Morning Digest: GOP billionaires flood Wisconsin with cash, but Democrats are leading

Conservative megadonors have poured in $22 million as Democrats hope for a trifecta

Rep. Tom Tiffany, Republican nominee for Wisconsin governor. (Credit: Tom Tiffany website)

Leading Off

WI-Gov

A trio of conservative billionaires is spending like wild to stop Wisconsin Democrats from winning complete control of state government, but the latest survey from the state’s top pollster shows Democrats hanging on to a narrow lead.

New financial disclosures released Wednesday night showed Republican Tom Tiffany taking in over $26 million from July 1 through Sept. 23 for his campaign to succeed Gov. Tony Evers, a Democrat who is not seeking a third term. But over $90% of his funds came via a transfer from the state Republican Party, which touted its “record fundraising haul” as “a signal” the GOP was in for a strong election.

Democrats, though, were quick to point out that Tiffany’s huge tally came almost entirely thanks to three especially well-heeled benefactors.

In particular, they noted that Richard and Elizabeth Uihlein, a married couple who have long been two of the nation’s most prolific conservative donors, together contributed $22 million to the state GOP. Another conservative megadonor, Diane Hendricks, gave almost $6 million more.

“These billionaires aren’t spending this kind of money to help Wisconsin families,” Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, Tiffany’s Democratic rival in next month’s race, said in a statement Thursday.

“They’re doing it because they know Congressman Tom Tiffany will do their bidding, the same way he did in Washington when he protected billionaires in the Epstein files and gave his donors massive tax cuts,” he continued.

Crowley raised just over $10 million during the same time period, but Tiffany’s huge financial advantage has yet to translate into a polling lead.

The same day fundraising reports were due, Marquette University Law School, long the Badger State’s most respected pollster, released a survey showing Crowley outpacing Tiffany 49-46.

That wasn’t far off the 49-44 edge for Crowley that the school found in August shortly after he won the Democratic primary in a dramatic upset, even though he’s been heavily outspent on the airwaves. The Washington Post, citing data from AdImpact, reported on Thursday that Tiffany’s side has spent or reserved $40 million on ads, compared to $24 million for Democrats.

However, there’s one sign that this blitz from Tiffany, who began attacking Crowley before the Democrat could respond in kind, is having a more dramatic impact. Marquette showed Crowley’s favorable ratings dropping from a positive 38-31 spread to an underwater 36-45 score.

But Tiffany’s heavy spending didn’t improve his negative standing: The congressman’s rating ticked down slightly from 43-47 to 43-49. Donald Trump, likewise, saw his approvals in this swing state drop from an already-poor 43-57 spread down to 40-59.

Tiffany, though, retains a considerable monetary advantage despite his heavy spending. The congressman ended the most recent reporting period with $12 million on hand, compared to just under $3 million for Crowley.

While Wisconsin caps direct donations to gubernatorial candidates to gubernatorial candidates at $20,000, the Uihleins and Hendricks were able to easily bypass that limit and power what former state Democratic chair Ben Wikler, in remarks to the Post, characterized as a “Thanos glove of Republican money.”

That’s because, thanks to what Tiffany himself acknowledged was a “billionaire loophole” last year in an interview with PBS Wisconsin, state law allows individuals to donate as much as they want to political parties. Those entities can then transfer unlimited amounts to candidates.

Crowley has also benefited from this provision, which Tiffany voted for in 2015 when he was in the legislature, but to a far lesser extent. Close to $3 million of his haul came from the state Democratic Party, which received $1 million apiece from Democratic Gov. JB Pritzker of Illinois and Lynde Uihlein, a cousin of Richard Uihlein who supports liberal candidates.

But the conservative branch of the Uihlein family, which founded the now-defunct Schlitz Brewing Company in the 19th century, shows no sign of letting up on its heavy spending in Wisconsin or elsewhere.

Richard and Elizabeth Uihlein, the founders of the eponymous shipping and packaging giant, have also financed a group helping Republican Lisa Demuth in her underdog bid for governor in neighboring Minnesota, along with GOP candidates running for the state’s closely divided legislature.

Democrats in Wisconsin are likewise aiming to take control of their state Senate and Assembly, which Republicans have held for well over a decade. If Democrats accomplish both tasks while electing Crowley, they’d recreate the state government “trifecta” they won in 2008 only to lose two years later in the national GOP wave.

Marquette’s poll gives them reason for cautious optimism. It shows 48% of respondents prefer Democratic candidates for the legislature while 45% say they’ll vote for Republicans, a spread identical to Crowley’s edge over Tiffany.

A 3-point advantage would have been nowhere near enough to flip either chamber under the maps the GOP drew up after the 2010 and 2020 censuses. However, things are very different now following a 2023 state Supreme Court decision that led to new boundaries that finally reflect this purple state’s political lean.

Republicans are defending an 18-15 majority in the Senate, where half the seats are up each cycle, and a 54-45 advantage in the Assembly, whose members all go before voters every two years. Democrats therefore need to net just two seats in the upper chamber and five in the lower. (At the Recombobulation Area, Wisconsin journalist Dan Shafer recently analyzed the entire battlefield for both the Senate and the Assembly.)

Several other state government offices are on the ballot this year, including the powerful post of attorney general. Democratic incumbent Josh Kaul faces a rematch against Fond du Lac County District Attorney Eric Toney, the Republican he defeated by a narrow 49.4 to 48.8 margin in 2022.

The contest, though, has yet to attract the same level of interest from influential donors as the governor’s race. Kaul outraised Toney roughly $600,000 to $560,000 during the most recent fundraising period and posted a $1.7 million to $1.1 million advantage in cash on hand.

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Republicans are looking sooo rusty

3Q Fundraising

The third fundraising quarter of the year, covering the period from July 1 through Sept. 30, has come to an end, meaning federal candidates must file campaign finance reports with the FEC by Oct. 15. (Candidates for state and local office often file disclosures on different timetables.)

As per usual, though, campaigns eager to tout their hauls are sharing numbers early. We’ve gathered all such releases below and will continue to do so until just before the reporting deadline. After that date, we’ll release charts for all congressional incumbents and notable non-incumbents.

• CO-05: Jessica Killin (D): $1.8 million raised (includes $125,000 self-funded)

• IA-01: Christina Bohannan (D): $2.7 million raised

• NY-17: Cait Conley (D): $5 million raised

• NY-21:

  • Blake Gendebien (D): $2 million raised.

  • Anthony Constantino (R): $4 million self-funded, $4 million cash on hand

• PA-07: Bob Brooks (D): $2.5 million raised

• VA-01: Shannon Taylor (D): $2 million raised

Senate

NE-Sen

A day after the launch of a new ad lambasting him for pardoning a convicted rapist in 2022, Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts responded to the attacks, prompting a furious response from the rapist’s victim.

On Tuesday, a super PAC supporting independent Dan Osborn in Nebraska’s Senate race released an ad narrated by Jodi Snogren, whose then-husband, John Arias, raped her in 1993. Arias was later pardoned by a panel that included Ricketts, who was then governor and voted in favor. That allowed Arias to once again purchase firearms and have his name removed from sex offender registries.

Ricketts did not comment on the ad until the following day, when he was questioned about it on a conference call.

“As a husband and father of two girls, my heart goes out to Miss Snogren,” he said, according to Nebraska Public Media. “This was a terrible crime, and all accusations of sexual assault should be investigated and fully prosecuted under the law.”

“That was true of this crime Mr. Arias committed against his wife. A pardon in Nebraska does not excuse anyone from jail time. In this case, the full sentence was first served. The pardon was granted nearly three decades after the crime,” he continued.

“And anyone who knows me knows that I’ve always protected Nebraskans,” he added, according to audio shared by 6 News WOWT. “That is my job, and it always has been. Suggesting otherwise simply spreads lies about my record and uses a tragic situation to do so.”

When asked if he still stands behind the pardon, Ricketts said, “I made the best decision I could at the time with the information I had.”

That response did not sit well with Snogren.

“Pete Ricketts says he protects Nebraskans, but he didn’t protect me,” she said in a statement. “He put my rapist’s rights before mine. I was never even given the chance to testify at my attacker’s pardon hearing, and it’s incredibly painful that the Senator is refusing to take responsibility for that.”

“Pete Ricketts has had years to apologize to me and my children for not allowing our voices to be heard, and, while he apparently has time to get back to reporters, we’ve never heard a word from him,” she added.

House

OH-10

Outside groups from both parties have booked millions in the race between Republican Rep. Mike Turner and Democrat Kristina Knickerbocker, the Ohio Signal reports, a major escalation in the Dayton-area constituency that the 12-term congressman has always won by double digits.

The Signal, citing data from the GOP firm Medium Buying, says that Democratic outfits have reserved about $4.3 million to aid Knickerbocker, an Air Force veteran and nurse practitioner, in Ohio’s 10th District. GOP groups, meanwhile, have booked around $2.3 million to defend the congressman.

Turner flipped a previous version of this seat in 2002 just one year after losing reelection as mayor of Dayton, but he’s demonstrated considerably more staying power in Congress. The closest Democrats have ever come to beating him was in 2018 during Donald Trump’s first midterm, but that year’s blue wave didn’t stop him from prevailing 56-42.

Turner, despite speculation to the contrary, announced in January that he’d seek a 13th term representing the 10th, which Donald Trump would have carried 53-46. Knickerbocker launched her campaign the following day, arguing the congressman had failed to do enough to address the rising cost of living during his more than two decades in Congress.

Grab Bag

Bolts has released its extensive election night cheat sheet covering more than 660 races from coast to coast, a resource you’ll want to bookmark and reference frequently during the final month leading up to Nov. 3 and in the days after.

The guide includes plenty of races familiar to readers of The Downballot, but some will be new, including several battles in Texas where Democrats are looking to win suburban counties that have long been controlled by Republicans.

There’s tons more to see in Bolts’ guide, which starts at the top of the ticket and goes all the way down to the most local of races, like this year’s contests for seats on the Rent Board in Berkeley, California.

Poll Pile

All polls must comply with The Downballot’s requirements.

• AL-Sen: RMG Research for Alabama Policy Action:

  • Barry Moore (R): 54, Everett Wess (D): 33.

  • Alabama Policy Action is a conservative group.

• IA-Sen: Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research for Fox News:

  • Josh Turek (D): 49, Ashley Hinson (R): 47.

• ME-Sen: Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research for the AARP:

  • Troy Jackson (D): 50, Susan Collins (R-inc): 47.

• TX-Sen: Beacon/Shaw:

  • James Talarico (D): 51, Ken Paxton (R): 49.

• AK-Gov: Cygnal:

  • Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D): 44, Bernadette Wilson (R): 24, Treg Taylor (R): 9, Dave Bronson: 8.

  • Cygnal, a Republican firm, did not say if this poll was done on behalf of a client. Its memo, however, describes Wilson as “the only Republican with a realistic path to victory.” The memo did not include a simulation of the ranked-choice voting process.

• AL-Gov: RMG:

  • Tommy Tuberville (R): 50, Doug Jones (D): 37.

• IA-Gov: Beacon/Shaw:

  • Rob Sand (D): 53, Zach Lahn (R): 44.

• KS-Gov: Global Strategy Group for the Democratic Attorneys General Association:

  • Cindy Holscher (D): 49, Ty Masterson (R): 46.

• ME-Gov: Fabrizio/Impact:

  • Hannah Pingree (D): 52, Bobby Charles (R): 39, Rick Bennett (I): 6.

• PA-Gov: Bravo Group for PennLive:

  • Josh Shapiro (D-inc): 55, Stacy Garrity (R): 28.

  • Aug.: 56-25 Shapiro.

• TX-Gov: Beacon/Shaw:

  • Greg Abbott (R-inc): 52, Gina Hinojosa (D): 47.

• NY-17: Emerson College for PIX11 News:

  • Cait Conley (D): 48, Mike Lawler (R-inc): 46.

• NY-23: Cygnal for Nick Langworthy:

  • Langworthy (R-inc): 54, Aaron Gies (D): 33.

• VA-01: The Washington Post/George Mason University/Braun Research:

  • Shannon Taylor (D): 50, Rob Wittman (R-inc): 46.

• VA-05: WaPo/GMU/Braun:

  • John McGuire (R-inc): 51, Tom Perriello (D): 45.

• VA-05: Expedition Strategies for Perriello:

  • McGuire (R-inc): 46, Perriello (D): 45, Cooke Harvey (I): 6.

• WA-03: DHM Research for Oregon Public Broadcasting:

  • John Braun (R): 48, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-inc): 47.

• TX-15: Normington, Petts & Associates for House Majority PAC:

  • Bobby Pulido (D): 54, Monica De La Cruz (R-inc): 41.

  • July: 51-45 Pulido.

• KS-AG: GSG for the Democratic Attorneys General Association:

  • Chris Mann (D): 47, Kris Kobach (R-inc): 46.

• OH Ballot - Issue 3 (voter ID): Suffolk University for USA Today:

  • Yes: 61, No: 31.