You got Kiggans’s and Wittman’s districts mixed up….the 2nd is in VA beach/Norfolk, the 1st wraps around Richmond and extends up 95 and over to Tidewater north of the city of Richmond.
State election officials announced late-Wednesday afternoon that the ranked-choice runoffs in several high-profile primary races have been pushed back until at least Thursday because of issues with a small number of ballots.
most of the remaining vote count is from super rural, native american communities, maine needs to do better with voter access to first nations peoples. If you're mad blame janet mills and her anti native policies
I doubt Janet Mills is the sole one responsible for the abysmally slow vote count.
What worries me is the not far-fetched scenario where Maine’s Senate race goes to RCV this fall. Not knowing the fate of the Senate with Trump probably threatening to send in the feds is going to be a clusterfuck. Maine needs to be ready for that. That towns are not reporting any results over a week later and is a recurring problem every election cycle shows the state isn’t taking it seriously.
AP still has about 3,000 first round votes left outstanding per my check, no real movement since election night other than jackson is holding steady 4.75k votes behind pingree and bellows has fallen almost a full thousand votes behind troy. King will be out and then likely bellows will be out. Pingree still seems to have best chance, but who knows
Four-term Congresswoman Angie Craig leads a tightly contested DFL primary for U.S. Senate.
Craig garnered 41% of the vote, ahead of the 36% for Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, who won the DFL endorsement. Roughly 18% of respondents are still undecided while 6% support another DFL candidate.
Boaz said the McMorrow campaign reached out to MIRS after “we noticed odd things about the data,” including that 0 percent of Black voters were undecided in the race; 0 or 1 percent of voters in Detroit and its metro area were undecided while other parts of the state had undecided voters at 25 percent, 48 percent, and even 54 percent; and that McMorrow was at just 5 percent support in her home base of Oakland County.
Their suspicion — which they said MIRS confirmed — was that the poll allowed anyone to take it through an open link, rather than having access controlled to ensure a random and representative sample of the state.
Disappointed in Wes Moore wasting money on the Republican candidates that could be against him. He could show real leadership by using the money to help for the state senate or for candidate across the country who need help. We who are small givers cannot carry the ball. Helping others acrose the country might help him in a latter race for President.y
I need to stay off social media. Right now there’s just endless shit-flinging between the center and left over the DC result. At least one idiot (some NewsNation reporter apparently) suggested banning DSA candidates from Dem primaries or at least the VAN database, which is both impossible and politically suicidal.
It’s times like this I admire this community even more, for being level headed, sane, and being able to discuss heated races with at least a modicum of calmness. I’ve even reevaluated some of my own positions in engaging with this community — I used to actually be more radical and more obnoxious before my time here. Thank you all for being such a great space for discussing politics.
I recommend that everybody get off Twitter, unless of course you have to be there for work (but have a decent detox process every day/week for mental health). Never got on Bluesky since it seemed likely to go the same way as Twitter.
Now that all the districts are (finally) fully set for this fall, is there going to be an update to the presidential margins in all the states that changed? Know it's a lot, especially since CA, TX and FL are so huge, but I think it would be extremely informative to everyone (not just here but to the field).
LA-5, LA-6: Here are the likely shakeups in Republican primaries regarding Louisiana's new congressional map:
LA-5: State Rep. Mike Echols, Board of Regents member Misti Cordell and Navy veteran Sammy Wyatt will continue their runs, while state Sen. Stewart Cathey and state Rep. Gabe Firment will enter.
LA-6: Trump-endorsed state Sen. Blake Miguez, who moved to the district in preparation to run for the old 5th, will transfer his run here, where he will face state Sen. Rick Edmonds. Former Rep. Garret Graves, who represented territory similar to this, already said he would not run this cycle.
You got Kiggans’s and Wittman’s districts mixed up….the 2nd is in VA beach/Norfolk, the 1st wraps around Richmond and extends up 95 and over to Tidewater north of the city of Richmond.
Thank you for the catch!
How much is a subscription?
$7 a month or $60 a year. As Alfred E. Neuman would say, cheap! https://www.the-downballot.com/subscribe
This is the best year for GOP self-funding candidates that I can remember.
Maine RCV tabulation should be completed today
Maybe.
State election officials announced late-Wednesday afternoon that the ranked-choice runoffs in several high-profile primary races have been pushed back until at least Thursday because of issues with a small number of ballots.
https://www.mainepublic.org/politics/2026-06-17/ranked-choice-runoffs-for-governor-2nd-district-primaries-could-happen-wednesday
Embarrassing
most of the remaining vote count is from super rural, native american communities, maine needs to do better with voter access to first nations peoples. If you're mad blame janet mills and her anti native policies
I doubt Janet Mills is the sole one responsible for the abysmally slow vote count.
What worries me is the not far-fetched scenario where Maine’s Senate race goes to RCV this fall. Not knowing the fate of the Senate with Trump probably threatening to send in the feds is going to be a clusterfuck. Maine needs to be ready for that. That towns are not reporting any results over a week later and is a recurring problem every election cycle shows the state isn’t taking it seriously.
AP still has about 3,000 first round votes left outstanding per my check, no real movement since election night other than jackson is holding steady 4.75k votes behind pingree and bellows has fallen almost a full thousand votes behind troy. King will be out and then likely bellows will be out. Pingree still seems to have best chance, but who knows
MN Senate SUSA:
Four-term Congresswoman Angie Craig leads a tightly contested DFL primary for U.S. Senate.
Craig garnered 41% of the vote, ahead of the 36% for Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, who won the DFL endorsement. Roughly 18% of respondents are still undecided while 6% support another DFL candidate.
https://kstp.com/kstp-news/top-news/kstp-surveyusa-poll-lindell-leads-gop-governor-race-tafoya-craig-up-in-senate-primaries/#senategop
A bit of a surprise, but there's a large undecided.
Flanagan only plus 7 with voters under 34 seems unlikely, based on most other primaries with these dynamics.
Hope Flanagan pulls through
Is this the first poll with Craig ahead?
I believe so.
Huh. Every other poll has Flanagan ahead.
How is this pollster’s record? Are they generally good at predicting results, or do they have a lot of failed predictions in their past?
Good pollster.
More on that Mitchell poll:
Boaz said the McMorrow campaign reached out to MIRS after “we noticed odd things about the data,” including that 0 percent of Black voters were undecided in the race; 0 or 1 percent of voters in Detroit and its metro area were undecided while other parts of the state had undecided voters at 25 percent, 48 percent, and even 54 percent; and that McMorrow was at just 5 percent support in her home base of Oakland County.
Their suspicion — which they said MIRS confirmed — was that the poll allowed anyone to take it through an open link, rather than having access controlled to ensure a random and representative sample of the state.
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/06/17/mcmorrow-michigan-senate-poll-00965924
Disappointed in Wes Moore wasting money on the Republican candidates that could be against him. He could show real leadership by using the money to help for the state senate or for candidate across the country who need help. We who are small givers cannot carry the ball. Helping others acrose the country might help him in a latter race for President.y
https://mdbaynews.com/2026/06/17/wes-moore-dialog-records-contradict-office-claims/
Maybe it was Peter Thiel’s idea
PA Franklin and Marshall poll. Generic Ds +12 and Shapiro by s lot https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2067606867090559145?s=20
Shapiro is popular enough that Garrity’s run was doomed enough to border on sacrificial lamb candidate territory, in my opinion.
I wonder if there's any polling for state legislative races, whether they're close to the D+8-12 congressional polling.
If it's anywhere close to the federal races, whoa.
I need to stay off social media. Right now there’s just endless shit-flinging between the center and left over the DC result. At least one idiot (some NewsNation reporter apparently) suggested banning DSA candidates from Dem primaries or at least the VAN database, which is both impossible and politically suicidal.
It’s times like this I admire this community even more, for being level headed, sane, and being able to discuss heated races with at least a modicum of calmness. I’ve even reevaluated some of my own positions in engaging with this community — I used to actually be more radical and more obnoxious before my time here. Thank you all for being such a great space for discussing politics.
Bluesky and Twitter are cesspits lol
I recommend that everybody get off Twitter, unless of course you have to be there for work (but have a decent detox process every day/week for mental health). Never got on Bluesky since it seemed likely to go the same way as Twitter.
Cook moves three house races from likely to lean R: IA 2, MI 4 and NC 11. Four others move from solid R to likely R: AL 2, SC 1, OH 7 and MN 1.
https://thecookpoliticalreport.substack.com/p/seven-house-races-shift-toward-dems
Damn, even with the gerrymander we still have a shot in AL-2. Americans truly are white-hot angry at the administration.
As I recall, under the new map the district is still nearly 40% AA.
The first three are long overdue and might even be tossups.
Cook sees the blue wave, yet they and Sabato are dragging their feet.
I have McCann barely ousting Huizenga then Mitchell and Edwards barely winning in the others.
Now that all the districts are (finally) fully set for this fall, is there going to be an update to the presidential margins in all the states that changed? Know it's a lot, especially since CA, TX and FL are so huge, but I think it would be extremely informative to everyone (not just here but to the field).
https://www.shreveporttimes.com/story/news/2026/06/15/who-is-running-in-chaotic-louisiana-fifth-congressional-district-race-trump-has-endorsed/90551674007/
LA-5, LA-6: Here are the likely shakeups in Republican primaries regarding Louisiana's new congressional map:
LA-5: State Rep. Mike Echols, Board of Regents member Misti Cordell and Navy veteran Sammy Wyatt will continue their runs, while state Sen. Stewart Cathey and state Rep. Gabe Firment will enter.
LA-6: Trump-endorsed state Sen. Blake Miguez, who moved to the district in preparation to run for the old 5th, will transfer his run here, where he will face state Sen. Rick Edmonds. Former Rep. Garret Graves, who represented territory similar to this, already said he would not run this cycle.