Morning Digest: New ad shows Nebraskans how to complete ballots to restore abortion rights
They have to vote against one amendment and for another
Leading Off
NE Ballot
Protect Our Rights, the main group behind an abortion rights amendment in Nebraska, is using its opening ad to tell voters it "takes two votes" to undo the state's current 12-week ban: a vote first against a rival plan to enshrine the current law, and then a vote in support of the pro-choice measure.
But as the ad highlights, the two amendments aren't located next to one another on the ballot. Rather, the anti-abortion Initiative 434, which would leave open the door for lawmakers to pass more restrictive bans, is listed first.
It's then followed by four unrelated questions on topics including paid sick leave and medical marijuana. Only then are votes presented with the sixth and final question, Initiative 439, which would guarantee the right to an abortion until fetal viability.
Protect Our Rights needs to remind voters to reject Initiative 434 before backing Initiative 439 because, if they both win, the amendment with the highest vote total would become law regarding any conflicting provisions.
Importantly, though, the two measures don't overlap completely. As state constitutional law expert Quinn Yeargain recently explained, Initiative 434 only prohibits abortion after the first trimester; it doesn't address the first 13 weeks of pregnancy at all. Therefore, if both amendments pass but Initiative 434 earns more votes, Initiative 439 would still prohibit the legislature from imposing bans during the first trimester.
Passage of both measures, as counterintuitive as such an outcome might seem, is possible: A SurveyUSA poll conducted just before Labor Day for the election analysis site Split Ticket found a 56-29 majority in support of the anti-abortion amendment, while a smaller 45-35 plurality favored the pro-abortion plan.
As Yeargain noted, though, Republicans have dropped hints that Gov. Jim Pillen would recognize only Initiative 434 in such a scenario by arguing it completely blots out Initiative 439, despite their patchy overlap. It's not clear whether Pillen even has the power to make such a determination, but should such an event come to pass, it would prompt an almost certain lawsuit.
Protect Our Rights, though, is hoping its ad campaign will help avoid any possible conflict by persuading voters to vote against Initiative 434 before marking "yes" for Initiative 439.
"This combination ends the current government ban," says the narrator, who adds that such an outcome also "lets women and families make their own personal decisions, and allows doctors to protect a woman's health."
3Q Fundraising
The third fundraising quarter of 2024 came to an end on Monday evening, but while federal candidates have until Oct. 15 to file new finance reports with the FEC, eager campaigns are releasing their numbers early. So far, all the figures we've seen have come from Democrats, who are raising enormous seven-figure sums that, just a few years ago, would have been unthinkable in a House race.
After the filing deadline, we'll bring you charts for every House and Senate candidate running in the November elections.
CA-45: Derek Tran (D): $2 million raised
CA-47: Dave Min (D): $2 million raised
IA-01: Christina Bohannan (D): $1.87 million raised
IA-03: Lanon Baccam (D): $1.7 million raised
Senate
MI-Sen
The conservative super PAC Great Lakes Conservative Fund has booked an additional $8 million to help Republican Mike Rogers defeat Democrat Elissa Slotkin in the race for Michigan's open Senate seat, reports Axios' Stephen Neukam. The outfit is funded in part by Republican megadonors Ken Griffin and Stephen Schwarzman.
Governors
IN-Gov
Republican Mike Braun is still airing an ad that falsely shows backers of Democrat Jennifer McCormick holding signs that read "No Gas Stoves" without the disclaimer required by a new Indiana law, Politico's Adam Wren reported on Tuesday.
After Wren first flagged the manipulated image on Monday, Braun began circulating a new version with on-screen text reading, "Elements of this media have been digitally altered or artificially generated." In the actual photo, taken last year by Greg Swiercz for the South Bend Tribune, McCormick is flanked by supporters holding placards that bear her name—and say nothing about stoves—during her campaign kickoff.
Braun claimed in a statement on Monday afternoon that the disclaimer-free version was "mistakenly delivered to TV stations and is being replaced with the correct version," but as Wren's new reporting indicates, the original ad is still in circulation.
That could leave Braun open to a lawsuit. A law passed earlier this year by Indiana's Republican-run legislature to crack down on deepfakes requires that a disclaimer continuously appear in any digitally altered ads. It also expressly allows victims to sue if such a disclaimer is absent.
And as Wren notes, McCormick might not be the only potential plaintiff. Democratic state Rep. Maureen Bauer, who is also on the ballot this year, is among those in the falsely edited photo. The broadly written anti-deepfake law permits any "candidate depicted in fabricated media" without the necessary disclaimer to bring a lawsuit.
On Monday afternoon, without directly referencing Braun's ad, Bauer tweeted a reminder about the new law and said it "must be enforced to protect the public from lying politicians."
House
AZ-07
Democratic Rep. Raul Grijalva tells 13 News that he's decided not to seek reelection in 2026. The 76-year-old congressman, who is set to easily win a final term next month in Arizona's safely blue 7th District, told reporter Bud Foster, "I think 22 years is pretty good. It's a retirement age." Grijalva, who completed treatment for cancer in July, also said of his recovery, "We’re not far from being at that percentage where we think would make us effective, which would be 90 to 100%."
The 7th District, which contains most of Arizona's border with Mexico, favored Joe Biden 66-33 in 2020. There's certain to be plenty of interest from Democrats in succeeding Grijalva in this seat, a majority Latino constituency that includes much of the Tucson area. However, we'll wait until this year's elections are complete before we take a deep dive into what could be a busy race to replace the veteran congressman.
NH-01
Republican Russell Prescott and his allies at the NRCC released an internal poll from Cygnal on Monday that shows him trailing Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas by a 46-42 margin in New Hampshire's 1st District, a seat that GOP groups haven't spent any money to flip so far this cycle.
Cygnal's memo, which was first shared by the National Journal's James Downs, did not mention presidential numbers for a constituency that Joe Biden took 52-46. It instead says that the GOP's nominee for governor, former Sen. Kelly Ayotte, is defeating former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig 49-39 in the 1st District, which includes the Democratic candidate's geographic base.
Earlier this month, a pair of local schools, Saint Anselm College and the University of New Hampshire, respectively found Pappas ahead 50-38 and 52-35. Pappas' backers at the House Majority PAC signaled it was taking this race seriously in April when it booked $1.5 million in ad time, but it has yet to spend any of that. GOP outfits, by contrast, have yet to reserve, much less spend, anything to beat Pappas.
Ballot Measures
CO Ballot
Two prominent Colorado Democrats, Sen. John Hickenlooper and Denver Mayor Mike Johnston, have endorsed a ballot measure to institute a top-four primary system in the state. Democratic Gov. Jared Polis also came in support of Proposition 131 last month.
FL Ballot
A Florida court has rejected a lawsuit brought by supporters of an abortion rights amendment asking that it bar the state from disseminating false information about the amendment, concluding that plaintiffs lacked standing.
In an eight-page ruling, Circuit Judge Jonathan Sjostrom said that Floridians Protecting Freedom, the group behind Amendment 4, had failed to show a "direct and substantial interest" in seeking to stop the Florida Agency for Health Care Administration from airing TV and radio ads and hosting a website aimed at undermining the measure.
Sjostrom further opined that any challenge to the agency's actions would fail because "no person or entity has standing to litigate these issues in court during this campaign." The ACLU of Florida, which filed this suit, told the Florida Phoenix in a statement, "We will continue fighting to ensure that Floridians have the chance to vote on Amendment 4 based on facts, not fearmongering," but it did not say whether it would appeal.
Legislatures
PA State House
With Pennsylvania Democrats defending their razor-thin majority in the state House they unexpectedly won in 2022, the Philadelphia Inquirer's Gillian McGoldrick has a look at the crucial contests to watch across the state.
Democrats secured a 102-101 advantage in the chamber two years ago, which closely reflected the map's partisan split: According to VEST data from Dave's Redistricting App, Joe Biden carried 103 seats during his tight 2020 victory in Pennsylvania, while Donald Trump took the remaining 100.
Most of the battlegrounds, unsurprisingly, are in seats where the last presidential election was close, though some incumbents are competing on tougher turf.
One such Democrat is state Rep. Frank Burns, who is seeking a ninth term in a western Pennsylvania constituency that favored Trump by an enormous 64-35 spread. Burns, writes McGoldrick, is waging "a Trump-style campaign" to defend the 72nd District against Republican Amy Bradley, who is the head of the Johnstown area's Chamber of Commerce. Burns' style helped him secure reelection 55-45 in 2022, but Republicans hope things will be different in a presidential year.
Meanwhile, in the Philadelphia suburbs on the other side of the state, Republican state Rep. Craig Williams faces Democratic businesswoman Elizabeth Moro for the 160th District. This constituency, which includes parts of Delaware and Chester counties, supported Biden 53-46, but Williams won reelection 52-48 two years later.
Williams ran for attorney general earlier this cycle only to find himself in an ugly spat with the Republican Attorney Generals Association, which mocked him for "taking selfies in our office behind our logos." (RAGA had endorsed another contender, York County District Attorney Dave Sunday.)
But the Keystone State permits candidates to run for multiple offices at once, allowing Williams to win renomination to the legislature unopposed on the same day he was overwhelmingly losing statewide against Sunday.
The GOP, meanwhile, is defending a 28-22 majority in the state Senate, where only half of the seats are on the ballot each cycle. Democrats, as we wrote in the spring, would need to flip three seats to benefit from Lt. Gov. Austin Davis' tiebreaking vote, but they'd almost certainly need to wait another two years before they could aim for a majority.
An even split, though, wouldn't give Davis' party complete control of the Senate because the state constitution places limits on when and how the lieutenant governor can resolve deadlocks.
POLL PILE
AZ-Sen: Emerson College for RealClearWorld: Ruben Gallego (D): 52, Kari Lake (R): 41 (50-47 Trump) (Mid-Sept.: 48-42 Gallego)
MI-Sen: RMG Research for the Napolitan Institute: Elissa Slotkin (D): 49, Mike Rogers (R): 43 (50-47 Harris)
MI-Sen: Remington Research Group (R) for the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers: Slotkin (D): 50, Rogers (R): 43 (49-47 Harris) (July: 47-43 Slotkin)
MT-Sen: RRG (R): Tim Sheehy (R): 52, Jon Tester (D-inc): 44 (56-39 Trump) (July: 50-45 Sheehy)
ND-Sen: Lake Research Partners (D) for Katrina Christiansen: Kevin Cramer (R-inc): 49, Katrina Christiansen (D): 40 (50-40 Trump) (Aug.: 51-38 Cramer)
ND-Sen: WPA Intelligence (R) for Cramer: Cramer (R-inc): 60, Christiansen (D): 31
NV-Sen: RRG (R): Jacky Rosen (D-inc): 47, Sam Brown (R): 41 (49-48 Trump) (July: 48-46 Rosen)
PA-Sen: Impact Research (D) & Fabrizio Ward (R) for the AARP: Bob Casey (D-inc): 49, Dave McCormick (R): 45 (49-47 Harris) (April: 48-44 Casey)
PA-Sen: Emerson for RealClearPennsylvania: Casey (D-inc): 47, McCormick (R): 45 (48-48 presidential tie) (Mid-Sept.: 47-42 Casey)
PA-Sen: RRG (R): Casey (D-inc): 49, McCormick (R): 45 (48-47 Trump) (July: 49-48 Casey)
WI-Sen: RRG (R): Tammy Baldwin (D-inc): 49, Eric Hovde (R): 47 (48-48 presidential tie) (July: 48-48 Senate tie)
NC-Gov: Braun Research for the Washington Post: Josh Stein (D): 54, Mark Robinson (R): 38 (50-48 Trump)
NC-Gov: Quinnipiac University: Stein (D): 52, Robinson (R): 39 (49-47 Trump) (Early Sept.: 54-42 Stein)
NC-Gov: Emerson for RealClearWorld: Stein (D): 52, Robinson (R): 33 (49-48 Trump) (Mid-Sept.: 48-40 Stein)
CA-22: Emerson for Nexstar: David Valadao (R-inc): 45, Rudy Salas (D): 45
PA-AG: Impact & Fabrizio: Eugene DePasquale (D): 47, Dave Sunday (R): 44 (April: 44-43 Sunday)
PA Treasurer: Impact & Fabrizio: Stacy Garrity (R-inc): 45, Erin McClelland (D): 44
Note that all three North Carolina polls were in the field after Hurricane Helene made landfall in the U.S. and caused widespread devastation throughout the Southeast, including in western North Carolina.
Emerson's last poll for each of these statewide races was conducted for a separate client, The Hill. This is the first time the school has released a survey for California's 22nd District.
Ad Roundup
AZ-Sen: Ruben Gallego (D)
MI-Sen: Senate Leadership Fund - anti-Elissa Slotkin (D)
MT-Sen: American Crossroads - anti-Jon Tester (D-inc); SLF - anti-Tester
NE-Sen-A: Deb Fischer (R-inc) - anti-Dan Osborn (I); Heartland Resurgence - anti-Osborn
NV-Sen: Environmental Defense Fund - anti-Sam Brown (R)
OH-Sen: NRA - pro-Bernie Moreno (R) and anti-Sherrod Brown (D-inc); American Crossroads - anti-Brown; SLF - anti-Brown
WI-Sen: SLF - anti-Tammy Baldwin (D-inc)
NH-Gov: New Hampshire Democratic Party - anti-Kelly Ayotte (R)
WA-Gov: Bob Ferguson (D); Evergreen Values (DGA affiliate) - anti-Dave Reichert (R)
AK-AL: Congressional Leadership Fund - anti-Mary Peltola (D-inc)
AZ-01: DCCC - anti-David Schweikert (R-inc); NRCC - anti-Amish Shah (D)
AZ-06: CLF - anti-Kirsten Engel (D)
CA-47: House Majority PAC - anti-Scott Baugh (R) (here and here); CLF - anti-Dave Min (D)
CO-08: NRCC - anti-Yadira Caraveo (D-inc)
CT-05: George Logan (R) and the NRCC - anti-Jahana Hayes (D-inc)
IA-01: Christina Bohannan (D) - anti-Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-inc)
IA-03: Lanon Baccam (D); CLF - anti-Baccam
ME-02: NRCC - anti-Jared Golden (D-inc)
MI-07: Curtis Hertel (D)
MI-08: Paul Junge (R) and the NRCC
MI-10: HMP - anti-John James (R-inc)
MT-01: HMP - anti-Ryan Zinke (R-inc); League of Conservation Voters - anti-Zinke
NC-01: Don Davis (D-inc)
NY-19: HMP - anti-Marc Molinaro (R-inc); LCV - anti-Molinaro; CLF - anti-Josh Riley (D); NRCC - anti-Riley
NY-22: John Mannion (D) - anti-Brandon Williams (R-inc)
OR-05: LCV - anti-Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-inc)
PA-07: DCCC - anti-Ryan Mackenzie (R); NRCC - anti-Susan Wild (D-inc)
PA-08: NRCC - anti-Matt Cartwright (D-inc)
PA-17: Chris Deluzio (D-inc)
TX-15: Monica De La Cruz (R-inc)
TX-34: HMP - pro-Vicente Gonzalez (D-inc) and anti-Mayra Flores (R); NRCC - anti-Gonzalez (in English and Spanish)
VA-02: Jen Kiggans (R-inc); Missy Cotter Smasal (D) - anti-Kiggans (here and here)
VA-07: Eugene Vindman (D) and the DCCC - anti-Derrick Anderson (R)
WA-03: NRCC - anti-Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-inc); DCCC - anti-Joe Kent (R)
FL Ballot: Yes on 4 - pro-abortion amendment
MO Ballot: Missourians for Constitutional Freedom - pro-abortion amendment (here and here)
OH Ballot: Citizens Not Politicians - pro-redistricting amendment
Wisconsin: Marquette poll has Harris up 52-48 with LVs. 49-44 in multi candidate field.
Still hard to believe, but this poll has Osborn (I) up in NE-Sen 47-42:
https://x.com/stella2020woof/status/1841566221394702609