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My Ramblings's avatar

If you check out DavesRedistricting you can check out the new maps for those states and the presidential margins

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#home

They have some updated maps for a few other freshly gerrymandered states, but are missing a few (namely Alabama and Louisiana)

Doug Reimel's avatar

You got Kiggans’s and Wittman’s districts mixed up….the 2nd is in VA beach/Norfolk, the 1st wraps around Richmond and extends up 95 and over to Tidewater north of the city of Richmond.

David Nir's avatar

Thank you for the catch!

Nels Leutwiler's avatar

How much is a subscription?

David Nir's avatar

$7 a month or $60 a year. As Alfred E. Neuman would say, cheap! https://www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Laura Belin's avatar

This is the best year for GOP self-funding candidates that I can remember.

Sam's avatar

Maine RCV tabulation should be completed today

Paleo's avatar

Maybe.

State election officials announced late-Wednesday afternoon that the ranked-choice runoffs in several high-profile primary races have been pushed back until at least Thursday because of issues with a small number of ballots.

https://www.mainepublic.org/politics/2026-06-17/ranked-choice-runoffs-for-governor-2nd-district-primaries-could-happen-wednesday

Hudson Democrat's avatar

most of the remaining vote count is from super rural, native american communities, maine needs to do better with voter access to first nations peoples. If you're mad blame janet mills and her anti native policies

anonymouse's avatar

I doubt Janet Mills is the sole one responsible for the abysmally slow vote count.

What worries me is the not far-fetched scenario where Maine’s Senate race goes to RCV this fall. Not knowing the fate of the Senate with Trump probably threatening to send in the feds is going to be a clusterfuck. Maine needs to be ready for that. That towns are not reporting any results over a week later and is a recurring problem every election cycle shows the state isn’t taking it seriously.

AnthonySF's avatar

I’m confused how you can have results from the first round but not the second — why isn’t all this info transmitted on election night? Even if you aren’t tabulating it all then?

Hudson Democrat's avatar

AP still has about 3,000 first round votes left outstanding per my check, no real movement since election night other than jackson is holding steady 4.75k votes behind pingree and bellows has fallen almost a full thousand votes behind troy. King will be out and then likely bellows will be out. Pingree still seems to have best chance, but who knows

Paleo's avatar

MN Senate SUSA:

Four-term Congresswoman Angie Craig leads a tightly contested DFL primary for U.S. Senate.

Craig garnered 41% of the vote, ahead of the 36% for Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, who won the DFL endorsement. Roughly 18% of respondents are still undecided while 6% support another DFL candidate.

https://kstp.com/kstp-news/top-news/kstp-surveyusa-poll-lindell-leads-gop-governor-race-tafoya-craig-up-in-senate-primaries/#senategop

A bit of a surprise, but there's a large undecided.

Mike Johnson's avatar

Flanagan only plus 7 with voters under 34 seems unlikely, based on most other primaries with these dynamics.

Haggy's avatar

Hope Flanagan pulls through

JanusIanitos's avatar

Is this the first poll with Craig ahead?

Paleo's avatar

I believe so.

Techno00's avatar

Huh. Every other poll has Flanagan ahead.

How is this pollster’s record? Are they generally good at predicting results, or do they have a lot of failed predictions in their past?

Paleo's avatar

Good pollster.

AnthonySF's avatar

I think all the others were internals or aligned groups

Aaron Apollo Camp's avatar

I saw someone on Threads claiming that this poll was sponsored by North Star Dawn PAC, which is a pro-Craig PAC, although most of SurveyUSA's polls in Minnesota are sponsored by Hubbard Broadcasting (which owns KSTP-TV in the Minneapolis TV market and two other local TV stations serving parts of Minnesota).

Aaron Apollo Camp's avatar

(Rewritten comment)

I checked Politics1, and they list five DFL primary candidates for U.S. Senate: Flanagan, Craig, George Kalberer (a frequent candidate), Peter Murgic (Politics1 did not provide background information about him), and Billy Nord (a radio show producer who has never held elected office before), although it's certainly possible that at least one of them did not make the primary ballot for whatever reason. I don't think the candidates other than Flanagan and Craig are going to get 6% of the vote, although polling generally overestimates the eventual vote share for minor candidates, whether it be individually or as a group.

Aaron Apollo Camp's avatar

Minnesota does not use runoffs or RCV in primaries, so Lindell could easily win the GOP primary for governor with a lot less than a majority of the vote.

Paleo's avatar

More on that Mitchell poll:

Boaz said the McMorrow campaign reached out to MIRS after “we noticed odd things about the data,” including that 0 percent of Black voters were undecided in the race; 0 or 1 percent of voters in Detroit and its metro area were undecided while other parts of the state had undecided voters at 25 percent, 48 percent, and even 54 percent; and that McMorrow was at just 5 percent support in her home base of Oakland County.

Their suspicion — which they said MIRS confirmed — was that the poll allowed anyone to take it through an open link, rather than having access controlled to ensure a random and representative sample of the state.

https://www.politico.com/news/2026/06/17/mcmorrow-michigan-senate-poll-00965924

Aaron Apollo Camp's avatar

AES will probably finish third in Oakland County in the Democratic primary even if he wins statewide, so I could definitely understand McMorrow's complaint.

Mike Boland's avatar

Disappointed in Wes Moore wasting money on the Republican candidates that could be against him. He could show real leadership by using the money to help for the state senate or for candidate across the country who need help. We who are small givers cannot carry the ball. Helping others acrose the country might help him in a latter race for President.y

JazElections's avatar

Shit, him too? I posted a comment down thread without knowing about this.

Mr. Rochester's avatar

I'm honestly really sick of these tactics by democrats. They're too cute by a half and seem to fail way more often than they succeed.

stevk's avatar

I don't think that's true. We've been pretty successful in getting easier GE opponents this way, going all the way back to Todd Akin in MO-Sen in 2012.

Mr. Rochester's avatar

Todd Akin is one of the few examples where it worked and it's why everyone thinks it'll work for them, but if you look at how often Democrats try it, it fails the majority of the time. It's true that Dems get their preferred general election candidate pretty frequently, but that's because Trump is a total moron and endorses bad candidates. His endorsement doesn't guarantee a win in the primary, but it's still the single most powerful factor in Republican primaries across the country. So long as that remains true, Democrats investing a million here and there to boost weak candidates isn't going to work unless they also have Trump's endorsement.

To address the comment above that it worked for Warnock, the reason Herschel Walker won was because he got Trump's endorsement and faced no serious primary opposition. I don't think you can look at that and think that it was our efforts that made the difference.

D S's avatar

Democrats have a supermajority in the state senate, and are not at any risk of losing that. As far as I'm aware, it'd be unusual for any politician, especially a non-federal one, to financially support candidates from across the country. Ensuring Moore has a weak general election opponent helps Democrats downballot, anyways.

Martybooks's avatar

PA Franklin and Marshall poll. Generic Ds +12 and Shapiro by s lot https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2067606867090559145?s=20

Techno00's avatar

Shapiro is popular enough that Garrity’s run was doomed enough to border on sacrificial lamb candidate territory, in my opinion.

MPC's avatar

I wonder if there's any polling for state legislative races, whether they're close to the D+8-12 congressional polling.

If it's anywhere close to the federal races, whoa.

AnthonySF's avatar

This means we are beating McKenzie, Bresnahan, and Perry, and Fitzpatrick is at worst a coin flip. How anyone could say the U.S. House overall is anything other than a Dem flip is in la la land.

Techno00's avatar

I need to stay off social media. Right now there’s just endless shit-flinging between the center and left over the DC result. At least one idiot (some NewsNation reporter apparently) suggested banning DSA candidates from Dem primaries or at least the VAN database, which is both impossible and politically suicidal.

It’s times like this I admire this community even more, for being level headed, sane, and being able to discuss heated races with at least a modicum of calmness. I’ve even reevaluated some of my own positions in engaging with this community — I used to actually be more radical and more obnoxious before my time here. Thank you all for being such a great space for discussing politics.

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Buckeye73's avatar

They are full of toxic people and a whole lot of bots that encourage them to be toxic.

Mike Johnson's avatar

I recommend that everybody get off Twitter, unless of course you have to be there for work (but have a decent detox process every day/week for mental health). Never got on Bluesky since it seemed likely to go the same way as Twitter.

Ben F.'s avatar

I do have a soft spot for Bluesky. That particular kind of openly hateful stuff on Twitter? Not really a think on Bluesky. For the non-political subjects I like to talk about on social media, it's great for that. The downside is that many Bluesky commenters are extreme doomers. And also on particular candidates there is often groupthink to a strong degree (i.e. very anti-Platner)

Zero Cool's avatar

From someone I know who works in tech sales at a company near Silicon Valley, Twitter/X is helpful if your agenda is to get connected to the startup & tech community. They tend to be quite active there.

It’s all the more interesting that Bluesky has the base of users that got disillusioned with Elon Musk’s takeover of Twitter (which by the way would not have been possible if Twitter’s CEO and board at the time were not so naive and stupid) as Bluesky, like Twitter, is founded by Jack Dorsey.

JazElections's avatar

I only use social media (Meta's apps, unfortunately) as a way to communicate with friends and for my personal entertainment, trying to stay away from discourse and noise most of the time.

Zero Cool's avatar

I suggest connecting through Meetup. Although it’s not specifically social media, it’s a perfect way to get your mind off social media.

I’ve found socializing through meetup events in-person are effective in getting my mind off the internet.

stevk's avatar

Well put - I like the way in which we all challenge each other here in a respectful and constructive fashion.

Paleo's avatar

Cook moves three house races from likely to lean R: IA 2, MI 4 and NC 11. Four others move from solid R to likely R: AL 2, SC 1, OH 7 and MN 1.

https://thecookpoliticalreport.substack.com/p/seven-house-races-shift-toward-dems

Techno00's avatar

Damn, even with the gerrymander we still have a shot in AL-2. Americans truly are white-hot angry at the administration.

Paleo's avatar

As I recall, under the new map the district is still nearly 40% AA.

JoeyJoeJoe1980's avatar

In 2008, under the lines of AL-2 at the time, Democrats turned out enough to elect Bobby Bright to Congress even while John McCain got just over 60% in the district. It’s not the same situation, but there is precedent for huge democratic turnout to make a difference here.

AnthonySF's avatar

What are the Biden and Kamala numbers in the new district?

anonymouse's avatar

The first three are long overdue and might even be tossups.

MPC's avatar

Cook sees the blue wave, yet they and Sabato are dragging their feet.

JazElections's avatar

I have McCann barely ousting Huizenga then Mitchell and Edwards barely winning in the others.

Buckeye73's avatar

Is that good news for Sean McCann? /s

Daniel Ricci's avatar

I love that that joke still circulates.

FeingoldFan's avatar

Why on earth was OH-7 ever listed as solidly Republican? Moreno only won the district by 1 point in 2024, incumbent Max Miller only got 51% there, the district has the same base partisanship that Ohio had overall in the presidential election, and Max Miller has some truly disgusting scandals. The district frankly should be considered a tossup in any environment where we’re competitive statewide.

JazElections's avatar

https://www.shreveporttimes.com/story/news/2026/06/15/who-is-running-in-chaotic-louisiana-fifth-congressional-district-race-trump-has-endorsed/90551674007/

LA-5, LA-6: Here are the likely shakeups in Republican primaries regarding Louisiana's new congressional map:

LA-5: State Rep. Mike Echols, Board of Regents member Misti Cordell and Navy veteran Sammy Wyatt will continue their runs, while state Sen. Stewart Cathey and state Rep. Gabe Firment will enter.

LA-6: Trump-endorsed state Sen. Blake Miguez, who moved to the district in preparation to run for the old 5th, will transfer his run here, where he will face state Sen. Rick Edmonds. Former Rep. Garret Graves, who represented territory similar to this, already said he would not run this cycle.

AnthonySF's avatar

New Platner ad with clip of Collins saying she doesn't regret her Kavanaugh vote:

https://x.com/grahamformaine/status/2067638629602628058?s=20

Hopefully this will become as ubiquitious as Arlen Specter's "changing parties will allow me to be re-ELECTed."

Zero Cool's avatar

Platner really didn’t waste any time here. Putting this ad up early in the general election cycle makes Collins more vulnerable for attacks than she’s used to.

Techno00's avatar

Someone on here was saying they should be blasting this on the airwaves. That person got their wish.

MPC's avatar

That was me.

Judy Richardson's avatar

Pathetic that his wife went after the other woman and not her husband.

michaelflutist's avatar

Do we know whether she went after her husband or not? Who knows what went on behind closed doors. And the other woman deserved the callout.

UpstateNYer's avatar

Any thoughts on the Makerfield by-election today? Public polling seems to have Labour leading but this area has swung massively toward Reform in the past few years. Bold (and potentially brilliant) play by Burnham to try and win here when there were easier seats in the area he could have won but potential for a major faceplant if Reform pull off the upset. If Burnham does win I don't expect Starmer to last much longer than a head of lettuce, if that.

Henrik's avatar

My read is that Burnham wins, though probably not as comfortably as he’d like, and essentially tosses the gauntlet down immediately.

Starmer seems like the type who needs a second to read the writing on the wall. Wes Streeting will challenge but idk how much oxygen there is for his brand of post-Blair reheated New Labour, especially considering the base complaints about Starmer, who whatever his faults is to Streeting’s left. Burnham probably coasts into a job nobody else wants by late September, finds a sinecure for Streeting while punting Reeves and other people associated too closely with Starmer to the backbench

Matt's avatar

I cherish the UK because it's at least one country that is flushing itself down the toilet faster than the US is...

RainDog2's avatar

As a UK resident, I would vehemently deny that.

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RainDog2's avatar

Is it, though? I was on Kamala's email list...

Matt's avatar

Yeah, after I posted this, I started to doubt myself. For the time being, Trump is clearly doing more damage to the US than Starmer is to the UK. That said, at least we have a chance to turn things around come 2028, while Labour is squandering its chance at any real progress in favor of pandering to the right. Perhaps my verdict will be more apt come 2029, assuming a Reform or rightwing coalition victory in the UK, as seems likely at least right now, and (god-willing) a Democratic trifecta in the US.

Paleo's avatar

England seems to have more raging bigots than the U.S. And its “news” media may be even worse.

Eleanor's avatar

Starmer himself not actively making the UK worse than Trump is not the bar; he's supposed to be the antidote to Farage, not Farage-lite, which is how a lot of people, I think correctly, are seeing him at this point.

Agree that current Labour is all that the Democrats are accused of being (and imo mostly not, in fact)

JazElections's avatar

https://www.wired.com/story/leak-exposes-members-of-peter-thiels-secretive-dialog-society/

https://factually.co/fact-checks/media/leaked-dialog-roster-names-public-roles-0acc38

https://mdbaynews.com/2026/06/17/wes-moore-dialog-records-contradict-office-claims/

MD-Gov, NJ-Sen, CT-4: Leaked documents showed that Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, Sen. Cory Booker and Rep. Jim Himes, all Democrats, were on a list of public officials (that also included Sen. Ted Cruz, DOT head Scott Bessent, NATO general Alexus Grynkewich and former deputy AG Lisa Monaco) associated with a club linked to Palantir founder Peter Thiel, which served as a base to prepare for World War III and to establish a cult, among other things.

Techno00's avatar

Holy shit! Not at all good.

Aaron Apollo Camp's avatar

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Scott Bessent, Trump's Treasury secretary, were also a part of Thiel's super-secret club, as well as former Biden DoJ official Lisa Monaco.

JazElections's avatar

I was wondering who the other senator was. That doesn't surprise me.

Techno00's avatar

So was Rep. Jim Himes.

michaelflutist's avatar

That sounds like a dream or made-up story. Leaked documents can be forgeries, too. Let's see how the story develops in the coming days.

Techno00's avatar

The person who leaked it previously accessed part of the no fly list. They’re established as legit.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maia_arson_crimew

michaelflutist's avatar

OK, well what does it mean for Senator Booker and Representative Himes to have been associated with this?

JazElections's avatar

They'll both likely win re-election and nothing will come of it, unfortunately. It's not surprising regarding both of them (terrible campaign finance, backroom deals with Republicans on key votes, etc.)

S Kolb's avatar

agree...this will be old news by next week and nothing will come of it

Techno00's avatar

Frankly it shouldn’t be. This isn’t as insane as Epstein but this is serious shit.

finnley's avatar

I’ve had a feeling Justice Dems/others may target Himes eventually, so maybe this will encourage a challenge. I could see progressive Bridgeport city councilmember Aikeem Boyd running in 2028

michaelflutist's avatar

Also, just because the person who leaked it is legit doesn't mean they weren't duped by a good forgery. We do still have to wait for reactions.

Toiler On the Sea's avatar

Well there goes a few race that should not be named ambitions . .

Paleo's avatar

I don't know if they knew of the real purpose. They could have thought it was just a Davos or Bohemian Grove thing.

Techno00's avatar

Still not a good look, as them not knowing speaks to a lack of research/potentially poor judgement on their part.

Wolfpack Dem's avatar

Booker got some "potential weirdo" eyebrow pops (from me anyway) wrt RFK, too

michaelflutist's avatar

Definitely. But it's pretty easy to be a better person than Thiel. Keep in mind, though, there are terrible people who come from everyplace, including one Jewish Nazi who was bar mitzvahed in a shul in his native town of Santa Monica whose rabbi has condemned him.