I wouldn't call this "blue wave" polling. But it also doesn't point to a Trump lead in the EC. The overall picture is pretty consistent - a very close race with a slight tilt to Harris.
I wouldn't call this "blue wave" polling. But it also doesn't point to a Trump lead in the EC. The overall picture is pretty consistent - a very close race with a slight tilt to Harris.
Don't waves typically materialize in the final 1-2 weeks? Plus, there is so little reliable House polling its hard to say which seats will be swept up until we get some actual results.
Waves in a presidential year are pretty hard to come by to begin with. The last one would have been 2008 - and that materialized well before the election (I would argue in fact in 2006.)
The 2018 wave was also pretty evident long before the voting started (I mean we picked up a Senate seat in Alabama in late 2017 among other overachievements.)
As I recall, Doug Jones won because of the GOPтАЩs "candidate quality problem". That issue seems even more prominent in this cycle, which explains why all the Democratic Senate incumbents except Jon Tester are polling well.
With challengers Mucarsel-Powell in Florida and Allred in Texas having longshot chances, we may just hold the Senate тАУ despite an outrageously difficult map.
An aside: I do wish President Biden had appointed Doug Jones as Attorney General, rather than Merrick Garland.
Candidate quality was obviously a problem that year in Alabama, but if HRC (or any Dem) have won in 2016 you can bet that there just wouldn't have been enough enthusiasm to steal that seat.
So anything at 5+ is at wave level imo. ThereтАЩs been a few polls that have shown that. TheyтАЩre outliers, but theyтАЩre more frequent than ones showing Trump winning nationally.
What I see the polling showing is the blue wall fortifying, NV is far and away the least polled of the swing states and I think she's probably doing a little better there than the polling would indicate based on the state's history in that regard plus because its been been less polled the shitty right wing pollsters have had a disproportionate impact on the averages there. But NC looks like a total coin flip and Trump looks like he has a slight edge in AZ and GA.
I wouldn't call this "blue wave" polling. But it also doesn't point to a Trump lead in the EC. The overall picture is pretty consistent - a very close race with a slight tilt to Harris.
Don't waves typically materialize in the final 1-2 weeks? Plus, there is so little reliable House polling its hard to say which seats will be swept up until we get some actual results.
Waves in a presidential year are pretty hard to come by to begin with. The last one would have been 2008 - and that materialized well before the election (I would argue in fact in 2006.)
The 2018 wave was also pretty evident long before the voting started (I mean we picked up a Senate seat in Alabama in late 2017 among other overachievements.)
As I recall, Doug Jones won because of the GOPтАЩs "candidate quality problem". That issue seems even more prominent in this cycle, which explains why all the Democratic Senate incumbents except Jon Tester are polling well.
With challengers Mucarsel-Powell in Florida and Allred in Texas having longshot chances, we may just hold the Senate тАУ despite an outrageously difficult map.
An aside: I do wish President Biden had appointed Doug Jones as Attorney General, rather than Merrick Garland.
Candidate quality was obviously a problem that year in Alabama, but if HRC (or any Dem) have won in 2016 you can bet that there just wouldn't have been enough enthusiasm to steal that seat.
Agree about Jones vs Garland.
Had a Dem won in 2016 that election wouldn't have happened at all, as Sessions obviously wouldn't have been appointed to anything.
For me, this is how I view ratings:
Tilt 0-2 points
Lean 2-5 points
Likely 5-10 points
Safe 10+ points
So anything at 5+ is at wave level imo. ThereтАЩs been a few polls that have shown that. TheyтАЩre outliers, but theyтАЩre more frequent than ones showing Trump winning nationally.
I recall that Obama won by about 8 in 2008 and brought something like 18 flipped House seats with him. That was a wave.
Ah, those halcyon days of youth. I was actively disappointed in the breadth of the Obama 2008 wave.
What I see the polling showing is the blue wall fortifying, NV is far and away the least polled of the swing states and I think she's probably doing a little better there than the polling would indicate based on the state's history in that regard plus because its been been less polled the shitty right wing pollsters have had a disproportionate impact on the averages there. But NC looks like a total coin flip and Trump looks like he has a slight edge in AZ and GA.