Morning Digest: Missouri Democrats mobilize against GOP plan to make initiatives impossible

A tiny minority of voters could block even the most popular ballot measures

Screenshot from ad

Leading Off

MO Ballot

Missouri Republicans have made it a priority to pass a pair of amendments on Aug. 4 that would eliminate the state’s income tax and make it all but impossible for citizens to amend the state constitution in the future.

Democrats are urging voters to reject both plans at the ballot box, and they have a deep-pocketed ally for both efforts: the Missouri Association of Realtors.

“The common thread between the amendments is luring Missouri citizens to surrender long-held constitutional power and freedom, and giving that power to politicians to use unchecked,” Scott Charton, a spokesperson for a pair of groups funded by the Realtors, told St. Louis Public Radio in May.

Both of Charton’s organizations are now airing ads urging Missourians to vote “no” on both plans.

“For over 100 years, Missouri voters have used our constitutional authority of citizen-led ballot measures to win needed reforms and hold politicians accountable,” says the narrator in a spot for Missourians for Fair Governance as the audience sees Lego figures representing “Politicians and Lobbyists” and “Citizens” balanced equally on scales of justice.

Everything changes, though, when a giant bag labeled “Amendment 4” lands on the pan with the politicians and lobbyists.

“Four makes it nearly impossible for citizens to pass ballot measures,” the ad declares as the citizens are depicted struggling to carry a ballot measure up the steps of the state capitol only to be barred by a gate.

The narrator continues by warning that Amendment 4, which would require any voter-backed amendments to receive a majority of the vote not only statewide but in every one of Missouri’s eight congressional districts, “allows as few as 5% of statewide voters in one district to block any ballot measure.”

The citizens learn this the hard way as a 95-to-5 vote in favor of burgers goes in the direction of broccoli—with a giant Lego broccoli landing on the majority side.

Another organization funded by the state Association of Realtors is simultaneously working to stop Amendment 5, which would gradually do away with the state’s income tax and empower the GOP-dominated legislature to expand the sales tax to compensate for lost revenue.

A spot from Missourians for Fair Taxation shows two men in suits winning a game of musical chairs as the narrator warns that “the politicians’ hidden tax-shift plan” would produce “up to eight losers for every two winners.”

The ad continues by saying the amendment “opens your family to being hurt by new taxes on services, doctor visits, child care, even apartment rent, and higher sales taxes that could rise to over 20%.” The narrator concludes, “Your odds in their hidden tax-shift game are bad. Vote no on Amendment 5.”

While neither commercial references the other amendment, the Association of Realtors has reason to treat both questions as part of the same battle.

The organization, the Missouri Independent explains, has spent millions on past initiative campaigns to prevent sales taxes from being applied to real estate transactions. This would become much more difficult, though, if Amendment 4 wins next month and changes the rules for all future citizen-backed amendments.

Republican Gov. Mike Kehoe has also used his power over the calendar to link the two amendments. The governor announced just before Memorial Day that the two proposals, as well as a pair of low-profile amendments on other topics, would go before voters during Missouri’s Aug. 4 primaries rather than appear on the fall general election ballot.

Kehoe may be hoping that his side will benefit from low turnout this summer, though he had other reasons to schedule the Amendment 4 battle for next month.

This fall, Missouri voters will likely get the chance to decide on a pair of high-profile ballot measures that would, respectively, block the GOP’s new congressional gerrymander and make it more difficult for the legislature to repeal or amend citizen-led amendments. A victory for Amendment 4, though, would make it challenging for either plan to pass even if a strong majority of voters support them.

Conservatives are airing ads to get Amendment 4 across the finish line, but they’re not eager to talk about the unanimous congressional district requirement.

A group called Protect MO Voters instead depicts three men in the shadows huddled around a table with a Chinese flag as the narrator says the plan “bans foreign interests from interfering in our electoral process.” He continues by saying it also “prosecutes anyone who tries to commit election fraud, and mandates voters see the full ballot language.”

Missourians for Fair Governance derided the inclusion of these unrelated provisions, which Missouri politicos like to call “ballot candy,” saying they were designed to confuse voters about Amendment 4’s true aims.

A state judge agreed and rewrote ballot summary language drafted by Republicans that emphasized these provisions while relegating the district-level majorities required for passage of new amendments to the fourth of five bullet points. Instead, that provision will now come first, while foreign money and election fraud aren’t mentioned at all.

Conservatives are also urging voters to greenlight Amendment 5, which the Missouri Independent has described as one of Kehoe’s “top priorities.”

An ad from an outfit called Missouri Promise features two large men labeled “Property Tax” and “Income Tax” greedily consuming a family’s dinner.

“Amendment 5 shows them the door,” says the narrator, “cutting property taxes, phasing out income taxes, and shifting the burden to big corporations that have been getting a free meal.”

Democrats, however, warn that both GOP-backed plans would hurt the state’s citizens.

“If Amendment 5 passes, Missouri’s tax burden would be shifted almost entirely on to working-families, military families, and retirees,” the state party said in a statement last month. Democrats, likewise, also blasted Amendment 4 as “an anti-worker scheme intended to trick and deprive the citizens of Missouri their full and traditional powers guaranteed to them under the state’s constitution.”

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SCOTUS' war on voting rights

Redistricting Roundup

MD Redistricting

Legislative leaders in Maryland announced Tuesday that they would hold a special session early next month to consider a plan to redraw the state’s congressional map in time for the 2028 elections.

Senate President Bill Ferguson, whose steadfast opposition prevented fellow Democrats from passing new districts that could be used this year, and House Speaker Joseline Pena-Melnyk, who supported a new map all along, said they would consider a constitutional amendment for this fall’s ballot during the session. The text for this proposed amendment has not yet been released.

Ferguson had long stood in the way of a new map to target the district held by Rep. Andy Harris, the lone Republican in the state’s congressional delegation. The Senate leader, among other things, said he feared the state Supreme Court could block such a plan.

Ferguson, though, began to change his tune in May ahead of a tough primary contest against charter boat operator Bobby LaPin. The incumbent, who argued the “ground has shifted” after the U.S. Supreme Court gutted the Voting Rights Act, said he was now open to putting an amendment before voters to address his legal concerns.

Ferguson ended up defeating the underfunded LaPin, who made redistricting a centerpiece of his campaign, albeit by an underwhelming 57-43 margin.

2Q Fundraising

• MN-Sen: Angie Craig (D): $2.6 million raised, $5 million cash on hand

• NM-Gov: (May 27 to June 27)

  • Deb Haaland (D): $1.1 million raised, $2.3 million cash on hand

  • Gregg Hull (R): $350,000 raised, $300,000 cash on hand

• FL-21: Bernard Taylor (D): $563,000 raised

• NH-01: Maura Sullivan (D): $700,000 raised, $1.6 million cash on hand

• NJ-07: Rebecca Bennett (D): $1.6 million raised, $1.3 million cash on hand

Governors

GA-Gov

Lt. Gov. Burt Jones has not endorsed wealthy businessman Rick Jackson in the three weeks since Jackson defeated him in an upset in the Republican runoff for Georgia’s open governorship, nor has he indicated why he’s remaining neutral.

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Greg Bluestein, though, notes that there’s still unfinished business between the two. Both filed defamation lawsuits for claims the other made during the race, and neither has been withdrawn now that the contest is over.

Most of Jones’ old allies, however, quickly consolidated behind Jackson after he became the GOP’s candidate against Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms, the former mayor of Atlanta. This cohort includes Donald Trump, who was Jones’ most prominent backer, and termed-out Gov. Brian Kemp, who endorsed Jones just two days before his defeat.

House

AZ-05

Former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb’s allies at the radical anti-tax Club for Growth have released a poll showing him far ahead in the July 21 Republican primary despite more than a month of ugly headlines about allegations concerning his personal life and professional conduct.

Lamb posts a 61-27 advantage over wealthy construction contractor Daniel Keenan in the contest for Arizona’s open 5th District, according to Pulse Decision Science.

Keenan, though, has a different read on the race. He publicized his own internal poll last week from Remington Research Group giving him a 46-32 advantage over Lamb in the GOP primary for this conservative constituency, which Rep. Andy Biggs is giving up to run for governor. No one has released any other surveys of this primary this year.

Lamb, who picked up Donald Trump’s endorsement last year, was the undisputed frontrunner before May, when two women accused him of sending them sexual messages and threatening to use law enforcement if they spoke out.

The Arizona Republic, which first reported the allegations, went on to publish several more unflattering pieces about Lamb. These include​​—but are not limited to—allegations that Lamb made a racist joke about Black people, and now-former friend Matt Hilsabeck’s claim that Lamb introduced him to a “lifestyle” that involved sex with Lamb’s wife.

Lamb, who continues to run under the slogan “faith, family, freedom,” has denounced the allegations as “lies,” though the Republic writes he “has not responded to specific claims.”

But while Keenan has aired ads calling his rival “a disgrace, an embarrassment, and unfit for office,” Lamb is anything but a pariah within his party. MAGA’s master remains in Lamb’s corner, and the Club is now spending $250,000 on ads citing Trump’s endorsement of Lamb on Truth Social.

CA-40

Rep. Ken Calvert on Monday received an endorsement from Steve Hilton, the Republican candidate for California’s open governorship, ahead of his general election battle against fellow GOP Rep. Young Kim.

Calvert finished well ahead of Kim in last month’s top-two primary for the 40th District, which Democrats dramatically redrew to make nearby Southern California seats more Democratic, but Kim did well enough to continue her campaign. Calvert took first with 35%, while Kim outpaced Democrat Esther Kim-Varet 21-17 for the second-place spot.

MI-07

Diplomat Bridget Brink is airing a commercial pushing back on a recent spot from allies of former Navy SEAL Matt Maasdam that faulted her for serving as Donald Trump’s ambassador to Slovakia.

“I’ve faced some tough fights from standing up to Vladimir Putin to battling breast cancer here at home,” says Brink, whom Joe Biden later appointed to serve as ambassador to Ukraine. “So I’m not going to stand for a desperate, false smear campaign from Matt Maasdam.”

The ad comes just under a month before the three-way Democratic primary on Aug. 4 for the right to take on Republican Rep. Tom Barrett in Michigan’s swingy 7th District. Climate activist William Lawrence, who co-founded the Sunrise Movement, has not been targeted by either Brink or Maasdam or their respective allies so far.

MO-01

The political arm of the centrist New Democrat Coalition has launched what Punchbowl News reports is a $1 million ad campaign targeting former Rep. Cori Bush, who is seeking a rematch against freshman Rep. Wesley Bell in next month’s Democratic primary for Missouri’s 1st District.

The group’s new spot emphasizes a clip from an October 2024 interview on Al Jazeera English in which Bush, who had lost renomination to Bell two months earlier, said, “I’m seeing fascism right now with a Joe Biden presidency and a Vice President Harris presidency.”

That line came after host Marc Lamont Hill asked Bush if she’d vote for Kamala Harris. After denouncing Donald Trump, Bush still expressed her disgust with the Democratic administration and did not commit to supporting anyone.

The New Democrat Coalition’s ad goes on to fault Bush for opposing Biden’s 2021 infrastructure package. Critics previously attacked the ex-congresswoman, who was one of a small group of Democrats who said they opposed the plan from the left, over that vote two years ago.

Poll Pile

• AZ-Gov (R): Noble Predictive Insights:

  • Andy Biggs: 60, David Schweikert: 10.

  • May: 48-18 Biggs.

• AL-02: Impact Research for the DCCC:

  • Rhett Marques (R): 45, Shomari Figures (D-inc): 44.