I know this was a point of contention in your last thread - I appreciate your blog and I don't mean this negatively but I think we would appreciate if you added in a comment about candidates down the ballot. That is the purpose of these threads. You can tie in self promotion to being on topic.
Michael has been a regular commenter on this blog since before it existed in its current form. He was on the Daily Kos Elections subsite and even goes back to the SSP (Swing State Project). Don't be dismissive of someone who has been here for many years. I have been reading his commentary for fifteen years or so. He is an old friend that I have never met in person.
FL-2: State Rep. Jason Shoaf will not run, but surprisingly, former Reps. Gwen Graham *and* Al Lawson are considering, despite Lawson previously declining.
Brutal numbers honestly. Were this anyone else, the Press would already have the Midterm Massacre writeups in their drafts tab. (Instead, we get the "maybe he'll cancel elections" bullcrap.)
Latest CNN poll:
"-58% call Trump's first year a failure
-55% say that Trump’s policies have worsened economic conditions, 32% saying they’ve made an improvement.
-64% say he hasn’t gone far enough in trying to reduce the price of everyday goods
None that have a chance. In Montana our top candidate appears to be a former 1-term state rep who left office a decade ago, in Kansas it's a former USDA official, both appear to be extremely weak.
Unless if we can get the Democratic candidates who have no shot to drop out, an independent liberal isn't winning in Montana, just like how Dan Osborn would have no shot if there was a Democratic nominee.
Which was ironic since the Shah's SAVAK (brutal secret police) didn't burn them, the Cinema Rex fire and massacre was carried out by Khomeini's followers and then mosques spread misinformation.
The latest Emerson poll posted yesterday in the comments and today in the digest gives me hope for what I’d call the perfect layup in Texas. That doesn’t mean success is assured as not all layups get sunk, but if this happens, you couldn’t ask for a better write up for Democrats.
We could know the nominee in March and Republicans could be fighting a 3 way primary until the end of May. With only 2 real candidates and not 3, it’s so much easier for Talarico to hopefully lock up the nomination and spend the next 3 months after barnstorming alternate media, state media and the state itself while raising gobs of cash with the race entirely to himself while the GOP bludgeons each other to a bloody end for whoever emerges victorious.
Couple that with a Trump midterm and mass Hispanic/Latino revolt from the GOP over the consequences Trump promised to do if elected that they refused to believe, it’s not that hard to see a potentially purple Texas come 2027. A lot still needs to go right, I still think it’s Lean R even with Talarico, there’s a ton of work that needs to be done, but it’s by no means impossible either.
That Talarico and Crockett were tied with Paxton in a Trump +14 sample is huge grounds for optimism. Emerson made that same polling mistake in Virginia and New Jersey and was off nearly double digits. There's a solid shot Talarico might even be narrowly favored against Paxton. Hope he wins the primary in March, stockpiles cash as the GOP bloodies itself over the next 2.5 months, and shifts to the middle on some cultural issues. Frame himself positively before the NRSC does. I hope Dems take a leaf out of the McCaskill playbook and attack Paxton as "too conservative for Texas" to get him over the edge in the primary.
I heard a take yesterday from Inside Elections that if Paxton leads Cornyn by a solid amount in the first primary before the runoff, Cornyn might be pressured to drop out to avoid a longer, more expensive battle. Not sure if Cornyn would agree, but that could end the runoff early.
That’s true, candidate/s can always drop out, but Hunt’s voters would theoretically be up for grabs completely to both Cornyn and Paxton since he regularly attacks both candidates and I think it’s probably more likely he either endorses nobody or endorses Cornyn than it is him backing Paxton.
So no matter what result in the first round, unless Paxton gets like 45-49%, there’s a much clearer path for Cornyn and his GOP leadership supporters to see a path for him winning. Republicans have already spent $50m because they’re terrified of Paxton winning the nomination. If they’re willing to spend that much to prevent Paxton now, my guess is they’re willing to risk going to a runoff even if Paxton comes first in the primary.
I think Hunt and Cornyn hate each other. They constantly aim their fire on each other online. Wouldn't be surprised if Hunt endorsed Paxton in the runoff. No way Cornyn is dropping out for Hunt though if he's guaranteed a slot in the runoff himself. Too much bad blood.
It would be particularly important to pay attention to how TX independent and swing voters sentiments evolve heading towards November. If they are making a big swing to the left, that’s a good sign.
OH-09: I don't know if being Kristi Noem's right-hand aide is a plus even in a Trump +11 seat. Kaptur should just run South Park-like ads of Noem and Sheahan shooting peoples' dogs.
Au contraire. She's exactly the kind of nutjob Trump likes. She's a young woman who is very edgy. I bet he endorses her. Kaptur should just go full savage mode and run remakes of the South Park clips of Noem and ICE shooting dogs if she wins the R primary. We need to be cutthroat.
“In less than one year at ICE, I’ve stopped more illegal immigration than Marcy Kaptur has in her 43 years in Washington,” Sheahan proclaims in her launch video.
Well DUH! That was Sheahan’s only job, and not Kaptur's. Stopping one illegal immigrant would be more than Kaptur had any responsibility for. Sheahan might as well have said “I have kissed Kristi Noem’s butt more in one year than Jane Goodall did in her entire life."
“Ohio neighborhoods are safer thanks to President Trump and ICE.”
That, of course is a brazen lie. Nothing ICE is doing is making any neighborhoods safer. They are not prioritizing deportation of criminals, but terrorizing neighborhoods in an attempt to meet President Stephen Miller’s insane quota of deportations.
There's only one Sheahan and that's Cindy Sheehan, who was great in her anti-Iraq War activism after Bush Jr won re-election even while her political agenda after this was all over the place.
But either way, I prefer Cindy Sheehan over Madison Sheahan any day.
There was no bump from the action in Venezuela. Probably because the Chavista government still rules, they'll just pay tribute for loosened economic sanctions.
She really, really wanted to be installed. Now she's regifting her medal as if that changes anything. That's a pittance that makes her look pathetic. I'm sure if Trump demanded she go to the WH kitchen and make him a sandwich, she would have done so.
And for Venezuelan refugees, I'll bet the euphoria of Maduro being removed faded when the entire rest of the government stood firm rather than going down like a house of cards.
Right. I do think Trump successfully tapped into a growing isolationist strain among the electorate that's been growing since the Bush years (which makes this all ironic). There is little appetite among the U.S. populace to get involved in foreign entanglements that aren't due to a direct threat/attack on the U.S.
I’m sure Trump was thinking the capture of President Maduro was just like the US troops were able to find Saddam Hussein back in 2003 after the Iraq War was invaded.
Trump’s certainly trying so hard to impulsively boost up his ratings instead of actually trying to do it the smart way. Of course, we already knew this from his first term as POTUS.
Well Trump certainly doesn’t seem to be catching a break as his polling numbers are dropping in the double digits.
The ACA subsidies issue does appear to be the leading issue that could swing voters to the left, as we obviously knew it would be. -27 in Trump’s approval rating means the GOP really has no ability to spin this, even if they in Congress have a “plan” for healthcare.
On the other hand, the high numbers of the stock market really spiked up in Trump's first term and didn't exactly go substantially down, even during the COVID-19 pandemic and the minor crashes due to the regional bank failures.
Correction to my comment of several days ago as to how Indiana Democrats choose the delegates who will determine the candidate for Secretary of State:
Each county sends the four members of the steering committee (chair, vice-chair, secretary, treasurer) and the ten delegate who are elected on the primary ballot. Here is a link to the official policy:
I had heard the incorrect information at a local party meeting. My husband attended also, and he confirmed that he heard the same incorrect information. A general email from the group yesterday corrected it.
Running "against" a candidate, even one as bad as Morales, is less proactive than running for what you can do for the people of the state. Given the cuts in basic services by the current legislature, while continuing to build up a surplus, not to mention giving our money to private schools, there may be a backlash against the Republicans. The important thing is to have a strong candidate who can take advantage of it.
Our current Attorney General, Todd Rokita, has had major ethics problems. and Republicans still ran him. He won about 60% of the vote in the 2024 election. BTW, the ethics issue has not gone away. Rokita is auditioning for a role in the Trump administration, as he recently said horrible things about the Rene Good shooting in MN, which is not part of his job description.
IL-SEN: A little clarification on the clock. While it's true the primary is two months (and one day) away, the Chicago Board of Elections says they will start mailing out VBM ballots on February 5th. So a lot of the vote may be cast by 3/17 and any big ad buys after 2/5 may not matter all that much.
Stratton has been a complete non-entity so it will be interesting to see how she pitches herself in her spots. Kelly is getting a lot of attention for her "impeach Noem" effort, but I still think it's going to be Raja.
I get that. I've met her and feel she's really smart and stands for the right things. I don't really get why she ran for the Senate since she would probably have a subcommittee chair if she'd stayed in the House.
She's on Energy and Commerce, an "A" committee. She could in theory get a subcommittee chair, but probably not for 2-3 terms at least looking at who's ahead of her. And she's turning 70 this year.
I think Stratton should take credit for Pritzker's policies and popularity and the Impeach Noem effort will die down. I don't understand why Kelly is running, she's 70 and not really well known.
I believe the favorite is Raja but his numbers haven't budged despite his millions in spending. His internal pollsters still show him at 40 while independent pollsters have him at 30 since months with the vast majority undecided unlike in Texas, Michigan or Maine polling where the undecideds are arguably less. I don't think he's a particularly strong candidate.
40% doesn't really win a primary. We saw this with David Trone leading with similar figures for months but ultimately Alsobrooks' endorsements and last minute disciplined spending pulled her through.
I doubt getting Underwood not to run is the extent of Pritzker's help for Stratton. He will definitely help more, but at this point she would need to gain 3-4 points against Krishnamoorthi a week, just to pull even by March.
Raja has been spending millions and can't crack 40% (and more frequently he's in the high 20s and mid 30s). I wouldn't be surprised if his support is soft and can be swung to Stratton
Yes it does, unless you're in a runoff state like TX or GA. 40% in a field of 3+ serious people is generally going to be a comfortable win. I'm thinking of Tony Evers' win in the 2018 Dem primary in Wisconsin. That example alone makes it all the more baffling why Josh Kaul isn't running for governor this year. He could've easily won that primary with about 40% of the vote with so many other people splitting the Milwaukee and Madison-area primary votes. He was the only one from outside those areas who had run his own statewide races. He would've probably cleaned up the rural and small town vote and done well enough in Milwaukee and Dane to coast. Now we're stuck with a group of B-list candidates. We'll probably win that race anyhow due to the lean of the year and because the Republican field is even worse. But kind of disappointing nonetheless.
I'm not following the Illinois primary that closely because I don't really care about primary races in safe states, but the same phenomenon seems to apply. It's hard to see Raja losing if he's at 40% in a 3-way race.
Not sure how true this is but from what I have heard, there's a chilly relationship between Kelly and Pritzker, possibly stemming from or related to Kelly being unseated as chair of the state Democratic party by a Pritzker ally. While stipulating that this is idle speculation, I wonder if Kelly is in the primary to spike Stratton in favor of Raja.
Sometimes the spite is not in the winning, but in keeping someone else from doing so, which might be what's happening here. Still don't get giving up the seniority and subcommittee chair.
Yep, she's running bc 1) it's her last chance but also 2) bc she hates Pritzker for (rightfully) kicking her out of being state party chair that she functionally couldn't be, and would rather split the vote to tacitly support her asshole colleague.
there are lots of undecideds in every poll the of IL-Sen primary - like, between a third and a half of all sampled voters - so i'm defaulting to the 'anything can happen' position here
i will note in 2024 i was quite sure Angela Alsobrooks would beat David Trone for MD-Sen she was being massively outspent on TV, she didn't lead any polls until the week before the election... and then she won. the race seems superficially similar to me.
Question for posters here: how might Kansas’ governor race go? Is this a sure fire R flip, or do we have a shot? And who might the nominees be for the Dems and GOP?
It's not a sure R flip. All the republican candidates have been tripping over themselves to prove to trump how much they love him by supporting gerrymandering, and I'm not sure that will play well. Jeff Cloyer is probably the favorite right now, but that could change with a trump endorsement. The dem primary poll in the digest today is interesting, I would have thought that Ethan Corson is the favorite because he has Gov Kelly's endorsement, but Cindy Holscher leads by a lot. The poll was sponsored by the Holscher though.
Kansas politics can be parochial, republicans would have to split Johnson county to make a real gerrymander and Johnson has never been split. I can see that making some conservatives in the county annoyed.
I think it's probably Likely R, but I think the margin will be a lot closer than people are anticipating due to the lean of the year and Corson being a decent candidate in his own right. Our best shot at a statewide race is probably AG with Kobach's many issues. Maybe Senate would follow that if Kelly gets in. So I'd rank the races in this order for our chances of winning: AG > Senate (with Kelly) > Governor
Maybe. I think in terms of margin, it’s probably going to end up in the single digits. Wouldn’t be surprised by us only losing by 5-9 points or so, which would be respectable. But it’s hard for me to see us getting that last 5 or so points without a really bad opponent or a popular incumbent. I’m optimistic on the AG race, though. I think I’d rate that one as tossup or even Lean D if Mann is well-funded this year. He would have won in 2022 had outside Dem groups taken his race seriously. Kelly would make the senate race a tossup or Lean R. Maybe Tilt R to split the difference. You can make good arguments for either.
Problem with running in this kind of state is these voters tend to want the office to return to their party after it being in the hands of the minority opposition. I wouldn't be surprised if the dem got into the mid 40's though thanks to Johnson county.
CA-26: Jacqui Irwin, running to succeed Julia Brownley w/ Brownley's endorsement, called me last night. We are holding what's called a "pre endorsement caucus" Saturday and I was likely at the bottom of her list. She's represented me for 11 years and it's been mostly frustrating to call her office, arrange in-district meetings with her, email her directly, etc., and then get ignored. She ended up apologizing to me a lot.
She is a business friendly moderate pragmatist. Among other weird claims, she said she'd be more progressive in Congress just because she's a Californian (the Overton window would be so far to the right that she'd be a progressive??? it didn't make sense to me either). She put out a statement on Renee Good that was really mealy mouthed.
The west county progressive candidate is Chris Espinosa, who has a path to victory with west county voters, Latinos, and progressives. This district was hit hard by ICE raids and "abolish ICE" may play well here.
her major accomplishment has been creation of a school of engineering at our local Cal State college. This year's legislative accomplishments include something regarding certified public accountant regulation. She has a D from the progressive Courage California voter guide. Takes oil money. etc.
If enough TX voters are fed up with him and angry enough to vote, a big campaign fund won't save him. There's been candidates and incumbents across the country who had big bank accounts that couldn't stop them losing re-election.
Exactly, Gina Hinojosa is 8 points behind him despite having 1/4th of his name recognition. This year is really big for the possibility of Blexas and the Soros' family are expected to spend big.
I mean, if both Abbott AND the GOP TX Senate candidate go down in November? I'm gonna rub that in my MAGA brother's face, along with Cooper winning his seat.
If this means a moderate Democrat gets elected as Governor of TX, so be it! Bloomberg should be persuaded to give all in to the TX-GOV race, just like he did for House Democrats in the 2018 midterms.
Donate the difference for the general election nominee or at least get the ball rolling so that whoever emerges as the TX-GOV nominee will come out ready to roll fundraising wise. I’m talking double digit millions in donations.
Since we’re talking fundraising as opposed to where Abbott and other Democratic challengers stand in poll matchups, that’s the best thing we can do for now.
Of course, it shouldn’t just be Bloomberg. But Democrats shouldn’t feel like they should be distant from wealthy donors in this case with the TX-GOV race. Other races that’s different but Democrats have been trying to win the gubernatorial race for more than 30 years.
But Democrats still should at least make an effort to tap into the wealthy donor base if it means getting leverage over Governor Abbott in the general election from a fundraising standpoint.
Scott Walker was able to finally be unseated after serving two terms as Governor of Wisconsin. Why can't Democrats do the same here if they have access to the right donors?
I know this was a point of contention in your last thread - I appreciate your blog and I don't mean this negatively but I think we would appreciate if you added in a comment about candidates down the ballot. That is the purpose of these threads. You can tie in self promotion to being on topic.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but your only posts here have been promotional, right?
Michael has been a regular commenter on this blog since before it existed in its current form. He was on the Daily Kos Elections subsite and even goes back to the SSP (Swing State Project). Don't be dismissive of someone who has been here for many years. I have been reading his commentary for fifteen years or so. He is an old friend that I have never met in person.
That link is from over a year ago
Yes, I somehow landed up on Trump's call with Alito a year ago on the Politico "live" page.
https://www.tallahassee.com/story/news/local/2026/01/16/whos-running-for-congress-after-neal-dunn-steps-aside/88197594007/
FL-2: State Rep. Jason Shoaf will not run, but surprisingly, former Reps. Gwen Graham *and* Al Lawson are considering, despite Lawson previously declining.
It is quite similar to the old FL02 Graham represented up to 2016. Even expanded a little bit, since the rural panhandle is shrinking.
Doubt Graham can make it competitive these days. Lawson might be an even longer shot.
Lawson is more conservative than Graham?
Graham says "there is a lot to consider" about running for Dunn's seat. Sounds like she's leaning towards running. https://x.com/GwenGraham/status/2012281354411467057
Brutal numbers honestly. Were this anyone else, the Press would already have the Midterm Massacre writeups in their drafts tab. (Instead, we get the "maybe he'll cancel elections" bullcrap.)
Latest CNN poll:
"-58% call Trump's first year a failure
-55% say that Trump’s policies have worsened economic conditions, 32% saying they’ve made an improvement.
-64% say he hasn’t gone far enough in trying to reduce the price of everyday goods
-36% say he has right priorities"
https://x.com/IsaacDovere/status/2012137947173372232
Meanwhile he's threatening to invade Minnesota, run Venezuela and is about to start a bombing campaign in Iran. This midterm will be a total massacre.
I'm praying it will be 2010 in reverse for them. And hopefully some shock R-to-D Senate flips.
I think some shockers are possible. Kansas, Montana, and South Carolina come to mind.
SC is definitely possible. KS and MT are heavily contingent on good candidates challenging the R incumbents.
been giving $$ to Dr.Andrews for over 6 months (SC Sen)
We don’t have a candidate in Montana or Kansas right now unfortunately.
None at all?
None that have a chance. In Montana our top candidate appears to be a former 1-term state rep who left office a decade ago, in Kansas it's a former USDA official, both appear to be extremely weak.
this article literally mentions an independent-but-liberal aligned candidate for Montana
Unless if we can get the Democratic candidates who have no shot to drop out, an independent liberal isn't winning in Montana, just like how Dan Osborn would have no shot if there was a Democratic nominee.
It's unclear if Trump actually will start the bombing campaign in Iran. I read that Netanyahu, of all people, is trying to get Trump to hold off.
He wants to postpone it until carriers, defense systems and other assets arrive.
What to watch for is if protests erupt again after the traditional 40 day mourning period. That was a feature of 1979
Which was ironic since the Shah's SAVAK (brutal secret police) didn't burn them, the Cinema Rex fire and massacre was carried out by Khomeini's followers and then mosques spread misinformation.
The Gulf States, too
Amazing.
This is one of those rare times that I agree with Netanyahu.
you forgot Greenland!
-13.2 on RCP is the lowest he’s been this term.
The latest Emerson poll posted yesterday in the comments and today in the digest gives me hope for what I’d call the perfect layup in Texas. That doesn’t mean success is assured as not all layups get sunk, but if this happens, you couldn’t ask for a better write up for Democrats.
We could know the nominee in March and Republicans could be fighting a 3 way primary until the end of May. With only 2 real candidates and not 3, it’s so much easier for Talarico to hopefully lock up the nomination and spend the next 3 months after barnstorming alternate media, state media and the state itself while raising gobs of cash with the race entirely to himself while the GOP bludgeons each other to a bloody end for whoever emerges victorious.
Couple that with a Trump midterm and mass Hispanic/Latino revolt from the GOP over the consequences Trump promised to do if elected that they refused to believe, it’s not that hard to see a potentially purple Texas come 2027. A lot still needs to go right, I still think it’s Lean R even with Talarico, there’s a ton of work that needs to be done, but it’s by no means impossible either.
That Talarico and Crockett were tied with Paxton in a Trump +14 sample is huge grounds for optimism. Emerson made that same polling mistake in Virginia and New Jersey and was off nearly double digits. There's a solid shot Talarico might even be narrowly favored against Paxton. Hope he wins the primary in March, stockpiles cash as the GOP bloodies itself over the next 2.5 months, and shifts to the middle on some cultural issues. Frame himself positively before the NRSC does. I hope Dems take a leaf out of the McCaskill playbook and attack Paxton as "too conservative for Texas" to get him over the edge in the primary.
I love Talarico!
I heard a take yesterday from Inside Elections that if Paxton leads Cornyn by a solid amount in the first primary before the runoff, Cornyn might be pressured to drop out to avoid a longer, more expensive battle. Not sure if Cornyn would agree, but that could end the runoff early.
That’s true, candidate/s can always drop out, but Hunt’s voters would theoretically be up for grabs completely to both Cornyn and Paxton since he regularly attacks both candidates and I think it’s probably more likely he either endorses nobody or endorses Cornyn than it is him backing Paxton.
So no matter what result in the first round, unless Paxton gets like 45-49%, there’s a much clearer path for Cornyn and his GOP leadership supporters to see a path for him winning. Republicans have already spent $50m because they’re terrified of Paxton winning the nomination. If they’re willing to spend that much to prevent Paxton now, my guess is they’re willing to risk going to a runoff even if Paxton comes first in the primary.
there's no way Cornyn will drop out of a runoff with Paxton. He might drop out to give Hunt a chance to beat Paxton in a head-to-head.
I think Hunt and Cornyn hate each other. They constantly aim their fire on each other online. Wouldn't be surprised if Hunt endorsed Paxton in the runoff. No way Cornyn is dropping out for Hunt though if he's guaranteed a slot in the runoff himself. Too much bad blood.
It would be particularly important to pay attention to how TX independent and swing voters sentiments evolve heading towards November. If they are making a big swing to the left, that’s a good sign.
OH-09: I don't know if being Kristi Noem's right-hand aide is a plus even in a Trump +11 seat. Kaptur should just run South Park-like ads of Noem and Sheahan shooting peoples' dogs.
Yeah, I think Meahan will probably lose the primary. Kaptur will likely cream her in the general considering the midterm effect.
Au contraire. She's exactly the kind of nutjob Trump likes. She's a young woman who is very edgy. I bet he endorses her. Kaptur should just go full savage mode and run remakes of the South Park clips of Noem and ICE shooting dogs if she wins the R primary. We need to be cutthroat.
She should run ads during the run-up to the primary saying that Sheahan is too conservative for the district.
Or, better yet, too MAGA for the district...
My guess is it turns the Republican Party into a bloodbath. Great news for Kaptur
This will keep ICE, the murders of Americans and puppies, front and center during the midterm elections. That’s a winner for us – a loser for them!
Pillen is such a POS.
New Mexico has some important races coming up. Any comments on their candidates?
“In less than one year at ICE, I’ve stopped more illegal immigration than Marcy Kaptur has in her 43 years in Washington,” Sheahan proclaims in her launch video.
Well DUH! That was Sheahan’s only job, and not Kaptur's. Stopping one illegal immigrant would be more than Kaptur had any responsibility for. Sheahan might as well have said “I have kissed Kristi Noem’s butt more in one year than Jane Goodall did in her entire life."
“Ohio neighborhoods are safer thanks to President Trump and ICE.”
That, of course is a brazen lie. Nothing ICE is doing is making any neighborhoods safer. They are not prioritizing deportation of criminals, but terrorizing neighborhoods in an attempt to meet President Stephen Miller’s insane quota of deportations.
To Sheahan:
No one cares about what you are saying.
who is sheahan? /s
There's only one Sheahan and that's Cindy Sheehan, who was great in her anti-Iraq War activism after Bush Jr won re-election even while her political agenda after this was all over the place.
But either way, I prefer Cindy Sheehan over Madison Sheahan any day.
🇺🇸 NATIONAL POLL by CNN/SSRS
Pres. Trump
Approve: 39% [+2]
Disapprove: 61% [-2]
——
Trump's net approval on key issues
🟤 Venezuela: -16
🟤 Immigration: -16 (was +3 in Mar)
🟤 Economy: -21
🟤 Foreign affairs: -21
🟤 Tariffs: -25 (new low)
🟤 Healthcare: -27 (new low)
——
1/9-12 | 1,009 A
https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/2012121928388034944
There was no bump from the action in Venezuela. Probably because the Chavista government still rules, they'll just pay tribute for loosened economic sanctions.
There was no bump because a lot of people, even on the right, don’t support neo-con regime change policy.
Which didn't even happen. The Chavistas still rule. They just learned the power of bribery and flattery, like Xi.
Or that fraud Machado.
She really, really wanted to be installed. Now she's regifting her medal as if that changes anything. That's a pittance that makes her look pathetic. I'm sure if Trump demanded she go to the WH kitchen and make him a sandwich, she would have done so.
I think it's even simpler than that. Venezuela probably doesn't even crack most normal people's list of top 20 issues that they care about.
And for Venezuelan refugees, I'll bet the euphoria of Maduro being removed faded when the entire rest of the government stood firm rather than going down like a house of cards.
Right. I do think Trump successfully tapped into a growing isolationist strain among the electorate that's been growing since the Bush years (which makes this all ironic). There is little appetite among the U.S. populace to get involved in foreign entanglements that aren't due to a direct threat/attack on the U.S.
I’m sure Trump was thinking the capture of President Maduro was just like the US troops were able to find Saddam Hussein back in 2003 after the Iraq War was invaded.
Trump’s certainly trying so hard to impulsively boost up his ratings instead of actually trying to do it the smart way. Of course, we already knew this from his first term as POTUS.
Well Trump certainly doesn’t seem to be catching a break as his polling numbers are dropping in the double digits.
The ACA subsidies issue does appear to be the leading issue that could swing voters to the left, as we obviously knew it would be. -27 in Trump’s approval rating means the GOP really has no ability to spin this, even if they in Congress have a “plan” for healthcare.
"but, but look at the stock market"....lmfao
More like flattery towards Trump if you ask me!
On the other hand, the high numbers of the stock market really spiked up in Trump's first term and didn't exactly go substantially down, even during the COVID-19 pandemic and the minor crashes due to the regional bank failures.
Correction to my comment of several days ago as to how Indiana Democrats choose the delegates who will determine the candidate for Secretary of State:
Each county sends the four members of the steering committee (chair, vice-chair, secretary, treasurer) and the ten delegate who are elected on the primary ballot. Here is a link to the official policy:
https://indems.org/2026-state-convention-central/
I had heard the incorrect information at a local party meeting. My husband attended also, and he confirmed that he heard the same incorrect information. A general email from the group yesterday corrected it.
For IN-SOS, am I correct in assuming that Bayh's chances hinge in large part on whether Republicans are stupid enough to run Morales again?
Running "against" a candidate, even one as bad as Morales, is less proactive than running for what you can do for the people of the state. Given the cuts in basic services by the current legislature, while continuing to build up a surplus, not to mention giving our money to private schools, there may be a backlash against the Republicans. The important thing is to have a strong candidate who can take advantage of it.
Our current Attorney General, Todd Rokita, has had major ethics problems. and Republicans still ran him. He won about 60% of the vote in the 2024 election. BTW, the ethics issue has not gone away. Rokita is auditioning for a role in the Trump administration, as he recently said horrible things about the Rene Good shooting in MN, which is not part of his job description.
Rokita did make it in after they dumped Curtis Hill, but there was a criminal aspect on top of the ethics violations.
IL-SEN: A little clarification on the clock. While it's true the primary is two months (and one day) away, the Chicago Board of Elections says they will start mailing out VBM ballots on February 5th. So a lot of the vote may be cast by 3/17 and any big ad buys after 2/5 may not matter all that much.
Stratton has been a complete non-entity so it will be interesting to see how she pitches herself in her spots. Kelly is getting a lot of attention for her "impeach Noem" effort, but I still think it's going to be Raja.
I really like Robin Kelly. I wish she had a better chance.
I get that. I've met her and feel she's really smart and stands for the right things. I don't really get why she ran for the Senate since she would probably have a subcommittee chair if she'd stayed in the House.
Isn't she a backbencher?
She's on Energy and Commerce, an "A" committee. She could in theory get a subcommittee chair, but probably not for 2-3 terms at least looking at who's ahead of her. And she's turning 70 this year.
No, she's in leadership as a Steering and Policy Committee co-chair.
I think Stratton should take credit for Pritzker's policies and popularity and the Impeach Noem effort will die down. I don't understand why Kelly is running, she's 70 and not really well known.
I believe the favorite is Raja but his numbers haven't budged despite his millions in spending. His internal pollsters still show him at 40 while independent pollsters have him at 30 since months with the vast majority undecided unlike in Texas, Michigan or Maine polling where the undecideds are arguably less. I don't think he's a particularly strong candidate.
Times a tickin' if you're not raja, 40% wins a primary in Illinois. Of course people like Pritzker but I doubt people really care who he endorses.
40% doesn't really win a primary. We saw this with David Trone leading with similar figures for months but ultimately Alsobrooks' endorsements and last minute disciplined spending pulled her through.
I doubt getting Underwood not to run is the extent of Pritzker's help for Stratton. He will definitely help more, but at this point she would need to gain 3-4 points against Krishnamoorthi a week, just to pull even by March.
Can ad spending make up 25-30 points in 8 weeks?
Raja has been spending millions and can't crack 40% (and more frequently he's in the high 20s and mid 30s). I wouldn't be surprised if his support is soft and can be swung to Stratton
mind you, "Undecided" has won every recent IL-Sen poll.
Raja's not truly in the lead here
Yes it does, unless you're in a runoff state like TX or GA. 40% in a field of 3+ serious people is generally going to be a comfortable win. I'm thinking of Tony Evers' win in the 2018 Dem primary in Wisconsin. That example alone makes it all the more baffling why Josh Kaul isn't running for governor this year. He could've easily won that primary with about 40% of the vote with so many other people splitting the Milwaukee and Madison-area primary votes. He was the only one from outside those areas who had run his own statewide races. He would've probably cleaned up the rural and small town vote and done well enough in Milwaukee and Dane to coast. Now we're stuck with a group of B-list candidates. We'll probably win that race anyhow due to the lean of the year and because the Republican field is even worse. But kind of disappointing nonetheless.
I'm not following the Illinois primary that closely because I don't really care about primary races in safe states, but the same phenomenon seems to apply. It's hard to see Raja losing if he's at 40% in a 3-way race.
Not sure how true this is but from what I have heard, there's a chilly relationship between Kelly and Pritzker, possibly stemming from or related to Kelly being unseated as chair of the state Democratic party by a Pritzker ally. While stipulating that this is idle speculation, I wonder if Kelly is in the primary to spike Stratton in favor of Raja.
Probably more like she's running to spite Pritzker by winning the primary, but it doesn't look like that's going to happen.
Sometimes the spite is not in the winning, but in keeping someone else from doing so, which might be what's happening here. Still don't get giving up the seniority and subcommittee chair.
Yep, she's running bc 1) it's her last chance but also 2) bc she hates Pritzker for (rightfully) kicking her out of being state party chair that she functionally couldn't be, and would rather split the vote to tacitly support her asshole colleague.
Whoa! Don't think Raja deserves that, quite frankly. What has Stratton ever done, ever, that makes you think she'd be an effective Senator?
there are lots of undecideds in every poll the of IL-Sen primary - like, between a third and a half of all sampled voters - so i'm defaulting to the 'anything can happen' position here
i will note in 2024 i was quite sure Angela Alsobrooks would beat David Trone for MD-Sen she was being massively outspent on TV, she didn't lead any polls until the week before the election... and then she won. the race seems superficially similar to me.
Question for posters here: how might Kansas’ governor race go? Is this a sure fire R flip, or do we have a shot? And who might the nominees be for the Dems and GOP?
It's not a sure R flip. All the republican candidates have been tripping over themselves to prove to trump how much they love him by supporting gerrymandering, and I'm not sure that will play well. Jeff Cloyer is probably the favorite right now, but that could change with a trump endorsement. The dem primary poll in the digest today is interesting, I would have thought that Ethan Corson is the favorite because he has Gov Kelly's endorsement, but Cindy Holscher leads by a lot. The poll was sponsored by the Holscher though.
I'd say support for gerrymandering will have roughly zero impact on anyone's vote for Governor.
Kansas politics can be parochial, republicans would have to split Johnson county to make a real gerrymander and Johnson has never been split. I can see that making some conservatives in the county annoyed.
and you'd probably be mistaken. these things have an opportunity cost, and the state is still recovering from Sam Brownback.
I think it's probably Likely R, but I think the margin will be a lot closer than people are anticipating due to the lean of the year and Corson being a decent candidate in his own right. Our best shot at a statewide race is probably AG with Kobach's many issues. Maybe Senate would follow that if Kelly gets in. So I'd rank the races in this order for our chances of winning: AG > Senate (with Kelly) > Governor
I'm fairly pessimistic on this race, but Likely R feels a bit too extreme. I'd put it at Lean R, pending who the actual candidates are.
Maybe. I think in terms of margin, it’s probably going to end up in the single digits. Wouldn’t be surprised by us only losing by 5-9 points or so, which would be respectable. But it’s hard for me to see us getting that last 5 or so points without a really bad opponent or a popular incumbent. I’m optimistic on the AG race, though. I think I’d rate that one as tossup or even Lean D if Mann is well-funded this year. He would have won in 2022 had outside Dem groups taken his race seriously. Kelly would make the senate race a tossup or Lean R. Maybe Tilt R to split the difference. You can make good arguments for either.
Problem with running in this kind of state is these voters tend to want the office to return to their party after it being in the hands of the minority opposition. I wouldn't be surprised if the dem got into the mid 40's though thanks to Johnson county.
CA-26: Jacqui Irwin, running to succeed Julia Brownley w/ Brownley's endorsement, called me last night. We are holding what's called a "pre endorsement caucus" Saturday and I was likely at the bottom of her list. She's represented me for 11 years and it's been mostly frustrating to call her office, arrange in-district meetings with her, email her directly, etc., and then get ignored. She ended up apologizing to me a lot.
She is a business friendly moderate pragmatist. Among other weird claims, she said she'd be more progressive in Congress just because she's a Californian (the Overton window would be so far to the right that she'd be a progressive??? it didn't make sense to me either). She put out a statement on Renee Good that was really mealy mouthed.
The west county progressive candidate is Chris Espinosa, who has a path to victory with west county voters, Latinos, and progressives. This district was hit hard by ICE raids and "abolish ICE" may play well here.
Tbh a lot of California legislature moderates or pragmatists would be national progressives.
What does business friendly mean here?
her major accomplishment has been creation of a school of engineering at our local Cal State college. This year's legislative accomplishments include something regarding certified public accountant regulation. She has a D from the progressive Courage California voter guide. Takes oil money. etc.
No good could possibly come from the fact that Greg Abbott now has more than $100 million in cash on hand.
If enough TX voters are fed up with him and angry enough to vote, a big campaign fund won't save him. There's been candidates and incumbents across the country who had big bank accounts that couldn't stop them losing re-election.
Exactly, Gina Hinojosa is 8 points behind him despite having 1/4th of his name recognition. This year is really big for the possibility of Blexas and the Soros' family are expected to spend big.
I mean, if both Abbott AND the GOP TX Senate candidate go down in November? I'm gonna rub that in my MAGA brother's face, along with Cooper winning his seat.
Get Bloomberg in to make up the difference.
If this means a moderate Democrat gets elected as Governor of TX, so be it! Bloomberg should be persuaded to give all in to the TX-GOV race, just like he did for House Democrats in the 2018 midterms.
How?
Donate the difference for the general election nominee or at least get the ball rolling so that whoever emerges as the TX-GOV nominee will come out ready to roll fundraising wise. I’m talking double digit millions in donations.
Since we’re talking fundraising as opposed to where Abbott and other Democratic challengers stand in poll matchups, that’s the best thing we can do for now.
Of course, it shouldn’t just be Bloomberg. But Democrats shouldn’t feel like they should be distant from wealthy donors in this case with the TX-GOV race. Other races that’s different but Democrats have been trying to win the gubernatorial race for more than 30 years.
Hinojosa and Talarico are progressives who hold some views on the forbidden issue. Bloomberg ain't giving anything.
Ok so Bloomberg's a no then.
But Democrats still should at least make an effort to tap into the wealthy donor base if it means getting leverage over Governor Abbott in the general election from a fundraising standpoint.
Scott Walker was able to finally be unseated after serving two terms as Governor of Wisconsin. Why can't Democrats do the same here if they have access to the right donors?