500k is going to be tough. The current request advantage is D+528.3k & increasing by a couple hundred per day. The return rate for Democrats would have to be over 90% with Republicans having an equal or lower return rate. Not impossible but we won't know if that # will be hit until the week before the election.
500k is going to be tough. The current request advantage is D+528.3k & increasing by a couple hundred per day. The return rate for Democrats would have to be over 90% with Republicans having an equal or lower return rate. Not impossible but we won't know if that # will be hit until the week before the election.
The 2020 spread was 88%-79% favoring Democrats. Assuming both parties add 50,000 requests and replicate 2020 return rates, you'd get a firewall of ~513,000. Lots of uncertainty for sure, but Democrats are outpacing Republicans by nearly nine percentage points, so 500,000 definitely seems possible.
Depending on how you define Democratic "firewall", itтАЩs worth considering that Independents account for a significant part of the Early Vote тАУ and Independents are trending Blue. We may think of those extra votes as a "hidden firewall".
For the purposes of the "Pennsylvania Mail Firewall", only the Democratic Ballots vs Republican Ballots is being counted.
A non-insignificant # of R ballots will vote for a random D. The current theory is mail-in ballot Indys will split 70D-30R. Compute the "hidden firewall" at your own peril. I'm staying away from that.
1.013 Million PA Democrats have requested mail ballots. That's over 25% of registered Democrats in the Commonwealth. Still 12 days to request a ballot.
500k is going to be tough. The current request advantage is D+528.3k & increasing by a couple hundred per day. The return rate for Democrats would have to be over 90% with Republicans having an equal or lower return rate. Not impossible but we won't know if that # will be hit until the week before the election.
The 2020 spread was 88%-79% favoring Democrats. Assuming both parties add 50,000 requests and replicate 2020 return rates, you'd get a firewall of ~513,000. Lots of uncertainty for sure, but Democrats are outpacing Republicans by nearly nine percentage points, so 500,000 definitely seems possible.
Depending on how you define Democratic "firewall", itтАЩs worth considering that Independents account for a significant part of the Early Vote тАУ and Independents are trending Blue. We may think of those extra votes as a "hidden firewall".
For the purposes of the "Pennsylvania Mail Firewall", only the Democratic Ballots vs Republican Ballots is being counted.
A non-insignificant # of R ballots will vote for a random D. The current theory is mail-in ballot Indys will split 70D-30R. Compute the "hidden firewall" at your own peril. I'm staying away from that.
Fair enough. Best to keep the terms pure and the calculus simple.
From my canvassing experience, LOTS of Dems are voting early by mail.
That's good news
1.013 Million PA Democrats have requested mail ballots. That's over 25% of registered Democrats in the Commonwealth. Still 12 days to request a ballot.
Thanks for the numbers