Not sure who that pollster is in Ohio, but should we be worried about Sherrod Brown? He seemed to have a mid-single digit lead for most of this cycle...
Not sure who that pollster is in Ohio, but should we be worried about Sherrod Brown? He seemed to have a mid-single digit lead for most of this cycle...
Yea that's Scott Rasmussen who was apparently the founder of Rasmussen before he left. I guess he's fairly credible? Hard to say tho since there's been limited polling in Ohio. There was also that online Activote poll showing brown trailing but it took place well over a month. There's also the Morning Consult poll that still shows him up by 2 recently too.
Considering that J.D. Vance won in 2022, we can't feel sure any candidate is too bad for Ohioans to elect or any Democrat is too good for them to defeat.
JD Vance also led in the polls the whole time and Tim Ryan did not. Granted 2022 for the OH-SEN race was for an open race, the fact that Ryan didn't cut down the margin enough may have been in part because he was an incumbent.
Brown's led in the polls most of the time by 5-5+% points. The way they've moved recently seems to me that the GOP is now tuning in more than they used to. If Brown loses, I doubt it's going to be as much as Ryan lost in 2022 if polling suggests.
Was Vance that controversial in 2022 though? He was pretty close to standard right wing Republican if I recall correctly, though a political lightweight. Him winning really a surprise. Most of the issues only came out with his VP candidacy, which implies to be that Ryan wasn’t thorough enough in his opposition research.
It's J.D's modest 53-47 win after being propped up for years as a national rising star & "intellectual" in a Dem Presidents midterm with 7% inflation that gives me hope Brown can squeeze out a win. Under no illusion, it will be easy though.
Yes, this has nothing to do with Brown who’s still a great senator and candidate. But sometimes the ground under you shifts and there’s little you can do. I still think he can hang on though.
I'm not worried about him but that's just me. The reason why the polls are the way they are is because more voters are paying attention to the OH-SEN race, namely those who are Republicans.
The problem for the GOP is, Brown has led in the polls for much of the election cycle by 5+% points. Sure, polls may tighten or move in different directions, but if the GOP couldn't cut down on his lead for this amount of time, it suggests the following:
1) Brown still has clout and incumbency status in OH.
2) Moreno is really a flawed candidate who hasn't presented a credible enough campaign. Maybe he's getting more attention now but he's polling worse than Tim Sheehy in the MT-SEN race, which is saying a lot.
Not sure who that pollster is in Ohio, but should we be worried about Sherrod Brown? He seemed to have a mid-single digit lead for most of this cycle...
Yes. He could lose. I give him a little better than 50-50. He’s lucky he got Moreno as an opponent.
Moreno also recently provided fodder: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/ohio-gop-senate-candidate-bernie-moreno-abortion-issue-women-over-50/
And Brown has a staunchly pro-choice voting record so this problem Moreno has can give him an opening.
It may, but that didn't help in 2022.
That's the real Rasmussen(not the fake one he sold out to)
We should absolutely worry about Brown.
And work and contribute to help him win.
Especially since we aren’t getting any better in the Buckeye State.
Yeah, but Deb Mucarsel-Powell is doing pretty well, and rising, in the Hurricane/Plywood/Alligator State.
Of course.
Yea that's Scott Rasmussen who was apparently the founder of Rasmussen before he left. I guess he's fairly credible? Hard to say tho since there's been limited polling in Ohio. There was also that online Activote poll showing brown trailing but it took place well over a month. There's also the Morning Consult poll that still shows him up by 2 recently too.
Imo activote has zero value
No. No he isn't.
But that said, I worry about Brown. I still think he is better than 50/50, but not by a lot.
Considering that J.D. Vance won in 2022, we can't feel sure any candidate is too bad for Ohioans to elect or any Democrat is too good for them to defeat.
JD Vance also led in the polls the whole time and Tim Ryan did not. Granted 2022 for the OH-SEN race was for an open race, the fact that Ryan didn't cut down the margin enough may have been in part because he was an incumbent.
Brown's led in the polls most of the time by 5-5+% points. The way they've moved recently seems to me that the GOP is now tuning in more than they used to. If Brown loses, I doubt it's going to be as much as Ryan lost in 2022 if polling suggests.
It doesn't matter how little he would lose by if he loses.
That is true.
Was Vance that controversial in 2022 though? He was pretty close to standard right wing Republican if I recall correctly, though a political lightweight. Him winning really a surprise. Most of the issues only came out with his VP candidacy, which implies to be that Ryan wasn’t thorough enough in his opposition research.
That's definitely a fair point, but he was certainly on the record on abortion.
It's J.D's modest 53-47 win after being propped up for years as a national rising star & "intellectual" in a Dem Presidents midterm with 7% inflation that gives me hope Brown can squeeze out a win. Under no illusion, it will be easy though.
Yes, this has nothing to do with Brown who’s still a great senator and candidate. But sometimes the ground under you shifts and there’s little you can do. I still think he can hang on though.
I'm not worried about him but that's just me. The reason why the polls are the way they are is because more voters are paying attention to the OH-SEN race, namely those who are Republicans.
The problem for the GOP is, Brown has led in the polls for much of the election cycle by 5+% points. Sure, polls may tighten or move in different directions, but if the GOP couldn't cut down on his lead for this amount of time, it suggests the following:
1) Brown still has clout and incumbency status in OH.
2) Moreno is really a flawed candidate who hasn't presented a credible enough campaign. Maybe he's getting more attention now but he's polling worse than Tim Sheehy in the MT-SEN race, which is saying a lot.
Yes. Be very, very worried about Sherrod Brown.