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Em Jay's avatar

Don't waves typically materialize in the final 1-2 weeks? Plus, there is so little reliable House polling its hard to say which seats will be swept up until we get some actual results.

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Tom A's avatar

Waves in a presidential year are pretty hard to come by to begin with. The last one would have been 2008 - and that materialized well before the election (I would argue in fact in 2006.)

The 2018 wave was also pretty evident long before the voting started (I mean we picked up a Senate seat in Alabama in late 2017 among other overachievements.)

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ArcticStones's avatar

As I recall, Doug Jones won because of the GOPтАЩs "candidate quality problem". That issue seems even more prominent in this cycle, which explains why all the Democratic Senate incumbents except Jon Tester are polling well.

With challengers Mucarsel-Powell in Florida and Allred in Texas having longshot chances, we may just hold the Senate тАУ despite an outrageously difficult map.

An aside: I do wish President Biden had appointed Doug Jones as Attorney General, rather than Merrick Garland.

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Tom A's avatar

Candidate quality was obviously a problem that year in Alabama, but if HRC (or any Dem) have won in 2016 you can bet that there just wouldn't have been enough enthusiasm to steal that seat.

Agree about Jones vs Garland.

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Mike in MD's avatar

Had a Dem won in 2016 that election wouldn't have happened at all, as Sessions obviously wouldn't have been appointed to anything.

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