Morning Digest: A 'cash crunch' forces Senate Republicans to abandon traditional ads

Crazy ad rates and a huge Democratic cash advantage have the GOP scrambling

NRSC and Kari Lake hybrid spot in Arizona against Kamala Harris and Ruben Gallego (credit: NRSC and Lake spot)

Leading Off

NRSC

The National Republican Senatorial Committee has canceled all of its planned independent expenditures across the country and will instead use the money to finance "hybrid" ads with its candidates, reports Politico's Ally Mutnick. The move, she explains is due to a "cash crunch" Republicans are facing thanks to superior fundraising by Democratic candidates.

Thanks to that deficit, the NRSC's shift has been underway for months. Only the Senate races in Michigan and Nevada are still seeing traditional independent expenditures from the committee, and these, too, will soon come to an end.

Hybrid commercials, as we've detailed, allow outside spenders to split the cost of advertising with the campaign they're boosting and take advantage of federal rules requiring stations to charge lower rates to candidates rather than the higher rates third-party groups face.

Party committees and super PACs can therefore get more bang for their buck, especially in media markets where an influx of political ads has caused the cost of ad time to skyrocket. 

Unnamed Republicans tell Mutnick that one such market is Missoula, Montana, where outside groups now need to pay an astonishing 25 times as much as a candidate would. Those same sources also relay that, had the NRSC continued to air ads against Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen in Nevada, it would need to pay a rate 10 times greater than the one its nominee, Sam Brown, is getting.

There's a drawback, though. Hybrid ads are subject to more stringent content requirements than other commercials. Most notably, such ads are required to reference a political party writ large, as opposed to just a single candidate. These requirements, Mutnick notes, can make these spots "clunky and difficult to design."

That may not be much of a concern in red states like Montana or Ohio where a message broadly attacking Kamala Harris and the Democratic Party will likely be popular. However, it can be more of an impediment in swing seats where the GOP candidates need to win over at least some voters open to backing Harris.

It's an especially serious obstacle in dark blue Maryland where Republican Larry Hogan is doing whatever he can to distance himself from Donald Trump and his allies. However, the NRSC may not feel a need to invest in Maryland because a super PAC funded in part by conservative megadonor Ken Griffin is spending huge amounts on independent expenditures, and those ads are under no obligation to mention the rest of the GOP. 

The Downballot

Disastrous GOP ad signals a competitive race in ... Indiana

Asian Americans are an often untapped constituency that could make or break close many elections up and down the ballot. This week on The Downballot podcast, we're speaking with Shekar Narasimhan, the founder of the AAPI Victory Fund, who explains how his organization motivates voters and helps elect progressive Asian American, Pacific Islander, and Native Hawaiian candidates to office. Education and immigration are top issues throughout the diverse AAPI community, where a robocall in a native language—the Victory Fund can translate into more than a dozen—can go a long way.

Meanwhile, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard dive into a most unexpected contest: the race for Indiana's open governorship, which shot onto the radar this week thanks to a disastrous GOP campaign ad and some shockingly close polling. The Davids also check in on the Senate races in Texas and Florida, another pair of red states where Democrats are making a late move to expand the battlefield in the hopes of retaining their slim majority.

The Downballot podcast comes out every Thursday morning everywhere you listen to podcasts. Subscribe right here to make sure you never miss an episode!

3Q Fundraising

• MI-Sen: Elissa Slotkin (D): $18 million raised

• OH-Sen: Sherrod Brown (D-inc): $30.6 million

• NJ-07: Sue Altman (D): $2.1 million raised 

• NY-18: Pat Ryan (D-inc): $2.1 million raised

• PA-10: Janelle Stelson (D): $2.7 million raised 

Senate

WI-Sen

Sen. Tammy Baldwin secured the support of the Wisconsin Farm Bureau Federation on Wednesday, which makes her the first statewide Democratic candidate to win its endorsement in more than two decades, according to the Associated Press' Scott Bauer.

Governors

IN-Gov

Republican Mike Braun has finally stopped airing a manipulated ad that falsely showed supporters of Democrat Jennifer McCormick with signs reading "No Gas Stoves!" Instead, Braun's latest revision replaces that photoshopped image with a version of the actual photo—in which McCormick's backers hold placards bearing her name—stamped with on-screen text that says "Ban Gas Stoves."

The ad Braun first launched on Monday failed to include a disclaimer saying it had been digitally altered, as required by a new state law cracking down on deepfakes. He then released a version with a disclaimer, but the original disclaimer-free spot continued to air.

A spokesperson for McCormick did not rule out the possibility of legal action over the absence of a disclaimer, telling WISH-TV's Garrett Bergquist that "all options are on the table."

But disclaimer or no, the spot is still untrue: McCormick has repeatedly said she does not support banning gas stoves.

Braun's campaign has cited McCormick's call for Indiana to join the U.S. Climate Alliance, a coalition of governors working to address climate change, as supporting its position, claiming in a statement that the group "has called for banning gas stoves."

A spokesperson for the organization, however, told 21Alive's Corryn Brock that Braun's assertion was "just plain false."

House

CO-08

A new survey from Emerson College finds a 44-44 tie between freshman Democratic Rep. Yadira Caraveo and Republican Gabe Evans in the first poll we've seen of the contest for Colorado's 8th District since the spring.

The poll, which was conducted for The Hill, FOX31, and KDVR, did not include presidential numbers for this seat, which includes the northern Denver suburbs and the Greeley area. Joe Biden prevailed 51-46 in the territory that's now represented by Caraveo. (Colorado gained an eighth congressional district last cycle following the most recent census.)

If Evans is to beat the Centennial State's first Latina congresswoman, though, he'll likely need to do it without much help from the Colorado Republican Party. A state judge last week invalidated an August vote by the party's central committee to oust and replace Dave Williams, whose tenure as chair has been defined by infighting and homophobic attacks that even made many Republicans blanch. The Colorado Sun says that many campaigns refuse to work with Williams, whose term lasts until March.

WI-03

The pro-GOP Congressional Leadership Fund has released a survey from Public Opinion Strategies that shows its candidate, freshman Rep. Derrick Van Orden, leading Democrat Rebecca Cooke 49-44 in Wisconsin's 3rd District. This poll was publicized several weeks after CLF's Democratic counterparts at the House Majority PAC showcased an internal from GBAO finding Cooke ahead 49-47. We have not seen any independent numbers here.

Public Opinion Strategies' memo, which misspelled the congressman's first name as "Derek" three times, also says that respondents favor Donald Trump 51-45. That would represent a small improvement from Trump's 51-47 victory here four years ago in this southwestern Wisconsin constituency. HMP did not include presidential numbers in its release.

Ballot Measures

CO Ballot

The campaign to pass an amendment to expand abortion rights in Colorado enjoys a staggering financial advantage over its opponents, Colorado Politics' Marianne Goodland reports. Coloradans for Protecting Reproductive Freedom has raised more than $8 million, with more than a quarter of that coming over the last month. The four groups trying to beat Amendment 79, by contrast, have taken in just over $200,000 altogether.

Amendment 79 would both safeguard Colorado's existing protections for abortion access and overturn a 1984 amendment that bans public funding for the procedure. The amendment needs at least 55% of the vote to pass.

Poll Pile

• AZ-Sen: Benenson Strategy Group (D) and (R) GS Strategy Group for the Cook Political Report: Ruben Gallego (D): 54, Kari Lake (R): 41 (50-47 Harris) (Aug.: 51-42 Gallego)

• MI-Sen: BSG and GS: Elissa Slotkin (D): 50, Mike Rogers (R): 46 (49-46 Harris) (Aug.: 50-42 Slotkin)

• NE-Sen-A: The Bullfinch Group (R) for The Independent Center: Dan Osborn (I): 47, Deb Fischer (R-inc): 42 (53-42 Trump)

• NV-Sen: BSG and GS: Jacky Rosen (D-inc): 53, Sam Brown (R): 40 (48-47 Harris) (Aug.: 54-36 Rosen)

• PA-Sen: BSG and GS: Bob Casey (D-inc): 52, Dave McCormick (R): 45 (49-47 Harris) (Aug.: 53-40 Casey)

• TX-Sen: RMG Research for the Napolitan Institute: Ted Cruz (R-inc): 50, Colin Allred (D): 47 (53-46 Trump)

• WI-Sen: BSG and GS: Tammy Baldwin (D-inc): 49, Eric Hovde (R): 47 (48-46 Harris) (Aug.: 50-43 Baldwin)

• WI-Sen: Marquette Law: Baldwin (D-inc): 51, Hovde (R): 45 (49-44 Harris) (Sept.: 51-45 Baldwin)

• NC-Gov: BSG and GS: Josh Stein (D): 59, Mark Robinson (R): 35 (49-46 Harris) (May.: 37-37 gubernatorial tie)

Ad Roundup

• AZ-Sen: Kari Lake (R) and the NRSC - anti-Ruben Gallego (D)

• FL-Sen: Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) - anti-Rick Scott (R-inc)

• MD-Sen: WinSenate (Senate Majority PAC affiliate) - anti-Larry Hogan (R)

• MT-Sen: Jon Tester (D-inc) (here, here, and here); Tim Sheehy (R) - anti-Tester

• PA-Sen: Senate Leadership Fund - anti-Bob Casey (D-inc)

• TX-Sen: Colin Allred (D)

• AZ-06: Kirsten Engel (D) - anti-Juan Ciscomani (R-inc) (in English and Spanish)

• CA-13: John Duarte (R-inc)

• CO-08: Environmental Defense Fund - anti-Gabe Evans (R)

• IA-03: Zach Nunn (R-inc) and the NRCC - anti-Lanon Baccam (D); Baccam - anti-Nunn

• IL-17: Joe McGraw (R) - anti-Eric Sorensen (D-inc)

• MI-08: Paul Junge (R) - anti-Kristen McDonald Rivet (D); CLF - anti-McDonald Rivet

• NJ-07: Congressional Leadership Fund - anti-Sue Altman (D)

• NM-02: CLF - anti-Gabe Vasquez (D-inc) (in Spanish)

• NV-03: Susie Lee (D-inc) and the DCCC - anti-Drew Johnson (R)

• NY-04: CLF - anti-Laura Gillen (D); NRCC - anti-Gillen

• NY-17: CLF - anti-Mondaire Jones (D)

• NY-19: Marc Molinaro (R-inc)

• OH-09: Marcy Kaptur (D-inc) - anti-Derek Merrin (R)

• PA-08: CLF - anti-Matt Cartwright (D-inc)

• PA-10: Janelle Stelson (D) - anti-Scott Perry (R-inc) (here, here, here, here, and here); Defend The Vote, democracyFirst PAC, and EDF - anti-Perry ($1.1 million buy)

• VA-02: Missy Cotter Smasal (D) - anti-Jen Kiggans (R-inc)

• VA-07: CLF - pro-Derrick Anderson (R) and anti-Eugene Vindman (D)

• AZ Ballot: Arizona for Abortion Access - pro-abortion amendment (part of $15 million buy)

• FL Ballot: Smart & Safe Florida - pro-marijuana amendment

• FL Ballot: Vote No on Amendment 4 - anti-abortion amendment (here and here)

• NC-AG: Jeff Jackson (D)