Hopium & Simon are making amazing things happen. The community was an early major investor in Ruben Gallego’s Senate candidacy, and in North Carolina’s Democratic Party, which is chaired by the amazing Anderson Clayton (age 26!).
I’m slowly becoming a believer. There’s a lurker on here who works on the campaign, and sorry for not remembering your name, but you mentioned this race just before the site switch and then again soon after. Would really like to hear your thoughts now.
What really opened my eyes though was a late August poll which showed Osborne down 1, but Ricketts up 17 in the special. That mitigates any challenges to a polling error imo. Combined with increased spending for Fischer I’m starting to re-think seats 50+. Originally it was MT>TX/FL>NE/MO but latest evidence seems to be TX>NE>FL/MT>MO. To use a betting analogy, I’d put about even odds on a +52 Senate for either party at this point.
I am a gambler but I am staying away from betting on the Senate;(I am betting on Harris and a Democratic House); but, I can actually see a 50\50 Senate shaping up here, if Florida and Texas and Nebraska(!!) are truly in play; I know very little about Deb Fischer, but definitely Scott and Cruz are unpopular politicians, which brings me hope
Why would we want to hear from a campaign worker? Their job is to build up their candidate in order to make us donate to them and/or vote for them. They won’t give us any real answers.
Just because information comes from someone with a bias doesn’t mean it’s not true. I don’t recall the level of involvement with the campaign, they could have been an enthusiastic volunteer, but they did draw attention to it before anyone else did and have, thus far, been correct.
Polls aside, I'm a believer if for no other reason than that we shouldn't concede any elections. Moreover, it's also a matter of reaching out to voters with a progressive platform, or at least an alternative to the toxicity that MAGAs offer. If folks like Osborn don't bother to reach out to these voters in places like Nebraska, then they will continue to be exposed only to disinformation and toxicity from the GOP and their corrupt allies, while Democrats continue to ignore and neglect them. Like with Lucas Kunce in Missouri, you have to start somewhere if you ever hope to reach out to voters.
Nebraska and Kansas have the ability to support liberal policies and conservative policies. Neither has gone nearly as insane as, e.g., Missouri - and even MO is showing signs of recovery. Moreover, if you just think back over (relatively) recent NE senators, you see Democrats who were certainly better from our perspective than replacement-level backbenchers like Fischer (Exon, Zorinsky, Kerrey) and even some Republicans who were the same (Hagel, and Sasse on many issues, at least early on). Fischer is pretty bland and has of course accomplished almost nothing; Nebraskans may be interested in a more ambitious Senate delegation than her and Ricketts.
All I can find is that it's a Republican firm(but can't find the Bullfinch Group in the entire 538 database); the owner Brett Lloyd was with The Polling company and has links to Kelly Anne Conway; so, I don't know how to judge this frankly unbelievable poll
It's sponsored by something called "The Independent Center", which appears at a cursory glance to be exactly what it sounds like - partisan I (as odd as that may seem). One should probably read this like an internal Osborn poll.
Poll has Trump up 48-38, so add 10 points to the republicans basically. At the end of the day 80% of the republicans are going to vote for the republican and that's more than enough.
I am just saying that we should be very wary of this particular poll; I agree that this race has now gotten on the radar but let's step back a little for now and let it go another couple of weeks; hopefully with some more reputable pollster(damn I wish that race had a selzer\marquette type local expert or a Ralston blog for close-up reporting)
Nope; but I would give that Survey USA poll recently showing Osborn plus1 lots of credence(and of course, following the money, BOTH sides are spending real money)
Another thing is that with no Democrat or 3rd party candidates(other than the technically Independent Osborn)in the race, it's a straight up or down vote between the 2; apparently Fischer has refused to debate, which could play on the margins
FWIW a lot of these polls in Nebraska aren't partisan pollsters. Many are nonpartisan or even right leaning and those like SurveyUSA are quite reputable. I guess we'll find out how this plays out.
Still hard to believe, but this poll has Osborn (I) up in NE-Sen 47-42:
https://x.com/stella2020woof/status/1841566221394702609
Yep. But I’m still not convinced.
NSRC has gone into Nebraska and started spending money there.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4901835-nebraska-senate-race-fischer-spending/amp/
Osborn is definitley helped with his last name being similar to the famous head coach
Who was also a congressman.
This is too much Hopium for me; I'd like a more reputable source
Hopium & Simon are making amazing things happen. The community was an early major investor in Ruben Gallego’s Senate candidacy, and in North Carolina’s Democratic Party, which is chaired by the amazing Anderson Clayton (age 26!).
Just saying.
Can you link to the poll or ID the pollster? Not an Elon user.
Bullfinch Group poll 400 response
Thanks. 400 LVs. Shows Trump up by 11.
Correct but can we really believe that NE-Senate?(I'd love it to be true, but damn, that's a lot of wishful thinking)
I’m slowly becoming a believer. There’s a lurker on here who works on the campaign, and sorry for not remembering your name, but you mentioned this race just before the site switch and then again soon after. Would really like to hear your thoughts now.
What really opened my eyes though was a late August poll which showed Osborne down 1, but Ricketts up 17 in the special. That mitigates any challenges to a polling error imo. Combined with increased spending for Fischer I’m starting to re-think seats 50+. Originally it was MT>TX/FL>NE/MO but latest evidence seems to be TX>NE>FL/MT>MO. To use a betting analogy, I’d put about even odds on a +52 Senate for either party at this point.
I am a gambler but I am staying away from betting on the Senate;(I am betting on Harris and a Democratic House); but, I can actually see a 50\50 Senate shaping up here, if Florida and Texas and Nebraska(!!) are truly in play; I know very little about Deb Fischer, but definitely Scott and Cruz are unpopular politicians, which brings me hope
Why would we want to hear from a campaign worker? Their job is to build up their candidate in order to make us donate to them and/or vote for them. They won’t give us any real answers.
Just because information comes from someone with a bias doesn’t mean it’s not true. I don’t recall the level of involvement with the campaign, they could have been an enthusiastic volunteer, but they did draw attention to it before anyone else did and have, thus far, been correct.
Polls aside, I'm a believer if for no other reason than that we shouldn't concede any elections. Moreover, it's also a matter of reaching out to voters with a progressive platform, or at least an alternative to the toxicity that MAGAs offer. If folks like Osborn don't bother to reach out to these voters in places like Nebraska, then they will continue to be exposed only to disinformation and toxicity from the GOP and their corrupt allies, while Democrats continue to ignore and neglect them. Like with Lucas Kunce in Missouri, you have to start somewhere if you ever hope to reach out to voters.
I hope it's not a progressive platform, because if it is, it won't succeed in Nebraska.
Nebraska and Kansas have the ability to support liberal policies and conservative policies. Neither has gone nearly as insane as, e.g., Missouri - and even MO is showing signs of recovery. Moreover, if you just think back over (relatively) recent NE senators, you see Democrats who were certainly better from our perspective than replacement-level backbenchers like Fischer (Exon, Zorinsky, Kerrey) and even some Republicans who were the same (Hagel, and Sasse on many issues, at least early on). Fischer is pretty bland and has of course accomplished almost nothing; Nebraskans may be interested in a more ambitious Senate delegation than her and Ricketts.
All of the Democratic senators you mention were quite conservative for Democrats.
Even odds on 52 for the Democrats? That's very bold!
All I can find is that it's a Republican firm(but can't find the Bullfinch Group in the entire 538 database); the owner Brett Lloyd was with The Polling company and has links to Kelly Anne Conway; so, I don't know how to judge this frankly unbelievable poll
It's sponsored by something called "The Independent Center", which appears at a cursory glance to be exactly what it sounds like - partisan I (as odd as that may seem). One should probably read this like an internal Osborn poll.
Thank you!
Poll has Trump up 48-38, so add 10 points to the republicans basically. At the end of the day 80% of the republicans are going to vote for the republican and that's more than enough.
I don't think we should give this poll any credibility
here are all the other polls that show a close race.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2024/nebraska/general/
the remaining undecideds are probably Republican leaning but mutiple pollsters have now shown it’s a close race
I am just saying that we should be very wary of this particular poll; I agree that this race has now gotten on the radar but let's step back a little for now and let it go another couple of weeks; hopefully with some more reputable pollster(damn I wish that race had a selzer\marquette type local expert or a Ralston blog for close-up reporting)
Maybe, but not if a clear majority of undecideds end up voting Republican.
none at all?
Nope; but I would give that Survey USA poll recently showing Osborn plus1 lots of credence(and of course, following the money, BOTH sides are spending real money)
Another thing is that with no Democrat or 3rd party candidates(other than the technically Independent Osborn)in the race, it's a straight up or down vote between the 2; apparently Fischer has refused to debate, which could play on the margins
Wow! If he wins, I'll be really glad I contributed to his campaign!
Probably so.
Probably suggestive that Bullfinch isn’t a top tier pollster…
Without more corroboration, I'm putting Bullfinch Group just this side of Trafalgar
FWIW a lot of these polls in Nebraska aren't partisan pollsters. Many are nonpartisan or even right leaning and those like SurveyUSA are quite reputable. I guess we'll find out how this plays out.