Morning Digest: Targeted by another gerrymander, Marcy Kaptur says she won't back down
One potential GOP opponent just saw his home added to her district
Leading Off
OH Redistricting, OH-09
Following approval of a new map on Friday that further targets her district, Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur struck a defiant stance—and threw shade at a likely opponent who stands to benefit from the redrawn borders.
Ohio’s bipartisan redistricting commission unanimously voted to approve the revamped boundaries that make two competitive Democratic-held seats redder—including Kaptur’s. As a result, under the convoluted rules Buckeye State voters approved in 2018, this map is now law through the 2030 elections.
Donald Trump would have carried the new-look version of Kaptur’s 9th Congressional District by a 55-44 spread, an increase from his 53-46 showing under the existing lines. Rep. Greg Landsman, likewise, saw his Cincinnati-based 1st District morph from a solidly Democratic constituency Kamala Harris won 53-46 into a purple seat Trump would have taken 51-48. (Results for the new districts are from Dave’s Redistricting App and the Redistricting Data Hub.)
But the 79-year-old Kaptur, who would have faced a competitive race no matter what, responded to the new lines by announcing that she would continue to campaign for a 23rd term.
“While Democrats on the Redistricting Commission proposed a fair map at the outset of this process, in one party rule Columbus, self-interested politicians cut side deals to pave their own future,” she said in a statement. “I remain committed to serving Northwest Ohio and will seek re-election with a renewed focus on accountability and protecting the voice of the people.”
While Kaptur, who is the longest-serving woman in congressional history, didn’t mention any of her current or potential Republican opponents by name, Signal Ohio’s Andrew Tobias interpreted her comments as “some thinly veiled shots” at state Senate President Rob McColley.
Tobias, who previously reported that McColley was interested in opposing Kaptur, wrote Friday that he’s now “expected to launch a campaign for the seat soon.” McColley never confirmed his interest in a promotion before the map was approved, but observers immediately noticed that the new map happens to move his home—and a sizable further chunk of his Senate district—into the 9th District.
McColley doesn’t serve on the seven-person commission, but he appointed one of its members, and one Democratic commissioner believes he’s behind the alteration that shifted his home.
In remarks quoted by Tobias, State Senate Minority Leader Nickie Antonio told reporters that the change was “the most egregious example of self-interest that I can recall.”
But Antonio, whose support was required to pass this map, nonetheless argued it was preferable to letting the GOP-dominated legislature draw up a plan that could have been far worse for Democrats.
“This is not the congressional map that Ohioans deserve,” she said. “However, I do believe with this map we have averted a disaster.”
Many Republicans, though, are furious that they didn’t get the chance to inflict such a “disaster” on the other side, including a far-right activist who is once again threatening to make trouble for his party.
“Ohio Republicans fumbling the ball on Congressional maps,” tweeted J.R. Majewski, a QAnon ally whose disastrous 2022 campaign ended in a landslide loss against Kaptur. “Maybe they worry too much about their buddies who have been term limited? I’m over here thinking who I need to primary.”
Majewski may be more interested in running for the legislature than pursuing another congressional campaign, but other Republicans were already seeking to oust Kaptur before they knew what the new lines would look like.
The GOP field includes former state Rep. Derek Merrin, who narrowly lost to Kaptur 48.3 to 47.6 last year as Trump was carrying the current incarnation of the 9th District; state Rep. Josh Williams; and a pair of Air Force veterans, Wayne Kinsel and Alea Nadeem.
Kaptur, though, already seems to be focusing on McColley and his influence in state government.
“Let the Columbus politicians make their self-serving maps and play musical chairs,” she said. “I will fight on for the people and ask the voters for their support next year.”
Redistricting Roundup
VA Redistricting
Virginia’s Democrat-run state Senate approved a constitutional amendment in a party-line vote on Friday that would allow lawmakers to draw a new congressional map, following the same move by their counterparts in the state House earlier in the week.
In the likely event that Democrats retain control of the House in Tuesday’s elections, they’ll be able to pass their amendment a second time when lawmakers reconvene in January. (The Senate is not up.) Voters would then get the chance to weigh in at the ballot box, likely in April.
If it all comes together as Democrats hope, they’d be able to enact new districts in time for the 2026 elections that could target as many as four GOP-held seats.
Governors
FL-Gov
Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings has an “announcement rally” set for Nov. 6, which Politico anticipates he’ll use to enter the Democratic primary for governor of Florida. Demings would join David Jolly, a former Republican congressman who joined the Democrats this year, in running to lead a one-time swing state that’s lurched hard to the right in recent years.
MN-Gov
State House Speaker Lisa Demuth announced Sunday that she was entering the Republican primary to oppose Democratic Gov. Tim Walz.
Demuth, who was first elected to the Minnesota legislature in 2018, became speaker of the evenly divided chamber under a power-sharing agreement that the two parties reached in February, a position she says she’ll retain during her campaign. Demuth, who is the first Black person to lead the House, would also be the first woman or person of color to serve as governor.
She joins a GOP contest that includes former state Sen. Scott Jensen, who lost to Walz in 2022; businessman Kendall Qualls, who unsuccessfully sought the Republican nomination that year; and state Rep. Kristin Robbins.
The field could still expand further. An unnamed source informs the Minnesota Star Tribune that Chris Madel, a prominent attorney who didn’t rule out running earlier this year, is “strongly considering” running.
NY-Gov
Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik will announce her long-awaited campaign for governor of New York this month, Axios reports. The story adds that Stefanik’s launch will come “soon after” Tuesday’s mayoral election in New York City.
Stefanik, who is close to Donald Trump, would be the frontrunner in next year’s GOP primary to oppose Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul, though she’ll also be watching how one potential rival performs this week at the ballot box. Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, who hasn’t ruled out his own campaign for governor, first needs to win reelection against Democrat Seth Koslow, who is a member of the county legislature.
House
CA-03, CA-06
Lauren Babb Tomlinson, an official at Planned Parenthood’s regional affiliate, is considering running for Congress in the Sacramento area if California voters approve a new map on Tuesday, Politico reports.
Tomlinson’s deliberations come as Rep. Ami Bera, a fellow Democrat, mulls whether to seek reelection in either the revamped 3rd District or for the 6th, though he recently said he was more interested in the former. Tomlinson, Politico says, would eye whichever seat Bera doesn’t run for.
But Tomlinson is by no means the only local Democrat who might pursue a congressional bid in the likely event that Proposition 50, which Republican donors have almost completely stopped trying to defeat, passes at the ballot box.
The New York Times reported last week that Sacramento County Sheriff Jim Cooper—not to be confused with the former Democratic congressman from Tennessee—is among those “said to be mulling congressional runs in one district or another.” The sheriff does not appear to have publicly talked about ending the House’s critical lack of Jim Coopers.
OH-13
Former state Sen. Kevin Coughlin said Sunday that he was ending his bid against Democratic Rep. Emilia Sykes because the new map left him without an obvious “path to victory.”
“Having been through a tough 2024 campaign I know how this story ends and what this means in terms of fundraising and national support,” Coughlin, who was the only notable Republican challenging Sykes in Ohio’s 13th District, said in a statement. “I cannot ask our supporters to continue to invest their time and treasure into this race.”
Last year, Sykes fended off Coughlin 51-49 as Kamala Harris was narrowly carrying her constituency, which is based around Akron and Canton, by just 183 votes—a result that made the 13th the most closely divided House district in the country at the presidential level. The state’s bipartisan redistricting commission, though, unanimously approved a map Friday that extended Harris’ margin of victory to 51-48.
The new lines still give Republicans an opening in the 13th District while making reelection tougher for Democratic Reps. Marcy Kaptur and Greg Landsman (see our lead item), but Coughlin doesn’t see it as a good trade for the GOP.
“The outcome of 2026 will determine the fate of the Trump presidency. The next Congress will either impeach and investigate, or make some of the Trump agenda permanent,” he said. “A small group of people have dealt a serious setback to keeping the Republican majority in the House.”
Mayors & County Leaders
Jersey City, NJ Mayor
Former Gov. Jim McGreevey enjoys a huge fundraising advantage ahead of Tuesday’s seven-person race for mayor of Jersey City, a campaign that’s taking place two decades after McGreevey’s shock resignation. The large field, though, makes it unlikely that McGreevey—or anyone else—will earn the majority of the vote needed to avert a Dec. 2 runoff in this dark-blue community.
McGreevey is competing in the officially nonpartisan race to succeed Mayor Steve Fulop, a fellow Democrat who lost the June primary for McGreevey’s old job as governor.
McGreevey’s own tenure ended in 2004 after he famously proclaimed, “I am a gay American” at a press conference that saw him simultaneously become the nation’s first openly gay governor and announce his resignation.
McGreevey made that shocking declaration after a former homeland security aide named Golan Cipel—whom his administration had hired even though he didn’t have the requisite qualifications and had failed to secure a federal security clearance—threatened to sue him for sexual harassment. McGreevey said the two had had an affair, which Cipel denied.
The ex-governor, who was once talked about as a possible presidential candidate, says he’s hoping to run the state’s second-largest city because he believes he’ll do the best job leading Jersey City into the future. His opponents, though, aren’t done talking about his past.
“I have never had the experience of having to resign in disgrace,” former school board leader Mussab Ali said at a forum.
Hudson County Commissioner Bill O’Dea, likewise, says that voters shouldn’t give McGreevey another chance, though not because of what happened 21 years ago. O’Dea instead says that he “can’t forgive the fact that since McGreevey came back to Jersey City, it’s always been about himself.”
A third rival, City Council member James Solomon, believes McGreevey’s ties to real estate developers—including Charles Kushner, the father of Jared Kushner—should have voters looking elsewhere.
“The history of Jersey City is the history of developers buying politicians and getting exactly what they want, how they want it, and the people getting screwed over,” Solomon has argued. “McGreevey has followed the exact same status quo playbook.”
The field also includes City Council President Joyce Watterman and two underfunded candidates.
The New Jersey Monitor identifies McGreevey, O’Dea, and Solomon as the most likely candidates to advance to the runoff, though there has been no independent polling of this race.
King County, WA Executive
King County Councilmember Claudia Balducci posts a tight 37-35 advantage over Girmay Zahilay, a fellow Democrat and Council colleague, in a poll conducted almost three months after Zahilay outpaced Balducci by double digits in the first round of voting.
This survey, from Emerson College for the Northwest Progressive Institute, also shows a hefty 28% undecided, and it’s the only poll anyone has released of Tuesday’s officially nonpartisan race. The winner will become the executive of King County, which includes Seattle and many of its suburbs.
Zahilay, who has the backing of Gov. Bob Ferguson and Rep. Pramila Jayapal, led Balducci 44-30 in the August top-two primary. That result firmly established Zahilay as the frontrunner in a contest where the two leading candidates share similar views.
Either contender would make history. Zahilay, who was born to Ethiopian refugees in Sudan, would be the first immigrant to hold this post. Balducci, likewise, would be the first woman elected to run Washington’s largest county.
Poll Pile
GA-Sen (R): University of Georgia for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution: Mike Collins: 30, Buddy Carter: 20, Derek Dooley: 12.
VA-Gov: Echelon Insights (R): Abigail Spanberger (D): 55, Winsome Earle-Sears (R): 43.
VA-Gov: State Navigate: Spanberger (D): 54, Earle-Sears (R): 41 (Oct.: 55-42 Spanberger).
VA-Gov: Emerson College for The Hill: Spanberger (D): 55, Earle-Sears (R): 44 (Sept.: 52-42 Spanberger).
VA-LG: Echelon: Ghazala Hashmi (D): 49, John Reid (R): 46.
VA-LG: State Navigate: Hashmi (D): 53, Reid (R): 41 (Oct.: 53-42 Hashmi).
VA-AG: Echelon: Jason Miyares (R-inc): 49, Jay Jones (D): 46.
VA-AG: State Navigate: Jones (D): 49, Miyares (R-inc): 46 (Oct.: 50-45 Jones).
VA-AG: Emerson: Jones (D): 49, Miyares (R-inc): 47.
CA-48 (proposed): Blueprint Polling (D) for Ammar Campa-Najjar: Ammar Campa-Najjar (D): 43, Darrell Issa (R-inc): 40. (The release did not test other Democratic candidates.)
Good for Kaptur. She’s always been a fighter.
I am so rooting for a MASSIVE shellacking in Virginia tomorrow. As well as everywhere else.