Yes. I was wondering if there'd even be enough ticket splitting for her to win MN-01. I had my doubts she'd be able to hang on in MN-08 and I knew MN-06 and MN-07 were out of the question. Her 2024 showing certainly wasn't as comprehensive as her previous three runs, but as you dig into the precinct data, there was still considerable ticket-splitting.
I've done my usual deep dive into Minnesota numbers and will report on my findings for the weekend digest, but outside of the five Minnesota counties in the core of the metro area (Hennepin, Ramsey, Anoka, Dakota, and Washington), Harris won 53 communities and Klobuchar won 158. Both numbers seem abysmal compared to outstate Minnesota numbers from 10 years ago or anytime before, but it's also a fair guess that Klobuchar won in a number of places that no Democrat is likely to win again for at least a generation.
WhatтАЩs so stupid with polling is we all thought maybe KlobucharтАЩs ticket splitting days were over and she really might win by single digits. The polls said so. She still pulled out a big win while Harris lost ground. Conundrum.
My guess is that Klobuchar juiced her numbers in the final two weeks with the combination of media scrutiny against Royce White's lack of fitness for the position and Klobuchar's one-sided advertising. The latter is not as valuable as it was in 2008 because fewer people watch ads, but I still suspect it inspired some ticket-splitting that otherwise wouldn't have happened.
It seems Klobuchar won only one R held seat in MN01 against an opponent basically a walking joke.
Is that your expectation?
Yes. I was wondering if there'd even be enough ticket splitting for her to win MN-01. I had my doubts she'd be able to hang on in MN-08 and I knew MN-06 and MN-07 were out of the question. Her 2024 showing certainly wasn't as comprehensive as her previous three runs, but as you dig into the precinct data, there was still considerable ticket-splitting.
I've done my usual deep dive into Minnesota numbers and will report on my findings for the weekend digest, but outside of the five Minnesota counties in the core of the metro area (Hennepin, Ramsey, Anoka, Dakota, and Washington), Harris won 53 communities and Klobuchar won 158. Both numbers seem abysmal compared to outstate Minnesota numbers from 10 years ago or anytime before, but it's also a fair guess that Klobuchar won in a number of places that no Democrat is likely to win again for at least a generation.
WhatтАЩs so stupid with polling is we all thought maybe KlobucharтАЩs ticket splitting days were over and she really might win by single digits. The polls said so. She still pulled out a big win while Harris lost ground. Conundrum.
My guess is that Klobuchar juiced her numbers in the final two weeks with the combination of media scrutiny against Royce White's lack of fitness for the position and Klobuchar's one-sided advertising. The latter is not as valuable as it was in 2008 because fewer people watch ads, but I still suspect it inspired some ticket-splitting that otherwise wouldn't have happened.