Morning Digest: Dick Durbin announces retirement after four decades in Congress

The departure of an Illinois institution opens the door to an intense primary to succeed him

Illinois Sen. Dick Durbin (credit: Dick Durbin Facebook)

Leading Off

IL-Sen

Sen. Dick Durbin said Wednesday that he will not seek a sixth term next year, a long-anticipated announcement that Durbin's fellow Democrats in Illinois have been eagerly awaiting for months.

While prominent politicians all held off on launching campaigns as the 80-year-old incumbent was deliberating his future and, in his words, "taking nourishment," several officeholders have been preparing for his departure. One of them, Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton, announced she was running early Thursday, and we’ll have more on her entry in our next Digest.

Much of the chatter about future candidates has centered around a trio of U.S. House members: Reps. Robin Kelly, Raja Krishnamoorthi, and Lauren Underwood. Krishnamoorthi ended March with a massive $19 million war chest in his House account that he could use for a Senate bid, a sum that would give him a big head start over any potential rivals. But whoever wins the primary will be the favorite in the general election in this Democratic-friendly state.

Wednesday's announcement from Durbin, who is the number-two Democrat in the Senate, will mark the end of a career that began over half a century ago.

Durbin's first job in politics began when he became legal counsel to then-Lt. Gov. Paul Simon in 1969. Three years later, he assumed the same role for the Judiciary Committee in the Illinois Senate.

Durbin's quest to become a state senator in his own right ended with his narrow loss to a Republican incumbent in 1976. His next effort went no better: Two years later, he served as the Democrats' nominee for lieutenant governor on a ticket with state Comptroller Michael Bakalis, but the pair lost badly to the Republican team of Gov. James Thompson and Lt. Gov. Dave O'Neal.

It was during these years of setbacks that Durbin became a co-owner of the popular Crows Mill Pub in the state capital of Springfield, an experience he'd call a "crash course" in business. The future senator and his co-owners sold the bar, which didn't do as well as they'd hoped, in 1981, a decision that came a year before he finally achieved his political breakthrough.

Durbin challenged Republican Rep. Paul Findley in the 1982 midterms in the now-defunct 20th Congressional District, a sprawling constituency in the central part of the state that Democratic map makers had just revamped to weaken the 11-term incumbent. Findley had made a name for himself outside of Illinois as a critic of Israel's government, and angry donors helped power Durbin's fundraising.

The Democrat, who also benefited from President Ronald Reagan's unpopularity at the time, prevailed by a narrow margin of just 50.4-49.6 in what turned out to be the last close race of his career. Durbin decisively won reelection six times in the 20th District.

During his time in the House, one of his biggest legislative accomplishments came when he authored the landmark 1987 bill that barred commercial airline passengers from smoking on short flights. Those rules were later extended to cover all flights and helped usher in smoking bans in other public facilities.

In 1996, Durbin sought a promotion to the Senate when Simon, his old boss, retired. The congressman, who had the support of the outgoing incumbent and the party establishment, scored a decisive 65-30 win in the primary against former Treasurer Pat Quinn, who would later serve as governor. But while both parties anticipated a general election in what was still a competitive state, voters in the Republican primary had other ideas.

In that contest, state Rep. Al Salvi, who was an ardent opponent of abortion rights, unexpectedly defeated Lt. Gov. Bob Kustra, the choice of the GOP establishment. Durbin went on to beat Salvi 56-41 as President Bill Clinton was carrying Illinois by a similar 54-37 spread. But the night wasn't all good for Democrats in the Land of Lincoln: Republican John Shimkus, whom Durbin had easily beaten in 1992, narrowly flipped his old House seat and would remain in office until he retired in 2021.

Durbin never had trouble holding onto his seat, which let him focus on gaining influence in the Senate. Durbin became the second-ranking Democrat, or "whip," in the chamber following the 2004 elections after Nevada's Harry Reid became the party's leader, though the Illinoisan was immediately overshadowed by his junior home state colleague, Barack Obama. (Obama was one of six senators who held the state's other seat during Durbin's long tenure.)

There was talk for years that Durbin and New York Sen. Chuck Schumer would compete for the top job should Reid either lose reelection or retire. Things even got so tense during Reid's challenging 2010 reelection campaign that Durbin thought about moving out of the townhouse he shared with Schumer.

But Reid, whose victory that year temporarily rendered such chatter moot, used his 2015 retirement announcement to designate Schumer his successor, a move Durbin did not challenge.

Instead, recognizing he was unlikely to rise further in the leadership, Durbin considered running for governor in 2018, but he decided to remain in the Senate and continue serving as whip. He also became chair of the Judiciary Committee after his party returned to power in 2021, though he frustrated progressives by allowing Republicans to block many judicial nominees for their home states through a tradition known as the "blue slip."

Last month, Durbin once again infuriated his party—this time enraging a broad cross-section of all ideological persuasions—when he joined with Schumer and eight other Democrats to advance a Republican bill to fund the government. That vote, as well as his minimal fundraising through March, only intensified talk that Durbin would retire, though the five-term senator only finally confirmed his departure on Wednesday.

The Downballot Podcast

Our must-have new data set is here!

The Downballot is thrilled to announce the publication of the newest edition of our most widely used—and beloved—set of data: our calculations of the 2024 presidential election results for all 435 congressional districts. Naturally, we're talking all about it on this week's edition of our podcast, including why it's such a herculean undertaking and what the numbers tell us. Most important of all, the data points the way to the races that will form the central battleground in the clash for control of the House next year.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also discuss the fallout from Dick Durbin's retirement in Illinois; a favorable ruling for Democrat Allison Riggs in the never-ending litigation over last year's race for the North Carolina Supreme Court; and why Donald Trump's hilarious decision to issue a dual endorsement in Arizona is bad news for Republicans.

The Downballot podcast comes out every Thursday morning everywhere you listen to podcasts. Click here to subscribe and to find a complete transcript!

Senate

ME-Sen

Former congressional staffer Jordan Wood on Wednesday became the first notable Maine Democrat to announce a campaign against Republican Sen. Susan Collins.

Wood is a former official at End Citizens United, a prominent liberal organization with a history of spending significant sums in both Democratic primaries and general elections. In 2020, he became chief of staff to then-Rep. Katie Porter of California, who was a favorite of national progressives. Wood, who moved back to Maine with his husband the next year, would be the state's first LGBTQ senator.

The new candidate kicked off his bid by arguing that Collins has "never led on reforms and changing our political system." Wood also faulted the five-term incumbent for failing to oppose the Trump administration, saying, "I think we need to have a real opposition majority in Congress that's going to stand up to what I believe is an authoritarian president who's stomping on our rights."

Governors

AZ-Gov

Wealthy Arizona businesswoman Karrin Taylor Robson now has to share Donald Trump's endorsement with Rep. Andy Biggs, but she at least has a big fundraising advantage over her Republican primary rival. Both, however, badly trail Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs.

Robson outraised Biggs $860,000 to $230,000 during the first quarter of the year, and she ended March with a $750,000 to $190,000 cash-on-hand advantage. Robson, who self-funded over $15 million during her unsuccessful primary campaign for governor in 2022, did not do any self-funding during this period.

Hobbs, meanwhile, took in $1.1 million and has $4 million banked to defend herself—and unlike Robson and Biggs, she does not face serious intraparty opposition.

GA-Gov

Savannah Mayor Van Johnson did not rule out seeking the Democratic nomination for governor when the Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Adam Van Brimmer asked him about the idea on Tuesday, though Johnson doesn't sound likely to go for it.

"We'll see," the mayor replied to Van Brimmer's question about his interest in running for a statewide post next year. Johnson went on to say that the party's eventual nominee for governor "doesn't need to be me, it just needs to be someone I can support."

House

AZ-05

Former Arizona Cardinals kicker Jay Feely announced Tuesday that he would run to succeed Rep. Andy Biggs, a fellow Arizona Republican who is giving up the 5th District to run for governor. Calculations from The Downballot show that Donald Trump prevailed 59-39 last year in the 5th, a longtime conservative stronghold in the eastern Phoenix area.

Feely began playing in the NFL in 1999, but his poor performance in one crucial 2005 game for the New York Giants made him the target of a mocking Saturday Night Live skit. (Feely, who was portrayed by comedian Dane Cook, would later say the sendup helped him "lose some of that fear of failure.") The kicker, who was with the Cardinals from 2010 through the 2013 season, left the league soon after and became a commentator for CBS.

Feely has since established himself as an ardent supporter of Trump, with whom he's sometimes golfed. He also has a fan in Ohio Rep. Jim Jordan, the far-right House Freedom Caucus figure whom Feely's team says "enthusiastically introduced" him to House colleagues last month.

Several other Republicans are looking to replace Biggs. Construction contractor Daniel Keenan, whom we hadn't previously written about, entered the race in late February and self-funded $250,000. Former state Rep. Travis Grantham also began running earlier this month.

Former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, meanwhile, did not rule out a bid in a new statement to 12News' Brahm Resnik. Lamb, who lost last year's Senate primary to Kari Lake, said, "At this time, I'm focusing on my family and wife as we find the right path moving forward."

Resnik adds that state Sen. Jake Hoffman, who leads the state's Freedom Caucus affiliate, is also considering. There's no quote from Hoffman, though, who is an ardent Biggs supporter in the race for governor.

CA-40

Nonprofit head Nina Linh said Wednesday that she would run as a Democrat against Republican Rep. Young Kim in California's 40th District in eastern Orange County. Linh, a former TV producer, runs a group dedicated to "prevent[ing] youth initiation into drugs and recidivism."

Another Democrat, retired firefighter Joe Kerr, also confirmed to Roll Call's Daniela Altimari that he'll seek a rematch against Kim. The incumbent defeated Kerr 55-45 last year as Donald Trump was carrying her constituency by a smaller 49-47 margin. Kerr, who was outraised 10-1, predicted to Altimari that he'd have the money to win this time.

Two other Democrats were already in the race: art gallery owner Esther Kim Varet and Christina Gagnier, who is a former member of the Chino Valley school board.

IA-01

Healthcare worker Travis Terrell told the Des Moines Register this week that he would challenge GOP Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks, which makes Terrell the first Democrat to announce a bid for Iowa's 1st District. Terrell, who said he'll campaign as a progressive, does not appear to have sought office before.

Miller-Meeks fended off former Democratic state Rep. Christina Bohannan by just a 50.0-49.8 margin last year even as Donald Trump was carrying her southeastern Iowa constituency 54-45, according to calculations by The Downballot. Bohannan, who previously challenged Miller-Meeks in 2022, does not appear to have publicly discussed whether she'll try a third time.

IL-09

Democratic Rep. Jan Schakowsky will announce her retirement on May 5, Politico reported on Wednesday, but the longtime congresswoman took exception to the story after it was published.

Schakowsky responded to the article by denying that she'd already decided not to seek a 15th term in her reliably blue constituency, though the 80-year-old incumbent confirmed that she would reveal her plans on that date.

Political commentator Kat Abughazaleh previously announced a bid in late March and said that she would run in the primary for Illinois' 9th District no matter what Schakowsky did. The newcomer quickly raised $380,000, outstripping the $213,000 Schakowsky raised during the entire first quarter.

But Abughazaleh will almost certainly face serious intraparty opposition in the northern Chicago area. Politico writes that Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss and state Sen. Laura Fine are both "widely expected" to run to succeed Schakowsky. Biss lost the 2018 Democratic nod for governor to JB Pritzker, who lost to Schakowsky in the primary when the 9th District came open in 1998.

KY-06

Republican state Rep. Ryan Dotson announced Tuesday that he would run for Kentucky's 6th District, a declaration that came just half an hour after GOP Rep. Andy Barr said he would run for the Senate. The Louisville Courier Journal characterizes Dotson as an ardent social conservative who has been "on the front lines of the culture wars" in the state capitol.

Several other Republicans also expressed interest in replacing Barr in February when news of his Senate plans first surfaced, though none were as eager to launch as Dotson. That's likely to change, though, now that the congressman has finally made his move.

Donald Trump carried this central Kentucky constituency by a wide 57-42 margin last year, but Democrats may still have an opening in a good year: Gov. Andy Beshear won the district by double digits in both 2019 and 2023, and Barr won reelection by a narrow 51-48 margin during the 2018 blue wave.

NC-01

​​Rocky Mount Mayor Sandy Roberson announced Wednesday that he'd challenge Democratic Rep. Don Davis and pledged to self-fund $2 million to begin his campaign. Roberson launched his effort with an endorsement from Army veteran Laurie Buckhout, a fellow Republican who hadn't previously said whether she'd seek a rematch against Davis following her tight loss last year.

In 2022, Roberson ran for the previous version of North Carolina's 1st District but found himself in an expensive primary against 2020 nominee Sandy Smith. National Republicans took the unusual step of airing ads attacking Smith, whom multiple family members had accused of physical abuse, but she still beat Roberson 31-27. Davis went on to defeat Smith in the fall.

Republicans gerrymandered Davis' district the following year, and Buckhout's victory over Smith in the 2024 primary left the party optimistic that it could beat him. The incumbent, though, held on 50-48 even as Donald Trump carried his constituency 51-48. That close victory prevented the GOP from winning Davis' turf, which includes communities in the northeastern corner of the state, for the first time since 1898.

TX-18

Zoe Cadore, who works as a lobbyist for an energy company, became the latest Democrat to enter the special election for Texas' 18th District on Tuesday. Cadore, a former congressional staffer who was Miss Houston in 2013, is competing with several other candidates in the Nov. 4 all-party race to replace the late Rep. Sylvester Turner in this safely Democratic seat.

Judges

MI Supreme Court

Gov. Gretchen Whitmer announced Wednesday that she was appointing Court of Appeals Judge Noah Hood, a fellow Democrat, to replace Republican Elizabeth Clement on the Michigan Supreme Court.

Clement had announced her resignation in February, just one month after her colleagues reappointed her chief justice—a decision that allowed Democrats to extend their majority from 5-2 to 6-1.

Hood, who will serve out the remainder of Clement's term, will be up for a full eight-year term next year. Democratic Justice Megan Cavanagh, who succeeded Clement as chief justice this month, will also be up for reelection. However, the soonest Republicans could take back the court would be in 2028, when two other Democrats will be on the ballot.

NC Supreme Court

A federal appeals court issued an order on Tuesday evening barring North Carolina election officials from discarding any votes in last year's race for the state Supreme Court while Democratic Justice Allison Riggs challenges a recent ruling from the state's top court.

In that ruling, a majority of four Republican justices directed that several hundred votes cast by voters who've never lived in North Carolina be thrown out. They also ordered as many as 7,000 votes cast by overseas voters who did not provide copies of their IDs to be discarded as well, unless those voters furnish copies during a designated "cure" period. Both groups of voters had complied with state law as it stood before the election.

Riggs, who emerged as the winner in December over Republican Jefferson Griffin by 734 votes after three separate counts, immediately asked a federal court to prevent any voters from potentially having their votes excluded. However, U.S. District Court Judge Richard Myers declined to block the Supreme Court's order from taking effect, though he ordered election officials not to certify any results.

The Fourth Circuit, in a 2-1 decision, overruled Myers on Tuesday, forbidding administrators from removing votes from the count or starting any cure period. As a result, the status quo will be preserved while Riggs challenges the Supreme Court's ruling on the grounds that it violates the federal Constitution's guarantees of due process and equal protection of the law.

That case will proceed before Myers, though it could wind up back before the Fourth Circuit and ultimately be resolved by the U.S. Supreme Court.

WI Supreme Court

Clark County Judge Lyndsey Boon Brunette is considering challenging conservative Justice Rebecca Bradley next year, WisPolitics reports. Brunette was previously elected as a Democrat to serve as district attorney for the county, which is in the central part of the state.

Judge Chris Taylor, a former Democratic state legislator from the Madison area, has also talked about opposing Bradley in this officially nonpartisan race. Unless just two candidates file, a nonpartisan primary would be held in February, with the top two vote-getters advancing to a general election next April.

Legislatures

Special Elections

Republican Amy Romano defeated Democrat Mike Duncan 53-47 in Tuesday's special election for Connecticut's 113th State House District, though her margin of victory was several points below Donald Trump's 55-44 performance last year.

Democrats will hold a 102-49 majority once Romano is sworn in, with no more vacancies in either chamber of the legislature.

Mayors & County Leaders

New York, NY Mayor

City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams earned high-profile endorsements this week from Attorney General Letitia James and District Council 37, the municipal workers' union that has long been an influential labor group in New York City politics. DC 37 is the first major union to take sides against former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who is the frontrunner in the June 24 Democratic primary.

Adams also earned the support of two other unions: Unite Here Local 100 and Communications Workers of America Local 1180, which respectively represent hospitality and social service employees.

DC 37 urged its supporters to rank Adams first in the ranked-choice primary, with Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani second and state Sen. Zellnor Myrie third. James and the other two unions, by contrast, picked Adams as their sole candidate.