Might this indicate that after McMorrow dropped out most of her voters are supporting Haley Steven – while Abdul El-Sayed perhaps is close to his ceiling?
You could also argue that a lot of McMorrow's more left-oriented supporters already started shifting to Abdul El-Sayed before she dropped out, which would explain his surge and her decline. Based on the graph in the link it seems like a few McMorrow voters also trickled to Stevens before McMorrow dropped out, and Stevens might pick up the few remaining.
For the most part, even if you add *all* of McMorrow's support to Stevens' share of the vote, she doesn't take a commanding lead over El-Sayed. Seems more like they're both approaching their "ceiling," and it's all going to come down to undecided voters.
This is actually a good reminder that Congressional Republicans -- in both the generic ballot and named polls like this -- do about 6-8 pts better than the Trump approval. An indicator that the floor can go low, but probably not thaaaat low.
Those seats make sense to be bolstering, as one of them would likely be the tipping point 51st seat with North Carolina, Alaska and Maine most likely to be seats 48-50.
The only political ads I'm seeing here in NC now are Roy Cooper ads -- they frequently air the ones where he says, "as governor, I always funded the police."
I expect Whatley or pro Whatley PACs to start slinging mud after Labor Day.
One of Democrats biggest weakness is how voters perceive us on law and order. It makes sense for Cooper, who has a long track record as a prosecutor, to tackle that head on.
This is my personal pet peeve, so apologies for the repetition, but it's usually a mistake to repeat the opponent's negative attacks in the rebuttal. Cooper should have instead said "as governor I have always funded the police." The difference is subtle but it emphasizes what he positively does, not just negating an attack.
It probably won't matter as he is well ahead, but I still would have phrased it differently.
Yeah. I'll admit that I have a... "bleak" view of US law enforcement, but that's just me, and that's how I would've phrased it if I were Cooper. Gets the point across without needlessly trying to come off as "not one of *those* Democrats"
Cooper was also a moderate Democrat as Governor too. Although, to my knowledge (and correct me if I'm wrong), he didn't really fight with the left or do anything to piss off really anyone in the Democratic Party at all -- hence why he has avoided ideological opposition from either the left or conservative wings of the party (that, and he's our single best shot at flipping this seat). Probably helps that he couldn't actually do much as Governor that I know period due to (again, correct me if I'm wrong) Phil Berger and the tyrannical state legislature GOP killing anything he tried.
Cooper is a moderate Democrat who made a point of appointing progressives to judicial positions. Although the only ones who won re-election were Allison Riggs and John Arrowood.
One of the things he is most well known for is his opposition to the infamous "bathroom bill". Your average liberal democrat probably counts that in his favor.
I consider myself relatively progressive, but I was thrilled when Cooper decided to run for the senate seat since he has the demonstrated name recognition to win in a statewide race and it will be difficult to stick him with the GOP's favorite pejoratives for Democrats - "Washington insider" and "elite". Both those labels fit Michael Whatley far better than Cooper!
And I hope that Trump's "complete and total endorsement" of Whatley is a boat anchor around his neck!
We absolutely need to get out the vote in numbers that make it too big to rig AND to flip enough seats in the General Assembly to make sure that no more of Cooper's vetoes get overridden.
So this motherf***er is still in the race? Maybe we shouldn’t be surprised considering he had the nerve to stay in even after being caught in a lie about his Nazi tattoo.
With all the new information, I'll admit that I defended Platner long past his expiration date. He's truly despicable and it's a total blunder how none of this came out in vetting or in the primary.
That being said, I truly hope that this whole debacle doesn't dissuade candidates with "unconventional" backgrounds from running or from voters/party members from supporting them. Part of the appeal of the early Platner campaign was the fresh perspective he was bringing to the election, and his narrative was undeniably compelling. I think a lot of the the excitement that we've seen in insurgent primary campaigns that have gone on to win or almost win isn't rooted solely in ideology (though it's certainly a factor). It's refreshing to hear candidates like Mamdani, Osborn, Kiros, etc. talk about politics. Hell, that was part of AOC's victory back in 2018 and remains part of her identity today.
In short: fuck Graham Platner; still open to unconventional candidates, but ones with moral scruples please & thank you.
I believed that people *could* change. I think it's because I've had an imperfect past, including politically... granted I was literally 13, never worked for Blackwater, never said the shit he did as a fully grown man, and never got a Nazi tattoo, but still. He seemed genuine, and because a lot of what he said/did were moreso personal shortcomings and didn't directly affect or hurt others around him, I was willing to accept and believe that he really did change as a person.
That said, the Nazi tattoo was pretty bad and I was *really* expecting and hoping that he'd drop out and a less crazy progressive option would emerge, but that didn't happen, so I reluctantly supported him based on the logic above. When the first accusations of abuse came out that went from "reluctant support" to "well, he's the nominee regardless..." I wasn't super comfortable with the idea that, because his accuser was a Republican with ties to Susan Collins, the accusations must be false, but I did understand that there was plausible deniability because of that, and gave up the idea that he could still be replaced as the nominee after he won the nomination in a massive landslide. if Maine voters believed him and weren't willing to vote against him as protest, there wasn't much I could say, y'know?
And now this comes out. I'm not even surprised... just angry and tired. Angry that he got this far, that Bernie and others who should know better enabled him to get this far, and tired of people using this as "proof" progressive candidates can't be trusted or that they're unelectable. If anything this whole ordeal almost proves how strong progressive policies are. There's no way Platner should've survived the Nazi tattoo scandal, but he did anyway because voters resonated with what he was saying. In spite of that we're definitely going to see people use this to attack candidates like El-Sayed in Michigan who is squeaky clean from personal scandals.
Of course it will dissuade candidates with unconventional backgrounds from running. Most people have baggage and some level of secret life that they don't want people to find out. After swinging from the MeToo-era extreme where a slap on the ass in the 1980s assured lifetime cancellation from polite society to the current extreme where Trump wins the Presidency after sexual assault conviction, people like Platner with sordid backgrounds but an appetite for public service make the decision to test the public's willingness for unlimited forgiveness.
Had this rape charge not come up, he'd have probably gotten away with it. Since it did come up and he's gonna be (rightfully) chased off the stage, it will absolutely have a dulling effect on "unconventional" candidate recruitment. Particularly in the online era where the temptation for stupid behavior and the increased capacity to document it and penalize it coexist, fewer and fewer "unconventional" candidates are gonna deem themselves clean enough to pass the test when they do a gut check. We better thus prepare ourselves for even more candidates who look and feel like they were grown in labs....having spent their whole lives being groomed for careers in politics. Everybody else is gonna be too "human" to run, and unable to hide from past indiscretions the way their grandfathers were.
-Platner’s use of social media amplified his problems. No disrespect to anyone using Reddit but if I were running for political office, there’s no way my account would be known to the public as I have anonymity.
-He also used Bumble which apparently got him into one of his last relationships. Bumble like many dating apps can allow both users to keep old messages if not already deleted.
I have always thought it was crazy for celebrities and politicians to use social media in the first place. Yes, it’s important to stay connected but you are compromising your own privacy this way.
The lesson from Maine is simple: When someone repeatedly shows us who he is – as Graham Platner has done very thoroughly through many years – we ignore it at our peril. And when those responsible for vetting totally botch their job, then it rises to political malpractice.
Those responsible for it should never be allowed near another major campaign ever again. I hope no one forgets. People tried warning about how this guy was bad news. For some reason, his backers kept giving him an undeserved narrative that he had “changed” or “learned.”
The people who need to “change” and “learn” are those who embraced and endorsed Platner, and continued applauding him, even as his shit kept piling up so high – that the shit inevitably hit the fan.
It seems that those people were just as drunk as Platner allegedly was when he got his Totenkopf tattoo.
Sadly there is no formal “vetting” process that parties do. People run if/when they want to, and bad stuff almost always comes out because rival campaigns pay opposition researchers to dig it up.
Whoever recruited Platner should be blacklisted but equally so should the people who ran Janet Mills' campaign. Says a lot that the worst things to come out about Platner had nothing to do with Mills or her campaign
Yeah, far too few realize it was the Mills campaign's job to fully investigate him. It was obvious from virtually her entry that she was far behind and she couldn't defeat him on issues so they HAD to bring him down on background and character and they did nothing (beyond repeating what was already in the press and well known) to find the whole village worth of skeletons in Platner's closet!
While this is true, Racicot didn't come forward until a couple days ago, and she explicitly said she wasn't ready to come forward until now. Some things just aren't find-out-able when it's most convenient.
I (like pretty much everyone else here) have been thinking about the Graham Platner situation and how he had so many red flags yet made it so far because people really liked his message. I wonder if part of the reason for this is because he caught the attention of tons of people who had not been highly involved in politics and therefore haven't learned or come to terms with the fact that people who run for office are sometimes going to disappoint you.
Platner was popular with young people who were newly tuning into politics and older people who felt inspired to tune into politics again. They had a vague understanding that politicians are sketchy, but these people really felt seen and heard by Platner. When they finally felt like they had found a politician they resonated with, they didn't want to think or accept that they could be let down by him too, so they refused to be.
To state the obvious, Trump. This whole saga showed Democratic voters are also susceptible to a cult-like mentality around a candidate as the GOP has been for over a decade.
With the small difference that when our candidate was accused of sexual assault we dropped him instead of nominated him for President three times in a row.
Franken and Swalwell as well. We have a demonstrated zero tolerance policy for sexual assault/harassment (at least, once it becomes a news story *looks at the Swalwell story*) and that's a good thing.
I was thinking of Bill Clinton. That's a long time ago, though, and it's unclear whether there was ever strong evidence of more than consensual sex on his part.
I'm saying that Democrats are not as susceptible because Trump's sexual assault allegations solidified his support and caused his supporters to rally around him while Platner's has led to him being abandoned by the party. There's nothing wrong with getting excited by a new kind of candidate, and I think trying to chastise Democrats for liking Platner in October is just a psyop by Republicans who can't sleep at night because they know better than how they've behaved for the last decade.
Well, we dropped him because there's a clock ticking toward the need to replace him on the ballot. If this came out two weeks from now and he couldn't be replaced on the ballot, I suspect Democrats would have circled the wagons.
I agree, I'm just saying that Platner is the most recent high profile example of this. And my line of thinking is that people who are newly tuning into politics or returning to politics because they've historically felt overlooked and now feel heard are most susceptable to having these blinders. People need to learn (often the hard way) that idolizing politicians as infallable and digging one's heels in the sand for them when they no longer deserve support is incorrect, and that its okay to feel disappointed by a politician you liked. It's part of politics.
I'm not claiming this to be an original take. Just one that I had and think is important to point out.
[I posted about this late yesterday, but commenting again when more people will see.]
Nigel Farage, architect of Brexit, leader of the far-right Reform UK party, and erstwhile poll-leader for the still far-off 2029 UK parliamentary elections, resigned his seat in parliament only to announce his intention to stand in the by-election to replace himself. The purpose of this was to quash a parliamentary investigation into massive "gifts" he received from crypto billionaires (including convicted fraudsters) which he never declared, despite the legal obligation to do so. You see, if you're no longer a member of parliament, then can't investigate you, can they? He also described the upcoming by-election as a "people vs. establishment" contest, that would re-establish his legitimacy. Farage got his parliamentary seat by shopping out the most pro-Reform constituency in the country, Clacton, and had little doubt he could win again there.
Funny thing happened though, all of the major parties have refused to participate in this farce. And thus far, it looks like the only opponent Farage will face will be Count Binface. Binface is as satirical who has stood in a good number of elections, campaigning with a rubbish bin over his head. Binface's manifesto for the Clacton by-election includes such points as "Cap the price of a croissant at £1", "Make water company bosses swim in polluted rivers", and "Build at least one affordable house".
Ironically, Farage might indeed have to make a serious effort to fend off Binface. It will at least be a interesting test of how sick people are of his political antics.
They never could’ve expelled him. The harshest punishment from the investigation is a suspension from parliament. That will then open a recall petition in Clacton where 10% of the electorate must then sign it in a week (I believe it is, might be 2 weeks) for a by-election to be triggered.
In terms of other candidates, the extremely minor far-right Reclaim Party and British Democrats are looking to stand candidates, as are the single-issue Rejoin EU Party, the Monster Raving Looney Party, and a couple of absolute nobodies. Doesn't look like it will quite be a straight Reform-Binface fight, but that is probably what the dynamic will end up being, lol
For clarification, the announced reclaim candidate (and their leader), Lawrence Fox got less votes in the 2021 London mayoral election than two satirical YouTubers aimed at teenagers (Niko Omilana and Max Fosh).
Qualls is the Minnesota GOP convention-endorsed candidate, DeMuth is the state house speaker, and Lindell is a pillow magnate and conspiracy theorist.
The pollster, to my knowledge, did not release numbers for ether party's U.S. Senate primary or the Democratic gubernatorial primary, although the latter is only nominally competitive.
Considering the massive hole the GOP starts in the Twin Cities now due to January 2026, if they really were dumb enough to nominate Lindell, what kind of slaughter would Klobuchar lay down upon him and what kind of coattails could that produce?
Meh. Maybe 12 points. I don't think it'd be as lopsided as you're imagining. Klobuchar beat Royce White by 16 points in 2024. I don't think Lindell would be as terrible of a candidate as Royce White was.
They seem to be equally as bad, and people are more willing to vote for the "other" party in state elections compared to federal elections, and the environment is bluer. I'm guessing over 20 points, easilly.
(if you click the link, it seems to start at some different point in the video and I can't get it to start from the beginning. My apologies.)
Great rundown on the Graham Platner controversy from progressive commentator Mike Figueredo, who's one of my favorites. It does touch on a few forbidden topics, which is almost inevitable when discussing Platner's campaign and the broader ideological divides in the Democratic Party.
IL-HD-103/Champaign County, IL Clerk - Illinois State Rep. Carol Ammons (D-Urbana) and her husband, Champaign County, IL Clerk Aaron Ammons, have been indicated on federal wire fraud, witness tampering, and perjury charges:
The Ammons family is well-known in the Chanpaign-Urbana area for using nepotism and political connections to get multiple members of their family elected to various public offices.
I don't know what the deadline is for the Ammonses to withdraw from their re-election campaigns and allow the Democratic precinct committeepeople to slate replacement nominees. HD-103 is probably way too Democratic-leaning for a GOP win even with a major scandal, although Champaign County as a whole is still amenable to voting for Republicans.
I mean you never know... Joseph Cao won the election for Louisiana's second congressional district in 2008 due to the incumbent being embroiled in scandal. In the same election, the district voted 74% for Obama
That said it was a different time and different circumstances. In the Trump era, partisanship is probably of bigger importance to voters. Cao was also uniquely well crafted for his district and was among the most liberal of Republicans at the time, whereas I'd imagine the Republican nominee in this district is yet another lunatic.
It's funny how politics used to have crazy stories like that. I believe Hawaii elected a Republican Rep at one point in 2009-ish due to a split field (EDIT: Charles Djou). Back in the 1990s, the Republican Revolution took out Ways and Means chair Dan Rostenkowski and replaced him with a right-wing Republican. George Nethercutt taking out then-speaker Tom Foley in the same election too, Democrat Doug Jones winning in Alabama due to a radioactive GOP nominee, probably a ton of other such stories in political history.
Which leads me to a question -- any other crazy "Republican/Democrat wins in seat they weren't expected to win in" situations that people here remember? Not just upsets, but striking upsets in seemingly unfriendly territory or against powerful individuals?
The Hawaii election was in 2010 for the 1st, between Republican Honolulu councilor Charles Djou, former Democratic Rep. Ed Case, and Democratic state Sen. Colleen Hanabusa. Djou defeated Case and Hanabusa in the special, but Hanabusa defeated him in November. She subsequently retired two cycles later, came back a cycle after that after Democrat Mark Takai died in office, and then retired again in 2018, with Case holding the seat since. Now she has died, and Djou served in the Biden administration.
There's plenty of 1994 and 2010 races like that, but since we're on the topic of 2010, Joe Walsh beating Melissa Bean was a big one, as well as Blake Farenthold beating Solomon Ortiz. Both of those seats were pretty Democratic.
And Melissa Bean is all but set to make a comeback in IL-08 in the general.
As for Joe Walsh, after his time in Congress was up and lost his radio show for being too-anti Trump, he left the GOP to become Independent, and then a Dem.
Heidi Heitkamp in the 2012 ND-Sen race, although that seat had a retiring Democratic-NPL incumbent in a state that was already seen as trending away from Democrats.
The election was delayed until December 2008 due to Hurricane Gustav (LA-4 as well). If the election was held at the same time as the presidential election, I fully believe Bill Jefferson would have won reelection. Paul Carmouche too.
Elaine Chao, the wife of Sen. Mitch McConnell, is back in the U.S. after a trip to China, and says her husband's condition didn't warrant a cancelation of the trip.
After public outrage, partisan NC State Board of Elections operative Dallas Woodhouse has been "reassigned" when personal text messages came out of him encouraging GOP county board members to vote against early voting sites at college campuses in NC.
Every time I hear about Dallas Woodhouse, I'm reminded of the time when he and his brother, Brad (who's a Democratic activist) went on C-SPAN to promote the book they wrote together titled "Woodhouse Divided". Their mother called in unexpectedly and chastised the two of them for fighting about politics during holiday gatherings.
The next establishment/progressive high-profile Democratic primary could be the race for mayor of Providence, Rhode Island, where incumbent Brett Smiley is attempting to fend off the DSA-backed state Rep. David Morales in September.
Statewide, there's an obvious anti-incumbency sentiment as Gov. Dan McKee is down double digits in most polls against Helena Foulkes. But it's unsure as to whether Morales can harness progressive strength to oust Smiley. In 2023's special election for Congress, the more moderate Gabe Amo defeated progressive state Rep. Aaron Regunberg in a seat that includes half of the city of Providence.
All the while, conservative groups are making a bigger push to gain traction in the state this year, with them fielding candidates through the "League of Rhode Island Businesses". Despite this, Republicans failed to get a prominent candidate for governor such as state Sen. Jessica De La Cruz.
interesting to see conservatives try to grab a bigger toehold in RI, from what I've read the state is more socially conservative than I thought, but otherwise very partisanly blue
I'm surprised it's held up as well as it has for Democrats in the Trump era. I'll continue to keep an eye on it moving forward because its demographics are not consistent with the emerging Democratic coalition.
Most of the state lives in the Providence metro area. Fairly well educated, rank 16 by bachelor's attainment and rank 12 for degrees above that -- better than California on both metrics. Rank 14 on median household income, basically tied with Minnesota.
While it is a fairly white state, (1) it's not overwhelmingly so at ~70%, and (2) white is not a demographic group that we struggle with in New England.
What demographic issues do you see for us with Rhode Island specifically?
If I was going to be worried about our prospects in the state it would be from the potential of it being economically hollowed out as companies move from Providence to Boston, but I don't think that's happening to enough of a degree to cause issues.
Disproportionately large demographics of working-class Catholics--Italians, Portuguese, and Puerto Ricans.....all groups that moved very sharply against Democrats in 2024 after edging more narrowly against them in previous cycles. The old guard and the emerging minority are both a handful of cycles deep into a straight-line MAGA realignment that I suspect could be durable.
Obviously, there's the upscale coastal population which is trending the other direction and offsetting the Providence County collapse, but I still think it's a state to watch.
How are you defining the "disproportionately large working class" metric?
Not trying to be a pain here! I don't know where I'd get that specific data so I can't explicitly say true/false there. But based on the education and income data I'd be surprised to find that as accurate.
Providence itself has consistently grown in every census starting with 1990, including growth after the 2020 census. Same detail for Providence county. No population collapse there.
Might this indicate that after McMorrow dropped out most of her voters are supporting Haley Steven – while Abdul El-Sayed perhaps is close to his ceiling?
Probably too early to divine that
You could also argue that a lot of McMorrow's more left-oriented supporters already started shifting to Abdul El-Sayed before she dropped out, which would explain his surge and her decline. Based on the graph in the link it seems like a few McMorrow voters also trickled to Stevens before McMorrow dropped out, and Stevens might pick up the few remaining.
https://fiftyplusone.news/polls/senate/democratic-primary/michigan
For the most part, even if you add *all* of McMorrow's support to Stevens' share of the vote, she doesn't take a commanding lead over El-Sayed. Seems more like they're both approaching their "ceiling," and it's all going to come down to undecided voters.
Plausible numbers.
Lawler is lucky he's got 5% less in unfavorable ratings vs. Trump. /s
This is actually a good reminder that Congressional Republicans -- in both the generic ballot and named polls like this -- do about 6-8 pts better than the Trump approval. An indicator that the floor can go low, but probably not thaaaat low.
In other words, this is good news for Lawler! jk
Fantastic news. This is my district, and I detest Lawler. I will help the Conley campaign as best I can.
He's cooked. No way this doesn't fall if it's a wave
They must see Husted's seat slipping out of reach. Good.
Those seats make sense to be bolstering, as one of them would likely be the tipping point 51st seat with North Carolina, Alaska and Maine most likely to be seats 48-50.
The only political ads I'm seeing here in NC now are Roy Cooper ads -- they frequently air the ones where he says, "as governor, I always funded the police."
I expect Whatley or pro Whatley PACs to start slinging mud after Labor Day.
Seems a bit strange to highlight *that*... is that what people are really concerned about right now?
One of Democrats biggest weakness is how voters perceive us on law and order. It makes sense for Cooper, who has a long track record as a prosecutor, to tackle that head on.
This is my personal pet peeve, so apologies for the repetition, but it's usually a mistake to repeat the opponent's negative attacks in the rebuttal. Cooper should have instead said "as governor I have always funded the police." The difference is subtle but it emphasizes what he positively does, not just negating an attack.
It probably won't matter as he is well ahead, but I still would have phrased it differently.
Yeah. I'll admit that I have a... "bleak" view of US law enforcement, but that's just me, and that's how I would've phrased it if I were Cooper. Gets the point across without needlessly trying to come off as "not one of *those* Democrats"
I think he's said that. I'll tweak my earlier post.
Cooper was also a moderate Democrat as Governor too. Although, to my knowledge (and correct me if I'm wrong), he didn't really fight with the left or do anything to piss off really anyone in the Democratic Party at all -- hence why he has avoided ideological opposition from either the left or conservative wings of the party (that, and he's our single best shot at flipping this seat). Probably helps that he couldn't actually do much as Governor that I know period due to (again, correct me if I'm wrong) Phil Berger and the tyrannical state legislature GOP killing anything he tried.
Cooper is a moderate Democrat who made a point of appointing progressives to judicial positions. Although the only ones who won re-election were Allison Riggs and John Arrowood.
One of the things he is most well known for is his opposition to the infamous "bathroom bill". Your average liberal democrat probably counts that in his favor.
I consider myself relatively progressive, but I was thrilled when Cooper decided to run for the senate seat since he has the demonstrated name recognition to win in a statewide race and it will be difficult to stick him with the GOP's favorite pejoratives for Democrats - "Washington insider" and "elite". Both those labels fit Michael Whatley far better than Cooper!
And I hope that Trump's "complete and total endorsement" of Whatley is a boat anchor around his neck!
We absolutely need to get out the vote in numbers that make it too big to rig AND to flip enough seats in the General Assembly to make sure that no more of Cooper's vetoes get overridden.
One Nation?
Perhaps One Conservative Nation instead.
So this motherf***er is still in the race? Maybe we shouldn’t be surprised considering he had the nerve to stay in even after being caught in a lie about his Nazi tattoo.
I think you’ll be very happy about some recent news regarding Platner’s candidacy.
With all the new information, I'll admit that I defended Platner long past his expiration date. He's truly despicable and it's a total blunder how none of this came out in vetting or in the primary.
That being said, I truly hope that this whole debacle doesn't dissuade candidates with "unconventional" backgrounds from running or from voters/party members from supporting them. Part of the appeal of the early Platner campaign was the fresh perspective he was bringing to the election, and his narrative was undeniably compelling. I think a lot of the the excitement that we've seen in insurgent primary campaigns that have gone on to win or almost win isn't rooted solely in ideology (though it's certainly a factor). It's refreshing to hear candidates like Mamdani, Osborn, Kiros, etc. talk about politics. Hell, that was part of AOC's victory back in 2018 and remains part of her identity today.
In short: fuck Graham Platner; still open to unconventional candidates, but ones with moral scruples please & thank you.
I share the same view.
I believed that people *could* change. I think it's because I've had an imperfect past, including politically... granted I was literally 13, never worked for Blackwater, never said the shit he did as a fully grown man, and never got a Nazi tattoo, but still. He seemed genuine, and because a lot of what he said/did were moreso personal shortcomings and didn't directly affect or hurt others around him, I was willing to accept and believe that he really did change as a person.
That said, the Nazi tattoo was pretty bad and I was *really* expecting and hoping that he'd drop out and a less crazy progressive option would emerge, but that didn't happen, so I reluctantly supported him based on the logic above. When the first accusations of abuse came out that went from "reluctant support" to "well, he's the nominee regardless..." I wasn't super comfortable with the idea that, because his accuser was a Republican with ties to Susan Collins, the accusations must be false, but I did understand that there was plausible deniability because of that, and gave up the idea that he could still be replaced as the nominee after he won the nomination in a massive landslide. if Maine voters believed him and weren't willing to vote against him as protest, there wasn't much I could say, y'know?
And now this comes out. I'm not even surprised... just angry and tired. Angry that he got this far, that Bernie and others who should know better enabled him to get this far, and tired of people using this as "proof" progressive candidates can't be trusted or that they're unelectable. If anything this whole ordeal almost proves how strong progressive policies are. There's no way Platner should've survived the Nazi tattoo scandal, but he did anyway because voters resonated with what he was saying. In spite of that we're definitely going to see people use this to attack candidates like El-Sayed in Michigan who is squeaky clean from personal scandals.
Of course it will dissuade candidates with unconventional backgrounds from running. Most people have baggage and some level of secret life that they don't want people to find out. After swinging from the MeToo-era extreme where a slap on the ass in the 1980s assured lifetime cancellation from polite society to the current extreme where Trump wins the Presidency after sexual assault conviction, people like Platner with sordid backgrounds but an appetite for public service make the decision to test the public's willingness for unlimited forgiveness.
Had this rape charge not come up, he'd have probably gotten away with it. Since it did come up and he's gonna be (rightfully) chased off the stage, it will absolutely have a dulling effect on "unconventional" candidate recruitment. Particularly in the online era where the temptation for stupid behavior and the increased capacity to document it and penalize it coexist, fewer and fewer "unconventional" candidates are gonna deem themselves clean enough to pass the test when they do a gut check. We better thus prepare ourselves for even more candidates who look and feel like they were grown in labs....having spent their whole lives being groomed for careers in politics. Everybody else is gonna be too "human" to run, and unable to hide from past indiscretions the way their grandfathers were.
I’m not sure it’s so black and white.
-Platner’s use of social media amplified his problems. No disrespect to anyone using Reddit but if I were running for political office, there’s no way my account would be known to the public as I have anonymity.
-He also used Bumble which apparently got him into one of his last relationships. Bumble like many dating apps can allow both users to keep old messages if not already deleted.
I have always thought it was crazy for celebrities and politicians to use social media in the first place. Yes, it’s important to stay connected but you are compromising your own privacy this way.
The lesson from Maine is simple: When someone repeatedly shows us who he is – as Graham Platner has done very thoroughly through many years – we ignore it at our peril. And when those responsible for vetting totally botch their job, then it rises to political malpractice.
Those responsible for it should never be allowed near another major campaign ever again. I hope no one forgets. People tried warning about how this guy was bad news. For some reason, his backers kept giving him an undeserved narrative that he had “changed” or “learned.”
The people who need to “change” and “learn” are those who embraced and endorsed Platner, and continued applauding him, even as his shit kept piling up so high – that the shit inevitably hit the fan.
It seems that those people were just as drunk as Platner allegedly was when he got his Totenkopf tattoo.
Sadly there is no formal “vetting” process that parties do. People run if/when they want to, and bad stuff almost always comes out because rival campaigns pay opposition researchers to dig it up.
Whoever recruited Platner should be blacklisted but equally so should the people who ran Janet Mills' campaign. Says a lot that the worst things to come out about Platner had nothing to do with Mills or her campaign
Yeah, far too few realize it was the Mills campaign's job to fully investigate him. It was obvious from virtually her entry that she was far behind and she couldn't defeat him on issues so they HAD to bring him down on background and character and they did nothing (beyond repeating what was already in the press and well known) to find the whole village worth of skeletons in Platner's closet!
While this is true, Racicot didn't come forward until a couple days ago, and she explicitly said she wasn't ready to come forward until now. Some things just aren't find-out-able when it's most convenient.
Louisiana State Sen. Larry Selders (D-Baton Rouge) has died at 44 years of age:
https://www.instagram.com/p/DahRgarD1re/?igsh=dXhrZXQ1ZXZrbjV0
Thanks for reposting. I did it kind of late last night.
He was at his son's football practice, and was only in the Senate for a little over a year after succeeding now Rep. Cleo Fields.
Way too young. RIP.
I (like pretty much everyone else here) have been thinking about the Graham Platner situation and how he had so many red flags yet made it so far because people really liked his message. I wonder if part of the reason for this is because he caught the attention of tons of people who had not been highly involved in politics and therefore haven't learned or come to terms with the fact that people who run for office are sometimes going to disappoint you.
Platner was popular with young people who were newly tuning into politics and older people who felt inspired to tune into politics again. They had a vague understanding that politicians are sketchy, but these people really felt seen and heard by Platner. When they finally felt like they had found a politician they resonated with, they didn't want to think or accept that they could be let down by him too, so they refused to be.
This kind of blinders when people get overly attached to a politician apply to a whole lot more than just Platner
To state the obvious, Trump. This whole saga showed Democratic voters are also susceptible to a cult-like mentality around a candidate as the GOP has been for over a decade.
Exactly who I had in mind, yes
With the small difference that when our candidate was accused of sexual assault we dropped him instead of nominated him for President three times in a row.
Are you thinking of someone who ran in Democratic presidential primaries or just Platner?
Franken and Swalwell as well. We have a demonstrated zero tolerance policy for sexual assault/harassment (at least, once it becomes a news story *looks at the Swalwell story*) and that's a good thing.
I was thinking of Bill Clinton. That's a long time ago, though, and it's unclear whether there was ever strong evidence of more than consensual sex on his part.
I'm saying that Democrats are not as susceptible because Trump's sexual assault allegations solidified his support and caused his supporters to rally around him while Platner's has led to him being abandoned by the party. There's nothing wrong with getting excited by a new kind of candidate, and I think trying to chastise Democrats for liking Platner in October is just a psyop by Republicans who can't sleep at night because they know better than how they've behaved for the last decade.
Well, we dropped him because there's a clock ticking toward the need to replace him on the ballot. If this came out two weeks from now and he couldn't be replaced on the ballot, I suspect Democrats would have circled the wagons.
I agree, I'm just saying that Platner is the most recent high profile example of this. And my line of thinking is that people who are newly tuning into politics or returning to politics because they've historically felt overlooked and now feel heard are most susceptable to having these blinders. People need to learn (often the hard way) that idolizing politicians as infallable and digging one's heels in the sand for them when they no longer deserve support is incorrect, and that its okay to feel disappointed by a politician you liked. It's part of politics.
I'm not claiming this to be an original take. Just one that I had and think is important to point out.
Absolutely. I wasn’t intending to come off as dismissive
[I posted about this late yesterday, but commenting again when more people will see.]
Nigel Farage, architect of Brexit, leader of the far-right Reform UK party, and erstwhile poll-leader for the still far-off 2029 UK parliamentary elections, resigned his seat in parliament only to announce his intention to stand in the by-election to replace himself. The purpose of this was to quash a parliamentary investigation into massive "gifts" he received from crypto billionaires (including convicted fraudsters) which he never declared, despite the legal obligation to do so. You see, if you're no longer a member of parliament, then can't investigate you, can they? He also described the upcoming by-election as a "people vs. establishment" contest, that would re-establish his legitimacy. Farage got his parliamentary seat by shopping out the most pro-Reform constituency in the country, Clacton, and had little doubt he could win again there.
Funny thing happened though, all of the major parties have refused to participate in this farce. And thus far, it looks like the only opponent Farage will face will be Count Binface. Binface is as satirical who has stood in a good number of elections, campaigning with a rubbish bin over his head. Binface's manifesto for the Clacton by-election includes such points as "Cap the price of a croissant at £1", "Make water company bosses swim in polluted rivers", and "Build at least one affordable house".
Ironically, Farage might indeed have to make a serious effort to fend off Binface. It will at least be a interesting test of how sick people are of his political antics.
The second funniest thing that could happen is that Binface ends up performing really well as a protest vote
You already know what the funniest thing would be
Don't blame me- I voted for Count Binface. /s
I am more of a Lord Buckethead fan, but Count Binface will do, if needed...
Can't they just start investigating him again once he's back in office?
I was about to ask the same thing. Is he just going to keep resigning and running for re-election, repeatedly?
Is there a word for that? Re-resigning?
I think they can’t expel him if there has been another election, but I’m not entirely sure.
that seems plausible.
They never could’ve expelled him. The harshest punishment from the investigation is a suspension from parliament. That will then open a recall petition in Clacton where 10% of the electorate must then sign it in a week (I believe it is, might be 2 weeks) for a by-election to be triggered.
The investigation will resume as it was left off once he’s re-elected
Surely Count Binface should expand his manifesto thusly:
"Cap the price of crudites and croissants at £1."
.
It would by hysterical if Count Binface beat Shitface Farage – and made him go for a swim! Preferably far away, over the English Channel.
Ahhh yes, Nigel Farage is pulling a Trump by being pro-crypto.
He's such a fraud.
Personally, I am support Member McMemberface as I think croissants should absolutely cost more than a pound #teamcrumpet
In terms of other candidates, the extremely minor far-right Reclaim Party and British Democrats are looking to stand candidates, as are the single-issue Rejoin EU Party, the Monster Raving Looney Party, and a couple of absolute nobodies. Doesn't look like it will quite be a straight Reform-Binface fight, but that is probably what the dynamic will end up being, lol
For clarification, the announced reclaim candidate (and their leader), Lawrence Fox got less votes in the 2021 London mayoral election than two satirical YouTubers aimed at teenagers (Niko Omilana and Max Fosh).
MN-Gov-R - A pollster called Big Data Poll has Mike Lindell leading Lisa DeMuth and Kendall Qualls 25-20-10:
https://www.threads.com/@thedatanerd13/post/DaiI2ShjabP
Qualls is the Minnesota GOP convention-endorsed candidate, DeMuth is the state house speaker, and Lindell is a pillow magnate and conspiracy theorist.
The pollster, to my knowledge, did not release numbers for ether party's U.S. Senate primary or the Democratic gubernatorial primary, although the latter is only nominally competitive.
Apparently the poll was commissioned by Lindell's campaign, but he seems to be leading the few polls of the race taken so far
Considering the massive hole the GOP starts in the Twin Cities now due to January 2026, if they really were dumb enough to nominate Lindell, what kind of slaughter would Klobuchar lay down upon him and what kind of coattails could that produce?
I think the 2 mildly competitive House seats would still be out of reach?
Meh. Maybe 12 points. I don't think it'd be as lopsided as you're imagining. Klobuchar beat Royce White by 16 points in 2024. I don't think Lindell would be as terrible of a candidate as Royce White was.
They seem to be equally as bad, and people are more willing to vote for the "other" party in state elections compared to federal elections, and the environment is bluer. I'm guessing over 20 points, easilly.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UVESpeFmRDw&t
(if you click the link, it seems to start at some different point in the video and I can't get it to start from the beginning. My apologies.)
Great rundown on the Graham Platner controversy from progressive commentator Mike Figueredo, who's one of my favorites. It does touch on a few forbidden topics, which is almost inevitable when discussing Platner's campaign and the broader ideological divides in the Democratic Party.
IL-HD-103/Champaign County, IL Clerk - Illinois State Rep. Carol Ammons (D-Urbana) and her husband, Champaign County, IL Clerk Aaron Ammons, have been indicated on federal wire fraud, witness tampering, and perjury charges:
https://www.wcia.com/news/champaign-county/aaron-carol-ammons-indicted-for-wire-fraud-obstruction-of-justice
The Ammons family is well-known in the Chanpaign-Urbana area for using nepotism and political connections to get multiple members of their family elected to various public offices.
I don't know what the deadline is for the Ammonses to withdraw from their re-election campaigns and allow the Democratic precinct committeepeople to slate replacement nominees. HD-103 is probably way too Democratic-leaning for a GOP win even with a major scandal, although Champaign County as a whole is still amenable to voting for Republicans.
I mean you never know... Joseph Cao won the election for Louisiana's second congressional district in 2008 due to the incumbent being embroiled in scandal. In the same election, the district voted 74% for Obama
That said it was a different time and different circumstances. In the Trump era, partisanship is probably of bigger importance to voters. Cao was also uniquely well crafted for his district and was among the most liberal of Republicans at the time, whereas I'd imagine the Republican nominee in this district is yet another lunatic.
It's funny how politics used to have crazy stories like that. I believe Hawaii elected a Republican Rep at one point in 2009-ish due to a split field (EDIT: Charles Djou). Back in the 1990s, the Republican Revolution took out Ways and Means chair Dan Rostenkowski and replaced him with a right-wing Republican. George Nethercutt taking out then-speaker Tom Foley in the same election too, Democrat Doug Jones winning in Alabama due to a radioactive GOP nominee, probably a ton of other such stories in political history.
Which leads me to a question -- any other crazy "Republican/Democrat wins in seat they weren't expected to win in" situations that people here remember? Not just upsets, but striking upsets in seemingly unfriendly territory or against powerful individuals?
The Hawaii election was in 2010 for the 1st, between Republican Honolulu councilor Charles Djou, former Democratic Rep. Ed Case, and Democratic state Sen. Colleen Hanabusa. Djou defeated Case and Hanabusa in the special, but Hanabusa defeated him in November. She subsequently retired two cycles later, came back a cycle after that after Democrat Mark Takai died in office, and then retired again in 2018, with Case holding the seat since. Now she has died, and Djou served in the Biden administration.
There's plenty of 1994 and 2010 races like that, but since we're on the topic of 2010, Joe Walsh beating Melissa Bean was a big one, as well as Blake Farenthold beating Solomon Ortiz. Both of those seats were pretty Democratic.
And Melissa Bean is all but set to make a comeback in IL-08 in the general.
As for Joe Walsh, after his time in Congress was up and lost his radio show for being too-anti Trump, he left the GOP to become Independent, and then a Dem.
Heidi Heitkamp in the 2012 ND-Sen race, although that seat had a retiring Democratic-NPL incumbent in a state that was already seen as trending away from Democrats.
The election was delayed until December 2008 due to Hurricane Gustav (LA-4 as well). If the election was held at the same time as the presidential election, I fully believe Bill Jefferson would have won reelection. Paul Carmouche too.
ME-SEN:
If Troy Jackson ends up replacing Graham Platner as the Senate nominee, he may be able to fire up the base just fine.
Here's a speech of him when he was a gubernatorial candidate at the Fighting Oligarchy rally back in May.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=reaftyCKd3I
Should have been the nominee to begin with
Well, that's no one's fault but his.
Nope, definitely not
He said it would be "self-serving" if Platner stayed in. What ended up being self serving was him and the others who ran for governor.
it was self-serving for troy, a man dedicated to the state, to run for governor, after watching many of his initiatives vetoed by Mills?
Not Troy specifically. Him and some of the other gubernatorial candidates that could have ran for Senate.
https://www.wlky.com/article/elaine-chao-mitch-mcconnell-health-statement/71858467
Elaine Chao, the wife of Sen. Mitch McConnell, is back in the U.S. after a trip to China, and says her husband's condition didn't warrant a cancelation of the trip.
I can’t blame her for not giving a shit about Mitch, even if they are married.
After public outrage, partisan NC State Board of Elections operative Dallas Woodhouse has been "reassigned" when personal text messages came out of him encouraging GOP county board members to vote against early voting sites at college campuses in NC.
https://www.wral.com/news/nccapitol/state-auditor-dave-boliek-dallas-woodhouse-reassigned-liaison-july-2026/
This was apparently at the request of state auditor, Dave Boliek, who hired this partisan hack.
Every time I hear about Dallas Woodhouse, I'm reminded of the time when he and his brother, Brad (who's a Democratic activist) went on C-SPAN to promote the book they wrote together titled "Woodhouse Divided". Their mother called in unexpectedly and chastised the two of them for fighting about politics during holiday gatherings.
Here's the video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q15xhG6pVUw
Dallas needs quality prison time alongside his peers like Cleta Mitchell.
https://chargerswire.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/state/2026/07/06/will-rhode-island-buck-national-trends-in-the-2026-elections-ballot-explainer/90745503007/
The next establishment/progressive high-profile Democratic primary could be the race for mayor of Providence, Rhode Island, where incumbent Brett Smiley is attempting to fend off the DSA-backed state Rep. David Morales in September.
Statewide, there's an obvious anti-incumbency sentiment as Gov. Dan McKee is down double digits in most polls against Helena Foulkes. But it's unsure as to whether Morales can harness progressive strength to oust Smiley. In 2023's special election for Congress, the more moderate Gabe Amo defeated progressive state Rep. Aaron Regunberg in a seat that includes half of the city of Providence.
All the while, conservative groups are making a bigger push to gain traction in the state this year, with them fielding candidates through the "League of Rhode Island Businesses". Despite this, Republicans failed to get a prominent candidate for governor such as state Sen. Jessica De La Cruz.
interesting to see conservatives try to grab a bigger toehold in RI, from what I've read the state is more socially conservative than I thought, but otherwise very partisanly blue
Very, very Catholic state, both amongst old guard Italians and then a very large Dominican/Puerto Rican population too
I'm surprised it's held up as well as it has for Democrats in the Trump era. I'll continue to keep an eye on it moving forward because its demographics are not consistent with the emerging Democratic coalition.
Small and densely populated urban state offsets some of the education gap.
Most of the state lives in the Providence metro area. Fairly well educated, rank 16 by bachelor's attainment and rank 12 for degrees above that -- better than California on both metrics. Rank 14 on median household income, basically tied with Minnesota.
While it is a fairly white state, (1) it's not overwhelmingly so at ~70%, and (2) white is not a demographic group that we struggle with in New England.
What demographic issues do you see for us with Rhode Island specifically?
If I was going to be worried about our prospects in the state it would be from the potential of it being economically hollowed out as companies move from Providence to Boston, but I don't think that's happening to enough of a degree to cause issues.
Disproportionately large demographics of working-class Catholics--Italians, Portuguese, and Puerto Ricans.....all groups that moved very sharply against Democrats in 2024 after edging more narrowly against them in previous cycles. The old guard and the emerging minority are both a handful of cycles deep into a straight-line MAGA realignment that I suspect could be durable.
Obviously, there's the upscale coastal population which is trending the other direction and offsetting the Providence County collapse, but I still think it's a state to watch.
How are you defining the "disproportionately large working class" metric?
Not trying to be a pain here! I don't know where I'd get that specific data so I can't explicitly say true/false there. But based on the education and income data I'd be surprised to find that as accurate.
Providence itself has consistently grown in every census starting with 1990, including growth after the 2020 census. Same detail for Providence county. No population collapse there.
And lots of Portuguese
Yes thank you that too