersey Democrats seem to have given up on the idea, Politico’s Matt Friedman reports.

To draw a new map in time for the 2028 elections, the Democratic-dominated legislature would have to place a constitutional amendment before voters that would reassign powers currently held by the state’s bipartisan redistricting commission. Such an amendment could appear on the ballot either this fall or next.

Last month, Senate President Nick Scutari, who had previously opposed the idea, expressed new openness to the possibility, saying, “We can’t just let states like Texas [redraw maps] when New Jersey can be in that fight.”

But according to Friedman, Democrats are worried that an effort to replace the current map with a more aggressive gerrymander “would likely require uncomfortable votes and maybe court fights.” One unnamed “very influential Democratic insider” warned that “we’ll be subject to whatever the courts decide, and they’ll probably say this is a little bit of a stretch.”

However, a constitutional amendment would insulate a new map from almost any legal review, since it could limit the grounds on which state courts could review any redrawn districts. Federal courts would also be extremely unlikely to weigh in, since the Supreme Court has all but foreclosed redistricting challenges.

Senate

LA-Sen

Just weeks ago, Rep. Julia Letlow seemed poised for an easy win against Louisiana Treasurer John Fleming in the Republican runoff for Senate on June 27, but warning signs have emerged as a poll from a Letlow ally reportedly shows her narrowly trailing.

“It’s closer than anybody wished it was,” lobbyist Alton Ashy, who commissioned the poll, conceded to NOLA.com’s Tyler Bridges.

Ashy, a well-connected figure who’s helped Letlow raise money, declined to share the results of his survey, which was conducted by the firm BDPC. Bridges, however, says they show Fleming ahead 40-38.

During the first round of the primary, Ashy wasn’t so reticent about publicizing favorable polls, when Letlow faced both Fleming and Sen. Bill Cassidy.

Multiple surveys conducted for Ashy by BDPC showed Letlow, who is backed by both Donald Trump and Gov. Jeff Landry, performing well against both opponents, including during a stretch when political observers wondered whether Letlow would even make it to a runoff.

Ashy was right to be confident about Letlow’s prospects on May 16 against both Cassidy, who became a conservative pariah after he voted to convict Trump following the Jan. 6 riots, and Fleming, a wealthy former congressman who lacked many major allies.

Letlow scored first with 45%—just a few points shy of the majority she needed to win outright—while Fleming edged out Cassidy 28-25 for the second runoff spot.

After that bout, it looked like the hard part might be over for Letlow. While Fleming argued he was still in contention by releasing an internal poll showing the congresswoman ahead just 45-44, a different survey conducted during the first days of the runoff gave Letlow a dominant 52-35 advantage.

No one has released fresh data in the month of June, but the second round has been anything but anticlimactic.

Fleming generated attention last week when he shared what he called a “parody video” on social media depicting an AI-generated version of Letlow saying, “I was aiming to become a University of Louisiana president when my poor husband died, and I was appointed to his congressional seat.”

The real Letlow, who was elected to Congress in 2021 after her husband, Rep.-elect Luke Letlow, died of COVID before he could be sworn in, responded by condemning her opponent.

“To include my late husband Luke in your video is unconscionable,” she said in a video of her own. “You didn’t just mention his death, you made a spectacle of it like it was entertainment.”

Fleming, though, has refused to take down his post. He instead said Friday that an outside group supporting Letlow must remove its own “dishonest” videos against him before he’d think about following suit. Fleming’s post remains online nearly a week later.

Governors

MD-Gov

Democratic Gov. Wes Moore is meddling in next week’s Republican primary by ostensibly attacking former Del. Dan Cox, who is seeking a rematch four years after he lost to Moore in a landslide, while trying to block wealthy businessman Ed Hale.

The Baltimore Banner writes that Moore is running ads on Fox News and social media declaring that Cox is “too conservative for Maryland” and too close to Donald Trump.

His spots, though, make a different argument against Hale, the 79-year-old owner of the Baltimore Blast indoor soccer team. Viewers are reminded that Hale changed his party affiliation from Democratic to Republican last year, a switch that shows he “can’t be trusted.”

Moore’s offensive comes four years after his allies successfully boosted Cox, an election conspiracy theorist, in his primary against Kelly Schulz, a former state cabinet official backed by termed-out Gov. Larry Hogan. Cox’s win all but ensured Moore’s election in this dark blue state, and the Democrat went on to prevail in a 65-32 landslide.

Hale’s allies responded to the governor’s ads by urging Republican voters to avoid a repeat of what happened in 2022. Moore’s team, meanwhile, insisted he was “not going to take anything for granted, no matter who we’re running against.”

MI-Gov

Rep. John James’ allies are now attacking former Attorney General Mike Cox, who had spent the race looking largely like an afterthought, along with wealthy businessman Perry Johnson, James’ main rival in the August Republican primary for Michigan’s open governorship.

“I’m Trump without the baggage,” the audience sees Johnson proclaim in a 2023 clip from his doomed campaign to wrest the GOP presidential nomination from Donald Trump.

This spot from Mission Michigan, a group funded by members of the wealthy DeVos family, continues by faulting Cox as someone who “never endorsed Trump, not against Hillary, Biden, or Kamala.”

The narrator continues, “If Johnson and Cox wouldn’t stand with Trump when it mattered, they won’t start now.” The ad concludes by declaring that James is “the only one to stand with Trump from the start.”

Both Cox and Johnson were quick to express their disgust with the commercial, which Mission Michigan tells the Detroit News it will spend $1 million to air.

“I was not in office,” Cox told the paper. The former attorney general, who was last on the ballot in 2010 when he took third place in the primary for governor, added, “I was Trump’s lawyer in 2024 and gave him money every time he ran.”

Cox made those same points on social media on Wednesday, but he also highlighted James’ own conflicts with Trump.

“He attacks the President when it’s politically convenient, ignored him when asked to stay in Congress, and now blatantly lies about others to deflect from his own record,” Cox tweeted.

Johnson, likewise, took to X to defend his pro-Trump bona fides.

“I was invited by the president’s team to speak in support of President Trump at the 2024 Republican National Convention,” he wrote. “John James called President Trump ‘unfit to lead’ and said he ‘can’t be trusted.’”

The ultra-wealthy Johnson, though, has considerably more resources to push back than Cox does. AdImpact reported Wednesday that Johnson’s side has spent or reserved $22 million on advertising, which is four times as much as what James and his backers have put up.

Cox, meanwhile, is benefitting from just $3.3 million in support. State Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt, the final GOP candidate, is even further back with $1.6 million in ad time.

House

House Majority PAC

The House Majority PAC announced a second round of fall ad reservations on Wednesday, totaling $11.5 million in Florida and Virginia.

The super PAC added almost $4.6 million to its existing bookings of $1.4 million in the Norfolk media market, aimed at unseating Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans in Virginia’s 2nd District. It also booked $2 million in ad time in Richmond, which covers the 2nd District, where Republican Rep. Rob Wittman is the Democrats’ target.

In Florida, meanwhile, HMP boosted its planned presence in Miami with another $2.3 million, on top of its previous booking of $9 million. It also reserved $2.6 million in West Palm Beach.

The likeliest beneficiary of both moves is Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz, who faces a more difficult path to reelection following the enactment of the GOP’s new gerrymander. However, the money could also be spent in several Republican-held districts, chief among them the 27th, which is represented by GOP Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar.

You can track all fall TV and digital reservations from HMP and its peers by bookmarking our continually updated database.

Poll Pile

• OH-Sen: Tulchin Research for John Kulewicz:

  • Sherrod Brown (D): 46, Jon Husted (R-inc): 42, Bill Redpath (Libertarian): 4.

  • John Kulewicz is the Democratic nominee for Ohio attorney general.

• OH-Gov: Tulchin for Kulewicz:

  • Amy Acton (D): 47, Vivek Ramaswamy (R): 44, Don Kissick (L): 4.

• NY-17: Tavern Research (D):

  • Cait Conley: 34, Beth Davidson: 23, Effie Phillips-Staley: 13, other candidates 1% each.

• TN-05: Impact Research for Chaz Molder:

  • Andy Ogles (R-inc): 47, Chaz Molder (D): 41.

  • The poll was conducted May 11-13.

• OH-AG: Tulchin for Kulewicz:

  • Keith Faber (R): 34, John Kulewicz (D): 34.

Correction: This post incorrectly swapped Virginia’s 1st and 2nd congressional districts in our House Majority PAC item. The 1st District is in the Richmond media market while the 2nd District is in the Norfolk media market, not the reverse.