Here's my question for the day. If you had to choose one of the marquee races tomorrow for your side to lose (VA-Gov, NJ-Gov, CA Prop 50, NYC Mayor, PA judicial, or ME Question 1), which one would it be?
While I agree that it would lead to blowback, I think it would be doable to overcome its strictness. I also think it would be the least consequential loss.
However, I have a gut feeling that ME Question 1 will fail.
VA-Gov and CA Prop 50 are must-wins for us due to the gerrymandering wars, and NYC Mayor is a must-win from a national narrative-setting standpoint and helping determine how the Democratic Party is going to frame itself going forward. I wouldn't want to lose any of these, but losing any of those three would be catastrophic. Some may not agree on Cuomo being catastrophic, but whoever wins this race is going to become a de facto leader and face of the Democratic Party, and it better not be another corrupt pervert.
I agree completely about VA-Gov and CA Prop 50, but I disagree with your final sentence. Did anybody think that Bill de Blasio or Eric Adams were de facto leaders of the Democratic Party? I certainly didn't.
I am not suggesting the mayor of NYC generically is the leader of the Democratic Party. This particular mayoral election is being framed as a battle for the identity of the Democratic Party, and the GOP fully intends to make Mamdani the face of the party, whether he wants it or not. The media is fully on board as well.
So my comment is not about the position of mayor of NYC...but the fact that there is a lot of narrative-crafting around this particular election in this particular year.
If anything, this election is less meaningful than a typical NYC election. Many normie Dems found Cuomo unacceptable because of the harassment issue, and the not-Cuomo vote eventually coalesced around Mamdani. If Cuomo hadn't been in the race I think most of the mainstream vote would have coalesced around one of the more mainstream Dems, but of course I can't prove this.
I think this is true. Empirically speaking, my mom held her nose and voted for Cuomo, but would have happily voted for Lander (as one example) if that had been a real option.
Yeah, I think the implications of the NYC mayor race are being grossly overhyped. The right-wing angertainment complex wants to use Mamdani as a boogeyman because he gives them a 3-fer being a Muslim, an immigrant, and a socialist at least by US standards. I don't expect anything to stick outside the red bubble, because outside the NYC media market no one sees the NYC mayor as a significant party leader.
Mamdani won’t even be the face of the Democratic Party in NY. That will remain AOC if you are thinking star power and Schumer if you are thinking old, boring, and risk adverse.
One of for sure. Both in NY obviously and to some degree nationally. And that will decrease as we get further from his election win unless he does something unexpectedly awesome or horrendous. Governing a huge city involves so many moving parts and so much inertia I expect achievements or failures of substance will take years.
Without ME Question 1 on the list I would struggle quite a bit to answer, as all of the others except NYC mayor are fairly critical. Then for NYC mayor I despise the idea of seeing a disgraced sex pest return to office on the back of Trump toadyism and the support of the ultra wealthy.
ME 1 is still important but in comparison to the others its the easiest to give up.
NYC mayor. Residents of at least 46 other states don't care and think NYC gets way too much coverage and credit. Maybe folks in CT, NJ, MA care. Maybe.
Losing any of those races would be terrible, but the least worst of them would be NJ-Gov, because Sherill losing that race might be a catalyst for a progressive takeover attempt within the NJ Democratic Party, and we wouldn't have to defend Sherill's potentially-competitive U.S. House seat in a special election.
The worst losses for us would be VA-Gov, NYC-Mayor, and CA Prop 50.
I am not seeing similar activity in the Indiana Democratic party. Of course, it is hard to get news about the Indiana Democratic party, and so far, only one notable candidate has declared for 2026 statewide office.
My guess is that it takes one for the team and keeps the bottom from falling out for MN Republicans - assuming she wins the primary, anyway. The MN Republican party is infamous for lackluster candidates and poor fundraising.
I'd give her 50-50 odds at beating Walz whose resume isn't holding up so well these days. I thought he'd have a closer shave than he ended up getting in 2022 as well, but I think his big win then was at least partially the good fortune of being able to run against the clownish Doc Jensen. I'm doubtful Demuth will be as lackluster of a candidate as Jensen and Walz's vulnerabilities are piling up.
Considering that this is the Minnesota Republican Party though, I wouldn't rule out the possibility of them tossing her in the trash in favor of the MyPillow Guy or Doc Jensen again when selecting a nominee.
For the 50-50 odds, what national environment are you imagining concurrent with it?
I know you tend to be on the more pessimistic side (nothing wrong with that!). I'm curious if you see the 50-50 for a neutral or minimally blue year, or applying even in a year where we're picking up the house and 2+ senate seats, or similarly decent favorable conditions.
Tough call on the national environment. Trump is gonna unveil an unprecedented degree of dirty tricks to put his thumb on the scale to suppress Democratic voting and it's a real wild card.
I fully expect Trump to recycle his Argentina playbook, vowing to use tariff revenue to give bailouts to states that vote Republican while leaving states that vote Democrat to twist in the wind.
I fully expect Trump to have red-state National Guard members fire tear gas and rubber bullets at dark blue polling stations in key swing states, and I figure the intimidation will work to some degree.
Just generally specific to Minnesota, there's an increasing perception of Walz being a bad fiscal steward and I think it will box out Minnesota from a 2018-style blue wave regardless of the national environment. That's not to say that there isn't potential for the national environment to keep Walz and other Minnesota Democrats from having an ugly night, but I'd expect Minnesota to significantly lag the national average for Democratic advantage.
Not trying to put words in your mouth, but I'd interpret that as somewhere between a neutral and a lightly good year for us nationally?
I don't think 50-50 is unreasonable in that light. A bit more pessimistic than I'd be but I might be too optimistic at times, so... Especially if he has a penalty for trying to go for a third term.
I do suspect/hope we're going to have a year much better than neutral to light blue, but I have no way of knowing.
You'd take an even money bet on Demuth against Walz in this environment? Seriously - name the amount of money you want to bet and I'll take that action. I'm not kidding - name the amount.
Seriously though, Tim Pawlenty won reelection in a political climate much worse than it's likely to be next year. Gubernatorial races don't ebb and flow with the same rhythm as federal races.
At a high-level I think that's true, but Gubernatorial races are definitely influenced by the national environment and Minnesota is a (light) blue state. I just don't see any reason why a relatively non-controversial incumbent D governor would lose there next year, unless the environment changes dramatically.
Do you live in Minnesota? What's your read of the race? I might move there next year, so I'm interested what the political landscape looks like right now.
I grew up in Minnesota and am attuned to their politics more than any other state even though I shamed myself by moving to a neighboring state 20 years ago.
Seriously though, Walz is seriously vulnerable. His DFL trifecta spent a $17 billion surplus in 2023 and were already poised to go into the next biennium with a $6 billion deficit....a number that will likely grow with each budgetary update as the economy slows. It looks like terrible fiscal stewardship and if a perceived moderate like Demuth ends up as the nominee, I suspect she can win back a lot of the upscale suburbs that are now a cornerstone of the contemporary DFL coalition.
In addition, bad actors with insufficient oversight have stolen more than $1 billion in fraud cases during Walz's tenure. This probably doesn't get a ton of media coverage outside of Minnesota but inside the state it's the centerpiece of nearly every local media story and represents a major vulnerability for Walz as well as the Attorney General and the state Auditor position where the incumbent is not running for reelection. Republicans have made clear they intend to make this the centerpiece of their case against Walz. I'm not sure if it'll stick but the magnitude of fraud is indefensible and the racial overtones will give the story some additional dog whistle resonance.
Walz's best chance at reelection is to run against Trump. The possibility of a GOP trifecta (very real possibility) that would turn Minnesota into MAGA-land would also be powerful. I wish Walz had yielded to another Democrat though as this is gonna be a tough slog. If it wasn't a Trump midterm, I'd consider him a distinct underdog.
I still say you’re way too focused on things voters don’t give 1 second of thought to. Maybe 10% of Minnesotans know Democrats as a trifecta spent a budget surplus, less than that actually care to base their vote on it.
We’re smarter and more politically aware than almost anyone else in the state and the argument that a budget will cause people to vote for a Republican in a state that hasn’t elected a GOP governor in decades during a Trump midterm is imo not really understanding political dynamics for the average voter.
It’s something that could’ve mattered when both parties were arguing over money, not so much over arguing whether we have a king fascist party with extremist far right policies or not having that. If 2026 ends in a blowout win, I hope you’ll make note for any future predictions, just like I promise to if the GOP wins. Nothing wrong with being pessimistic, but the reasoning being a budget? Yeah, no.
10%? Really? I think you're giving Minnesotans far too little credit. I'd bet on it being at least 40%....with another 20% reminded of it with an even marginally competent Republican ad campaign.
Your mistake is assuming the average voters think like and know as much as we do. They don’t. Minnesota is not immune to this country wide phenomenon. Most voters are uneducated and don’t think about politics like us.
Not sure why Dems aren’t trying to get independent redistricting passed in MN (and any swing state where they could feasibly lose their seat at the table in a redistricting election). I think Dems are being stupid with this here and in states like Nevada where they are fighting having independent redistricting put on the ballot.
Doug Wilder went from Virginia governor in 1994, to leading the campaign in Richmond to go from a weak mayor to a strong mayor, and then got himself elected the first strong mayor.
Yes, if the year is as red as 2024, we’ll almost certainly lose it, but if you expect like I think most people do, that at bare minimum 2026 will be a few points bluer in Ohio, then she’s definitely got a shot.
We shall see how the NJ governor's race shapes up by tomorrow. I honestly don't see how Sherrill doesn't win in a Trump midterm, especially with TACO endorsing her opponent.
Worth noting that CNN's latest Trump Approval poll shows Trump with a net -26 Disapprove rating, including his highest disapproval ever.
He was at 62% Disapproval in the poll after January 6th (with a much lower approval rating than today, so his overall net was lower then), but is at 63% Disapprove in the poll released this morning.
Of course, Sean Trende does not care about this fact, as he testified in the Utah congressional redistricting case that he's not at all a Republican nor is he partisan in any way. /s
Hopefully, the Harvard Institute of Politics, which Warren led in the last years of his life until his death, won't fall into the control of a Trump-aligned extremist.
Remember when Republicans drew Virginia's Congressional map so Black people were packed into one district and said we should be grateful they gave our community this district. NOW they can have one district and see how much they love it.
It includes some of the familiar names like James Talarico, Mallory McMorrow, and Anderson Clayton, but also folks like Kat Abughazaleh and Graham Platner.
This is a fan-fucking-tastic article. Talks about younger Dems across the ideological spectrum, where they came from, why they're gaining prominence, including local candidates. Thanks for sharing MPC!
I posted the article because Anderson and McMorrow were in it. The whole article didn't disappoint! And if anyone else here is from NC, you know how well Anderson got under the NC GOP's skin this past weekend.
Parts of the NCSBE website went down on Sunday -- conveniently on the last day of early voting for municipal elections. Anderson made noise about it on social media, ripping auditor Dave Boliek for firing seasoned employees on the board (like Karen Brinson Bell) and replacing them with inexperienced partisan lackeys like Sam Hayes and Dallas Woodhouse.
It took Boliek or Hayes SEVERAL hours to release a statement regarding the outage, but only after Anderson's remarks made the news. Not only was the statement deranged, but they also made a veiled swipe at Anderson, calling her remarks "disinformation."
The NC GOP keeps acting up, they will lose more races.
Michelle Wu is a exact like for like replacement for Warren and is also an YIMBY like her mentor. Too early but I think we'll see an Auchincloss vs Wu in 2030. I dislike Auchincloss and his politics but I think he's impressive.
Torres has no constituency except for the center-left pundit class and the lobby.
So 250K more D's voting early and 210K more R's voting than in 2021. I'm curious how 2021 covid politics is playing here? Is it no longer a sin for a republican to vote early?
question on CA turnout for Prop 50. This is based in part on my anecdotal report of walking 3 precincts of my choosing, and I'm going to the condos/ apts/ younger voters, aka 3 x 5 and 2 x 5 voters, skipping the super reliable 5 x 5 voters. Everyone tells me they're voting/ already voted. An this goes along w/ what I'm hearing from other Dems statewide. So I started to get excited about historically high turnout in an off-off year. But PDI has, statewide, 27 percent ballots returned, and 22 percent in my county. (2022 midterm: 52 percent voted; 2024 midterm, close to 70 percent voted) Any guesses what's happening?
I think the answer to your question is already in your post. It’s an off-off year election and will likely have historically high turnout in comparison to other off-off year elections, but not compared to any national elections.
First, there is some delay to the PDI data. It's only showing the votes that have been counted and fully processed. If a ballot is in the mail or has been received by the registrar of voters but not processed, then it wouldn't be in PDI's data yet.
Second, I do suspect that while there is high enthusiasm among liberally-minded folks, there might be low enthusiasm/disinterest in voting among conservatives in California specifically. Yes on Prop 50 campaigns have not been targeting conservative voters, and for most voters, that's the only thing on the ballot.
I suspect a good number of ballots will get dropped off on Election Day itself. There always are procrastinators. So that 27% could double by the time all ballots are counted--or at least get up into the 40% range.
Also, a better point of comparison than midterms and Presidential elections might be the 2021 recall. In that election, voter turnout was 58%, but a good chunk of those voters were riled up conservatives. My best guess? The final turnout percentage will probably be around 50%.
Navigate and Echelon are about the same on the governor race, but Navigate has Hashmi up 12 and Echelon up only 3. We'll see who was closer soon enough...
Former KTVI/KPLR anchor/reporter Angie Mock faces first degree murder charges for the killing of her mother Anita Avers on Halloween morning in Wichita, Kansas. What insanity.
Good for Kaptur. She’s always been a fighter.
If she wins, it'll probably be her last term I speculate.
Possibly.
For now, providing Democrats win control over the House next year, Kaptur winning re-election means one less seat to worry about.
Kaptur has also served in the House longer than Nancy Pelosi although a bit younger than her.
She might want to serve a term with what we hope is a new trifecta and get something done, but let's see whether she wins reelection this time.
Here's my question for the day. If you had to choose one of the marquee races tomorrow for your side to lose (VA-Gov, NJ-Gov, CA Prop 50, NYC Mayor, PA judicial, or ME Question 1), which one would it be?
ME 1.
ME 1 would face BIG blowback if approved, particularly from elderly and disabled voters. Probably enough for another referendum to repeal it.
While I agree that it would lead to blowback, I think it would be doable to overcome its strictness. I also think it would be the least consequential loss.
However, I have a gut feeling that ME Question 1 will fail.
I'll be honest NY Mayor is the least important of all those. Sue me.
Certainly won't be the least important in terms of narrative.
VA-Gov and CA Prop 50 are must-wins for us due to the gerrymandering wars, and NYC Mayor is a must-win from a national narrative-setting standpoint and helping determine how the Democratic Party is going to frame itself going forward. I wouldn't want to lose any of these, but losing any of those three would be catastrophic. Some may not agree on Cuomo being catastrophic, but whoever wins this race is going to become a de facto leader and face of the Democratic Party, and it better not be another corrupt pervert.
I agree completely about VA-Gov and CA Prop 50, but I disagree with your final sentence. Did anybody think that Bill de Blasio or Eric Adams were de facto leaders of the Democratic Party? I certainly didn't.
Pundits and national dems sure tried to hype up Eric Adams as the future but I don't think anyone saw them as a leader of the party.
https://www.reddit.com/r/neoliberal/comments/1fps4ry/remember_when_eric_adams_was_touted_as_the_future/
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/20/democrats-calling-communications-eric-adams-new-york-00034180
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/26/nyregion/eric-adams-mayor-democrats.html
The job tends to eat people alive, and that’ll probably happen to Mamdani to some extent too.
I am not suggesting the mayor of NYC generically is the leader of the Democratic Party. This particular mayoral election is being framed as a battle for the identity of the Democratic Party, and the GOP fully intends to make Mamdani the face of the party, whether he wants it or not. The media is fully on board as well.
So my comment is not about the position of mayor of NYC...but the fact that there is a lot of narrative-crafting around this particular election in this particular year.
If anything, this election is less meaningful than a typical NYC election. Many normie Dems found Cuomo unacceptable because of the harassment issue, and the not-Cuomo vote eventually coalesced around Mamdani. If Cuomo hadn't been in the race I think most of the mainstream vote would have coalesced around one of the more mainstream Dems, but of course I can't prove this.
I think this is true. Empirically speaking, my mom held her nose and voted for Cuomo, but would have happily voted for Lander (as one example) if that had been a real option.
Yeah, I think the implications of the NYC mayor race are being grossly overhyped. The right-wing angertainment complex wants to use Mamdani as a boogeyman because he gives them a 3-fer being a Muslim, an immigrant, and a socialist at least by US standards. I don't expect anything to stick outside the red bubble, because outside the NYC media market no one sees the NYC mayor as a significant party leader.
Excellent comment. And I hope you don't mind if I borrow the term "angertainment" - I really like it.
I picked the term up from Adam Frisch, who ran against Lauren Boebert a few years ago.
This is 100% true - if it wasn't Mamdani, it would be someone else. They will always find someone to demonize.
Mamdani won’t even be the face of the Democratic Party in NY. That will remain AOC if you are thinking star power and Schumer if you are thinking old, boring, and risk adverse.
I think he will be one of the faces of the DP in NY but not nationally since NYC is the biggest city and dominates the state.
One of for sure. Both in NY obviously and to some degree nationally. And that will decrease as we get further from his election win unless he does something unexpectedly awesome or horrendous. Governing a huge city involves so many moving parts and so much inertia I expect achievements or failures of substance will take years.
Without ME Question 1 on the list I would struggle quite a bit to answer, as all of the others except NYC mayor are fairly critical. Then for NYC mayor I despise the idea of seeing a disgraced sex pest return to office on the back of Trump toadyism and the support of the ultra wealthy.
ME 1 is still important but in comparison to the others its the easiest to give up.
NYC mayor. Residents of at least 46 other states don't care and think NYC gets way too much coverage and credit. Maybe folks in CT, NJ, MA care. Maybe.
Losing any of those races would be terrible, but the least worst of them would be NJ-Gov, because Sherill losing that race might be a catalyst for a progressive takeover attempt within the NJ Democratic Party, and we wouldn't have to defend Sherill's potentially-competitive U.S. House seat in a special election.
The worst losses for us would be VA-Gov, NYC-Mayor, and CA Prop 50.
Meanwhile, Governor Mike Braun is fundraising for Indiana Republicans:
https://indianacapitalchronicle.com/2025/11/03/brauns-post-election-committees-raise-hundreds-of-thousands-from-indiana-business-leaders/?emci=c543724b-8db6-f011-8e61-6045bded8ba4&emdi=259506d4-b0b8-f011-8e61-6045bded8ba4&ceid=630426
I am not seeing similar activity in the Indiana Democratic party. Of course, it is hard to get news about the Indiana Democratic party, and so far, only one notable candidate has declared for 2026 statewide office.
Why is Demuth offering herself up as a sacrificial lamb? In a Democratic-leaning midterm? What is she thinking?
Also, Carolina Forward did some oppo on wannabe Senator Michael Whatley: https://carolinaforward.org/blog/the-man-behind-the-curtain-what-michael-whatleys-career-says-about-his-candidacy/?emci=e2000544-a2b5-f011-8e61-6045bded8ba4&emdi=654b3971-a8b8-f011-8e61-6045bded8ba4&ceid=13375922
My guess is that it takes one for the team and keeps the bottom from falling out for MN Republicans - assuming she wins the primary, anyway. The MN Republican party is infamous for lackluster candidates and poor fundraising.
The thinking is simple.....pretty much everyone in Minnesota thinks she can win.
So someone to keep the bottom from falling out? Unless she gets the T-Paw 2018 primary treatment.
I'd give her 50-50 odds at beating Walz whose resume isn't holding up so well these days. I thought he'd have a closer shave than he ended up getting in 2022 as well, but I think his big win then was at least partially the good fortune of being able to run against the clownish Doc Jensen. I'm doubtful Demuth will be as lackluster of a candidate as Jensen and Walz's vulnerabilities are piling up.
Considering that this is the Minnesota Republican Party though, I wouldn't rule out the possibility of them tossing her in the trash in favor of the MyPillow Guy or Doc Jensen again when selecting a nominee.
For the 50-50 odds, what national environment are you imagining concurrent with it?
I know you tend to be on the more pessimistic side (nothing wrong with that!). I'm curious if you see the 50-50 for a neutral or minimally blue year, or applying even in a year where we're picking up the house and 2+ senate seats, or similarly decent favorable conditions.
Tough call on the national environment. Trump is gonna unveil an unprecedented degree of dirty tricks to put his thumb on the scale to suppress Democratic voting and it's a real wild card.
I fully expect Trump to recycle his Argentina playbook, vowing to use tariff revenue to give bailouts to states that vote Republican while leaving states that vote Democrat to twist in the wind.
I fully expect Trump to have red-state National Guard members fire tear gas and rubber bullets at dark blue polling stations in key swing states, and I figure the intimidation will work to some degree.
Just generally specific to Minnesota, there's an increasing perception of Walz being a bad fiscal steward and I think it will box out Minnesota from a 2018-style blue wave regardless of the national environment. That's not to say that there isn't potential for the national environment to keep Walz and other Minnesota Democrats from having an ugly night, but I'd expect Minnesota to significantly lag the national average for Democratic advantage.
How many Democratic votes can Trump suppress in states with Democratic leadership, e.g. Minnesota?
Not trying to put words in your mouth, but I'd interpret that as somewhere between a neutral and a lightly good year for us nationally?
I don't think 50-50 is unreasonable in that light. A bit more pessimistic than I'd be but I might be too optimistic at times, so... Especially if he has a penalty for trying to go for a third term.
I do suspect/hope we're going to have a year much better than neutral to light blue, but I have no way of knowing.
You'd take an even money bet on Demuth against Walz in this environment? Seriously - name the amount of money you want to bet and I'll take that action. I'm not kidding - name the amount.
Let's save the betting for babka!
Seriously though, Tim Pawlenty won reelection in a political climate much worse than it's likely to be next year. Gubernatorial races don't ebb and flow with the same rhythm as federal races.
At a high-level I think that's true, but Gubernatorial races are definitely influenced by the national environment and Minnesota is a (light) blue state. I just don't see any reason why a relatively non-controversial incumbent D governor would lose there next year, unless the environment changes dramatically.
Do you live in Minnesota? What's your read of the race? I might move there next year, so I'm interested what the political landscape looks like right now.
I grew up in Minnesota and am attuned to their politics more than any other state even though I shamed myself by moving to a neighboring state 20 years ago.
Seriously though, Walz is seriously vulnerable. His DFL trifecta spent a $17 billion surplus in 2023 and were already poised to go into the next biennium with a $6 billion deficit....a number that will likely grow with each budgetary update as the economy slows. It looks like terrible fiscal stewardship and if a perceived moderate like Demuth ends up as the nominee, I suspect she can win back a lot of the upscale suburbs that are now a cornerstone of the contemporary DFL coalition.
In addition, bad actors with insufficient oversight have stolen more than $1 billion in fraud cases during Walz's tenure. This probably doesn't get a ton of media coverage outside of Minnesota but inside the state it's the centerpiece of nearly every local media story and represents a major vulnerability for Walz as well as the Attorney General and the state Auditor position where the incumbent is not running for reelection. Republicans have made clear they intend to make this the centerpiece of their case against Walz. I'm not sure if it'll stick but the magnitude of fraud is indefensible and the racial overtones will give the story some additional dog whistle resonance.
Walz's best chance at reelection is to run against Trump. The possibility of a GOP trifecta (very real possibility) that would turn Minnesota into MAGA-land would also be powerful. I wish Walz had yielded to another Democrat though as this is gonna be a tough slog. If it wasn't a Trump midterm, I'd consider him a distinct underdog.
I still say you’re way too focused on things voters don’t give 1 second of thought to. Maybe 10% of Minnesotans know Democrats as a trifecta spent a budget surplus, less than that actually care to base their vote on it.
We’re smarter and more politically aware than almost anyone else in the state and the argument that a budget will cause people to vote for a Republican in a state that hasn’t elected a GOP governor in decades during a Trump midterm is imo not really understanding political dynamics for the average voter.
It’s something that could’ve mattered when both parties were arguing over money, not so much over arguing whether we have a king fascist party with extremist far right policies or not having that. If 2026 ends in a blowout win, I hope you’ll make note for any future predictions, just like I promise to if the GOP wins. Nothing wrong with being pessimistic, but the reasoning being a budget? Yeah, no.
10%? Really? I think you're giving Minnesotans far too little credit. I'd bet on it being at least 40%....with another 20% reminded of it with an even marginally competent Republican ad campaign.
Your mistake is assuming the average voters think like and know as much as we do. They don’t. Minnesota is not immune to this country wide phenomenon. Most voters are uneducated and don’t think about politics like us.
Not sure why Dems aren’t trying to get independent redistricting passed in MN (and any swing state where they could feasibly lose their seat at the table in a redistricting election). I think Dems are being stupid with this here and in states like Nevada where they are fighting having independent redistricting put on the ballot.
Doug Wilder went from Virginia governor in 1994, to leading the campaign in Richmond to go from a weak mayor to a strong mayor, and then got himself elected the first strong mayor.
Did Sherrod Brown win the old configuration of Kaptur's district last year?
Yes he won the old configuration 48.13-47.42, but lost the new version by like 3 points.
That's bad.
I don't think it's insurmountable. The district is still slightly bluer than the state overall.
Yes, if the year is as red as 2024, we’ll almost certainly lose it, but if you expect like I think most people do, that at bare minimum 2026 will be a few points bluer in Ohio, then she’s definitely got a shot.
calling it now: kaptur will win...even new district
I am so rooting for a MASSIVE shellacking in Virginia tomorrow. As well as everywhere else.
save a little of that rooting for NJ...repugs think they are going to win and gov race there is getting a lot of national attention
We shall see how the NJ governor's race shapes up by tomorrow. I honestly don't see how Sherrill doesn't win in a Trump midterm, especially with TACO endorsing her opponent.
Why should it be one or the other. I want a shellacking for both!
who said it should be one or the other?
Worth noting that CNN's latest Trump Approval poll shows Trump with a net -26 Disapprove rating, including his highest disapproval ever.
He was at 62% Disapproval in the poll after January 6th (with a much lower approval rating than today, so his overall net was lower then), but is at 63% Disapprove in the poll released this morning.
https://bsky.app/profile/gelliottmorris.com/post/3m4q75da3kc2q
He’s even at -10 at RCP.
Of course, Sean Trende does not care about this fact, as he testified in the Utah congressional redistricting case that he's not at all a Republican nor is he partisan in any way. /s
It amazes me to see that Democrats still cite RCP.
It tends to be the corporate media's go-to aggregator, so that grants it legitimacy it doesn't deserve.
I'm pretty sure that Harry Enten declared that Trump was "winning the shutdown" last week. *eyeroll*
(For the record, I don't think anyone is "winning" anything.)
Hope these disapproval ratings continue. Not just because Trump is a disaster but I just like the idea of electing more Democrats in office. ;)
Former Newton, Massachusetts Mayor Setti Warren has died at the age of 55:
https://www.instagram.com/p/DQkfoFzjOa5/
Hopefully, the Harvard Institute of Politics, which Warren led in the last years of his life until his death, won't fall into the control of a Trump-aligned extremist.
I was trying to recall where I remember that name. He was an early runner for the 2012 Senate Dem primary.
Had the exact same thought
Yeah, I remember seeing "E. Warren" and "S. Warren" in some of the polling.
Saddened by the news of his passing.
If even *freaking Harvard* and its bajillion-dollar endowment won't stand up to Trump, then it deserves to see its reputation crumble.
That's really tragic!
There’s a whole lot going on in this tweet and I’m here for all of it from the Senate President Pro Tempore in Virginia.
https://x.com/SenLouiseLucas/status/1985151099527942517
L. Louise Lucas
@SenLouiseLucas
Remember when Republicans drew Virginia's Congressional map so Black people were packed into one district and said we should be grateful they gave our community this district. NOW they can have one district and see how much they love it.
More of this please. Especially if they gut the VRA.
L. Louise Lucas is an EXPERT at trolling the GOP and I am all for it.
GOP cracked up the House district she was going to run in back in the 2000s and she hates them with the fury of a 1000 suns for it.
I love a good grudge sometimes...haha
She engages a lot with Election Twitter and weighs in on the maps made by some in the community.
We need more Democrats like Lucas.
Particularly in Colorado and Washington.
THAT is the good stuff.
NY Intelligencer posted up a pretty good article: 25 Young(ish) Democrats to Watch
https://archive.ph/7lWmS
It includes some of the familiar names like James Talarico, Mallory McMorrow, and Anderson Clayton, but also folks like Kat Abughazaleh and Graham Platner.
This is a fan-fucking-tastic article. Talks about younger Dems across the ideological spectrum, where they came from, why they're gaining prominence, including local candidates. Thanks for sharing MPC!
I posted the article because Anderson and McMorrow were in it. The whole article didn't disappoint! And if anyone else here is from NC, you know how well Anderson got under the NC GOP's skin this past weekend.
Parts of the NCSBE website went down on Sunday -- conveniently on the last day of early voting for municipal elections. Anderson made noise about it on social media, ripping auditor Dave Boliek for firing seasoned employees on the board (like Karen Brinson Bell) and replacing them with inexperienced partisan lackeys like Sam Hayes and Dallas Woodhouse.
It took Boliek or Hayes SEVERAL hours to release a statement regarding the outage, but only after Anderson's remarks made the news. Not only was the statement deranged, but they also made a veiled swipe at Anderson, calling her remarks "disinformation."
The NC GOP keeps acting up, they will lose more races.
Great article
Spotted Anna Eskamani, Lauren Underwood, Zooey Zephyr, Greg Casar, Maxwell Alejandro Frost, and Zach Wahls too.
Michelle Wu is a exact like for like replacement for Warren and is also an YIMBY like her mentor. Too early but I think we'll see an Auchincloss vs Wu in 2030. I dislike Auchincloss and his politics but I think he's impressive.
Torres has no constituency except for the center-left pundit class and the lobby.
Great article regardless.
oh yea, i'm certainly watching Platner flame out
https://archive.ph/zB2q9
Michelle Goldberg
I Thought Graham Platner Was Finished. What I Saw in Maine Changed My Mind.
That's not a good thing.
NJ: 1.3 million advance votes have been cast.
https://x.com/umichvoter/status/1985399610777665765
Fantastic! Always good to see people voting en masse.
So 250K more D's voting early and 210K more R's voting than in 2021. I'm curious how 2021 covid politics is playing here? Is it no longer a sin for a republican to vote early?
Mail ballots are still a sin.
question on CA turnout for Prop 50. This is based in part on my anecdotal report of walking 3 precincts of my choosing, and I'm going to the condos/ apts/ younger voters, aka 3 x 5 and 2 x 5 voters, skipping the super reliable 5 x 5 voters. Everyone tells me they're voting/ already voted. An this goes along w/ what I'm hearing from other Dems statewide. So I started to get excited about historically high turnout in an off-off year. But PDI has, statewide, 27 percent ballots returned, and 22 percent in my county. (2022 midterm: 52 percent voted; 2024 midterm, close to 70 percent voted) Any guesses what's happening?
I think the answer to your question is already in your post. It’s an off-off year election and will likely have historically high turnout in comparison to other off-off year elections, but not compared to any national elections.
I have a few possible explanations.
First, there is some delay to the PDI data. It's only showing the votes that have been counted and fully processed. If a ballot is in the mail or has been received by the registrar of voters but not processed, then it wouldn't be in PDI's data yet.
Second, I do suspect that while there is high enthusiasm among liberally-minded folks, there might be low enthusiasm/disinterest in voting among conservatives in California specifically. Yes on Prop 50 campaigns have not been targeting conservative voters, and for most voters, that's the only thing on the ballot.
I suspect a good number of ballots will get dropped off on Election Day itself. There always are procrastinators. So that 27% could double by the time all ballots are counted--or at least get up into the 40% range.
Also, a better point of comparison than midterms and Presidential elections might be the 2021 recall. In that election, voter turnout was 58%, but a good chunk of those voters were riled up conservatives. My best guess? The final turnout percentage will probably be around 50%.
What does 2x5 and 3x5 mean?
voted in 2 out of the last 5 elex; voted in 3 out of the last 5 elex.
Navigate and Echelon are about the same on the governor race, but Navigate has Hashmi up 12 and Echelon up only 3. We'll see who was closer soon enough...
Nancy Pelosi is reportedly looking at retiring at the end of her current term.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/end-of-an-era-at-85-california-rep-nancy-pelosi-expected-to-announce-retirement/ar-AA1PJgcW?ocid=BingNewsSerp
As a native born San Franciscan, I hope the race to replace Pelosi is a real race and not an annoitment.
This is re-upped from the Weekly Open Thread.
Former KTVI/KPLR anchor/reporter Angie Mock faces first degree murder charges for the killing of her mother Anita Avers on Halloween morning in Wichita, Kansas. What insanity.
KAKE (ABC Wichita report): https://www.kake.com/home/woman-killed-daughter-arrested-in-south-wichita-stabbing/article_6ffedd6f-5e4d-43d3-aed7-37408cc7d1c4.html
My Substack: https://jgibsondem.substack.com/p/the-sad-downfall-of-angie-mock
Are she or her mom former electeds/candidates?
Nope. But it is a story of interest, especially in STL and Wichita.
So not really relevant here. People get killed every day.