NY-AG: Democratic Attorney General Letitia James, who is running for reelection, has a new case on her hands: the disastrous Cornell rape case, which has been at the top of just about everyone's minds in previous days. Gov. Kathy Hochul appointed James and dismissed Tompkins County DA Matthew Van Houten.
Those Beacon/Shaw polls for Texas and Iowa are very encouraging. I really enjoyed the crossover "Strength in Numbers/Downballot" podcast from yesterday with Elliot/David going in detail over how the polls work.
The DCCC has added 8 seats to their target list, some of which are Trump +20 seats. The full list:
- KS-2
- MI-1
- NC-13
- NJ-2
- OK-5
- TX-9
- VA-6
- WA-5
That seats as red as these are being targeted is a sign that either the Dems are too ambitious, or the GOP is facing a bloodbath, the likes of which we have not seen for some time.
What are the media markets like for these seats, except for NJ, probably on the cheaper side and good to try for another House seat in Kansas with a close Senate race.
On Bluesky I heard an argument that NJ-02 might be winnable in part due to the tourism heat death from places like Canada. Some places like Cape May in the district are apparently heavily reliant on that tourism dollar.
No way to know until the polls close, but the DCCC wouldn't add these without some amount of district-level polling showing opportunities. Whether those polls are right or not...again, no way to know until we start counting votes.
KS-2, MI-1, and NC-13 are all reach seats but have something in common: They shift dramatically to the left when Democrats perform well at the top of the ticket. Given that Democrats are expected to perform strongly across the board in Michigan, a strong candidate could make MI-1 a sleeper flip, especially due to the recent trade war with Canada. Same with NC-13 if Cooper wipes the floor with Whatley. KS-2 would've voted Democratic in the 2022 governor's race even with a small victory margin of ~2%, and given that Hamilton is making the senate race competitive, he could have coattails that make KS-2 flip.
TX-9 is one of the gerrymandered districts and would've voted Republican in the 2018 senate race by only 0.9%. In this environment with Talarico at the top of the ticket, it's not unreasonable to think it could flip.
WA-5 only voted for Trump by 10.7 points in 2024, a margin that is definitely not safe enough in this political environment.
In a typical environment like 2020, NJ-2 only voted for Trump by 5 points. It did vote for Ciattarelli by about 7.4% in the 2025 governor election despite Sherill's landslide, but that's not a margin that makes one completely safe either, and Cory Booker running against token opposition will produce a top of the ballot performance that'll make life even harder for Republicans
OK-5 is definitely pushing it but it did split evenly in the 2022 governor's election, so if the Dems can reach a similar top of the ballot performance this year it has the potential to be a sleeper flip.
VA-6 feels too conservative to flip, though. Even in Spanberger's 2025 landslide it still voted for the Republican by about 16.6 points. The political environment has deteriorated so much that it's possible Dems could match and exceed Spanberger's performance statewide even in an election year with higher turnout, but personally I wouldn't really put it on my "races to watch" list unless there are specific dynamics about the race I'm unfamiliar with.
Tough races in many places across the country. Partly due to the neglect of voter rights and access for our best supporters- Blacks, Browns, Poor Whites. Democrats must realize that they will face a mean backlash if they don't expand voter access and produce reforms that lower the cost of living. People are impatient today. Two easy reforms that Dems can do in the blue states are 1)universal vote by mail- it boosts voter turnout and saves millions of tax dollars every election cycle, needed for universal voluntary All Day kindergarten and universal Pre-K education (helps women) 2)combining the local elections with the even year midterm elections- boosts voter turnout, saves millions of tax dollars every election cycle, and results in more women and more minorities being elected to local offices.
Every blue state should adopt the proposed voter reforms in the John Lewis Voting Rights Act and in the voting rights act proposed by former Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Thank you for the great information. I am a small donor who gives a lot for being a middle-class retiree and your info helps guide my giving.
Mike, do you have a citation for savings from mail ballots. We've tried to sketch that out in our county as a thought exercise and we don't see the savings. Perhaps because of a smaller population.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/01/nyregion/letitia-james-cornell-rape-prosecutor.html
NY-AG: Democratic Attorney General Letitia James, who is running for reelection, has a new case on her hands: the disastrous Cornell rape case, which has been at the top of just about everyone's minds in previous days. Gov. Kathy Hochul appointed James and dismissed Tompkins County DA Matthew Van Houten.
BREAKING: Andrew Cuomo announces last minute independent bid for Attorney General
https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/2106006819353305459
INDIANA POLL — Secretary of State
🟥 Max Engling: 38%
🟦 Beau Bayh: 37%
🟨 Laura Shillings: 6%
⬜️ Greg Ballard: 5%
—
Tarrance Group (R) | 9/27–30 | 600 LV
Source: @adamwren
Those Beacon/Shaw polls for Texas and Iowa are very encouraging. I really enjoyed the crossover "Strength in Numbers/Downballot" podcast from yesterday with Elliot/David going in detail over how the polls work.
https://rollcall.com/2026/10/02/house-democrats-target-list-midterm-elections-2/
The DCCC has added 8 seats to their target list, some of which are Trump +20 seats. The full list:
- KS-2
- MI-1
- NC-13
- NJ-2
- OK-5
- TX-9
- VA-6
- WA-5
That seats as red as these are being targeted is a sign that either the Dems are too ambitious, or the GOP is facing a bloodbath, the likes of which we have not seen for some time.
Thoughts?
What are the media markets like for these seats, except for NJ, probably on the cheaper side and good to try for another House seat in Kansas with a close Senate race.
On Bluesky I heard an argument that NJ-02 might be winnable in part due to the tourism heat death from places like Canada. Some places like Cape May in the district are apparently heavily reliant on that tourism dollar.
I'm skeptical. Van Drew is more popular than his party.
I wonder if him being a party switcher makes people in his district think he's somehow better than the average Republican?
No way to know until the polls close, but the DCCC wouldn't add these without some amount of district-level polling showing opportunities. Whether those polls are right or not...again, no way to know until we start counting votes.
Best chance among that group is probably TX 9.
I’d say WA-5. The Republican got under 50% in the top 2 primary
KS-2, MI-1, and NC-13 are all reach seats but have something in common: They shift dramatically to the left when Democrats perform well at the top of the ticket. Given that Democrats are expected to perform strongly across the board in Michigan, a strong candidate could make MI-1 a sleeper flip, especially due to the recent trade war with Canada. Same with NC-13 if Cooper wipes the floor with Whatley. KS-2 would've voted Democratic in the 2022 governor's race even with a small victory margin of ~2%, and given that Hamilton is making the senate race competitive, he could have coattails that make KS-2 flip.
TX-9 is one of the gerrymandered districts and would've voted Republican in the 2018 senate race by only 0.9%. In this environment with Talarico at the top of the ticket, it's not unreasonable to think it could flip.
WA-5 only voted for Trump by 10.7 points in 2024, a margin that is definitely not safe enough in this political environment.
In a typical environment like 2020, NJ-2 only voted for Trump by 5 points. It did vote for Ciattarelli by about 7.4% in the 2025 governor election despite Sherill's landslide, but that's not a margin that makes one completely safe either, and Cory Booker running against token opposition will produce a top of the ballot performance that'll make life even harder for Republicans
OK-5 is definitely pushing it but it did split evenly in the 2022 governor's election, so if the Dems can reach a similar top of the ballot performance this year it has the potential to be a sleeper flip.
VA-6 feels too conservative to flip, though. Even in Spanberger's 2025 landslide it still voted for the Republican by about 16.6 points. The political environment has deteriorated so much that it's possible Dems could match and exceed Spanberger's performance statewide even in an election year with higher turnout, but personally I wouldn't really put it on my "races to watch" list unless there are specific dynamics about the race I'm unfamiliar with.
Tough races in many places across the country. Partly due to the neglect of voter rights and access for our best supporters- Blacks, Browns, Poor Whites. Democrats must realize that they will face a mean backlash if they don't expand voter access and produce reforms that lower the cost of living. People are impatient today. Two easy reforms that Dems can do in the blue states are 1)universal vote by mail- it boosts voter turnout and saves millions of tax dollars every election cycle, needed for universal voluntary All Day kindergarten and universal Pre-K education (helps women) 2)combining the local elections with the even year midterm elections- boosts voter turnout, saves millions of tax dollars every election cycle, and results in more women and more minorities being elected to local offices.
Every blue state should adopt the proposed voter reforms in the John Lewis Voting Rights Act and in the voting rights act proposed by former Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Thank you for the great information. I am a small donor who gives a lot for being a middle-class retiree and your info helps guide my giving.
Mike, do you have a citation for savings from mail ballots. We've tried to sketch that out in our county as a thought exercise and we don't see the savings. Perhaps because of a smaller population.
Top GOP super PAC Senate Leadership Fund pausing ad campaign in NC's Senate race AND launching a new 7-figure campaign in Kansas Senate.