Morning Digest, sponsored by 314 Action: Trump just flipped Nassau County. Democrats think they can win it back

The county's leader has embraced MAGA—and that may be a liability this year

Nassau County Legislator Seth Koslow, Democratic candidate for county executive (credit: Seth Koslow campaign Facebook)

Leading Off

Nassau County, NY Executive

Democrat Seth Koslow announced Wednesday that he would challenge Republican Bruce Blakeman to lead Long Island's Nassau County, a populous community where Donald Trump just broke a long Democratic winning streak at the top of the ticket. The new candidate, though, is betting that the same type of dramatic political shift that carried Blakeman into office as county executive in 2021 will benefit him in time for this November's election.

Koslow, who was elected to his first term on the 19-member County Legislature in 2023, launched his campaign with support from some of the area's most prominent Democrats. His backers include former Executive Laura Curran, who lost reelection to Blakeman just over three years ago; Rep. Tom Suozzi, who held this post during the 2000s; and Jay Jacobs, who doubles as chair of both the state and county parties.

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No other Democrats have expressed interest in taking on Blakeman, and this show of force for Koslow may dissuade any would-be contenders from entering the June primary. Blakeman, for his part, has not announced his reelection campaign, but he spent last year raising money for another bid.

Nassau County, where almost 1.4 million people live, was once home to one of the nation's most powerful GOP political machines, but that era of dominance had begun to fade by the late 1990s, leading to a Democratic resurgence in the 21st century. Curran's 2017 victory ended eight years of Republican control of the executive's office, and the county went on to decisively back Joe Biden 54-45 in 2020, which extended its streak of supporting Democrats for president that began with Bill Clinton in 1992.

Blakeman, a Hempstead councilman who'd suffered several high-profile defeats during his long career (and whose ex-wife is married to Beatles legend Paul McCartney), therefore appeared to be the underdog for most of his campaign against Curran.

The Republican, though, saw an opening by ardently opposing Gov. Kathy Hochul's mask mandates and a bail reform law the state legislature approved in 2019. He also railed against property taxes, a perennial issue on Long Island, and connected the incumbent to the Biden administration, which had grown unpopular.

Blakeman overcame a steep fundraising disadvantage to upset Curran 50.4-49.6, a win that instantly made him one of the biggest names in New York GOP politics. Since his victory, the executive has not been shy about cultivating attention and transforming his once-blue county, in the words of the New York Times' Nicholas Fandos, "into a kind of laboratory for Trumpism."

Last year, he announced the formation of a 75-person armed group of "special deputies" that would answer to him, which critics likened to a militia. He also spent 2024 working to ban transgender athletes from competing in women's sports at county-owned facilities.

Blakeman went on to host a Trump rally in September at the Nassau Coliseum, telling Fandos, "The fact that he’s coming may seem like a surprise to some people, but there is something going on, a movement going on here." Trump proved him right two months later by carrying Nassau County 51-47, a victory that made him the first GOP presidential nominee to prevail there since George H.W. Bush in 1988.

The night wasn't a total disaster for local Democrats, as Laura Gillen narrowly unseated GOP Rep. Anthony D'Esposito—whose 4th District is home to the Coliseum—two years after he beat her during another strong cycle for Long Island Republicans. Still, Trump's victory in a place he'd badly lost four years earlier didn't give Democrats much reason to hope that the local government's experiment with Trumpism was going to end anytime soon.

Koslow, however, believes that the kind of issues that helped Blakeman pull off his come-from-behind victory in 2021, as well as his national profile, will hold him back this time around.

"Costs keep rising, even though families are struggling to make ends meet," he told the Long Island Press. The challenger also took the incumbent to task for failing to live up to his promise to cut taxes and for "national headline-grabbing type of stunts."

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Dems start 2025 with big wins in Virginia

Senate

OH-Sen, OH-Gov

JD Vance's resignation from the Senate took effect at midnight, and it now falls to Republican Gov. Mike DeWine to appoint someone to replace the vice president-elect. Vance's seat will be on the ballot in a November 2026 special election, and the winner will be up for a full term two years later.

NBC's Henry Gomez says that Lt. Gov. Jon Husted "has emerged as the leading" choice for the appointment but adds that Husted himself has yet to make up his mind if he wants to go to the Senate. The lieutenant governor has spent years as an all-but-certain candidate in the race to succeed DeWine, who cannot seek a third term in 2026.

Governors

AL-Gov, AL-Sen

Republican Sen. Tommy Tuberville didn't rule out running for governor of Alabama in comments to reporters on Wednesday, an admission that comes two months after he appeared to take his name out of contention by announcing a bid for reelection next year.

"You never say never on anything; okay, because things change," Tuberville said when asked about his interest in succeeding termed-out Gov. Kay Ivey, a fellow Republican. The former Auburn University football coach also sent mixed signals about his desire to remain in the Senate, declaring, "I can't say that I've enjoyed it up here, but I'm glad I've been in D.C. for the last four years. I'm looking forward to the next two years."

But Tuberville is far from the only Alabama Republican thinking about entering the state's first open race for governor since 2010, including a pair who unsuccessfully challenged Ivey in 2022.

Businesswoman Lindy Blanchard, who spent $11 million of her own fortune last time, told the conservative site 1819 News in July she was considering another try. While Blanchard, who served as Donald Trump's ambassador to Slovenia from 2019 to 2021, doesn't appear to have publicly said anything since then, AL.com's Mike Cason identified her as a potential candidate this week.

Businessman Tim James, who is the son of former Gov. Fob James, likewise told Cason he hadn't decided if he'll wage a fourth campaign for his father's old job. Blanchard and James competed against Ivey in an ugly primary marked by a torrent of transphobic ads. Ivey won with 54%, a few points above the majority she needed to avoid a runoff, while Blanchard outpaced James 19-16 for what proved to be the meaningless honor of finishing second.

Watch David Nir and Aaron Rupar's live chat and Q&A

PA-Gov

Republican Rep. Dan Meuser, who said last month that he was considering a bid for governor, reiterated his interest in challenging Democrat Josh Shapiro and told The Hill he might make a decision by July.

VA-Gov

A new Emerson College survey for The Hill shows former Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger with a tiny 42-41 edge over Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears in the first poll anyone has released this year of November's likely matchup for Virginia's governorship. The two are competing to replace Gov. Glenn Youngkin, a Republican who is prohibited from seeking a second consecutive term this fall.

Judges

WI Supreme Court

New fundraising numbers give Judge Susan Crawford an edge over former Attorney General Brad Schimel in April's pivotal battle for the Wisconsin Supreme Court despite entering the race well after her rival. Crawford, who has the backing of state Democrats, said this week she's raised $2.8 million since kicking off her campaign last June and has $2.1 million banked. Schimel, a Republican, said he's pulled in $2.2 million and has $1.8 million remaining, though he launched his bid in October of 2023.

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Mayors & County Leaders

New York, NY Mayor

A Democratic primary clash between Mayor Eric Adams and former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, which once seemed unlikely, now appears to be imminent. Cuomo, reports Politico, is "actively preparing his potential campaign" and is considering announcing early next month.

Politico says that while the former governor previously planned to run only if Adams stepped aside, he's since reconsidered as the mayor's legal situation has worsened. At the same time, Adams, who is set to go on trial for corruption in April, has repeatedly declared that he's sticking with his plans to seek reelection.

Several other candidates are challenging Adams in the June 24 ranked-choice primary to lead New York City. The filing deadline is April 3, several weeks before Adams' trial is scheduled to start, though campaigns can begin gathering the required 3,750 voter signatures as early as Feb. 25.

Oakland, CA Mayor

Former Rep. Barbara Lee's new campaign for mayor has publicized endorsements from Rep. Lateefah Simon, who succeeded her in the House last week, and former Gov. Jerry Brown. Brown led Oakland from 1999 to 2007, and following his election as mayor, the once and future governor successfully promoted a ballot measure to strengthen the office's power.