500k is going to be tough. The current request advantage is D+528.3k & increasing by a couple hundred per day. The return rate for Democrats would have to be over 90% with Republicans having an equal or lower return rate. Not impossible but we won't know if that # will be hit until the week before the election.
The 2020 spread was 88%-79% favoring Democrats. Assuming both parties add 50,000 requests and replicate 2020 return rates, you'd get a firewall of ~513,000. Lots of uncertainty for sure, but Democrats are outpacing Republicans by nearly nine percentage points, so 500,000 definitely seems possible.
Depending on how you define Democratic "firewall", it’s worth considering that Independents account for a significant part of the Early Vote – and Independents are trending Blue. We may think of those extra votes as a "hidden firewall".
For the purposes of the "Pennsylvania Mail Firewall", only the Democratic Ballots vs Republican Ballots is being counted.
A non-insignificant # of R ballots will vote for a random D. The current theory is mail-in ballot Indys will split 70D-30R. Compute the "hidden firewall" at your own peril. I'm staying away from that.
1.013 Million PA Democrats have requested mail ballots. That's over 25% of registered Democrats in the Commonwealth. Still 12 days to request a ballot.
🦅 Pennsylvania - 2024 General Election - Day 6
📥 536,212 votes cast
🔵 DEM: 358,703 - 35.4% returned
🔴 GOP: 130,076 - 26.8% returned
🟡 IND: 47,433 - 23.5% returned
VBM Splits: 🔵 66.9% / 🔴 24.3% / 🟡 8.8%
🔷 DEM firewall: +228,627
📈 Return Edge: D+8.6
https://x.com/blockedfreq/status/1846197211647947140?s=61&t=_oLmDamLuLVUMclqY2xEGw
The request advantage is now D+528,355. 9% of registered PA Democrats have now voted.
The Democratic firewall needs to be at roughly 500k; is that correct?
Depends who you ask. General sentiment is at least 400k, but higher is better
390k is being thrown around but I personally am looking for 450k.
So 450-500k should be our 'goal' so to speak
500k is going to be tough. The current request advantage is D+528.3k & increasing by a couple hundred per day. The return rate for Democrats would have to be over 90% with Republicans having an equal or lower return rate. Not impossible but we won't know if that # will be hit until the week before the election.
The 2020 spread was 88%-79% favoring Democrats. Assuming both parties add 50,000 requests and replicate 2020 return rates, you'd get a firewall of ~513,000. Lots of uncertainty for sure, but Democrats are outpacing Republicans by nearly nine percentage points, so 500,000 definitely seems possible.
Depending on how you define Democratic "firewall", it’s worth considering that Independents account for a significant part of the Early Vote – and Independents are trending Blue. We may think of those extra votes as a "hidden firewall".
For the purposes of the "Pennsylvania Mail Firewall", only the Democratic Ballots vs Republican Ballots is being counted.
A non-insignificant # of R ballots will vote for a random D. The current theory is mail-in ballot Indys will split 70D-30R. Compute the "hidden firewall" at your own peril. I'm staying away from that.
Fair enough. Best to keep the terms pure and the calculus simple.
From my canvassing experience, LOTS of Dems are voting early by mail.
That's good news
1.013 Million PA Democrats have requested mail ballots. That's over 25% of registered Democrats in the Commonwealth. Still 12 days to request a ballot.
Thanks for the numbers