Morning Digest: Top ICE official launches campaign to flip House seat in Ohio

Madison Sheahan wants to defeat veteran Rep. Marcy Kaptur in a district that just got more conservative

Madison Sheahan (center) is running for Congress in Ohio (credit: Madison Sheahan video)

Leading Off

OH-09

Madison Sheahan announced Thursday that she was stepping down as deputy director of ICE and seeking the Republican nomination to take on Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur.

“In less than one year at ICE, I’ve stopped more illegal immigration than Marcy Kaptur has in her 43 years in Washington,” Sheahan proclaims in her launch video. “Ohio neighborhoods are safer thanks to President Trump and ICE.”

Sheahan, a 28-year-old Ohio native who previously worked as a political aide for then-South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem and in Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry’s administration, is competing in a busy May 5 primary.

The GOP field in the 9th District includes Derek Merrin, a former state representative who narrowly lost to Kaptur in 2024; state Rep. Josh Williams; and Air Force veteran Alea Nadeem.

Kaptur, for her part, is seeking a 23rd term even though the state’s most recent round of redistricting made her conservative-leaning constituency even tougher to hold. The bipartisan redistricting commission approved a new map in October that extended Trump’s margin of victory from 53-46 to 55-44.

Morning Digest: Targeted by another gerrymander, Marcy Kaptur says she won't back down

Kaptur, though, responded to the unwelcome development by dispelling any talk she’d retire. The congresswoman said in a statement last fall, “I remain committed to serving Northwest Ohio and will seek re-election with a renewed focus on accountability and protecting the voice of the people.”

Alaska Democrats land the best Senate recruit of the cycle

4Q Fundraising

• GA-Sen: Jon Ossoff (D-inc): $9.9 million raised, $25 million cash on hand

• LA-Sen: Bill Cassidy (R-inc): $1.65 million raised, $11 million cash on hand

• AZ-Gov: Karrin Taylor Robson (R): $700,000 raised, $1.1 million cash on hand

• TX-Gov: Greg Abbott (R-inc): $22.7 million raised (in six months), $105.7 million cash on hand; Gina Hinojosa (D): $1.3 million raised (in 10 weeks); Bobby Cole (D): $61,000 raised (in six months), $27,000 cash on hand

• WI-Gov: Sara Rodriguez (D): $650,000 raised (in six months); Mandela Barnes (D): $555,000 raised (in one month); Kelda Roys (D): $378,000 raised, $335,000 cash on hand; Francesca Hong (D): $368,000 raised (in three-and-a-half months).

• CA-22: Randy Villegas (D): $374,000 raised

• FL-07: Bale Dalton (D): $340,000 raised (in six weeks), $300,000 cash on hand

• FL-19: Catalina Lauf (R): $432,000 raised

• KS-03: Sharice Davids (D-inc): $729,000 raised, $1.3 million cash on hand

• NJ-05: Josh Gottheimer (D-inc): $1.06 million raised

• NJ-09: Nellie Pou (D-inc): $425,000 raised, $1.3 million cash on hand

• VA-07: Eugene Vindman (D-inc): $1.7 million raised, $4.2 million cash on hand

Senate

IL-Sen

A super PAC backing Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton is launching the very first major pro-Stratton TV ad of the March 17 Democratic primary for Illinois’s open Senate seat, a contest where Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi has long enjoyed a huge advantage on the airwaves and in the polls.

Punchbowl News says that Illinois Future PAC will begin airing its opening spot on Friday, but it’s not yet clear how much it’s spending. AdImpact tracked $670,000 through Thursday afternoon, while Rich Miller of the news site Capitol Fax describes it as a “seven-figure buy.” The spot was not available online as of Thursday evening.

The group is taking action after Krishnamoorthi, who is one of the strongest fundraisers in the House, spent half a year as the only candidate on TV. The congressman began airing his first commercials back in July—a full eight months ahead of the primary—and AdImpact reports that his side has spent close to $22 million on advertising.

But Stratton, until this week, received no support on TV. AdImpact also has yet to track any spending from Rep. Robin Kelly, who is the third serious Democratic candidate running to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Dick Durbin, or her allies.

This sustained TV monopoly has helped Krishnamoorthi emerge as the frontrunner with two months left before this reliably blue state holds its primary. Every publicly available poll has shown him ahead of his two serious intraparty opponents, Stratton and Kelly, and Krishnamoorthi released a new one Thursday to reinforce his status.

The survey from GBAO, which was first shared with Politico, shows him outpacing Stratton 41-16, with Kelly taking 15%. A recent poll from Emerson College gave Krishnamoorthi a comparable 31-10 advantage over Stratton, with Kelly at 8%.

Stratton’s allies agree that Krishnamoorthi enjoys a big lead, but they don’t think it’s insurmountable.

The Democratic Lieutenant Governors Association released a poll last month that showed Krishnamoorthi beating her 32-20, with Kelly back at 9%. The memo from Public Policy Polling, though, says that Stratton pulls ahead after respondents learn more about her.

Stratton’s side is hoping this opening buy from Illinois Future PAC will help boost her name recognition before early voting starts next month and help her narrow—and ultimately overcome—her deficit against Krishnamoorthi.

The lieutenant governor’s prospects may also improve if Gov. JB Pritzker, who supports her campaign for a promotion, uses his vast personal resources to aid her effort.

Politico wrote all the way back in March that Stratton believed that Pritzker, a billionaire who has made large donations to support liberal candidates and causes across the country, would be “heavily involved financially” in her effort. Observers will now be watching to see if Illinois Future PAC, which is led by a longtime Pritzker aide, receives extensive support from the governor.

Kelly, for her part, has struggled to raise money or secure the support of well-funded outside groups. The congresswoman, though, did attract national attention last week when she announced she would file articles of impeachment against Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem following the fatal shooting of Renee Good by an ICE agent. Krishnamoorthi soon became one of 70 House Democrats to cosponsor her plan.

MT-Sen

University of Montana President Seth Bodnar is planning to challenge Republican Sen. Steve Daines as an independent, the Montana Free Press’ Tom Lutey reports, and the state’s most prominent Democrat is urging his party to back him rather than field their own candidate.

“During my last two races the Democratic Party was poison in my attempts to get re-elected,” former Sen. Jon Tester wrote in a text message that has been circulating among state Democrats. “That is not to say that is the only reason I got beat in 2024 ... but it was hell of an anvil.”

While Tester, who lost reelection that year 53-46 against Republican Tim Sheehy as Donald Trump carried the state in a 58-38 landslide, has declined to say anything more, Carly Graf of the Bozeman Daily Chronicle confirmed he wrote the text.

But not everyone agrees that Daines’ detractors need to consolidate behind one unaligned candidate. Former Gov. Brian Schweitzer, who led the state from 2005 to 2013, told Lutey it was vital for Democrats to support their own candidates.

Former state Rep. Reilly Neill, who is one of the four Democrats who have entered the June 2 primary, also doesn’t sound inclined to go anywhere. She instead told Lutey she was focusing on her campaign rather than on talk of what Bodnar would do next.

WY-Sen

Retiring Sen. Cynthia Lummis has endorsed Rep. Harriet Hageman, a fellow Wyoming Republican, in the race to succeed her. Hageman, who already had Donald Trump and Sen. John Barrasso in her corner, does not currently face any serious opposition in her campaign for a promotion.

Governors

CT-Gov

Former New York Lt. Gov. Betsy McCaughey announced Wednesday evening that she would seek the Republican nomination for governor—of Connecticut.

McCaughey, 77, grew up in the Nutmeg State, but her only prior runs for office were in New York. She was elected lieutenant governor in 1994 as Republican George Pataki’s running mate, but the two’s relationship became so ugly that McCaughey unsuccessfully sought the Democratic nomination to face him four years later.

McCaughey, though, would return to both her former party and former state. CT Insider writes that the candidate, who is now a TV host for the far-right outlet Newsmax, has lived in Connecticut for roughly the last decade.

McCaughey joins state Sen. Ryan Fazio and former New Britain Mayor Erin Stewart in the Aug. 11 GOP primary to face Democratic Gov. Ned Lamont. Former state Rep. Harry Arora also formed an exploratory committee this week ahead of a possible bid.

FL-Gov

State Sen. Jason Pizzo still isn’t ruling out the possibility that he could run for governor of Florida as an independent, but Politico’s Kimberly Leonard writes that political insiders doubt the former Democrat will enter the race.

Pizzo, who shed his party label last spring, initially announced he was running in May, but he later said in October he hadn’t actually made up his mind. When Leonard asked him this week if such a campaign was no longer a possibility, he responded, “Not entirely.”

House

NJ-11

Essex County Commissioner Brendan Gill is using his first two TV ads to attack former Rep. Tom Malinowski for failing to disclose millions in stock trades he made during the beginning of the COVID pandemic, a topic that dogged Malinowski during his unsuccessful 2022 reelection to New Jersey’s 7th District. The commercials come less than a month before the busy Feb. 5 special Democratic primary for the 11th District.

Gill and his wife, Assemblywoman Alixon Collazos-Gill, begin one spot with Collazos-Gill describing how their daughter “came home terrified: kids at school said ICE was going to deport her.” Gill continues, “I won’t stand for it—not for my kids, not for anyone … I’m done with MAGA targeting Jersey—and with Tom Malinowski, who cashed in instead of stopping Trump.”

Another Gill ad features a resident of the 7th District saying that Malinowski “only cares about himself.”

Gill and Malinowski are two of the 11 Democrats running to claim the reliably blue House seat that Mikie Sherrill resigned from last year following her election as governor. Malinowski took to the airwaves last month, and he rolled out a new spot this week castigating Trump and “billionaires screwing working people.”

Another contender, outgoing Lt. Gov. Tahesha Way, also debuted her introductory ad this week. Way, who also serves as secretary of state, tells the audience that “when Donald Trump tried to make it harder to vote here, I beat him in court.”

Progressive activist Analilia Mejia does not appear to have gone on the air yet, but she still generated attention Thursday when she publicized an endorsement from Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York.

Whoever wins next month’s primary will be favored in the April 16 general election for a constituency that Kamala Harris carried 53-45.

NJ-12

Physician Adam Hamawy, who helped save the life of now-Sen. Tammy Duckworth when they were both stationed in Iraq, announced Thursday that he was joining the Democratic primary for New Jersey’s open 12th District.

Duckworth, an Illinois Democrat who lost both her legs after her Blackhawk helicopter was shot down in 2004, has praised Hamawy, who was a trauma combat surgeon, for keeping her alive. Duckworth later advocated for him in 2024 when Hamawy, who was in Gaza providing aid, refused to leave until every member of his medical team was allowed to depart.

Several other Democrats are competing in the June 2 primary for the safely blue seat that Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman is not seeking reelection in, and the field could soon grow again.

Joe Fox reports in the New Jersey Globe that Sue Altman, who waged an unsuccessful campaign against GOP Rep. Tom Kean last cycle in the 7th District, is interested in running for the 12th. Altman, who has since joined Sen. Andy Kim’s staff, has not said anything publicly about her plans.

NY-07

Rep. Nydia Velazquez endorsed Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso on Thursday in the June 23 Democratic primary to succeed her in the reliably blue 7th District.

The incumbent, who is not seeking reelection after 17 terms in Congress, publicly took sides the week after New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani backed Assemblymember Claire Valdez. But while Velazquez supported Mamdani last year when he was still the underdog in his own primary, the congresswoman expressed her displeasure that he was getting involved in the race to replace her.

“Honeymoons are short, and people need to pay attention to the work at hand,” she told the New York Times. “Primaries sometimes can be a distraction from the work that you need to do.”

Ballot Measures

NE Ballot

Republican Gov. Jim Pillen on Thursday called for the Nebraska legislature to place a constitutional amendment on the November ballot to undo a state law that awards presidential candidates an electoral vote for each congressional district they carry.

The unicameral legislature, a unique body whose members are elected in officially nonpartisan elections, has been unable to put this winner-take-all plan in place themselves. While Republican members occupy 33 of the 49 Senate seats—the exact number required to overcome a filibuster—two Republicans sided with the Democratic minority last year to keep the status quo in place.

Pillen would need to convince the two dissenters, Merv Riepe and Dave Wordekemper, to put the issue before voters if he’s to overcome another filibuster. Both Republicans cited their constituents’ support for the current law, which saw Kamala Harris carry the 2nd Congressional District and its electoral vote as Donald Trump easily prevailed statewide, in explaining their stance.

Poll Pile

• TX-Sen (D): Emerson College for Nexstar: James Talarico: 47, Jasmine Crockett: 38, undecided: 15.

• TX-Sen (R): Emerson: Ken Paxton: 27, John Cornyn (inc): 26, Wesley Hunt: 16, undecided: 29.

• TX-Sen: Emerson:

  • Cornyn (R-inc): 47, Talarico (D): 44.

  • Paxton (R): 46, Talarico (D): 46.

  • Hunt (R): 47, Talarico (D): 44.

  • Cornyn (R-inc): 48, Crockett (D): 43.

  • Paxton (R): 46, Crockett (D): 46.

  • Hunt (R): 48, Crockett (D): 43.

• FL-Gov (R): Mason-Dixon: Byron Donalds: 37, Jay Collins: 7, Paul Renner: 4, James Fishback: 3, undecided: 49.

• FL-Gov (D): Mason-Dixon: David Jolly: 23, Jerry Demings: 19, undecided: 58.

• KS-Gov (D): Public Policy Polling (D) for Cindy Holscher: Cindy Holscher: 33, Ethan Corson: 9, undecided: 58.

• TX-Gov: Emerson: Greg Abbott (R-inc): 50, Gina Hinojosa (D): 42.

The Downballot will be off Monday in recognition of Martin Luther King Jr. Day. We’ll be back in your inboxes on Tuesday.

Editor’s Note: The fundraising numbers for Karrin Taylor Robson inadvertently identified her $1.1 million cash on hand as money raised in the fourth quarter.