Morning Digest: Spending from top GOP House groups draws almost even with Democratic counterparts

But there's more to the picture than just independent expenditures from the "Big Four"

Florida Democrat Whitney Fox (at right), who is seeking the 13th Congressional District. Top groups have yet to spend in her race, but a smaller super PAC is boosting her. (Credit: Whitney Fox Facebook)

Leading Off

Independent Expenditures

With just four weeks to go before Election Day, a huge burst of spending from the Congressional Leadership Fund has helped the top two Republican groups draw almost even with their Democratic counterparts in total outlays on House races, according to the latest update to The Downballot's independent expenditure tracker. But while this data covers a wide expanse of the House playing field, it doesn't tell the complete story.

CLF, which is closely linked to House GOP leaders, poured in more than $25.5 million over the past week, accounting for almost half of the $56 million the super PAC has spent on the general election so far. With their junior partners at the NRCC chipping in $6.5 million, the two biggest Republican outfits combined to put $32 million into 37 races across the country.

Democrats saw the opposite pattern, with their official party committee, the DCCC, spending $15.5 million compared to $11 million for the House Majority PAC, their leadership-connected super PAC. The two Democratic organizations made outlays in 33 different districts.

Overall, though, Democrats retain a small spending edge of around $76 million to $72 million for the general election to date. That combined sum has been spread across 40 races, with exactly half held by Republicans and half by Democrats. But there's far more money invested in the House battlefield that our tracker doesn't account for.

Independent expenditures offer one key advantage for those who follow political campaigns: They must be reported within 48 hours—or within 24 hours in the last three weeks before an election. Other types of spending, by contrast, are tougher to track because they're reported less frequently.

For starters, that includes spending from the candidates themselves, which campaigns report only on a quarterly basis—though fortunately, we'll get a major update on that front in just a week, when new filings are due at the FEC. Given past trends this cycle, we can expect Democrats to maintain a sizable edge on that front.

Then there's the matter of hybrid ads, which allow party committees to spend unlimited sums on advertising in coordination with campaigns—albeit subject to more stringent content requirements. Such committees file with the FEC on a monthly basis, but even those reports don't give up their secrets easily, since they don't break down spending on a district-by-district basis. Independent expenditures, by contrast, must be accounted for at the district level.

Many other groups do engage in independent expenditures, not just the "Big Four" that we keep close tabs on. Given the small number of races in play, much of that spending overlaps closely with that of the DCCC, HMP, NRCC, and CLF (which are by far the largest outfits involved in House races).

But not all of it does. In Florida's 13th District, for instance, limited polling taken just before Labor Day showed Republican Rep. Anna Paulina Luna in an unexpectedly close race. The Big Four have yet to engage, but a group called WelcomePAC, which says it supports "moderate Democrats in conservative-leaning congressional districts," has spent about $300,000 on behalf of Democrat Whitney Fox.

Outside of the Big Four, the largest spender on House races is a super PAC called Fairshake, which is backed by the cryptocurrency industry. It's emerged as the fifth-largest group this cycle, putting about $17 million toward the general election so far. It's largely been involved in the same races as the heavyweights, but it's also helped out some incumbents on the bubble, like Democratic Rep. Angie Craig in Minnesota's 2nd District.

If you haven't yet, you can bookmark our spending tracker, which we update every week.

3Q Fundraising

• MO-Sen: Lucas Kunce (D): $8.3 million raised

• NM-Sen: Martin Heinrich (D-inc): $2.3 million raised

• IL-17: Eric Sorensen (D-inc): $1 million raised, $1.7 million cash on hand

• NY-17: Mondaire Jones (D): $2.9 million raised, $2.3 million cash on hand

• OR-05: Janelle Bynum (D): $3.4 million raised

• PA-07: Susan Wild (D-inc): $2.5 million raised

• WI-03: Rebecca Cooke (D): $2.75 million raised

Senate

OH-Sen

WinSenate, an affiliate of the Senate Majority PAC, is airing the first ad we've seen making use of Republican Bernie Moreno's instantly infamous musings that abortion isn't "an issue" for women "past 50." 

The spot, which consists solely of footage of Moreno speaking, opens with him declaring, "There's a lot of suburban women and they're like, 'Listen, abortion is it. If I can't have an abortion in this country whenever I want, I will vote for anybody else,'" says Moreno. "Okay. It's a little crazy, by the way, but—especially for women that are like past 50."

The ad goes on to play a recording of Moreno at a different event musing, "You don’t get pregnant because you were at the checkout line at Kroger. … You do have to take personal responsibility." The commercial, which does not mention Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, ends with the Republican saying, "Abortion is a heinous crime."

Governors

IN-Gov

So much for that: Republican Mike Braun's falsely edited ad attacking Democrat Jennifer McCormick is still running, reports Politico's Adam Wren—without the disclaimer required by state law.

That law also allows McCormick to sue Braun for airing his ad, which manipulates a photo of McCormick supporters to show them holding signs that say "No Gas Stoves," without an on-screen disclaimer explaining that it's been digitally altered. (In real life, the placards simply bore McCormick's name.) Wren reported last week that Braun had pulled that particular version of the ad, but evidently, it's back in the rotation.

McCormick has not yet taken legal action, but she may prefer to focus her energies on the campaign trail. After two new polls showed her in a surprisingly close race with Braun, the Democratic Governors Association just sent $600,000 her way, a few days after the Republican Governors Association gave $250,000 to Braun—a strong signal that both sides believe the polling is on to something.

House

VA-07

Republican Derrick Anderson has publicized an internal poll from Ragnar Research Partners that shows him narrowly trailing Democrat Eugene Vindman 43-42 in Virginia's 7th District—a result that's a hair worse for him than the 43-43 deadlock the firm found in mid-September.

But that small drop actually obscures how much less promising this new survey is for Anderson. Just weeks ago, in his earlier poll, Kamala Harris led Donald Trump 51-43. Now the two are tied at 47 apiece, meaning that Trump somehow gained 8 points while, at the very same time, Anderson lost ground.

The pollster's memo, which was first shared by the National Journal's James Downs, doesn't explain why Anderson decided to release this survey. Notably, he did not release any presidential data with his earlier poll, so it's not clear why he'd do so now—and backfill missing numbers that show his position weakening.

Ragnar doesn't speculate what could have caused such a large and quick shift to the right in this constituency, which Joe Biden took 53-45 in 2020. And we haven't seen any numbers from other pollsters for the race to succeed Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger, who is leaving Congress to focus on her 2025 bid for governor.

But Anderson may have felt compelled to show that he's withstanding a recent story that's given the Republican the wrong kind of exposure, both in his district and far outside of Northern Virginia.

The New York Times reported late last month that Anderson, who is engaged and does not have children, had distributed campaign footage of him seated "at the dinner table in a family-like tableau" with a woman and her three daughters—none of whom are part of his family. Instead, the story says that these four are "the wife and children of a longtime friend."

Anderson's critics, including more than a few comedians, were quick to make fun of him—and his spokesperson's explanation that the video just showed him "with female supporters and their kids." At a debate last week, Vindman piled on, too.

"If you are going to lie about something as fundamental, portray yourself as a family man so people like you, how can you be trusted on more serious topics?" the Democrat asked. Anderson angrily responded, "He talks about focusing on a picture that I took with supporters in the district?"

Ragnar's memo does not allude to any of this, though it does insist, "Despite Vindman's $2.2 million on-slaught of attacks on Anderson, the ballot hasn't changed and Anderson's image with voters has actually improved." Yes, it says "on-slaught," and no, it does not explain why Anderson's standing has stagnated while Trump's has improved.

Ballot Measures

AZ Ballot

The Arizona-based pollster HighGround Public Affairs, working on behalf of the TV network Arizona’s Family, finds a 58-25 majority in favor of a Republican-backed ballot measure that would impose harsh penalties on undocumented immigrants. The large lead for Proposition 314 comes at the same time that respondents favor Kamala Harris 48-45.

The GOP plan would make illegally crossing the border from Mexico a state crime, enabling state judges to order deportations. In addition, undocumented immigrants who sell fentanyl that results in someone's death or who use fraudulent documents to obtain work authorization or public benefits could face new felony charges.

Longstanding Supreme Court precedents give the federal government primacy when it comes to setting immigration laws. However, Republicans in other states have recently begun passing laws similar to the Arizona proposal in the hopes that the Supreme Court's far-right supermajority will reverse those earlier cases. Notably, Proposition 314 contains a clause saying that it would only go into effect if the courts sign off on a nearly identical bill out of Texas.

Proposition 314 is one of 11 measures that the GOP legislature added to the ballot to circumvent Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs' veto pen. (The only two citizen-backed initiatives are an abortion rights amendment and a plan to end partisan primaries.) However, while Republicans like House Speaker Ben Toma have expressed concern that exhausted Arizonans will just vote "no" on everything, Proposition 314's opponents also worry that they'll have a hard time getting their message out.

Enrique Davis Mazlum, who leads the state branch of the Latino civil rights group UnidosUS, recently explained his fears in an interview with the Arizona Republic's Rafael Carranza. "Even if I didn't read the fine print, the small letters, go inside the bill, if I would see border security, of course, I'm in favor of border security and, of course, I'm in favor of kids not dying because of fentanyl, so I would vote yes if I could vote, right?" But, Davis Mazlum argued, Proposition 314 is actually "none of that."

The measure's critics, though, hope there's still time to change public opinion. Their ranks include the state's Catholic bishops, who published a letter last month predicting that a win for Proposition 314 would have significant unintended consequences.

"In particular, by having state and local law enforcement responsible for enforcing what should be the role of federal immigration authorities, many crime victims and witnesses will be afraid to go to law enforcement and report crimes," the bishops wrote. "As a result, dangerous criminals will not be apprehended, and public safety will be threatened."

FL Ballot

Gov. Ron DeSantis' administration has taken takedown notices to the next level, threatening a Florida TV station with criminal prosecution if it continues to air an ad in support of an abortion rights amendment on the November ballot.

The Florida Department of Health, in a letter obtained by journalist Jason Garcia, warned WFLA-TV that the ad in question, which was created by the main group backing the amendment, conveys allegedly false information about abortion and therefore constitutes a "sanitary nuisance" that could lead to criminal sanction for anyone who runs it.

The ad's sponsor, Floridians Protecting Freedom, fired back with a letter to WFLA, an NBC affiliate in the Tampa area, saying that the Health Department's missive "reflects an unconstitutional attempt to coerce the station into censoring protected speech" and defending its own ad as "true."

Slate's Mark Joseph Stern, noting that the law in question is aimed at regulating "septic tanks and slaughterhouses," deemed the department's threats "absurd on several levels." WFLA does not appear to have publicly commented on the matter.

DeSantis' administration has engaged in a multi-front assault on the abortion amendment, using taxpayer funds to send "election police" to the homes of voters who signed petitions to put the measure on the ballot and to air TV ads directing viewers to an anti-amendment website—also created by the state. A state court recently rejected a lawsuit brought by the ACLU challenging some of these expenditures.

Poll Pile

• AZ-Sen: RMG Research for the Napolitan Institute: Ruben Gallego (D): 52, Kari Lake (R): 42 (50-46 Trump)

• AZ-Sen: Redfield & Wilton Strategies for The Telegraph: Gallego (D): 48, Lake (R): 42 (48-47 Trump) (Mid-Sept.: 46-41 Gallego)

• FL-Sen: Redfield & Wilton: Rick Scott (R-inc): 44, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D): 41 (49-45 Trump) (Mid-Sept.: 45-41 Scott)

• MI-Sen: Redfield & Wilton: Elissa Slotkin (D): 45, Mike Rogers (R): 39 (48-46 Harris) (Mid-Sept.: 46-37 Slotkin)

• MN-Sen: Redfield & Wilton: Amy Klobuchar (D-inc): 46, Royce White (R): 38 (51-43 Harris) (Mid-Sept.: 42-34 Klobuchar)

• NV-Sen: Redfield & Wilton: Jacky Rosen (D-inc): 48, Sam Brown (R): 41 (48-47 Harris) (Mid-Sept.: 47-38 Rosen)

• VA-Sen: Christopher Newport University: Tim Kaine (D-inc): 55, Hung Cao (R): 35 (52-41 Harris)

• WI-Sen: Redfield & Wilton: Tammy Baldwin (D-inc): 47, Eric Hovde (R): 42 (47-46 Harris) (Mid-Sept.: 46-41 Baldwin)

• NC-Gov: Redfield & Wilton: Josh Stein (D): 46, Mark Robinson (R): 36 (47-45 Trump) (Early Sept.: 42-33 Stein)

• NY-01: Cygnal (R) for the Congressional Leadership Fund: Nick LaLota (R-inc): 49, John Avlon (D): 40

• NY-17: Emerson College for PIX11 and The Hill: Mike Lawler (R-inc): 45, Mondaire Jones (D): 44, Anthony Frascone (WFP): 3 (49-49 presidential tie)

• NY-18: Emerson: Pat Ryan (D-inc): 48, Alison Esposito (R): 43 (48-47 Trump)

• WA-03: Public Policy Polling (D) for Northwest Progressive Institute: Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-inc): 46, Joe Kent (R): 46 (50-45 Trump) (June: 46-45 Kent)

• AZ Ballot: HighGround Public Affairs for KTVK/KPHO: Abortion amendment: Yes: 59, No: 27 (48-45 Harris)

• MO Ballot: Remington Research Group (R) for the Missouri Scout: Abortion amendment: Yes: 46: No: 33

Ad Roundup

• MI-Sen: Americans for Prosperity - anti-Elissa Slotkin (D); AFP - pro-Mike Rogers (R)

• MT-Sen: Tim Sheehy (R) and the NRSC - anti-Jon Tester (D-inc); AFP - anti-Tester (here, here, and here)

• NE-Sen-A: Heartland Resurgence Action - anti-Dan Osborn (I)

• NV-Sen: Jacky Rosen (D-inc); VoteVets - pro-Rosen; Sam Brown (R)

• OH-Sen: Bernie Moreno (R) and the NRSC - anti-Sherrod Brown (D-inc); AFP - pro-Moreno (here and here); AFP - anti-Brown; American Crossroads - anti-Brown

• PA-Sen: Dave McCormick (R) and the NRSC - anti-Bob Casey (D-inc); AFP - anti-Casey (here and here); AFP - pro-McCormick

• TX-Sen: Ted Cruz (R-inc) - anti-Colin Allred (D) (here, here, and here); Cruz

• VA-Sen: Tim Kaine (D-inc)

• WI-Sen: Eric Hovde (R) and the NRSC - anti-Tammy Baldwin (D-inc); AFP - anti-Baldwin

• WA-Gov: Bob Ferguson (D)

• AZ-01: Congressional Leadership Fund - anti-Amish Shah (D)

• CA-13: House Majority PAC - anti-John Duarte (R-inc); CLF - anti-Adam Gray (D)

• CA-22: CLF - anti-Rudy Salas (D)

• IA-01: CLF - anti-Christina Bohannan (D)

• IA-03: CLF - anti-Lanon Baccam (D)

• KS-03: Sharice Davids (D-inc)

• ME-02: CLF - anti-Jared Golden (D-inc)

• MI-07: Tom Barrett (R) - anti-Curtis Hertel (D)

• MN-02: Angie Craig (D-inc) - anti-Joe Teirab (R)

• NC-01: CLF - anti-Don Davis (D-inc)

• NE-02: Don Bacon (R-inc) - anti-Tony Vargas (D); NRCC - anti-Vargas; CLF - anti-Vargas

• NM-02: CLF - anti-Gabe Vazquez (D-inc)

• NY-17: Mondaire Jones (D) - anti-Mike Lawler (R-inc) (here, here, and here)

• NY-22: Brandon Williams (R-inc) and the NRCC; CLF - anti-John Mannion (D); Mannion 

• OH-13: CLF - anti-Emilia Sykes (D-inc)

• OR-05: CLF - anti-Janelle Bynum

• TN-07: Megan Barry (D) - anti-Mark Green (R-inc)

• VA-02: Jen Kiggans (R-inc)

• KY Ballot: Protect Our Schools - anti-state funding for private schools amendment

• OH Ballot: Citizens Not Politicians - pro-redistricting amendment (here and here)

• San Francisco, CA Mayor: Dan Lurie