I predicted Tim Walz would have no more effect on the ticket in 2024 than Tim Kaine did in 2016 and it appears that was the case. Shockingly, Walz lost significant ground to Biden even in his hometown of Mankato. Not entirely sure what contributed to that...perhaps a much more conservative student body at Mankato State than four years ag…
I predicted Tim Walz would have no more effect on the ticket in 2024 than Tim Kaine did in 2016 and it appears that was the case. Shockingly, Walz lost significant ground to Biden even in his hometown of Mankato. Not entirely sure what contributed to that...perhaps a much more conservative student body at Mankato State than four years ago. Either way, Blue Earth County flipped from blue to red with the hometown boy on the ticket. Quite an embarrassment.
I think it's fair to say that Shapiro probably would have helped enough in PA to save Bob Casey but Harris would have still lost the Keystone State.
I'd say the home state bump has been dead for a while unless it's a very small state like Alaska (McCain-Palin) or Delaware (Biden). If Doug Burgum had been chosen as running mate, Trump would have probably dominated North Dakota even more strongly.
As stated prior, I think the campaign's use of Walz was their biggest mistake. They had a blue collar guy who could do the Midwestern "attack dog with a smile" routine and could help mitigate male voter losses and they just seemingly put a muzzle on him after the convention. The debate with Vance was tough to watch. I think a lot of Dem operatives are stuck in the politics of the Obama era and don't realize that SWING voters aren't looking for the polite, respectful person anymore-they want someone who will fight and get in the mud a little bit.
As for home-state bounce, I do think it's noteworthy that relative to the national PV (assuming Trump ends up at around 1.5%) Wisconsin was R+4 in 2020 and just under 0.5% D this year. MN also went from D+2.6 to D+2.75% . . so accounting for the national environment the campaign actually did do better in both states (more notably in WI where they of course ran a more active campaign)
He pumped life into the campaign, and the consultants and operatives sucked it back out. Their version of the Hippocratic oath is, first, take no chances.
It's bizarre because in the last weeks the campaign at times did take a few chances-I remember Harris doing the Fox interview was actually when I first got concerned, as a campaign with internal polling showing them ahead wouldn't have made that move. Same with the overtures to Joe Rogan.
It was like after the debate the campaign couldn't figure out whether to toss long balls or run out the clock.
Seems to me that Trump was right all along and was doing better with black and Latino men the entire time. Harris’ campaign couldn’t budge them so in the end, they went after moderate Republicans. Nail in the coffin.
I would LOVE to know the true scoop about what the Harris and Biden internals were showing going back to 2022. If O'Malley wants to do a tell-all put me down for an advance copy.
Could also argue VP picks don’t matter beyond any slight home state advantage so it wouldn’t matter to MI.
I’d still argue Walz was the correct pick compared to Shapiro. We already have one fancy ass looking lawyer on the ticket, why have two? His debate was painful, though.
Yes. I was wondering if there'd even be enough ticket splitting for her to win MN-01. I had my doubts she'd be able to hang on in MN-08 and I knew MN-06 and MN-07 were out of the question. Her 2024 showing certainly wasn't as comprehensive as her previous three runs, but as you dig into the precinct data, there was still considerable ticket-splitting.
I've done my usual deep dive into Minnesota numbers and will report on my findings for the weekend digest, but outside of the five Minnesota counties in the core of the metro area (Hennepin, Ramsey, Anoka, Dakota, and Washington), Harris won 53 communities and Klobuchar won 158. Both numbers seem abysmal compared to outstate Minnesota numbers from 10 years ago or anytime before, but it's also a fair guess that Klobuchar won in a number of places that no Democrat is likely to win again for at least a generation.
What’s so stupid with polling is we all thought maybe Klobuchar’s ticket splitting days were over and she really might win by single digits. The polls said so. She still pulled out a big win while Harris lost ground. Conundrum.
My guess is that Klobuchar juiced her numbers in the final two weeks with the combination of media scrutiny against Royce White's lack of fitness for the position and Klobuchar's one-sided advertising. The latter is not as valuable as it was in 2008 because fewer people watch ads, but I still suspect it inspired some ticket-splitting that otherwise wouldn't have happened.
I predicted Tim Walz would have no more effect on the ticket in 2024 than Tim Kaine did in 2016 and it appears that was the case. Shockingly, Walz lost significant ground to Biden even in his hometown of Mankato. Not entirely sure what contributed to that...perhaps a much more conservative student body at Mankato State than four years ago. Either way, Blue Earth County flipped from blue to red with the hometown boy on the ticket. Quite an embarrassment.
I think it's fair to say that Shapiro probably would have helped enough in PA to save Bob Casey but Harris would have still lost the Keystone State.
I'd say the home state bump has been dead for a while unless it's a very small state like Alaska (McCain-Palin) or Delaware (Biden). If Doug Burgum had been chosen as running mate, Trump would have probably dominated North Dakota even more strongly.
As stated prior, I think the campaign's use of Walz was their biggest mistake. They had a blue collar guy who could do the Midwestern "attack dog with a smile" routine and could help mitigate male voter losses and they just seemingly put a muzzle on him after the convention. The debate with Vance was tough to watch. I think a lot of Dem operatives are stuck in the politics of the Obama era and don't realize that SWING voters aren't looking for the polite, respectful person anymore-they want someone who will fight and get in the mud a little bit.
As for home-state bounce, I do think it's noteworthy that relative to the national PV (assuming Trump ends up at around 1.5%) Wisconsin was R+4 in 2020 and just under 0.5% D this year. MN also went from D+2.6 to D+2.75% . . so accounting for the national environment the campaign actually did do better in both states (more notably in WI where they of course ran a more active campaign)
He pumped life into the campaign, and the consultants and operatives sucked it back out. Their version of the Hippocratic oath is, first, take no chances.
It's bizarre because in the last weeks the campaign at times did take a few chances-I remember Harris doing the Fox interview was actually when I first got concerned, as a campaign with internal polling showing them ahead wouldn't have made that move. Same with the overtures to Joe Rogan.
It was like after the debate the campaign couldn't figure out whether to toss long balls or run out the clock.
Seems to me that Trump was right all along and was doing better with black and Latino men the entire time. Harris’ campaign couldn’t budge them so in the end, they went after moderate Republicans. Nail in the coffin.
I would LOVE to know the true scoop about what the Harris and Biden internals were showing going back to 2022. If O'Malley wants to do a tell-all put me down for an advance copy.
You can argue that Slotkin would have lost in Michigan had she picked Shapiro.
Fair point.
Could also argue VP picks don’t matter beyond any slight home state advantage so it wouldn’t matter to MI.
I’d still argue Walz was the correct pick compared to Shapiro. We already have one fancy ass looking lawyer on the ticket, why have two? His debate was painful, though.
It seems Klobuchar won only one R held seat in MN01 against an opponent basically a walking joke.
Is that your expectation?
Yes. I was wondering if there'd even be enough ticket splitting for her to win MN-01. I had my doubts she'd be able to hang on in MN-08 and I knew MN-06 and MN-07 were out of the question. Her 2024 showing certainly wasn't as comprehensive as her previous three runs, but as you dig into the precinct data, there was still considerable ticket-splitting.
I've done my usual deep dive into Minnesota numbers and will report on my findings for the weekend digest, but outside of the five Minnesota counties in the core of the metro area (Hennepin, Ramsey, Anoka, Dakota, and Washington), Harris won 53 communities and Klobuchar won 158. Both numbers seem abysmal compared to outstate Minnesota numbers from 10 years ago or anytime before, but it's also a fair guess that Klobuchar won in a number of places that no Democrat is likely to win again for at least a generation.
What’s so stupid with polling is we all thought maybe Klobuchar’s ticket splitting days were over and she really might win by single digits. The polls said so. She still pulled out a big win while Harris lost ground. Conundrum.
My guess is that Klobuchar juiced her numbers in the final two weeks with the combination of media scrutiny against Royce White's lack of fitness for the position and Klobuchar's one-sided advertising. The latter is not as valuable as it was in 2008 because fewer people watch ads, but I still suspect it inspired some ticket-splitting that otherwise wouldn't have happened.