What was driving these GOP registration gains? Well, a lot of things, but foremost among them, Hispanic voters. In 2020, new Hispanic registrants in Arizona were +22 Dem. By 2022 the GOP had halved that Democratic advantage, to make it +11 Dem. But the bottom truly fell out for Democrats in 2024, as they had an advantage of …
What was driving these GOP registration gains? Well, a lot of things, but foremost among them, Hispanic voters. In 2020, new Hispanic registrants in Arizona were +22 Dem. By 2022 the GOP had halved that Democratic advantage, to make it +11 Dem. But the bottom truly fell out for Democrats in 2024, as they had an advantage of only 2.5% among Hispanic new registrants.
This chart shows the party registration of new registrants Hispanic men under the age of 30 in Arizona for each election cycle. You will see that Dems had a 20 point margin advantage with this group in 2020, dropping to 7 points in 2022, and then flipping entirely to a 7 point GOP advantage in 2024.
What else accounts for the Dem drop-off in Arizona? Voter turnout was a big part of it. If we set the registration aside and just look at party registration shares for those who voted in each election, in 2020 the electorate was +4.7 GOP. In 2024 that surged to +9.2 GOP - a 4.5% improvement in electorate share for the GOP.
Thanks for this. While I'm not loving the Hispanic men under the age of 30 voter registration surge for the GOP, I don't know if that group will want to associate with the GOP in the longterm. Especially once they see stuff like tariffs, tax cuts and mass deportations hurt them. Gallego had a great interview in the NYTs that nailed it that both Hispanic men who are head of the households and young Hispanic men who can't move out of their parents houses feel powerless. That and the drop in voter turnout proves this was a super reactionary electorate. Going to be interested what their reaction will be in 2026.
Also worth pointing out that Hispanic men under 30 are probably way more culturally assimilated than their older brothers/cousins, to say nothing of their parents and grandparents generations
Arizona 2024:
What was driving these GOP registration gains? Well, a lot of things, but foremost among them, Hispanic voters. In 2020, new Hispanic registrants in Arizona were +22 Dem. By 2022 the GOP had halved that Democratic advantage, to make it +11 Dem. But the bottom truly fell out for Democrats in 2024, as they had an advantage of only 2.5% among Hispanic new registrants.
This chart shows the party registration of new registrants Hispanic men under the age of 30 in Arizona for each election cycle. You will see that Dems had a 20 point margin advantage with this group in 2020, dropping to 7 points in 2022, and then flipping entirely to a 7 point GOP advantage in 2024.
What else accounts for the Dem drop-off in Arizona? Voter turnout was a big part of it. If we set the registration aside and just look at party registration shares for those who voted in each election, in 2020 the electorate was +4.7 GOP. In 2024 that surged to +9.2 GOP - a 4.5% improvement in electorate share for the GOP.
https://tombonier.substack.com/p/lessons-from-arizona?r=9v0k3&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&triedRedirect=true
thanks for this
Thanks for this. While I'm not loving the Hispanic men under the age of 30 voter registration surge for the GOP, I don't know if that group will want to associate with the GOP in the longterm. Especially once they see stuff like tariffs, tax cuts and mass deportations hurt them. Gallego had a great interview in the NYTs that nailed it that both Hispanic men who are head of the households and young Hispanic men who can't move out of their parents houses feel powerless. That and the drop in voter turnout proves this was a super reactionary electorate. Going to be interested what their reaction will be in 2026.
Also worth pointing out that Hispanic men under 30 are probably way more culturally assimilated than their older brothers/cousins, to say nothing of their parents and grandparents generations