Utah’s invalidated congressional map (at left), and a new Republican-backed map, known as Map C (at right). Both are shaded according to the results of the 2024 presidential election. (credit: Dave’s Redistricting App).
Leading Off
UT Redistricting
As a Utah judge prepares to decide which congressional map the state should use next year, Republicans have launched a new plan to thwart anti-gerrymandering rules adopted by voters. Their gambit, however, may run afoul of the state constitution.
Last week, the state Republican Party announced it would seek to qualify a pair of measures for the ballot aimed at locking in the GOP’s 4-0 advantage in Utah’s congressional delegation.
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The first is a veto referendum that could pause, and ultimately repeal, the new map Republicans in the legislature passed earlier this month, known as Map C. The second is an “indirect” initiative that seeks to tee up a vote by the legislature to abolish the redistricting reform measure that voters passed at the ballot box in 2018, known as Proposition 4.
The GOP adopted Map C, which aims to preserve four districts that Republicans can win, after Judge Dianna Gibson struck down the state’s previous map as an illegal partisan gerrymander in August. In theory, should the referendum qualify for the ballot, that now-invalidated map would come back into use.
But even if Republicans succeed in obtaining the required 141,000 signatures by Nov. 15, it’s not clear what impact that might have. Administrators would have three weeks to review those signatures, but Gibson is likely to rule well before then. (The state’s top elections official, Lt. Gov. Deidre Henderson, previously informed the court that a new map would need to be in place by Nov. 10 to give administrators enough time to prepare for the 2026 elections.)
If Gibson were to approve the legislature’s adoption of Map C only to later see it suspended thanks to the GOP’s referendum, the state would still be left with illegal districts. To avoid that problem, Gibson could impose Map C herself, since a court-ordered map could not be subject to a veto referendum. This might all be moot, however, should Gibson decide that Map C does not pass muster.
The GOP’s proposed initiative may be even more fraught. Under this largely untested approach, Republicans would need to gather 70,000 signatures, also by Nov. 15, to set up a vote to repeal Proposition 4.
Crucially, though, the matter would not be referred to voters. Instead, the initiative would send the question of repeal to the Republican-dominated legislature, which has sought to undermine Proposition 4 at every turn and would jump at the chance to overturn it.
But as Quinn Yeargain, an expert in state constitutional law and a contributor at The Downballot, points out, Utah’s rules for indirect initiatives may themselves violate the state constitution.
That constitution explicitly establishes two ways for legislation to be passed: through the legislature, with approval from the governor (or over their veto); and by the traditional ballot initiative process, in which voters ultimately decide.
It does not, however, say anything about indirect initiatives. These are permitted in a handful of states, but always with express constitutional authorization. In Utah, indirect initiatives are solely statutory in nature, but Yeargain says that “it would be stunning to me if the legislature could be authorized by the constitution to statutorily establish an alternative legislative process.”
Even if indirect initiatives are allowed, though, Yeargain concludes that there’s “a really strong argument that the power of the people to propose *and approve* a statute themselves should prevail over the power of the people to propose that the *legislature* consider a statute.”
Reformers are advancing an argument along those lines in a new filing before Gibson last week. They point out that because Gibson previously ruled that a 2020 attempt by Republican lawmakers to repeal Proposition 4 was unconstitutional, any effort to repeal it via indirect initiative must also be unconstitutional. They ask that Gibson block Henderson from accepting the GOP’s application to proceed with their initiative.
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House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has held conversations with Maryland Democrats regarding a new congressional map, reports NBC, though it doesn’t appear that leaders are preparing to take action.
A spokesperson for Gov. Wes Moore would say only that “all options are on the table”—the exact same phrase Moore has been using for at least two months. Since then, Republicans in Texas and Missouri have passed new gerrymanders targeting six Democratic-held districts, and their counterparts in other red states are moving forward with similar plans.
Senate
ME-Sen
Oyster farmer Graham Platner’s political director quit on Friday following a further series of revelations about the candidate’s social media history.
Former state Rep. Genevieve McDonald said in a resignation letter obtained by the Bangor Daily News that Platner’s comments “were not known to me when I agreed to join the campaign, and they are not words or values I can stand behind in a candidate.”
”While I am empathetic to Graham’s experiences and respect his personal journey and growth, I cannot overlook the volume and nature of his past comments, many of which were made as an adult, not as a young man,” she added.
Following a CNN report on Thursday morning that surfaced posts from Platner in which he called himself a “communist,” said that “all” cops are “bastards,” and described rural Americans as racist and stupid, several other outlets unearthed more messages in a similar vein.
“Why don’t black people tip? I work as a bartender and it always amazes me how solid this stereotype is. Every now and again a black patron will leave a 15-20% tip, but usually it [is] between 0-5%. There’s got to be a reason behind it, what is it?”
“In today’s current climate, when every whisper of a misplaced hand brings down a feature length film, anyone who actually thinks the military is purposefully covering up rape to save the career of some god damn [captain], is clearly both an idiot and junior enough in rank or life experience to think it matters.”
If people “expect to fight fascism without a good semi-automatic rifle, they ought to do some reading of history.”
Platner responded to the latest revelations by sharing a five-minute video on Friday evening in which he apologized for his remarks. He said he posted his comments at a time when he felt “very disillusioned, very alienated, and very isolated” after leaving the Army in 2012, an experience he said left him suffering from PTSD and depression.
However, he described at length what he called his “journey,” saying that around four to five years ago, after moving back to his hometown, his life began to change.
“I’d found community. I’d started a business. I’d met someone to fall in love with,” he said. “I’d been able to really begin to feel connected again. And not only did it let me feel connected, it also gave me a lot of hope.”
“I was in different places that I’m not in now,” he concluded, asking that voters not judge him “on the dumbest thing I ever wrote on the internet” but instead “on the person I am today.”
Governors
NJ-Gov, VA-Gov
At his new site, FiftyPlusOne, G. Elliott Morris has unveiled new interactive poll charts that aggregate data for next month’s gubernatorial elections, showing a more optimistic picture for Democrats in both states than other polling averages have.
In Virginia, Democrat Abigail Spanberger holds a 52-42 lead on Republican Winsome Earle-Sears, while in New Jersey, Democrat Mikie Sherrill is up 49-43 on Republican Jack Ciattarelli.
Morris explains that other aggregators fail to properly adjust for the well-known biases that polls from partisan sources typically display—namely, that Republican polls tend to be more favorable for Republican candidates, and Democratic polls for Democratic candidates. (He also addresses the more prosaic issue of “house effects”—the quirks inherent to every pollster’s methods “that can push their data away from the polling average.”)
Given the relatively large volume of GOP polling compared to the amount of data coming from Democratic firms, it’s easy for aggregates that don’t take this issue into account to yield results that are too rosy for Republicans.
The two newest polls in New Jersey, it so happens, neatly bookend Morris’ current average: A Fox News survey puts Sherril ahead 50-45, while Fairleigh Dickinson University has her in front 52-45.
TX-Sen, TX-Gov
Former San Antonio Mayor Ron Nirenberg plans to challenge Bexar County Judge Peter Sakai in next year’s Democratic primary, reports the San Antonio Express-News, a decision that would take him out of the running for Senate or governor. The paper says that Nirenberg will launch a campaign after local elections on Nov. 4.
SC-Gov
Democratic state Rep. Jermaine Johnson, who’s been weighing a run for South Carolina’s open governorship, looks set to announce a bid on Oct. 28, when his campaign says it will make a “special announcement.”
Democratic State Sen. Scott Wiener, who’s long been preparing for the day that Nancy Pelosi decides to retire, has decided to run in next year’s top-two primary, according to the San Francisco Standard.
Wiener did not dispute the report, telling the Standard, “I’ve been preparing and raising money for whenever the race starts.” It could start very soon: The outlet said that an announcement is “expected” this week.
Pelosi has yet to announce her plans and could opt to call it a career. However, the speaker emerita already faces a challenge from wealthy software engineer Saikat Chakrabarti, a former chief of staff to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who launched a bid in February. That campaign, says the Standard, “has been a motivating factor in Wiener’s decision to run.”
IL-08
Sen. Tammy Duckworth has endorsed former Rep. Melissa Bean in the crowded Democratic primary for Illinois’ 8th District.
Bean represented a prior version of the district for three terms before losing to tea partier Joe Walsh in the 2010 GOP wave. Walsh, who is now a Democrat, was ousted two years later by Duckworth after Democrats in the legislature made the 8th bluer.
Mayors & County Leaders
New York, NY Mayor
Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) for Fox News: Zohran Mamdani (D): 52, Andrew Cuomo (I): 28, Curtis Sliwa (R): 14. In Fox’s prior poll in September, conducted before Mayor Eric Adams dropped out, Mamdani led Cuomo 47-29, with Sliwa at 11.
Grab Bag
Where Are They Now?
On Friday, Donald Trump commuted the prison sentence of disgraced former Rep. George Santos, who served less than three months of the seven-year term he received in April after pleading guilty to a wide array of fraud and theft charges. Santos was immediately freed from prison. Trump’s commutation also specified that Santos need no longer pay $374,000 in restitution that was part of his sentence.
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Good morning all, haven’t commented much on here but commented a lot on the old DKE.
I’m a Gen Z democrat running for County Council in Anne Arundel County Maryland to flip a competitive seat from red to blue in the ’26 midterms. I would love to have your support in this campaign, anything you can contribute would be greatly appreciated. While I’m going to need to raise a lot of money, a dollar here goes 10x further or more than a congressional race.
And if you happen to be in the area please buy a ticket to my campaign launch party 11/17!
Website: votespencerjones.com
Actblue/launch ticket: actblue.com/donate/launchspencer
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