The Republican Party, which has been taken over by MAGA, is suddenly discovering that it is running reprehensible MAGA candidates that fail to appeal to voters – Mark Robinson, Kari Lake, JD Vance... And the most toxic of them all: Agent Orange.
Who woulda thunk?
Simon Rosenberg of the Hopium Chronicles made an astute early call to bet on …
The Republican Party, which has been taken over by MAGA, is suddenly discovering that it is running reprehensible MAGA candidates that fail to appeal to voters – Mark Robinson, Kari Lake, JD Vance... And the most toxic of them all: Agent Orange.
Who woulda thunk?
Simon Rosenberg of the Hopium Chronicles made an astute early call to bet on North Carolina and Arizona, precisely because of their weak flagship Republican candidates: Robinson and Lake. In other words, Simon believed this weakness gave Biden (now Harris) a golden opportunity to "Expand the Map".
In Arizona, the Hopium community has invested at least $ 360,000 in the Senate Campaign of Ruben Gallego, who will be a significant upgrade from Kyrsten Sinema. Gallego, as we all know, is running against the photogenic but utterly vile Kari Lake. Gallego is leading by high single digits.
In North Carolina, the Hopium community made early contributions of $ 480,000 to the state Democratic Party, led by its amazing Chair, Anderson Clayton. (age 26!) We’re now seeing how the poisonous Robinson, and the hard work of Clayton & Co, and of course the Harris-Walz Campaign, are threatening Republican losses up and down the ballot in the Tar Heel State.
Polls are close, but if Kamala Harris wins North Carolina’s 16 Electoral Votes, it’s very difficult to see a Trumpian path to 270. Quite the contrary: Harris will be well-poised to win the 2024 Presidential Election well outside the MoS ("Margin of Steal").
It is also the only path he has that involves just three states and he's behind in polls in two of them. Without any one of those three, Trump would need to win four of the remaining five swing states not named Nevada to win.
UNH had a poll with Harris up 5 in ME-02 about a month ago. The more recent one from Pan Atlantic Research showing Trump up 7 is more in line with 2020 but still it's probably not too expensive to run some ads and get some organizers out from New England.
Crazy candidates have been ruining GOP chances since at least 2012 with the second Tea Party wave. Leadership kind of understands this but rarely does anything about it, but in reality, their primary voters are so crazy & bloodthirsty that they constantly select the loudest & craziest candidate that gets the slightest bit of traction. Leadership also knows that they can't do anything about it because of the fear of their mouthpieces in the media turning on them & calling for a primary challenge. They're damned if they do, damned if they don't.
Only one opinion but yes I believe that McConnell would have eliminated Trump if possible but after realizing he didn't have the necessary votes, he backed away
I def think the chief reason he backed away was because of his own personal reasons that aren't going to be clear until the tell all book. I believe if he had pushed for impeachment at least the establishment wing of the party would joined his vote...
The customer (in this case, Republican voters) is always right.
It's important to note what that phrase really means. If you want to buy an ill-fitting, out-of-fashion suit made of poor-quality, mismatched fabrics that would literally see you laughed out of the room, it's not the salesman's job to convince you otherwise.
"…the story about Robinson will divert attention from the lies about Haitian immigrants eating pets, which diverted attention from Trump’s abysmal debate performance, which diverted attention from Trump’s filming a campaign ad at Arlington National Cemetery."
– Heather Cox Richardson ("Letters from an American")
I dunno if I can even post this here, but Trump has gone full fascist now apparently blaming Jews if he loses. As if the blatant lies about Haitians eating pets wasn't bad enough. The bar doesn't seem to stop lowering for Trump and his ilk.
The Republican Party, which has been taken over by MAGA, is suddenly discovering that it is running reprehensible MAGA candidates that fail to appeal to voters – Mark Robinson, Kari Lake, JD Vance... And the most toxic of them all: Agent Orange.
Who woulda thunk?
Simon Rosenberg of the Hopium Chronicles made an astute early call to bet on North Carolina and Arizona, precisely because of their weak flagship Republican candidates: Robinson and Lake. In other words, Simon believed this weakness gave Biden (now Harris) a golden opportunity to "Expand the Map".
In Arizona, the Hopium community has invested at least $ 360,000 in the Senate Campaign of Ruben Gallego, who will be a significant upgrade from Kyrsten Sinema. Gallego, as we all know, is running against the photogenic but utterly vile Kari Lake. Gallego is leading by high single digits.
In North Carolina, the Hopium community made early contributions of $ 480,000 to the state Democratic Party, led by its amazing Chair, Anderson Clayton. (age 26!) We’re now seeing how the poisonous Robinson, and the hard work of Clayton & Co, and of course the Harris-Walz Campaign, are threatening Republican losses up and down the ballot in the Tar Heel State.
Polls are close, but if Kamala Harris wins North Carolina’s 16 Electoral Votes, it’s very difficult to see a Trumpian path to 270. Quite the contrary: Harris will be well-poised to win the 2024 Presidential Election well outside the MoS ("Margin of Steal").
Good post.
NC has 16 EV's this round, I believe.
Trump's best path to 270 is his 219 base + 16 NC + 16 GA + 19 PA. 219 + 51 = 270.
Corrected. Thanks!
In every situation; Pennsylvania remains key(literally the 'keystone' state)
It is also the only path he has that involves just three states and he's behind in polls in two of them. Without any one of those three, Trump would need to win four of the remaining five swing states not named Nevada to win.
We could take it away with Maine under that scenario, the same way we need Nebraska's one vote with the "blue wall."
UNH had a poll with Harris up 5 in ME-02 about a month ago. The more recent one from Pan Atlantic Research showing Trump up 7 is more in line with 2020 but still it's probably not too expensive to run some ads and get some organizers out from New England.
Crazy candidates have been ruining GOP chances since at least 2012 with the second Tea Party wave. Leadership kind of understands this but rarely does anything about it, but in reality, their primary voters are so crazy & bloodthirsty that they constantly select the loudest & craziest candidate that gets the slightest bit of traction. Leadership also knows that they can't do anything about it because of the fear of their mouthpieces in the media turning on them & calling for a primary challenge. They're damned if they do, damned if they don't.
And now Ken Buck is one of the more reasonable Republicans!
Remember when Paul Ryan was considered a very-extreme Republican? Sigh!
It's crazy ain't it; Liz Cheney and Paul Ryan are our allies against Trump (dogs and cats living together; mass hysteria!!)
Yup, and Dick Cheney – never mind that he ought to be tried at The Hague.
To his credit; McConnell has long been pushing back against this, but he's found himself helpless against Trump's hold on the crazies
Much of this might have been avoided had Mitch McConnell the courage to strongly push for conviction in Trump’s second impeachment case.
Agreed; I just believe he knew he didn't have the necessary votes
Interesting. So you think that's why he caved on Trump, not because he realized it would cause all the Republican incumbents to lose primaries?
Only one opinion but yes I believe that McConnell would have eliminated Trump if possible but after realizing he didn't have the necessary votes, he backed away
I def think the chief reason he backed away was because of his own personal reasons that aren't going to be clear until the tell all book. I believe if he had pushed for impeachment at least the establishment wing of the party would joined his vote...
It's no wonder that McConnell with the health issues he's dealt with is retiring.
I would go back to 2010 when Harry Reid was able to beat Sharron Angle.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_United_States_Senate_election_in_Nevada
The customer (in this case, Republican voters) is always right.
It's important to note what that phrase really means. If you want to buy an ill-fitting, out-of-fashion suit made of poor-quality, mismatched fabrics that would literally see you laughed out of the room, it's not the salesman's job to convince you otherwise.
"…the story about Robinson will divert attention from the lies about Haitian immigrants eating pets, which diverted attention from Trump’s abysmal debate performance, which diverted attention from Trump’s filming a campaign ad at Arlington National Cemetery."
– Heather Cox Richardson ("Letters from an American")
https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/september-19-2024
(HCR’s entire letter is well worth reading, as always.)
I dunno if I can even post this here, but Trump has gone full fascist now apparently blaming Jews if he loses. As if the blatant lies about Haitians eating pets wasn't bad enough. The bar doesn't seem to stop lowering for Trump and his ilk.
With the GOP, it isn't even low bar to have nominees for political office who aren't doing anything to really show they deserve serving in office.